Bitcoin Stuck in 60-Day Range as Record ETF Outflows Show US Selling Pressure

TLDR:

• Bitcoin has been consolidating in an $85,000 to $94,000 range for 60 days with no breakout momentum.
• Record weekly ETF outflows from BTC and ETH products indicate US institutional sellers control direction.
• The Coinbase premium trades at a discount, confirming US counterparties are net sellers versus Europe buyers.
• FOMC meeting, Mag 7 earnings, and tariff negotiations this week could break the prolonged consolidation. 

Bitcoin has traded within an $85,000 to $94,000 range for the past 60 days, despite an early January attempt to break above $97,000.

Record ETF outflows last week and a negative Coinbase premium indicate US sellers are controlling market direction.

The week ahead brings the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, major technology earnings reports, and ongoing tariff discussions that could break the prolonged consolidation.

US Institutional Flows Turn Negative

The cryptocurrency market has seen minimal movement over the past two months, while gold and silver reached all-time highs amid debasement concerns.

Bitcoin’s digital gold narrative has failed to materialize during this period of dollar weakness. Implied volatility remains compressed across the curve, suggesting low market participation and minimal demand for directional exposure.

January’s brief rally toward $97,000 coincided with strong ETF inflows before quickly fading without follow-through buying support.

The market returned to mid-range levels as institutional players trade the boundaries while retail investors stay away. Wintermute observed that “January gave us a breakout attempt toward $97K, the market got excited, we traded above range briefly, then it completely faded.”

Recent data shows record weekly outflows from both Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange-traded products, removing crucial momentum drivers from the market.

The Coinbase premium currently trades at a discount, confirming that US counterparties are net sellers compared to marginal buying in Europe and neutral positioning in Asia.

These flows matter because US institutional capital enters through ETFs, corporate treasuries, and spot purchases.

According to Wintermute, “ETF flows and Coinbase premium are the gauges to watch. We need both to flip before the market can break convincingly above mid-$90K levels.”

The $85,000 level has held during multiple tests, providing a consistent floor despite negative US flows and compressed volatility. This suggests buying interest exists but remains passive rather than aggressive.

Macro Catalysts Could Break Consolidation

Four themes have dominated markets recently: artificial intelligence investment, interest rates, dollar debasement, and geopolitical tensions. This week delivers catalysts on all fronts that could finally break the 60-day range.

The Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday carries no expectation for rate cuts, but the dot plot projections and Chairman Powell’s commentary on inflation will set the tone for dollar strength and risk appetite.

Tariff negotiations around Greenland remain unresolved, while gold captures safe-haven flows from the uncertainty. Escalation would pressure crypto through a stronger dollar and risk-off sentiment, while de-escalation would provide relief.

Major technology earnings from Microsoft, Meta, and Tesla arrive on Wednesday, followed by Apple on Thursday after record AI capital expenditure in 2024.

Markets expect these companies to demonstrate revenue growth justifying their investments, with guidance carrying more weight than current results. Wintermute noted that “after record AI capex in 2024, markets expect these companies to start growing into their revenue numbers.”

Bullish AI spending with clear monetization paths supports risk assets, while margin caution or reduced capex would pressure both equities and crypto.

Reports suggest the Fed is considering coordinated dollar selling and yen buying for the first time since 1998, though nothing has been confirmed yet.

Government shutdown risk sits at 81 percent on Polymarket, which historically pressures the dollar and supports risk assets.

The combination of compressed volatility meeting event risk suggests movement is likely, with direction depending on how these catalysts resolve.