Crypto World
Bitcoin (BTC) Holds Steady as Wall Street Analyst Projects 35% Market Crash Risk
TLDR
- Veteran analyst Ed Yardeni increased U.S. stock market crash probability from 20% to 35%
- Crude oil surpassing $100 per barrel drives inflation concerns and growth slowdown fears
- Bitcoin (BTC) maintains support around $67,000, showing resilience against declining equity markets
- NYDIG data reveals only 25% of Bitcoin price action correlates with traditional stock movements
- Leadership transition in Iran amplifies geopolitical tensions and market volatility
Prominent Wall Street analyst Ed Yardeni has dramatically increased his forecast for a potential U.S. stock market crash, raising the probability to 35% for the remainder of 2025 from his previous 20% estimate. Simultaneously, his outlook for a sustained market rally plummeted to merely 5%, down from 20%.
This revised forecast emerges as crude oil prices breached the $100 per barrel threshold. Elevated energy costs present a dual threat: amplifying inflationary pressures while simultaneously hampering economic expansion, creating headwinds for both equity and cryptocurrency markets.
Yardeni articulated the situation bluntly: “The U.S. economy and stock market are stuck between Iran and a hard place. So is the Fed.”
Tensions between Washington and Tehran continue intensifying. Following Iran’s refusal to de-escalate, President Trump has warned of additional military action. The Islamic Republic recently appointed Mojtaba Khamenei, son of the late Ali Khamenei who perished in a U.S. operation, as its new supreme leader. Senior Iranian security officials have declared that Trump “must pay the price” for the ongoing conflict.
Bitcoin hovered around $67,378 during Monday’s trading session, registering a modest 1% gain over the preceding 24-hour period. This represents notable stability considering the volatility gripping conventional financial markets.
S&P 500 futures plummeted over 2% during Asian market hours. The VIX volatility index, commonly referred to as Wall Street’s fear gauge, reached levels not witnessed since the tariff-induced turbulence of April 2024. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar recorded its strongest weekly performance in twelve months.
International markets experienced severe disruption. The MSCI global equity index tumbled 3.7% during the prior week. South Korean markets continue struggling to recover from their historic two-day collapse. Hedge funds have substantially increased short exposure across U.S. equity exchange-traded funds.
Market participants have also adjusted Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, now anticipating the next reduction in September. Prior to the conflict eruption in late February, traders had completely priced in a July rate cut.
Bitcoin’s Price Is Not Fully Tied to Stocks
Analysis conducted by NYDIG indicates that approximately 25% of Bitcoin’s price fluctuations can be attributed to correlation with U.S. equity markets. The remaining 75% stems from cryptocurrency-specific market dynamics.
Greg Cipolaro, NYDIG’s research director, explained that Bitcoin’s recent parallel movement with software sector stocks reflects mutual sensitivity to prevailing economic conditions rather than fundamental structural linkage.
Nevertheless, Bitcoin has consistently declined alongside equities throughout every significant risk-aversion episode since 2020.
Crypto-Linked Stocks Also Feel the Pressure
Equities connected to the cryptocurrency sector have experienced substantial volatility as investor caution intensifies. Bitcoin mining operation Core Scientific liquidated portions of its Bitcoin reserves while transitioning toward an artificial intelligence-centric business model. Share prices declined around the divestment period.
Ether gained 2.3% to approximately $1,981. Solana advanced 1.8% to $83.69 but remains the poorest performer among major cryptocurrencies on a seven-day basis, still registering a 1.5% weekly decline.
Ten-year Treasury yields surged six basis points as bond markets incorporated higher inflation expectations stemming from elevated petroleum costs.
The S&P 500 declined 2% during the previous week, demonstrating relative outperformance compared to international counterparts, partially due to America’s substantial domestic energy production capacity.
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For years, liquidity mining has been one of the core engines powering growth in decentralized finance. Protocols reward users with tokens in exchange for providing liquidity to pools, helping bootstrap markets and maintain healthy trading conditions. While effective, the model also has drawbacks: capital inefficiency, impermanent loss, and the need to lock funds directly into liquidity pools.
