Nearly 80% of corporate Bitcoin holders are sitting on unrealized losses as BTC trades well below the average treasury purchase price.
Around 80% of companies holding Bitcoin (BTC) as a treasury asset are sitting on unrealized losses, according to an analysis by Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments.
The data comes at a time BTC is pushing back toward $71,000, raising questions of whether the widespread institutional pain is a warning sign or a contrarian buy signal.
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The Numbers Behind the Corporate Pain
Edwards shared a series of charts on X on March 10 showing that the simple average cost basis for Bitcoin treasury holdings is at around $90,000, which is well above where BTC is trading today.
On a weighted basis, which gives more weight to larger holders such as Strategy, the average purchase price dropped to about $81,000, showing that the biggest buyers got in earlier and at a lower level. But either way, the number one cryptocurrency is currently below both figures.
“At 80%, almost all treasuries are at a loss on their Bitcoin purchase today,” Edwards wrote. “Though history suggests this could get worse if 2026 is like 2022. There is no free Bitcoin yield.”
In the same thread, Edwards noted that institutions are also broadly down on their BTC positions, with the average institutional purchase price sitting near $78,000. He also said that ETF holders were in the red as well.
However, the analyst did flag one piece of data that stood out, namely that treasury and ETF buying had flipped net positive by 200% on the day of his post.
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“The last time it was this high, Bitcoin was at $90,000,” he stated, calling it “very good news, especially amid war.”
That appetite Edwards was referring to was typified by Strategy, which yesterday announced a purchase of 17,994 BTC at an average price of approximately $71,000 per BTC, bringing its total holdings to 738,731 BTC bought for $56 billion. At current prices, the firm’s position is carrying an unrealized loss in the region of $6 billion.
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Separately, Strategy’s perpetual preferred stock posted a new 2026 trading volume high of $299 million on March 9, which BitcoinTreasuries estimated was enough to fund another 1,360 BTC purchase.
The broader supply picture adds some context to why institutional accumulation is drawing attention, with analyst Darkfost noting that Bitcoin reserves on centralized exchanges have fallen to levels last seen in 2019.
Additionally, ETFs have absorbed around 1.3 million BTC since their January 2024 launch, while corporate treasury companies collectively hold about 1.1 million BTC, which is nearly 5% of the total supply.
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Bitcoin Price Overview
Bitcoin was changing hands near $71,000 at the time of this writing, up over 4% in 24 hours after bouncing from around $67,500. In the last seven days, the asset gained 6.4% and has almost doubled that over 14 days. Still, it remains down nearly 13% year-on-year and about 44% below its October 2025 all-time high.
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Brian Armstrong says AI agents cannot open bank accounts but can hold crypto wallets.
Coinbase launched Agentic Wallets via the x402 protocol for fast AI-to-AI payments.
Wallets enable gasless trading on Base, Coinbase’s Ethereum layer-2 network.
Mastercard and crypto firms build solutions to support AI agent commerce.
Brian Armstrong’s AI agents and crypto wallets discussion gained attention after the Coinbase CEO highlighted that autonomous AI programs will soon dominate financial transactions.
Armstrong stated that AI agents cannot open bank accounts, but they can generate crypto wallets and transact globally.
Coinbase Launches Agentic Wallets for Machine Transactions
On March 9, Brian Armstrong posted on X explaining that AI agents will soon outnumber humans in financial activity. He argued that traditional banks cannot serve AI because of the Know Your Customer requirements.
Very soon there are going to be more AI agents than humans making transactions.
They can’t open a bank account, but they can own a crypto wallet. Think about it.
AI agents require payment capabilities to execute assigned tasks autonomously. Without bank accounts, agents cannot pay for services like server hosting or software tools.
Coinbase introduced Agentic Wallets on February 11, 2026, via its x402 protocol. The protocol is designed for machine-to-machine payments and has processed over 50 million transactions by the time of Armstrong’s post.
The wallets can be created and funded quickly through Coinbase developer tools. They also allow gasless trading on Base, Coinbase’s layer‑2 network built on Ethereum.
Armstrong emphasized that AI agents can own crypto wallets immediately, bypassing the human identity verification barrier. This capability positions crypto as a natural infrastructure for the coming machine economy.
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Other crypto leaders have shared similar views on AI-driven financial activity. Former Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao predicted that AI agents will produce millions of times more transactions than humans.
Industry Prepares for AI Agent Commerce
Traditional financial companies are developing systems to accommodate agent-driven transactions. Mastercard launched Verifiable Intent, a framework co-developed with Google, to track AI purchases securely.
The system creates a cryptographic record linking the consumer’s authorization, the AI agent’s action, and the transaction. It uses selective disclosure to share only the necessary information with merchants and issuers.
