What Happens to ETH if $2.9K Support Is Decisively Lost?

Ethereum is currently in a broad sideways structure, with the spot price trading below the main trend-defining moving averages while on-chain activity shows early signs of stabilization. The market is in a neutral-to-cautious state. Downside risk remains present on the charts, but structural support zones and improving network usage keep the medium-term outlook open for a potential recovery once selling pressure exhausts.

Ethereum Price Analysis: The Daily Chart

On the daily timeframe, ETH has been rejected lower from the recent consolidation below the declining 100-day moving average, with the 200-day moving average still positioned higher and confirming a medium-term downtrend. The price is trading around the $2,900 region after another decisive rejection from the $3,400–$3,500 supply band, leaving the $2,600–$2,700 zone as the first major demand zone.

A sustained loss of the $2,700 area would increase the risk of a deeper move toward the $2,200 support area. The daily RSI has pulled back from neutral levels and is drifting toward oversold territory, signalling that momentum is bearish but also that the market is approaching a zone where downside extension may begin to slow if fresh sellers do not appear.

ETH/USDT 4-Hour Chart

The 4-hour chart shows ETH breaking below the rising trendline that had connected higher lows since the November bottom, effectively breaking the symmetrical triangle structure. The asset is now consolidating just under the former $3,000 support band, which has turned into short-term resistance. Repeated failures to reclaim this area would keep intraday pressure skewed toward the $2,800 level and, if weakness persists, down toward the major $2,500-$2,600 demand zone.

The 4-hour RSI has already printed oversold readings and is attempting to stabilize, suggesting that while intraday momentum is negative, the market may transition into a choppy consolidation phase rather than an immediate impulsive leg lower if the current short-term support zone holds.

On-Chain Analysis

Looking at on-chain activity, Ethereum’s total transaction count and its 30-day EMA have been trending higher from the depressed levels seen in early 2025, even as the price has recently corrected from all-time highs back toward $2,900. This combination of declining price and rising transactional activity often reflects a shift from speculative excess toward more organic network usage, as weaker hands reduce exposure while a base of active users remains engaged.

If the current upturn in transaction counts persists or accelerates while price consolidates above the main demand zones, it would signal that fundamental network demand is absorbing supply. This is historically a constructive backdrop for a medium-term recovery. Failure of activity to hold these gains, by contrast, would argue for viewing the recent bounce as primarily technical rather than fundamentally supported.