Premier League clubs are heading into the final matchday of the Champions League group phase and are waiting to discover their opponents for the knockout stages, with draw rules determining pairings
The Champions League league phase table is finely balanced ahead of a potentially chaotic night of action on Wednesday. All 36 teams now have a single fixture left as they seek to secure their places in the knockout rounds.
And all 18 matches will kick off simultaneously – at 8pm on Wednesday. Six Premier League sides will be in action, with five of them presently holding positions in the top eight.
The sides who finish in the top eight receive seeding and progress directly to the round of 16, whilst those placed ninth to 24th must compete in a two-legged play-off to join them. Arsenal are already virtually certain to finish top of the table owing to a commanding goal difference, while Liverpool and Tottenham simply need victories in their final fixtures, against Qarabag and Eintracht Frankfurt, to guarantee their last-16 berths.
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Newcastle, Chelsea and Manchester City are still fighting to accompany them. And due to the Champions League’s new draw structure, we already have an indication of who each side could face – although the table will obviously shift on the final night of league phase fixtures.
As things stand, 11th-placed Man City are the sole English club who will need to negotiate a two-legged play-off – in which according to our projections they are set to meet either Monaco (21st) or PSV (22nd).
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Victory would see City matched against either the fifth or sixth seed in the last 16. At present, that would mean Premier League rivals Spurs or European Cup holders PSG.
Spurs are aware that if they avoid City, the three other rivals they appear most likely to encounter in their opening knockout round are Monaco (21st), PSV (22nd) or Atletico Madrid (12th).
Meanwhile, Arsenal’s prize for topping their group could be a two-legged last-16 clash against one of four sides: Galatasaray (17th), Qarabag (18th), Juventus (15th) or Borussia Dortmund (16th).
Liverpool presently occupy fourth spot and we forecast they would meet one of the following four clubs in the round of 16: Atalanta (13th), Inter Milan (14th), Marseille (19th) or Bayer Leverkusen (20th).
Newcastle are presently seventh in the standings and, as such, could encounter a mouth-watering clash against Barcelona (9th) if they manage to hold onto their seeding. Other forecast potential adversaries are Sporting CP (10th), Athletic Club (23rd) or Olympiacos (24th).
Chelsea occupy eighth position, and so their pool of prospective opponents is identical to Newcastle’s.
That draw structure means that Arsenal would be on the same side of the draw as Newcastle and Chelsea, making an all-English quarter-final against either side a possibility. Alternatively, five-time winners Barcelona could be waiting in the last eight.
Six-time champions Liverpool could be matched against either Man City or Tottenham in the quarter-finals, as things stand, while PSG or Atletico are other formidable contenders. With one fixture remaining for each side, the standings could still shift considerably.
However, Arsenal look certain to claim second place, whilst Liverpool, given their goal difference, are unlikely to climb higher than third.
Tottenham can finish third at best, whereas Newcastle and Chelsea must avoid defeat away at PSG and Napoli respectively to secure top-eight finishes. City need to overcome Galatasaray at home and hope other results fall in their favour.
Topping the league phase didn’t benefit Liverpool last season as they came up against PSG in the last 16 and were knocked out. But under a rule change this year, Arsenal are guaranteed home advantage in the second leg of every knockout tie they contest, provided they finish top of the table.
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