Meanwhile, crypto platforms continue to expand blockchain-based payment rails for AI agents. EigenCloud partnered with Google Cloud to serve as a verifiable backbone for agent transactions.
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The Ethereum Foundation also established the dAI Team to make Ethereum a preferred settlement layer for machine-driven commerce.
These efforts illustrate two approaches: traditional finance builds trust layers, while crypto platforms provide blockchain-native solutions.
Taken together, these developments indicate that AI agents are likely to rely on crypto wallets for autonomous transactions.
Coinbase’s Agentic Wallets and blockchain infrastructure offer immediate solutions for machine-to-machine financial operations.
BitGo will provide custody and trading services for StableX Technologies’ digital asset treasury as it plans to acquire up to $100 million in crypto tokens tied to the stablecoin sector.
According to Tuesday’s announcement, BitGo Bank & Trust, N.A. will serve as the custodian for StableX’s digital asset holdings, while BitGo’s trading platforms will help execute the company’s planned acquisitions through its over-the-counter liquidity desk.
StableX (SBLX) is a publicly traded company focused on stablecoin infrastructure and related technologies. Shares of the Nasdaq-listed company gained as much as 9% in afternoon trading following the news, before closing up 1.6%.
Chen Fang, chief revenue officer at BitGo, told Cointelgraph that the “partnership underscores BitGo’s expanding role as the go-to infrastructure provider for a new wave of publicly traded companies building digital asset treasury strategies.” He added:
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“The StableX deal is notable because it goes beyond Bitcoin-centric treasury strategies. It signals demand for institutional custody infrastructure around stablecoin ecosystem tokens.”
StableX has already begun building its digital asset treasury, previously announcing purchases of tokens including FLUID and Chainlink’s LINK (LINK) in October.
BitGo, a digital asset infrastructure company founded in 2013, provides custody, trading and other services for institutional crypto clients. The company went public on the New York Stock Exchange in January, pricing its shares at $18 in its initial public offering.
The stock rose about 25% on its first day of trading before reversing course and later falling below its IPO price. The NYSE-traded shares closed up more than 11%.
Interest in the stablecoin sector has grown as the total stablecoin market capitalization has climbed to more than $314 billion, according to the latest DefiLlama data. Though dedicated investment products remain limited, some investors are beginning to focus on the infrastructure that supports these tokens.
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In September, Bitwise filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission to launch a Stablecoin & Tokenization ETF designed to track companies and digital assets tied to the stablecoin and tokenization sectors.
The proposed exchange-traded fund would follow an index composed of companies involved in stablecoin issuance, infrastructure, payments and exchanges, alongside crypto assets such as Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH).
In January, MarketVector Indexes also launched benchmarks focused on stablecoin and real-world asset tokenization infrastructure, which underpin two exchange-traded funds from Amplify ETFs: the Amplify Tokenization Technology ETF (TKNQ) and the Amplify Stablecoin Technology ETF (STBQ).
Several stablecoin issuers are also publicly traded companies. Circle issues the USDC stablecoin, the second-largest dollar-pegged token in circulation, while PayPal launched its PayPal USD stablecoin (PYUSD) in 2023 to support blockchain-based payments and settlement.
Western Union, one of the world’s largest remittance providers, recently announced its planned stablecoin settlement system will run on Solana and include a US Dollar Payment Token (USDPT), which the company expects to launch in the first half of 2026.
Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently. Read our Editorial Policy https://cointelegraph.com/editorial-policy
CFTC Chairman Michael Selig is trying to drag prediction markets and crypto out of the legal grey zone by scrapping a de facto ban and replacing it with a derivatives‑style rulebook the agency, not the states, will control.
Summary
Selig withdrew the 2024 event‑contracts ban proposal and a 2025 staff advisory, ordering a new rulebook meant to “support the responsible development” of event markets.
The CFTC is asserting “exclusive jurisdiction” over prediction markets and moving to back a registered exchange against Nevada’s gambling rules, setting up a federal–state pre‑emption fight.
Through Project Crypto with the SEC, Selig wants unified crypto rules, a shared token taxonomy and onshored perps and tokenized assets, in return for tighter surveillance and insider‑trading enforcement.
CFTC Chairman Michael Selig is trying to drag prediction markets and crypto out of a legal grey zone and into a federal framework that looks more like traditional derivatives – while fighting off states and gamblers at the same time.
According to a new report in CoinDesk, “Selig reiterated the CFTC will issue guidance to clarify how prediction markets, known as event contracts in regulation, can list and trade products under U.S. law and will launch a rulemaking process seeking public input on how the fast-growing sector should be overseen.”
