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The writer is the director of the Eurasia Nonproliferation Program at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will present his “victory plan” for ending Russia’s war against his country during a visit to the US this week. Central to the plan is likely to be the demand that the Biden administration remove limits on Ukraine’s use of Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) to strike deep into Russia. Kyiv argues that long-range strikes would enable it to destroy Russia’s logistics infrastructure, airfields, and artillery and rocket positions.
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The debate about the wisdom of allowing Ukraine to conduct such strikes hinges not only on their military utility but on divergent views over the risks of Russian retaliation. Some argue that Ukraine’s ongoing Kursk offensive and its recent drone strikes against large Russian ammunition depots are ultimate proof that Russia’s red lines are a chimera. Others worry that, were ATACMS or British Storm Shadow missiles to rain down on Russian territory, Moscow would escalate the conflict horizontally or vertically. It could expand the geographic scope of hostilities with the west, for instance, by helping the Houthis attack maritime shipping in the Middle East, or inch closer to using a nuclear weapon in Europe.
But Russia faces its own dilemmas in weighing how and where to retaliate. Serious assistance to the Houthis would cost Moscow its relations with third parties — chiefly Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates — that have been important to its wartime economic survival. Co-ordination with the Gulf Arab states in Opec+ has given Russia leverage over the oil market, and the UAE has emerged as a crucial conduit for Russian efforts to evade western sanctions.
Significant weapons transfers to the Houthis would not just risk irritating Gulf leaders but also Xi Jinping: China gets most of its oil from the Middle East and its ships have already come under attack in the Red Sea, notwithstanding the Houthis’ promises of safe passage.
Vertical escalation vis-à-vis Ukraine’s backers would not come attached with the same risks of irking Russia’s non-western partners. Should the Biden administration lift its veto on Ukrainian long-range strikes, Russia may well expand its sabotage, espionage and disinformation operations in Europe.
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It may also look for additional ways to stoke fears of nuclear war. Having verbally threatened nuclear apocalypse one time too many, Moscow is now preparing an update to its official nuclear doctrine (presumably to lower the threshold for use), while occasionally hinting that it may conduct a test. But again, this type of vertical escalation is not cost-free for Moscow. It risks unnerving not just China but the many nuclear “have-nots” in the “global south” — countries Russia is courting in its crusade for a post-western international order — without actually achieving its goal of diminishing support for Ukraine.
Western states are not alone in facing dilemmas while pondering their next moves over Ukraine. Ancillary costs (and uncertain benefits) may well mitigate against Russia opting for serious horizontal or vertical escalation — especially since Vladimir Putin remains supremely confident in the prospects of Russia’s victory in Ukraine over the medium term.
This is neither to argue that horizontal escalation is off the cards, nor that a point of nuclear last resort is non-existent: should Russia perceive itself to be on the back foot in Ukraine in ways that cause it to seriously worry, factors that should at present weigh in favour of restraint could suddenly become less important.
Recognising that Putin faces constraints in contemplating options for escalation should also be no cause for trivialising the cumulative impact its actions will still have. Russia’s moves up the escalation ladder still make it the midwife of a more dangerous global nuclear environment.
Roula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favourite stories in this weekly newsletter.
Skirted furniture might sit with the “grandmacore” aesthetic, but in recent years it has moved out of the country cottage into more contemporary settings.
Nicholas Jeanes, co-founder of design studio And Objects, points to its Otterbourne Slipper Chair, which is dressed in a geometric Christopher Farr Cloth Fresco fabric. “Fabric choice and colour instantly changes the look and feel of a traditional upholstered chair,” he says of the eye-catching design. Designer Rachel Donath agrees, and recently added fringing to her velvet Allard Ottoman – for a modern twist.
Rachel Donath velvet Allard Ottoman in Jewel Merlot, £610
And Objects Otterbourne Slipper chair in Christopher Farr Cloth fabric, £5,500
But why have skirting at all? “Not only does it eliminate the dead space underneath your furniture,” says Jeanes, “an upholstered skirt provides flow and softens the transition from the main body of the furniture to the floor.” Longer and looser fabric creates even more fluidity – see the lengthy skirt on Trove by Studio Duggan’s Skirted Seven chair that flares out in a voluminous fashion, or Alice Palmer & Co’s pendant wrapped in linen that hangs down in diaphanous folds. Nicola Harding includes a floor-grazing ruffle around the base of her Curtain Call sofa as a decorative detail that finishes the piece beautifully.
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But skirts don’t have to be flouncy. Pierre Augustin Rose’s white Froufrou ottoman features neat, flat pleats lending simple elegance, while Ceraudo completes its footstools with a cute frilly flourish available in checks, dots, stripes and a diamond pattern. Co-founder Victoria Ceraudo has always loved skirting. “It breaks up the overall form of the furniture,” she concludes, “and creates a warm and inviting interior to cosy down in.”
The amount of money raised on the Alternative Investment Market (AIM) through secondary fundraising has decreased by 33% from last year.
Secondary fundraising describes the sale of post-IPO shares on the secondary market between investors.