A new concept is emerging that could reshape this system — Synthetic Liquidity Mining.
Instead of requiring users to deposit assets into liquidity pools, this model allows them to earn incentives through derivatives exposure that mirrors liquidity provision. In other words, users can simulate the economic behavior of liquidity providers without actually supplying liquidity.
The Problem With Traditional Liquidity Mining
Traditional liquidity mining helped spark the DeFi boom around the time of the DeFi Summer. However, over time, several structural weaknesses became clear:
1. Capital Inefficiency
Liquidity providers must lock assets into pools, which means their capital cannot easily be used elsewhere. Large amounts of idle liquidity sit inside protocols simply to qualify for rewards.
2. Impermanent Loss
Providing liquidity to automated market makers like Uniswap exposes users to price divergence between pooled assets, which can reduce returns even when incentives are offered.
3. Mercenary Capital
Many liquidity miners are purely incentive-driven. They enter when rewards are high and leave when emissions drop, creating unstable liquidity for protocols.
These limitations are pushing DeFi designers to rethink how incentives should work.
What Is Synthetic Liquidity Mining?
Synthetic Liquidity Mining allows users to earn protocol incentives by taking derivative positions that replicate the payoff structure of providing liquidity.
Instead of depositing tokens into a pool, users may:
-
Open synthetic LP positions
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Hold derivative tokens representing liquidity exposure
-
Trade perpetual or options-style contracts tied to pool performance
These instruments mirror the profit-and-loss dynamics of liquidity providers, including trading fees or pool performance, without requiring users to supply the actual assets.
Think of it as “LP exposure without LP capital.”
How It Works
A synthetic liquidity mining system typically includes three components:
1. Synthetic Liquidity Tokens
Protocols mint derivative tokens representing exposure to a liquidity pool’s performance.
For example:
Users buy or stake these tokens to gain exposure.
2. Derivative-Based Incentives
Rather than rewarding liquidity deposits, protocols distribute incentives to users who hold or trade these synthetic instruments.
Rewards may depend on:
-
Time held
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Position size
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Pool volatility
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Market demand
3. Hedged Liquidity Providers
Behind the scenes, the protocol or specialized market makers may provide the actual liquidity and hedge the exposure created by synthetic traders.
This creates a separation between:
Advantages of Synthetic Liquidity Mining
Greater Capital Efficiency
Users can gain liquidity exposure with significantly less capital compared to providing assets directly to pools.
Reduced Impermanent Loss Risk
Because positions are derivative-based, users may hedge or manage risk more dynamically.
Programmable Incentives
Protocols can design incentives around market conditions instead of relying solely on emissions.
New DeFi Trading Strategies
Synthetic LP exposure can become a tradable financial instrument, opening strategies such as:
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LP exposure arbitrage
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volatility trading
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liquidity speculation
Potential Use Cases
Liquidity Exposure Markets
Synthetic LP tokens could become tradable assets themselves, creating markets where traders speculate on pool performance.
Cross-Protocol Incentives
A protocol could incentivize liquidity for another platform by issuing synthetic exposure rather than moving capital.
Risk Hedging
Traditional liquidity providers might hedge their positions using synthetic contracts that offset impermanent loss.
Challenges and Risks
Despite its promise, Synthetic Liquidity Mining introduces new complexities.
Pricing Complexity
Accurately tracking LP performance requires robust pricing models and Oracle infrastructure.
Derivative Risk
Synthetic systems can introduce leverage, liquidation risks, and cascading market effects.
Smart Contract Complexity
Derivative protocols are often significantly more complex than basic AMMs, increasing potential attack surfaces.
The Bigger Picture
DeFi is gradually evolving from simple token incentives into full-fledged financial engineering. Synthetic Liquidity Mining represents a shift toward separating capital from exposure, allowing markets to allocate risk more efficiently.
In the long run, liquidity itself may become a tradable asset class, where participants choose between providing liquidity, speculating on it, or hedging it through derivatives.
If that future materializes, Synthetic Liquidity Mining could become one of the key mechanisms shaping the next generation of decentralized financial markets.