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Event contracts: from ban threat to rulebook
In his first major policy speech on January 29, 2026, Selig said the CFTC will scrap a 2024 proposal that would have effectively banned sports‑ and politics‑related event contracts and withdraw a 2025 staff advisory that warned platforms off sports markets, admitting the advisory had “inadvertently added to the uncertainty present in our markets.” Instead, he ordered staff to draft a new “event contracts rulemaking” to “establish clear standards for event contracts that provide certainty to market participants” and “support the responsible development of event contract markets,” which the CFTC views as tools to hedge risk and aggregate information, not just wagers.
At the same time, Selig is asserting turf. In speeches, an Axios interview and an AP‑covered Wall Street Journal op‑ed, he has argued that prediction markets fall under the Commodity Exchange Act and that the CFTC has “exclusive jurisdiction” over them, vowing the agency “will no longer remain passive while overly aggressive governments undermine [its] jurisdiction… by attempting to impose statewide bans on these innovative products.” The commission has already asked the Ninth Circuit for permission to file an amicus brief backing a CFTC‑registered exchange in its fight against Nevada’s attempt to regulate event contracts as gambling, setting up an eventual pre‑emption clash that could go as high as the Supreme Court.
Insider trading, surveillance and Project Crypto
Selig’s stance is not a free pass. He has repeatedly framed exchanges as the “first line of defense” against insider trading, and law‑firm summaries of his agenda stress that prediction platforms should upgrade compliance, particularly around the “permissible use of material non‑public information.” The Department of Justice is already circling: the U.S. Attorney for SDNY has publicly warned that “placing a bet through a prediction market doesn’t insulate you from fraud,” citing cases where bettors used inside information about a basketball player’s availability to rig prop bets – the same logic that could apply to political, policy or war‑related markets.
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Crypto is woven into this. In the same speech, Selig announced “Project Crypto,” a formal coordination with the SEC intended to deliver “clear, durable rules of the road” for digital‑asset markets, including joint work on a crypto‑asset taxonomy and expanded eligibility for tokenized collateral. He also said he wants to “onshore perpetual and other novel derivative products so that they can flourish… subject to appropriate safeguards,” signalling that the CFTC is willing to own perps, tokenized stocks and prediction markets – as long as they move inside its regulatory perimeter.
Put bluntly: Selig is offering crypto and prediction markets a deal. The CFTC will fight states that want to treat everything as gambling and will abandon blanket bans on sports and political contracts – but in exchange, platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi must accept heavy surveillance, insider‑trading enforcement and a derivatives‑style rulebook rather than the degen free‑for‑all that built the first wave of volume.
In South Korea, authorities have recovered and liquidated a tranche of cryptocurrency seized in a phishing-linked custody incident, while prosecutors signal a broader shift in how crypto losses are treated in debt-restructuring cases. The Gwangju District Prosecutors’ Office disclosed that 320.8 Bitcoin were sold at prevailing market prices, yielding roughly 31.59 billion won (about $21.5 million) that was transferred to the national treasury. The sale was staged over an 11-day window in late February and early March to minimize market impact, according to local coverage. The episode follows a complex chain of events that began with a custody breach and culminated in a government-controlled wallet and subsequent liquidation.
Key takeaways
Authorities sold 320.8 Bitcoin at market prices, transferring about 31.59 billion won to the state treasury.
The liquidation occurred over 11 days, from Feb. 24 to March 6, to limit potential market disruption.
The Bitcoin was originally seized from a suspect tied to an illegal gambling operation that allegedly handled roughly 390 billion won in wagers between 2018 and 2021.
Bitcoin had been lost during a custody handover in August 2025 after a phishing scheme compromised asset managers, with funds traced to a hacker’s wallet.
On Feb. 17, the assets were moved to a government-controlled wallet after exchanges were asked to freeze the address; on Feb. 19, prosecutors reported the hacker had returned 320.88 BTC.
Separately, courts in Daegu, Daejeon and Gwangju are reevaluating how crypto losses are treated in personal rehabilitation, potentially excluding crypto losses from liquidation value calculations.
Price impact: Neutral. The staged sale aimed to minimize market disruption by spreading liquidations over more than a week.
Market context: The case underscores how authorities manage liquidations of crypto assets recovered from criminal activity and how regulators are weighing crypto losses within broader debt-restructuring frameworks, reflecting a maturing approach to crypto custody and asset recovery in a tightening regulatory environment.
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Why it matters
The events illuminate how public authorities handle crypto assets recovered through law enforcement. By selling the seized Bitcoin in measured, market-aware batches, the prosecutors sought to avoid abrupt price movements that could ripple through exchanges and related markets. The proceeds, funneled into the national treasury, also demonstrate a tangible channel through which illicit activity—now partly deterred by stricter controls—contributes to public financing. The episode illustrates both the challenges of asset tracing in the wake of phishing scams and the practical steps governments are taking to re-integrate recovered funds into legitimate channels.
