Losing a race is unusual for the crypto industry’s political action committee, Fairshake, which has recorded a dominant record in the past two congressional elections. But the Illinois primaries this week saw its biggest-ever setback, likely to conclude with a new member of the Senate next year being somebody the PAC spent more than $10 million trying to defeat.

Illinois Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton won her Democratic primary, and her state’s Democrat lean means she’s likely to be its next senator after the November general election. One of Fairshake’s affiliates had devoted millions to purchase opposition advertising in that race and to support two of her opponents — representing more than 5% of the funds it’s said it had on-hand this year to devote to the congressional contests.

Not only did that money fail to win the outcome the group aimed for, but Stratton may eventually be a member of the 100-member Senate in which a single lawmaker can have a very potent influence, and she’ll be well aware of the industry’s efforts to oppose her. Crypto advocacy group Stand With Crypto, which evaluates politicians and political candidates, graded Stratton with an “F” on digital assets issues, even though she doesn’t have a significant personal record on crypto policy apart from the state’s industry-opposed regulatory regime signed by her boss last year.

“If you support pro-crypto policies, we will show up big,” Fairshake spokesman Geoff Vetter said in a statement. “If you oppose crypto and American innovation, we will show up big. That message is now clear at both the state level and federal level.”

The industry had mixed results in Illinois, supporting three pro-crypto candidates who won their primaries, and one other who didn’t. A person familiar with the PAC’s strategies said that it saw the loss as a one-off and that it was unlikely that other candidates it opposes down the road will have similar campaign resources they can tap.

Starting with the 2024 elections, Fairshake — primarily backed by Coinbase, a16z and Ripple — has targeted multiple Senate races in which it spent more than $10 million trying to influence the outcome. In its biggest spend in the last cycle, it devoted a towering $40 million to oppose former Senator Sherrod Brown, the Ohio Democrat who as ex-chairman of the Senate Banking Committee stood in the way of crypto legislation. (Brown is trying for a comeback this year, though Fairshake hasn’t yet announced its plan for Brown’s challenge of Senator Jon Husted.)

La Shawn Ford, who won his Illinois 7th District congressional primary to potentially join the House of Representatives next year, was another of Fairshake’s targets in a race in which the PAC spent almost $2.5 million. He accused the PAC of pumping out misleading and defamatory accusations in its ads. While he may represent a future political opponent for the sector, Fairshake celebrated wins for Donna Miller, Melissa Bean and incumbent Representative Nikki Budzinski in other House races in that state.

In 2024, Fairshake and its affiliates supported 53 candidates who ended up in Congress, losing in just five races, though many of the favored candidates were clear frontrunners. The super PAC was widely seen as establishing an industry model for a campaign-finance strategy in which more than $100 million devoted to congressional races (often primaries in districts in which one party has a dominant position) can influence the outcomes for dozens of seats. Fairshake purposefully didn’t craft its political ads to reference its own main aim to foster crypto, but it instead made ads based on whatever was the biggest political vulnerability it saw in opponents or positive points it noted in allies.

Fairshake has been very public about the $193 million war chest it started the campaign season with. The funds aren’t just an election tool. Crypto lobbyists and insiders have acknowledged that it also acts as a caution to sitting lawmakers weighing crypto legislation now moving through Congress. Members know that their decisions on crypto bills could bring either millions of dollars in support or opposition in their campaigns, often far exceeding the amount of money that congressional campaigns can raise from direct donors.

Fairshake doesn’t expect to win everything, but it does expect to win most of the races they get involved with, the person said, and it’ll make the point that opposing crypto innovation will be expensive for politicians.

Some candidates that Fairshake opposed in the past did go on to support crypto initiatives, but Stratton criticized the “MAGA-backed crypto bros” that opposed her. Her crypto intentions in the Senate, if she gets there, remain to be seen.

Read More: Crypto campaign PAC Fairshake marks first wins in 2026 U.S. congressional primaries