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Reform UK party leader Nigel Farage has invested 215,000 pounds (around $286,000) in Stack BTC, a London-listed Bitcoin treasury company chaired by former UK Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng, as the Reform UK leader deepens his ties to the crypto sector.
The investment gives Farage a 6.31% stake in the company through his media vehicle Thorn In The Side, according to a Monday release.
Stack said it raised $346,000 by issuing 5.2 million new shares at $0.65 each in a strategic funding round that included Farage and Blockchain.com. The company said Blockchain.com also entered a partnership to help deliver institutional-grade services for Stack’s planned Bitcoin (BTC) treasury.
“I have long been one of the UK’s few political advocates for Bitcoin, recognising the role digital currencies will play in the future of business and finance,” Farage said. “London and the UK has historically been the centre of the world’s financial markets, and I believe that we can and should be a major global hub for the crypto industry.”
He said he is “excited about Stack’s plans to acquire and grow British businesses, representing permanent, supportive and long-term capital.”
Stack raised $2.9 million in February
Stack, which trades on London’s Aquis exchange, said it raised about $2.9 million in February and holds 21 Bitcoin worth around $1.4 million at current prices, according to its website. The company purchased the BTC in one tranche on March 5. Kwarteng and his wife control about a 5.88% stake.
Farage has increasingly cast himself as one of the UK’s most outspoken political supporters of digital assets. In May 2025 at the Bitcoin conference in Las Vegas, Farage said Reform UK would accept crypto donations and introduce a “Cryptoassets and Digital Finance Bill” if the party wins control of government in the next general election, expected before August 2029.
Related: UK widens crypto reporting rules to cover domestic transactions
That push has coincided with growing controversy around crypto’s role in UK politics. Cointelegraph reported Thursday that Reform UK received another $4 million from Thailand-based crypto investor Christopher Harborne in late 2025, after an earlier $12 million donation that helped make him one of the party’s most significant financial backers.
The investment comes as the UK debates whether political parties should be allowed to accept crypto donations. On Dec. 2, officials were reported to be considering a ban, and on Feb. 26, security committee chair Matt Western called for a temporary moratorium until the Electoral Commission issues formal guidance.
Magazine: Did a Hong Kong fund kill Bitcoin? Bithumb’s ‘phantom’ BTC: Asia Express
Crypto World
Strategy (MSTR) added 17,994 bitcoin last week, bringing total holdings to 738,731 coins
Led by Executive Chairman Michael Saylor, Strategy (MSTR) made a massive bitcoin purchase last week.
The leading bitcoin treasury company added 17,994 bitcoin to its holdings for a total cost of $1.28 billion, or $70,946 per coin. The company stack now stands at 738,731 BTC acquired for $56.04 billion, or $75,862 per coin.
Bitcoin is currently trading just below $68,000.
Last week’s buys were mostly funded via $900 million in sales of common stock. The company also sold $377 million of its STRC preferred series of stock, according to a Monday morning filing.
MSTR shares are higher by 0.2% in pre-market trading.
After years of opposition to crypto mixers, the onchain services that obfuscate digital asset transactions, the U.S. Treasury Department now says they may have legitimate privacy uses as well as their much-trumpeted criminal applications.
In a report related to the implementation of the Genius Act, the Treasury acknowledged that mixing services can serve lawful purposes on public blockchains. These include shielding personal finances, business transactions and charitable donations from being publicly traceable. The department noted that privacy tools can coexist with compliance when properly designed, for example, through record-keeping or other safeguards.
“As consumers increase their use of digital assets for payments, individuals may want to use mixers to maintain more privacy of their consumer spending habits,” the Treasury noted in the report.
The mixers, which obscure the origin and destination of digital asset transactions by pooling users’ funds together, have long been controversial in Washington. In 2022, the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) blacklisted the Ethereum-based mixer Tornado Cash, accusing it of facilitating the laundering of billions in illicit crypto tied to North Korea’s Lazarus hacking group. The sanctions effectively barred Americans from using the tool and ignited one of the most contentious regulatory fights in crypto.