Beyond the immediate liquidation, the incident feeds into a broader discussion about how crypto losses are treated in personal debt restructurings. Local outlets reported that newly established rehabilitation courts in three cities are moving toward guidelines that would generally exclude crypto investment losses from liquidation calculations. In effect, losses tied to cryptocurrency investments could be treated more like ordinary asset losses rather than speculative debts, potentially reducing repayment obligations for individuals entering court-supervised debt relief. The shift would align crypto losses with other non-liquid assets in some rehabilitation scenarios, signaling a nuanced stance as courts adapt to digital assets in financial distress cases.
The broader regulatory and judicial response matters because it shapes risk and recovery dynamics for investors, creditors, and service providers operating in Korea’s crypto ecosystem. The February and March developments show that authorities are increasingly capable of tracing and recovering stolen or misappropriated crypto, and they are prepared to take decisive steps—such as freezing exchange addresses and coordinating with overseas partners—to facilitate recovery and orderly liquidations when possible.
What to watch next
Follow-up guidelines from rehabilitation courts in Daejeon, Daegu, and Gwangju detailing how crypto losses are treated in liquidation calculations, with potential implementation timelines.
Any additional recoveries or reversals related to the phishing incident, including further tracing of the hacker’s wallet or subsequent asset movements.
Regulatory clarifications on how crypto assets are valued in debt restructurings and how this may affect individuals undergoing rehabilitation in Korea.
Further actions by prosecutors or financial authorities to coordinate with exchanges or international partners in asset freezes or return processes.
Sources & verification
Gwangju District Prosecutors’ Office statements and reported sale details (local coverage via Chosun Ilbo English edition).
BTC sale details and the related transfer amount to the national treasury as reported by The Chosun Ilbo.
Reports on the custody breach and the phishing incident that led to the loss and subsequent recovery of Bitcoin (linked in coverage of the case).
EToday’s report on rehabilitation courts and proposed guidelines for crypto-loss treatment in debt restructuring cases.
What the article topic means for readers
South Korea’s handling of recovered crypto assets demonstrates a practical approach to asset recovery and governance, highlighting how authorities balance market stability with the need to return funds to public coffers. The development also reflects a broader trend: as crypto markets mature and regulatory scrutiny intensifies, legal frameworks are increasingly capable of integrating digital assets into traditional financial processes, from custody management to debt resolution. For investors and builders, the episode underscores the importance of robust custody controls, vigilant monitoring of phishing risks, and a clear, evolving set of rules that can affect how crypto holdings are valued during legal proceedings.
What to watch next
Expected publication of rehabilitation guidelines in the three cities and any formal adoption timelines.
Updates on any additional recoveries or legal actions tied to the phishing incident or the illegal gambling operation.
Regulatory clarifications on crypto asset valuation in debt restructurings and potential implications for individual borrowers.
Sources & verification
Chosun Ilbo English coverage on the 320.8 BTC sale and the 31.59 billion won transfer.
Official statements from the Gwangju District Prosecutors’ Office regarding the timing and rationale of the sale.
EToday reporting on rehabilitation courts’ evolving treatment of crypto losses in debt restructuring.
Market reaction and key details
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) movements in this case illustrate how public institutions are integrating digital assets into traditional financial operations. The phased sale approach aimed to minimize market impact while generating visible state revenue from assets formerly tied to criminal activity. The broader takeaway is a signal that regulatory and judicial ecosystems are adapting to the realities of crypto custody, theft, and recovery, with potential downstream effects on liquidity, investor sentiment, and the design of future enforcement actions.
Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure
Editor’s note: In the UAE market backdrop, geopolitical headlines and oil swings are driving short-term moves even as long-term fundamentals remain the guiding principle for patient investors. This piece previews the context behind the latest downdrafts in the Dubai Financial Market and Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange, highlights which sectors are leading the selling, and sets up what readers should watch as markets react to headlines and macro signals. The aim is to provide a concise, balanced view before the official press release details.
Key points
DFM down ~17% since March 4 reopening; ADX down ~6% over eight sessions.
Banking and property names led the selloff; Emaar, Emirates NBD, Dubai Islamic Bank, Aldar, and First Abu Dhabi Bank hit 5% daily limit-down.
Oil volatility and geopolitical headlines are driving sentiment; intraday moves highlight headline sensitivity.
Defensive, dividend-paying companies may offer stability during volatility.
Why this matters
Volatility is being driven by headlines and macro shifts, with Gulf markets sensitive to oil flows and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. While the market treats the oil shock as temporary, sentiment remains fragile. For long-term investors, focusing on solid balance sheets and reliable cash flows can help weather short-term turbulence, as suggested by the analyst commentary.
What to watch next
Look for de-escalation signals or policy actions that could lift Gulf market sentiment.
