Excess leverage in crypto markets has virtually dissappeared which could result in a healthier spot-based market recovery, say analysts.

Global tensions, particularly the Iran-US conflict, have rattled crypto markets and pushed investors away from risk-taking.

“Periods like this are generally not favorable for risk-taking, and this can be clearly observed in the sharp decline of Bitcoin’s Estimated Leverage Ratio on Binance,” said CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost on Monday.

The metric measures the intensity with which investors use leverage and is calculated by comparing the futures Open Interest (OI) with the amount of BTC reserves held on the exchange. Since February, this ratio has fallen sharply from 0.198 to 0.152 — coinciding with Bitcoin dropping from $96,000to $69,000.

A Healthier Market Dynamic

If the ratio remains low while Bitcoin consolidates, it likely signals that spot buying rather than leveraged speculation is becoming the dominant price driver, which is a generally healthier dynamic.

“Lower leverage generally means less systemic pressure, which can help stabilize price action before the market enters a new directional phase.”

🗞️Bitcoin leverage reset after market volatility

“Since February, Bitcoin’s Estimated Leverage Ratio on Binance has dropped from 0.198 to 0.152, representing a significant and rapid decline. This type of move is typically observed after periods of strong volatility and major… pic.twitter.com/q1MVOR5CZa

— Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc) March 9, 2026

In a separate post, CryptoQuant analyst “IT tech” said that “bottom callers are multiplying.” One metric just hit 29 consecutive days in distress territory, they added, highlighting the Bitcoin long-term holder-to-short-term holder SOPR ratio, which is at 0.89.

“Recent buyers are underwater. LTHs aren’t selling, but they’re not absorbing either. STH capitulation building, but nowhere near extremes. Calling a structural low here is premature.”

Meanwhile, Glassnode reported on Monday that momentum has “firmed modestly,” with RSI lifting from recent lows, “but price action still lacks the strength of a decisive bullish shift.”

“Spot activity remains subdued, with lower trading volume pointing to softer participation even as conditions begin to stabilize.”

Crypto Market Outlook

Spot markets have climbed 4.3% on the day to reach $2.46 trillion in a move that follows US President Trump’s comments that the war with Iran could be “over soon.” Bitcoin reclaimed $70,000 in early trading in Asia on Tuesday as oil prices tanked 28% from Monday’s high of $120.

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Ether remained weak, but it was holding above the $2,000 level at the time of writing. Meanwhile, some altcoins were seeing larger gains, including Hyperliquid and Zcash, which surged more than 11% each.

US prosecutors have requested a retrial of crypto mixer Tornado Cash co-founder Roman Storm after a jury failed to reach a unanimous verdict on two charges at his trial last year.

US Attorney for Manhattan Jay Clayton asked federal Judge Katherine Polk Failla in a letter on Monday for a trial date to retry Storm on charges of conspiracy to commit money laundering and conspiracy to violate sanctions.

The letter asked the court for the retrial to begin on or around Oct. 5 to 12, with the trial expected to last three weeks. It said prosecutors were prepared to retry the case as early as spring, between March and May, but Storm’s defense lawyers said they weren’t available until late 2026.

In August, a jury convicted Storm of conspiring to operate an unlicensed money transmitting business, but was deadlocked on the money laundering and sanctions violation conspiracy charges, which has allowed prosecutors to retry those charges.

Storm had pleaded not guilty and asked Judge Polk Failla in October to acquit him of the money transmitting charge, arguing prosecutors failed to prove he intended to help bad actors use Tornado Cash.

Clayton wrote in his letter that Storm’s lawyers told prosecutors that setting a new trial date was premature due to the pending acquittal motion, which wouldn’t be resolved until early April, when it is scheduled for argument.

Prosecutors hope for “different answer,” says Storm

Storm posted on X that the two counts the government plans to retry him on could see him spend “up to 40 years in federal prison. For writing open-source code. For a protocol I don’t control. For transactions I never touched.”

“A jury already couldn’t agree this was criminal. But the SDNY [Southern District of New York] prosecutors want to keep trying with the hope of getting a different answer,” he added.

Amanda Tuminelli, the legal chief at crypto advocacy group the DeFi Education Fund, said the Justice Department’s decision to retry Storm was “incredibly disappointing.”

“Despite failing to convince a jury the first time around, despite making obvious mistakes like calling irrelevant witnesses and not understanding the forensic analysis of their own blockchain evidence, and despite multiple legal and logical fallacies to their allegations of third-party dev liability, the SDNY will retry Roman Storm,” she added.

Related: DOJ finalizes $400M crypto forfeiture in Helix Bitcoin mixer case

Clayton’s letter comes as a report that the US Treasury submitted to Congress this month acknowledged some lawful uses of crypto mixers, including those who use such services “to maintain more privacy in their consumer spending habits.”

In his X post, Storm also noted that US Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche had issued a memo in April saying the Justice Department “is not a digital assets regulator,” and the agency would “no longer pursue litigation or enforcement actions that have the effect of superimposing regulatory frameworks on digital assets.”

“Same country, same DOJ — just filed to retry me anyway,” Storm said.

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