In 2025, the government removed Tornado Cash from the list following legal challenges and an appellate court decision questioning the Treasury’s authority to impose sanctions on open-source smart contracts. Although released on bail, Tornado Cash co-founder and developer Roman Storm still faces legal issues as prosecutors claim they have sufficient evidence to demonstrate he built features into the mixer knowing they would aid cybercriminals.
The report doesn’t abandon concerns about illicit finance. It highlights mixers as tools often used to obscure stolen funds and emphasizes the need for stronger anti-money laundering (AML) controls across digital assets. But it also states that privacy technology itself isn’t inherently illegal.
Beyond mixers, the report signals broader policy shifts. Treasury encourages Congress to clarify which decentralized finance (DeFi) actors should fall under AML obligations, explore digital-identity tools that enable compliance without excessive data collection, and consider new authorities allowing institutions to temporarily freeze suspicious digital assets.
Crypto exchange Bybit has reaffirmed its commitment to the Middle East amid escalating global conflict, announcing the appointment of a new country manager to increase its presence in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region.
Tensions in the Middle East escalated last month after the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran. In response, Iran retaliated against several neighboring countries, including the United Arab Emirates (UAE), the United Arab Emirates (UAE), where Bybit maintains a major regional presence.
Helen Liu, co-CEO of Bybit, said the company has no plans to scale back its Middle East operations in light of the conflict.
“Some companies are reassessing their Gulf exposure right now. We are doing the opposite. We are deepening our presence, our investment, and our commitment to this region,” she said.
“We continue to invest in local talent, regulatory compliance, and community partnerships. The UAE’s vision to become the world’s leading digital asset hub is not diminished by this crisis. If anything, the resilience this nation is showing only reinforces why we chose to build here.”
Cryptocurrencies are often used in times of crisis, as citizens look to preserve their assets amid fears of instability in traditional banking systems.
Iran’s leading crypto exchange Nobitex experienced a sharp rise in withdrawals soon after strikes on Tehran.
Bybit appoints new MENA country manager
Derek Dai has been appointed the new country manager for Bybit in the MENA region, the exchange announced. His role will include overseeing market expansion, regulatory collaboration, institutional partnerships and localized product development.
Related: UAE central bank says financial system stable amid missile and drone attacks
Bybit said it has also implemented several measures to protect its UAE-based employees, including daily check-ins, real-time safety confirmations and relocation or travel support.
Dai said the Middle East is becoming a pivotal region for the future of crypto. Over the coming months, Bybit will focus on expanding access to the United Arab Emirates dirham and forging partnerships with banks and payment providers.
“Our priority is to deepen collaboration with financial centers such as the DIFC [Dubai International Financial Centre], and the DMCC [Dubai Multi Commodities Centre],” he said.
Adding that Bybit also wants to strengthen “the infrastructure that connects digital assets with everyday financial services and advancing the development of tokenized real-world assets that bridge traditional finance and the digital asset economy.”
Roughly 1,800 crypto companies operate in the UAE, employing more than 8,600 people. Abu Dhabi, the UAE’s capital, also saw a 67% increase in new licenses issued in the ADGM financial free zone at the start of 2025 compared with 2024.
Magazine: The debate over Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is over: Benjamin Cowen
Australian crypto exchange BTC Markets has informed the country’s securities regulator, the Australian Securities and Investments Commission, of its plan to apply for a markets license that would enable regulated tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) to be offered to the public. CEO Lucas Dobbins articulated a vision of licensing infrastructure that permits certain tokenized assets to trade in a regulated environment, with the aim of a future where tokenized equities, bonds and RWAs sit alongside cryptocurrencies, markets run continuously, and settlement happens near-instantly. Dobbins highlighted that the current on-chain universe of tokenized assets—roughly $26 billion—represents a proof of concept rather than the full potential. He pointed to forecasts that tokenized markets could reach around $2 trillion by 2030, while research from the Boston Consulting Group has suggested a possible opportunity as high as $16 trillion. The momentum here is reinforced by statements that the on-ramp to regulated, compliant markets is now a practical objective rather than speculative theory, with major banks moving from pilot projects to product launches.