Monitor upcoming US CPI data and energy prices for hints on global monetary policy and oil direction.
Watch for any shifts in oil markets tied to Middle East developments that could set the tone for sentiment.
Disclosure: The content below is a press release provided by the company/PR representative. It is published for informational purposes.
UAE Markets Face Sharp Volatility as Geopolitical Headlines Drive Investor
Investors urged to focus on long-term fundamentals as regional markets react to oil swings and geopolitical developments
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates – March 10, 2026: UAE equity markets have experienced a difficult stretch in recent sessions, reflecting the heightened volatility currently dominating global financial markets. According to market analysis from eToro, the Dubai Financial Market (DFM) has fallen around 17% since reopening on March 4, marking six consecutive days of losses, while the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange (ADX) has declined close to 6% across eight straight sessions.
Banking and property stocks have led the selloff, with major names including Emaar, Emirates NBD, Dubai Islamic Bank, Aldar, and First Abu Dhabi Bank repeatedly hitting the 5% daily limit-down cap. Dubai’s real estate index has been particularly affected, dropping roughly 20% over five sessions and erasing all gains made earlier this year.
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Commenting on the current market environment, Josh Gilbert, Market Analyst at eToro, said volatility has become a defining feature of global markets.
Josh Gilbert, Market Analyst At Etoro
“Volatility is the price of entry in markets right now, and investors who understand that will be far better positioned than those who try to time their way around it. This is a market being driven by headlines and those headlines can turn on a dime, making this a particularly challenging environment for investors,” Gilbert said.
Market sentiment remains heavily influenced by geopolitical headlines. On Monday, global markets demonstrated how quickly sentiment can shift, with the S&P 500 reversing early losses to close 0.8% higher after comments from US President Donald Trump suggested that tensions with Iran could be nearing resolution. That late-session rebound has carried into Asian markets, where indices opened higher following the US recovery.
Oil markets have been at the center of recent volatility. Crude prices experienced dramatic swings during Monday’s session, trading in a nearly USD 40 range before retreating after signals of potential de-escalation in the Middle East.
“Such extreme intraday moves in oil markets highlight just how headline-driven the current environment has become,” Gilbert added. “A single comment from a political leader can reverse billions of dollars in market losses within hours.”
While higher oil prices typically strengthen fiscal positions across the Gulf region, this particular surge is different because it is tied directly to disruption within the region itself. Infrastructure, trade flows, and broader economic activity have all been affected, offsetting some of the benefits governments typically receive from higher crude prices.
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The Strait of Hormuz remains heavily disrupted, forcing several Gulf producers to scale back output, while the G7 has indicated it stands ready to release strategic petroleum reserves if supply disruptions intensify. For now, markets appear to be treating the current oil shock as temporary rather than structural, an important distinction for investors assessing the outlook.
Periods of heightened volatility can often lead investors to make decisions driven by fear. However, history shows that some of the strongest market rebounds occur immediately after the sharpest declines.
“The worst time to make investment decisions is when fear is at its highest,” Gilbert said. “Selling after a sharp market decline risks locking in losses and missing the early stages of a recovery, which can have long-term implications for portfolio performance.”
In uncertain market environments, defensive and dividend-paying companies often provide greater stability. Businesses with strong balance sheets, consistent cash flows, and resilient demand tend to perform better during periods of geopolitical stress.
“During times like this, boring can be brilliant,” Gilbert said. “Investors should be focusing on companies with strong balance sheets, reliable cash flows, and businesses that people continue to spend with regardless of geopolitical developments.”
Looking ahead, de-escalation signals could create room for a recovery in UAE markets, especially given how much negative sentiment has already been priced into equities. While the recent selling has been severe, it has also been broad-based, suggesting that any relief rally could be equally sharp.
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Investors will also be closely watching upcoming US inflation data, with the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures expected later this week. Rising energy prices have already prompted markets to reassess the outlook for interest rate cuts, and a stronger-than-expected CPI reading could further influence global monetary policy expectations.
For now, investors should expect continued volatility driven by geopolitical headlines and macroeconomic developments. However, for patient long-term investors, such periods can also present opportunities to focus on fundamentally strong companies positioned to weather short-term market turbulence.
About eToro
eToro is the trading and investing platform that empowers you to invest, share and learn. We were founded in 2007 with the vision of a world where everyone can trade and invest in a simple and transparent way. Today we have 40 million registered users from 75 countries. We believe there is power in shared knowledge and that we can become more successful by investing together. So we’ve created a collaborative investment community designed to provide you with the tools you need to grow your knowledge and wealth. On eToro, you can hold a range of traditional and innovative assets and choose how you invest: trade directly, invest in a portfolio, or copy other investors. You can visit our media centre here for our latest news.