Research from national accountancy group UHY Hacker Young showed that only £1.18bn was brought in through secondary fundraising over the past year to August 2023, compared to £1.8bn the previous year.
UHY Hacker Young said: “The fall in the amount of money raised could suggest that investors in AIM companies have been less willing to support AIM companies pursue growth plans.”
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There has been a continued decline from a high of £6bn in fundraising in 2021.
UHY Hacker Young also said that investors have been less supportive of UK shares over the past few years.
Additionally, the perceived risks of UK shares having risen since the Liz Truss Budget in September 2022.
Rumours are also circulating that chancellor Rachel Reeves may remove the inheritance tax break on AIM shares ahead of the Budget on 30 October.
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Currently, shares in many AIM companies are not subject to IHT, making them more valuable to private investors.
In the past 12 months, only one company managed to raise more than £100m through secondary fundraisings on the AIM market.
UHY Hacker Young partner Colin Wright said: “One of the great successes of the AIM market has been the ability of companies to raise money after their IPO to keep powering their growth.
“That element of AIM hasn’t been working recently. The amount of money is down sharply.
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“You can’t blame that entirely on possible tax changes for AIM shares, but the speculation isn’t helping.
“The AIM market is a vital part of the UK’s efforts to create growth companies so reducing the tax breaks attached to it would be counterproductive.
“I’m pretty sure the stock exchange would like the government to clear the air and confirm they have no intention of changing the tax status of AIM shares.”
Wright added that investor focus has shifted away from AIM towards the US market, mainly due to AI-related tech companies performing well.
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A consequence of this is that smaller UK companies are struggling to attract the attention of investors and the capital needed for growth and expansion.
This, he said, has resulted in the valuations of UK listed companies being lower than counterparts on other stock markets and increases the possibility of takeovers of UK companies.
Wright concluded: “The government does need to find ways to encourage more investments in companies on UK stock markets so that they can remain competitive with other countries.”
Roula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favourite stories in this weekly newsletter.
It seems that composer George Benjamin and his regular librettist, Martin Crimp, have an eye for a story. Each of the operas on which they have collaborated has a dramatic narrative that is at once original and layered with meaning.
The latest fruit of their work is Picture a Day Like This, lasting just over one hour and given its premiere at the Aix-en-Provence festival last year. This live recording was made during that first run of performances, though the technical quality is so good that nobody would know.
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A woman has lost her child just as it was old enough “to speak whole sentences”. On being told that her child can be brought back to life if she finds a happy person and cuts a button from their sleeve, she goes on a quest, engaging in a series of unsuccessful encounters. When she does finally meet a woman who seems to be a good match, the outcome is not what she expected.
There is a once-upon-a-time quality to the work that is reflected in the music’s carefully judged refusal to offer easy, tangible answers. This is the most intimate of Benjamin’s stage works and the instrumental ensemble is a small one, though one might not realise that from the range of sounds he is able to create. As always, Benjamin is very specific about every instrumental timbre.
The performance, conducted by the composer, is impeccable in its precision. Marianne Crebassa sings the Woman and the roles of the people she meets are shared between Anna Prohaska, Beate Mordal, Cameron Shahbazi and John Brancy, all excellent.
★★★★☆
‘Benjamin: Picture a Day Like This’ is released by Nimbus Records
YOU could be quids in if you’re able to spot these little-known designs with rare errors in your spare change.
There’s a chance the small coins in your change might be worth a big fortune.
Rare coins are known to pick up large sums of money.
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If you discover a sought-after coin in your change, you can make money on it by selling them at auction, either online or in person, or through a dealer.
There are some coins which are known to fetch large sums of cash, such as the Kew Gardens 50p and the commemorative 50p coins minted to mark the London 2012 games.
But there are also lesser-known designs that are worth keeping an eye out for – as well as error coins.
A coin with a minting error could be worth a small fortune because very few actually make it into circulation.
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The price of a coin varies based on things like demand at the time and how common it is.
It’s important to remember that you aren’t guaranteed to fetch huge amounts if you do choose to sell your change.
Anyone can list a coin on eBay and charge whatever amount they wish, but it’s only ever worth what someone is willing to pay.
By checking the recently sold items you will get a more accurate indication of what people are willing to pay for a specific coin.
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If you managed to sell all of the coins mentioned below for their top value, you could make up to £3,312.
Is Your 50p Worth More Than You Think
Undated 20p – £100
The undated 20p is known as the “holy grail of change collecting”, ChangeChecker previously told The Sun.
Collectors have been known to search far and wide for the valuable coin ever since it entered circulation in 2008.
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Back then, The Royal Mint decided to change the positioning of the date on every 20p piece, moving it from the back to the front.
But in an accidental error, a batch of between 50,000 and 250,000 coins was released without any date at all.
Kimberley Day from RWB auctions said: “These British coins were the first in more than three hundred years to enter circulation with no date.
“Real examples should have no date on either side but otherwise look similar to standard 20ps. These coins sell online for up to £100.”