Key takeaways
- Australian regulator-facing exchange BTC Markets intends to pursue a markets license with ASIC to offer regulated tokenized RWAs, signaling a formal regulatory pathway for asset tokenization in Australia.
- The on-chain value of tokenized RWAs sits at about $26.5 billion, with Ethereum commanding the largest share at 57.4% of the market, excluding layer-2 and EVM platforms.
- Analysts project a broad spectrum of potential size for tokenized markets: around $2 trillion by 2030, and up to $16 trillion per the Boston Consulting Group, underscoring the scale of the opportunity.
- Tokenized RWAs are moving from theory to practice as institutions like BlackRock, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan push real products into the market, while exchanges such as Kraken and Robinhood have begun offering tokenized RWAs in 2025.
- Australia’s regulatory environment, deep capital markets and one of the world’s largest pension systems position the country to play a meaningful role in a next wave of tokenized finance, particularly in private markets, infrastructure investments, and fund distribution.
- Broader activity in the space includes Kraken’s xStocks platform and the xChange engine for tokenized stock trading, Robinhood’s tokenized stock initiatives in Europe, and Coinbase’s announced Coinbase Tokenize platform for RWAs.
Tickers mentioned: $ETH, $COIN
Market context: The move by BTC Markets aligns with a wider push across crypto and traditional finance toward regulated tokenized assets, supported by ongoing infrastructure development, larger institutional involvement, and clearer regulatory guidance in key markets. The activity also aligns with a trend where major exchanges and banks are exploring, piloting, or launching tokenized instruments to improve liquidity and access to capital.
Why it matters
Tokenized RWAs promise to extend the reach of traditional assets into a digital, on-chain ecosystem, potentially reducing settlement times and widening access to markets for otherwise illiquid assets. The Australian project’s emphasis on licensing infrastructure reflects a maturation of the space—from early blockchain pilots to regulated offerings that require compliance frameworks, custody solutions, and robust participant protections. If Australia succeeds in creating a trusted, licensable pathway for tokenized RWAs, it could attract both domestic and foreign capital seeking regulated exposure to real-world assets such as private equity, infrastructure projects, and fixed income instruments.
The broader market context is equally instructive. On-chain visibility for tokenized RWAs remains strong despite broader crypto market headwinds, with RWA.xyz reporting an on-chain total value of about $26.5 billion. Ethereum dominates the space, illustrating how core smart contract platforms are shaping the structure and accessibility of tokenized assets. This backdrop helps explain why institutions like BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan have already moved beyond pilots and are actively launching products in tokenized finance. The evolution is not just about trading tokens; it encompasses on-chain settlement, regulatory-compliant issuance, and the integration of RWAs into traditional trading rails.
BTC Markets’ leadership in pursuing a regulated model underscores a practical shift: tokenization can be anchored in rigorous compliance and investor protection while still delivering the efficiency and openness promised by blockchain-based markets. The Australian context—strong regulatory oversight, deep capital markets, and a robust pension framework—could serve as a proving ground for tokenized structures that other jurisdictions may later adopt or adapt. As Dobbins notes, the opportunity is not merely theoretical; the question is how quickly licensed market infrastructure can scale to meet demand while maintaining appropriate safeguards.
“What’s changed is that this is no longer theoretical. Institutions like BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan are already launching real products.”
“As regulatory clarity improves and infrastructure develops, Australia has the potential to play a meaningful role in the next phase of tokenized financial markets.”
Looking ahead, the first tangible use cases are expected to emerge in areas where tokenization can deliver meaningful efficiency gains—private markets, infrastructure investments, and fund distribution—where compliance, transparency, and access are paramount. In the meantime, platforms already in motion—with Kraken’s tokenized stock initiative via xStocks and the xChange on-chain trading engine, Robinhood’s European tokenized stock plans, and Coinbase’s upcoming Tokenize platform—signal a broader shift toward institutional-grade tokenized RWAs that complement rather than replace traditional markets.