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An Ohio federal court denied Kalshi’s bid for a preliminary injunction aimed at blocking state regulators from enforcing sports-betting contracts on the prediction markets platform. Chief Judge Sarah Morrison of the Southern District of Ohio ruled that Kalshi had not shown the platform’s sports-event contracts fall under the exclusive jurisdiction of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, at least to halt Ohio’s regulatory regime. Kalshi contended that federal commodities laws preempt state gambling statutes, a central question in the broader friction between federal oversight of prediction markets and state-licensed gaming. Kalshi said it would promptly seek an appeal, signaling that the dispute is far from settled.
Key takeaways
The Ohio court denied Kalshi’s motion for a preliminary injunction aimed at blocking the Ohio Casino Control Commission and state attorney general from regulating sports-event contracts traded on Kalshi’s platform.
The decision hinges on Kalshi failing to prove that the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) provides exclusive jurisdiction to the CFTC over sports-event contracts, or that it would preempt Ohio’s sports gambling laws.
The ruling follows broader regulatory contention, including past statements from CFTC Chair Michael Selig about the agency’s exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets and potential lawsuits against authorities challenging that view.
Kalshi signaled it would appeal the decision, noting a contrasting outcome in a Tennessee court case and stressing that the legal fight is far from over.
Regulatory momentum around prediction markets continues, with anticipation of forthcoming CFTC guidance that could clarify the federal lens on sport-related prediction markets.
Market context: The Ohio ruling arrives amid a broader regulatory conversation about how federal commodities law intersects with state gambling statutes in the niche area of prediction markets. While the CFTC has signaled a push to provide formal guidance on these markets, courts have yet to establish a consistent nationwide precedent. The case highlights the friction between states seeking to regulate gambling activities and federal authorities asserting jurisdiction over commodities contracts that sit at the center of prediction markets.
Why it matters
The decision matters because it underscores the ongoing legal ambiguity surrounding prediction markets in the United States. Kalshi, a platform that lets users bet on real-world events, argued that state-level sports betting rules could be superseded by federal commodities law, potentially allowing prediction markets to operate under a uniform federal framework. The court’s ruling does not categorically close the door on preemption; rather, it emphasizes the procedural threshold Kalshi had to clear to obtain an injunction. In practical terms, the ruling means Kalshi must contend with ongoing regulatory risk in Ohio while pursuing any appeal, rather than receiving an immediate shield from state enforcement.
The opinion also reflects the uncertainty around the CEA’s reach. The court remarked that even if sports-event contracts were swaps subject to the CFTC’s exclusive jurisdiction, it did not automatically follow that the CEA would preempt Ohio’s sports gambling statutes. This nuance matters because it points to a potential future where a plausible federal framework could coexist with state regulations, rather than rendering state laws obsolete. As the CFTC continues to develop guidance on prediction markets, platforms like Kalshi must navigate a patchwork of state rules that could complicate product design, licensing, and user access in different jurisdictions.
From the users’ perspective, the legal back-and-forth can affect liquidity, product availability, and the level of regulatory clarity that endows prediction markets with long-term viability. If courts or regulators converge on a coherent federal standard, prediction-market operators could offer markets with a clearer risk profile and potentially broader user bases. Conversely, if state authorities maintain stringent enforcement and the federal framework remains unsettled, operators may face a spectrum of compliance costs and operational constraints across the country.
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The court’s decision also echoes a broader trend in the crypto and digital asset space, where the line between gambling regulation and securities/commodities regulation continues to be a moving target. While Kalshi’s platform sits at the intersection of gaming-style bets and financial-like contracts, the question of which agency should oversee them—and under what rules—remains unsettled. The situation is further complicated by parallel actions in other states and by the CFTC’s stated intent to publish guidance that could shape the permissible contours of prediction markets in the near term.
Kalshi’s spokesperson, in a statement after the ruling, noted the company’s disagreement with the court and indicated an appeal would be pursued promptly. The spokesperson contrasted the Ohio outcome with a recent Tennessee decision that appeared more favorable to Kalshi’s position in similar regulatory disputes, underscoring how jurisdictional nuances can yield different results across states. The acknowledgment also signals that Kalshi intends to test the robustness of the court’s reasoning and the scope of CFTC preemption in subsequent filings.
“Even if this Court were to find that sports-event contracts are swaps subject to the CFTC’s exclusive jurisdiction, Kalshi has not shown that the [Commodity Exchange Act, or CEA] would necessarily preempt Ohio’s sports gambling laws,” the opinion stated, later underscoring that “Kalshi argues that Ohio’s sports gambling laws are field and conflict preempted by the CEA when it comes to sports-event contracts traded on its exchange […] Kalshi fails to establish that Congress intended the CEA to preempt state laws on sports gambling.”