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We checked eBay and found that one of these error coins sold for £75 on September 25.
While another sold for £69.99 on September 20, and a third for £68 on September 15.
Olympic Aquatics 50p – £3,000
This rare coin features an image of a swimmer slicing through the water on its reverse.
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But the coin we are familiar with today wasn’t actually the original design, Kimberley said.
“Rare early examples show lines across the swimmer’s face, whereas the more common type shows no lines,” she added.
“If you have collector’s edition of this coin with the 50p sealed in a purple and teal card it is worth checking if you have the rare variant.
What are the most rare and valuable coins?
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“Most examples are found in this type of packaging but loose examples have been found in people’s change.
“Genuine examples of this error have sold for £3,000 or more.”
The coin was minted in 2011, along with 28 other designs that each featured a sport played at the 2021 Olympics.
The games were hosted in London that year, so the coin collection came out to celebrate the piece of British sporting history.
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It isn’t known how many of the original design Olympic Aquatics 50ps are out there.
We spotted one of these coins which sold for a whopping £3,766 on eBay on August 4.
But sometimes it’s just tiny differences which make them so lucrative.
The most valuable coins tend to be ones with low mintage numbers or an error.
Those qualities typically make them valuable to collectors.
Your next step would be to check if your coin is still available topurchase in superior Brilliant Uncirculated quality from an official Royal Mint distributor, according to Change Checker.
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Certified Brilliant Uncirculated coins have been specially struck to a superior unblemished quality which set them apart from the coins you may find in pockets.
Selling a coin at auction or through a dealer
There are many different factors to consider when trying to value a coin, including its condition and mintage, so it’s important to do your homework first.
It has a team of experts who can help you to authenticate and value your coin.
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You’ll need to enquire via email, and a member of the valuation team will contact get back to you.
Take a picture of your coin and attach this to the email – you can find the details on The Royal Mint’s website.
Be aware that you will be charged for this service though – the cost will vary depending on the size of your collection.
If you are looking to buy a coin online through a marketplace such as eBay, it’s important to know exactly what you are purchasing.
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This is because anyone can list a coin on eBay and charge whatever amount they wish.
You should also be wary of fakes online – and keep in mind that on eBay a buyer could pull out, which means the coin won’t have sold for the price it says it has.
Qatar Airways has announced a partnership with the UEFA Champions League, in a deal that will run until 2030. Further solidifying its mission to unite people through the power of sport, the move builds on the success of sponsoring UEFA EURO 2020 and UEFA EURO 2024 in an agreement that includes sponsorship rights to the UEFA Super Cup, UEFA Youth League and UEFA Futsal Champions League
Roula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favourite stories in this weekly newsletter.
Former Tory cabinet minister Michael Gove has been appointed editor of The Spectator, its publisher said on Wednesday, weeks after hedge fund boss Sir Paul Marshall bought the British conservative magazine for £100mn.
Gove will oversee the magazine, which has traditionally had strong links with the Conservative party, during a new chapter for the weekly title, which started its current run in 1828.
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The former education secretary and housing secretary, who stood down from parliament at the general election, previously worked at newspapers including The Times and the Daily Telegraph, as well as the BBC and Channel 4.
Gove was popular among many colleagues in the House of Commons for his witty performances at the despatch box. But he is held in suspicion by some Tories, who accuse him of stabbing his Oxford university friend Boris Johnson in the back when he unexpectedly ran for the Conservative leadership in 2016.
Back in the cabinet, Gove then told Johnson, who was editor of The Spectator between 1999 and 2005, to resign in 2022, only to be fired by the scandal-hit former prime minister.
Gove joins former Tory chancellor George Osborne — a friend from the Notting Hill set led by former prime minister Lord David Cameron — in leaving politics for journalism.
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As editor of The Spectator he will replace Fraser Nelson, who has overseen the digital transformation of the title over the past 15 years.
Freddie Sayers, the magazine’s publisher, said Nelson would become associate editor and continue to write for the title, while Lord Charles Moore, a former Spectator and Telegraph editor, would become non-executive chair. Moore will replace journalist Andrew Neil.
Sayers said that “alongside his political and journalistic nous, Michael brings a love of books, philosophy, art, opera — and a mischievous sense of humour”.
Gove will start in the role next month, pending approval from the Whitehall appointments watchdog.
The Spectator has a growing digital operation as well as an events business, and was described by a former editor as “more of a cocktail party than a political party”. It hosts an annual summer party attended by many ministers and backbench MPs.
Nelson said Gove was “the obvious successor . . . he’s a first-class journalist who took a detour into politics, he was my news editor when I was a young reporter at The Times and he first declared his ambition to edit The Spectator in an Aberdeen classroom at the age of seven”.
Marshall has laid out plans to invest in The Spectator, which he acquired this month with his Old Queen Street Media company after a protracted sales process. It began last summer after the Barclay family lost control of the title due to bad debts owed to Lloyds Banking Group.
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The new owner wants to expand the magazine in North America, where it already has an edition, as well as building its digital subscriptions and adding to its video and podcasts operations.
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