The Australian context also points to a broader regulatory and infrastructural arc that could influence global adoption. The Digital Finance Cooperative Research Centre has highlighted a substantial potential to generate economic gains from tokenized markets in Australia, with estimates around AUD 24 billion per year (about USD 16.8 billion), representing roughly 1% of GDP. If current trajectories hold, the country could capture a fraction of that opportunity by 2030—but achieving scale will depend on licensed infrastructures that can trade tokenized assets within trusted, well-regulated frameworks. Dobbins emphasizes the need for these licensed pathways to unlock the full value of tokenization and to empower broader participation across private markets, infrastructure projects, and fund distribution channels.
What to watch next
- ASIC decisions and timetables on BTC Markets’ market license application, including interim licensing milestones and infrastructure requirements.
- Regulatory developments in Australia that outline the rulebook for tokenized RWAs, including custody, KYC/AML, and investor protections.
- Adoption milestones from major leaders in tokenized finance, including Kraken’s xStocks and xChange progress, and Coinbase Tokenize’s deployment plans for RWAs.
- Tracking on-chain RWAs total value as more assets tokenize, with Ethereum continuing to hold a large share of on-chain tokenized assets.
- Economic impact studies from Australia’s DFCRC and other market analyses that quantify uptake in private markets, infrastructure, and distribution channels as tokenized products mature.
Sources & verification
- BTC Markets’ tokenisation blog post outlining licensing plans: https://www.btcmarkets.net/blog/tokenisation-what-it-actually-means-for-australian-investors
- RWA on-chain value and share of Ethereum from RWA.xyz: https://app.rwa.xyz/ and tokenized RWAs article: https://cointelegraph.com/news/tokenized-rwas-climb-despite-crypto-market-rout
- Kraken’s tokenized stock initiatives (xStocks) and xChange platform: https://cointelegraph.com/news/kraken-xstocks-platform-xchange-engine-tokenized-stock-trading
- Intercontinental Exchange’s blockchain trading platform development for tokenized securities: https://cointelegraph.com/news/nyse-develops-blockchain-trading-platform-tokenized-stocks-etfs
- Coinbase Tokenize announcement: https://x.com/brian_armstrong/status/2001477102860931475
- Australia’s tokenization economic potential from the Digital Finance Cooperative Research Centre: https://cointelegraph.com/news/australia-digital-finance-17-billion-opportunity
Australia’s push toward tokenized RWAs could reshape regulated markets
BTC Markets’ move to seek a markets license with ASIC marks a pivotal step in the practical deployment of tokenized RWAs in a regulated environment. While tokenized assets have already demonstrated significant on-chain activity, the transition from proof of concept to regulated market infrastructure requires robust custody, compliance, and risk controls. The company’s statement suggests a strategic intent to align with investor protection standards while expanding the spectrum of tradable on-chain instruments beyond cryptocurrency, setting the stage for a future where tokenized equities, bonds, and real-world assets coexist with digital assets in a single, regulated marketplace.
The broader market context remains favorable for continued growth in tokenized finance, provided that regulatory clarity keeps pace with technology and market needs. Australia’s regulatory readiness, combined with deep capital markets and a large pension system, could attract both domestic and international participants seeking regulated exposure to RWAs. As the space evolves, institutional engagement—evidenced by BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan’s efforts—will likely drive further product development and liquidity, while on-chain tooling and platform interoperability will be critical to sustaining the momentum. In this dynamic landscape, Australia’s experiment may offer a blueprint for how licensed, compliant tokenized markets can scale responsibly, delivering the promised efficiency gains without compromising investor protection.
Michael Saylor’s Strategy has bought a whopping amount of BTC in its latest move.
Strategy, the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder, has announced a massive purchase worth $1.28 billion.
The firm bought a total of 17,994 BTC at an average price of $70,946 per unit. This may explain last week’s surge in prices.
With this, Strategy now holds a whopping 738,731 BTC, which it acquired for approximately $56 billion at an average price of $75,862 per bitcoin.