Looking ahead, market observers will be watching for the CFTC’s forthcoming guidance, which regulators said would come “in the very near future.” The chair’s comments have framed a period of anticipated clarity around prediction markets, but until such guidance is issued and tested in courtrooms, Kalshi and similar platforms will remain exposed to a shifting regulatory landscape. The Tennessee decision cited by Kalshi’s representatives suggests that different judicial interpretations can shape outcomes in related disputes, dampening a single, nationwide legal narrative for now.
In sum, the Ohio ruling reinforces the central tension at the heart of prediction-market regulation: whether federal commodity laws should or must preempt state gambling statutes when the contracts traded resemble financial instruments more than traditional bets. It also highlights the practical consequences for operators who must design products to comply with divergent regulatory regimes across states while awaiting a more definitive federal framework. The interplay between state enforcement actions, anticipated federal guidance, and ongoing appellate activity will continue to drive the regulatory risk profile for prediction markets in the near term.
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Source material and court documents referenced in this coverage include the Ohio court’s order denying Kalshi’s injunction, the court document linked in Courtlistener, and public statements from Kalshi and the CFTC’s leadership. These materials provide the basis for understanding the legal arguments around preemption, jurisdiction, and the evolving regulatory posture for prediction markets in the United States.
What to watch next
Kalshi’s appeal timeline and any appellate court rulings that could influence the federal preemption question.
Results or opinions from related cases in other states, including Tennessee, that could indicate a circuit-wide trend.
Timelines and details of forthcoming CFTC guidance on prediction markets and their regulatory interpretation.
Any legislative developments at the state level that could affect the availability or legality of sports-betting contracts on prediction-market platforms.
Sources & verification
Order denying Kalshi’s preliminary injunction in the Southern District of Ohio (Court document). Verify the court’s reasoning and the specific preemption analysis.
Kalshi’s post-ruling statement indicating intent to appeal.
CFTC Chair Michael Selig’s remarks about exclusive jurisdiction and upcoming guidance on prediction markets.
A Tennessee federal court decision referenced in Kalshi’s communications regarding related actions in other states.
Courtlistener link to the court’s PDF of the Ohio ruling for primary verification.
Legal setback sharpens regulatory debate over prediction markets
In the wake of the Ohio ruling, Kalshi’s path forward hinges on a potential appeal that could bring the court’s analysis of preemption into sharper focus for federal appellate review. The decision does not rid the legal landscape of the possibility that the CEA could preempt state sports-gambling laws in certain circumstances; rather, it emphasizes that the evidence presented at this stage did not suffice to enjoin Ohio’s enforcement actions. The court’s careful delineation between exclusive CFTC jurisdiction and preemption under the CEA reflects a judiciary still calibrating how federal statutes apply to novel financial instruments that resemble bets on outcomes in the real world.
As regulators prepare to issue clearer guidance, the market will be watching for how the CFTC squares prediction-market activities with existing state licensing regimes. The evolving dialogue among federal and state authorities will help determine whether prediction markets can flourish under a unified federal framework or if divergent state rules will persist, shaping where users can access these markets and under what terms. The coming months are likely to bring more legal skirmishes, appellate briefs, and regulatory guidance that will collectively shape the trajectory of prediction markets in the United States.
For users and builders in this space, the Ohio decision is a reminder that regulatory risk remains a constant feature of the landscape. Platforms seeking to offer sports-event contracts must navigate a mosaic of legal requirements, licensing standards, and potential enforcement actions. However the same dynamics underscore the importance of clear, principles-based guidance from federal regulators to create accountability, transparency, and a sustainable path forward for prediction-market offerings in the United States.
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Global headlines may be rattling investors, but when fed with a carefully calibrated prompt, Gemini AI unlocks surprising medium-and long-term outlook for XRP, Solana, and Cardano.
According to Gemini AI, the next ten months will bring a lot of new capital into crypto thanks to a combination of technical indicators, news developments and a maturing regulatory environment.
So, here’s why Gemini just might be right.
XRP (XRP): Gemini AI Sees 10x Potential Within 10 Months
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In a recent statement, Ripple emphasized that XRP ($XRP) remains central to its strategy of turning the XRP Ledger (XRPL) into a global, enterprise-level payments infrastructure.
Source: Gemini
The company designed XRPL for fast low-cost transaction settlement, while giving it an early lead in two of crypto’s biggest use cases: stablecoins and tokenized real-world assets.
XRP is currently trading near $1.42, and Gemini’s projections indicate the asset could climb toward $15 before the end of the year, representing a more-than-tenfold increase.
Technical indicators also point toward improving momentum. XRP’s recent support and resistane lines form a bullish flag that often foreshadows a breakout.