Strategy has acquired 17,994 BTC for ~$1.28 billion at ~$70,946 per bitcoin. As of 3/8/2026, we hodl 738,731 $BTC acquired for ~$56.04 billion at ~$75,862 per bitcoin. $MSTR $STRChttps://t.co/1fkG7ehye1
— Strategy (@Strategy) March 9, 2026
The industry remains torn on the firm’s approach, with some analysts and observers criticizing the plan to leverage company shares to buy Bitcoin exclusively. That said, at the time of this writing, Strategy sits on an unrealized loss of about $6 billion, as BTC prices went through serious volatility today.
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Another shocking Monday for the energy market. Last week’s start was remembered for a bullish gap of more than 10% (which was later followed by a pullback), but today’s market open proved even more volatile (as reflected by the ATR indicator). After a bullish gap of roughly 11%, the price continued to climb, reaching a peak of around $114 per barrel of WTI during the Asian session. This is the highest price since 2022.
The drivers of the rally are obvious – the escalation of the war in the Middle East, with more countries becoming involved. Risks have reached a critical point, with discussions emerging around the scenario of a complete blockade of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. In such a case, oil-producing countries could invoke force majeure as grounds for halting supplies.
Technical Analysis of the XTI/USD Chart
Analysing the oil price chart a week ago, we assumed that the $70 level would act as support. Indeed, the market remained above this psychological level, while rising highs and lows reflected traders’ concerns.
Extreme volatility must be taken into account when applying classical technical patterns. Today, the oil price chart allows us to draw a broad ascending channel with a steep slope. In this context, it is worth noting (as indicated by the arrows):
→ the rapid rise in oil prices within the upper quarter of the channel;
→ the subsequent reversal and a swift decline towards the median.
This price action (essentially resembling a Bearish Engulfing pattern) points to a sharp shift in sentiment.
From the bulls’ perspective → the median of the wide channel, reinforced by the psychological $100 level, may act as support.
However, judging by the extremely wide candle, during which the XTI/USD quote dropped from $111 to $100 today, it is reasonable to assume that the initiative currently lies with the bears. And even if a rebound from the median occurs, it may fade near the $105 level (which has already acted as resistance on lower timeframes).
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Crypto World
Japan Denies Releasing Strategic Oil Reserves Amid Middle East Tensions and Surging Crude Prices
TLDR:
- Japan holds the world’s third-largest petroleum reserves, covering roughly 254 days of domestic consumption needs.
- Over 90% of Japan’s crude oil imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz, raising serious energy security concerns.
- Brent crude briefly surged near $120 per barrel, marking one of the sharpest oil price spikes seen in decades.
- Governments discussing strategic reserve releases signal preparations for a broader, potentially global energy supply shock.
Japan’s strategic oil reserves have become a focal point amid escalating Middle East tensions. Tokyo has denied making any final decision on releasing emergency petroleum stockpiles.
Reports earlier suggested Japan was preparing to tap its reserves. Officials say the government is closely monitoring developments before acting. Brent crude briefly surged near $120 per barrel.
This marks one of the sharpest price increases in recent decades. Global energy markets remain on edge.
Japan Monitors Middle East Crisis as Oil Prices Surge
Japan’s government confirmed no final call has been made on releasing strategic petroleum. Officials stated Tokyo is actively watching the Middle East conflict before committing to action.
The situation remains fluid, and energy markets are reacting accordingly. Any formal decision would carry major weight given Japan’s deep crude oil dependency.
Crypto and markets analyst Coin Bureau noted the broader context on social media. The account referenced past crises, including the 1990 Gulf War and the 2011 Fukushima disaster.
Both events prompted emergency energy responses across major economies. This context places the current situation in serious historical company.
Brent crude briefly touched near $120 per barrel amid growing uncertainty. That price level represents one of the largest spikes seen in decades.
Energy traders are pricing in potential supply disruptions stemming from the region. Market volatility is expected to continue as long as regional tensions persist.
Japan holds the world’s third-largest petroleum reserves, behind the United States and China. Its emergency stockpiles cover approximately 254 days of domestic consumption.
Releasing those barrels could help stabilize global supply chains considerably. It could also bring some measured relief to volatile crude prices worldwide.
Strait of Hormuz Disruption Puts Japan’s Energy Security at Risk
The Strait of Hormuz remains central to this rapidly developing energy story. Roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply passes through this single waterway.
Any disruption there would send strong shockwaves through global energy markets. Japan stands among the most exposed nations to such a supply scenario.
More than 90% of Japan’s crude oil imports travel through the Strait of Hormuz. This makes the country particularly sensitive to any blockage or regional conflict.
Strategic reserves exist precisely to buffer economies against sudden supply shocks. Their potential use shows how seriously Tokyo views the current threat.
As Coin Bureau posted: “Even discussing a release tells you something — Governments are preparing for a potential GLOBAL energy shock.” Governments that discuss reserve releases are typically preparing for a broader disruption.
This pattern has held true across several major historical energy crises. The current conversation around Japan’s reserves follows that same well-established logic.
For now, Tokyo maintains a cautious, wait-and-watch stance on the matter. However, if the Hormuz disruption worsens, strategic reserves may become essential.
Japan’s response could set the tone for other energy-dependent nations watching closely. The coming days will determine how far this energy crisis escalates.
Bitcoin (BTC) displayed strength as it traded above $67,000 on Monday, after producing the first bullish weekly close in seven weeks. Meanwhile, oil prices exploded as the Middle East conflict prompted fears of a major supply shortage.
Key takeaways:
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Bitcoin holds firm above $67,000 as oil prices surge to the highest level since 2022.
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The biggest oil supply shock in history triggers global inflation worries.
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A bullish inverted hammer on the weekly chart suggests a potential BTC bottom.
Global oil supply shock sparks inflation worries
Data from TradingView showed oil futures rose to $119 during early Asian trading hours on Monday, as the escalating Middle East conflict raised fears of supply disruptions.
This is the highest price oil has reached since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.
The latest surge in oil prices came as Iraq warned that roughly 3 million barrels per day of production could be disrupted due to Iranian threats against tankers in the Strait of Hormuz.
Related: Bitcoin preps fresh trend line showdown as weekly close sparks $60K target
Capital markets commentator The Kobeissi Letter said the world is now experiencing the “largest oil supply shock in history,” losing nearly 20 million barrels of oil supply daily.
Despite the exploding oil prices, US President Donald Trump said it’s a “small price” to pay for peace.
“Short-term oil prices, which will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over, is a very small price to pay for U.S.A., and world, safety and peace.”
Meanwhile, the sharp rise in oil prices and the imminent supply shock have revived global inflation concerns, with markets seeing few chances of rate cuts in 2026.
Polymarket bettors are pricing in a roughly 99% probability that the Federal Reserve leaves rates unchanged at its March 18 meeting, with only about a 27% chance of a 25-basis-point cut in 2026.
Leaving rates unchanged tightens financial conditions, boosts the dollar, and pressures Bitcoin, which often sees short-term volatility as investors rotate capital into safe havens like gold.
Has Bitcoin price already bottomed?
At the time of writing, Bitcoin traded around $67,000 with little sign of panic selling, suggesting that traders treated the spike as an energy-specific shock rather than a broad risk-off event.
“Bitcoin’s refusal to go down when the rest of the market is burning is one of the strongest indications I’ve seen yet that the bottom could be in,” analyst Brian Brookshire said in an X post on Monday, adding:
“If there were even the slightest hint of froth in Bitcoin, it would have panic-sold off 10% into the futures open.”
Despite being rejected from the $74,000 resistance level, the BTC/USD pair still produced the “first positive weekly candle in 7 weeks,” founder and CEO at CoinBureau Nic said on Monday.
The price action has also formed an “inverted hammer, which could indicate a potential bullish reversal,” Nic added.
An inverted hammer weekly candle is a bullish reversal pattern found at the end of a downtrend. It features a small body at the lower end, little to no lower wick, and a long upper wick at least twice the size of the body. It signals that buyers are challenging sellers, potentially reversing the trend.
Thus, Bitcoin could move higher if this pattern is confirmed by a strong bullish follow-through candle this week, with higher volume to break overhead resistance.
As Cointelegraph reported, spikes in oil prices immediately after conflicts tend to be short-lived, with Bitcoin outperforming over the longer term.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
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