Several price drivers to watch include sustained institutional investment via the recently launched US XRP ETFs, Ripple’s growing list of international partnerships, and the possibility of the CLARITY Act passing Congress this year.
Solana (SOL): Could Solana Double Its Previous Record in 2026?
Institutional adoption accelerated after asset managers Bitwise and Grayscale launched Solana spot ETFs in the US.
SOL experienced a steep downturn toward the end of 2025 and spent much of this February trading below $100.
Gemini’s most optimistic scenario sees Solana surging from $88 to as high as $600 by Christmas, a gain of 7x that would double SOL’s January 2025 ATH of $293.
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Supporting the long-term thesis, major financial institutions including Franklin Templeton and BlackRock have begun deploying tokenized financial products on Solana, highlighting its early advantage in a potentially ubiquitous future crypto use case.
Cardano (ADA): Gemini AI Suggests Potential Gains of Up to 1,000%
Developed by Ethereum co-founder Charles Hoskinson, Cardano ($ADA) takes a a research-driven approach to development that prioritizes academic rigor, security, scalability, and sustainability.
With a market capitalization exceeding $10 billion and more than $140 million in TVL, Cardano’s ecosystem continues growing in step with its rivals.
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Gemini’s forecast suggests ADA could rise by 826%, from roughly $0.27 today to around $2.50 by Christmas. Such a move would allow the token just below its record of $3.09 reached in 2021.
Like with all altcoins targeting institutional capital, comprehensive cryptocurrency legislation in the United States would massively expand ADA’s price prospects. Clear regulatory could also enable leading altcoins to move more independently from Bitcoin’s price cycles.
Maxi Doge: Early-Stage Meme Coin Aims for Major Breakout
If a bull run or altseason arrives, the momentum could drive the price of meme coins sky high, as they notoriously exaggerate the price movements of the wider market
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One new meme coin tipped to explode tis Maxi Doge ($MAXI). The token has already raised $4.7 million through its ongoing presale as traders bet it could unseat stalwarts like BONK or Floki.
Maxi Doge is Dogecoin’s loud, proud hard-pumping, risk-loving distant cousin, recapturing the viral degen comic culture that ignited the 2021 meme coin boom.
The is an ERC-20 asset on Ethereum’s proof-of-stake network, giving it a smaller environmental footprint than Dogecoin’s proof-of-work architecture.
Presale investors can currently stake MAXI tokens for rewards reaching as high as 67% APY, although yields gradually decrease as more tokens enter the staking pool.
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The token is $0.0002808 during the current round, with nominal price increases scheduled at each new funding round.
Is DeepSnitch AI the best AI crypto of 2026? Judging by how its presale is performing, that’s what many investors are thinking right now. The upcoming crypto is by far the most sophisticated AI implementation in the industry; one that will likely turn into a 100x crypto explosion sooner than later.
And as the last days of DeepSnitch AI’s presale are ongoing, people are rushing to take advantage of this unique opportunity before the final countdown comes to an end.
DeepSnitch AI’s launch comes amid likely rotation towards AI coins
Part of the reason why so many people are asking themselves whether DeepSnitch AI is the best AI crypto of 2026 has to do with the AI segment itself. There are numerous analyses showing that AI coins are the future; the most promising sector in crypto.
Recently, Rick Rieder, BlackRock’s Chief Investment Officer of Global Fixed Income, made the case for an upcoming AI rotation that would affect Bitcoin, even though US growth should stay resilient.
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Rick Rieder from BlackRock sees significant AI rotation coming ahead.
This AI rotation is already taking place within crypto, with coins like Near Protocol and Kite outperforming Bitcoin.
The next section reviews them as part of the top AI cryptos for 2026, along with DeepSnitch AI, whose presale is ending very soon.
AI cryptos with big upside
1. DeepSnitch AI (DSNT)
Why is DeepSnitch AI considered the best AI crypto of 2026? Simply put, because there isn’t any other crypto with the level of sophistication and market alignment that its use case entails. DeepSnitch AI is unique and revolutionary.
Many AI crypto projects have come in the last few years, but most of them end up being just interesting ideas with a coin that is traded on speculation rather than real utility. DeepSnitch AI has wholly inverted that pattern. Even though it is still at the presale stage, its product development is at the last stage.
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This is remarkable for a system of AI agents that transform crypto data into market intelligence, acting as an “investment brain”. A tool that will be available to all crypto holders worldwide, estimated at more than 600 million.
This partially explains the unusually fast numbers for DeepSnitch AI’s presale. In just its 6th stage out of 15, more than $2 million has been raised. And because the fundraising stage is still an early one, the entry price is a low $0.04399, which creates a huge upside.
Moreover, the team is giving bonuses according to the amount purchased. For instance, a $5k purchase would get a 50% bonus that will turn a 67x price increase into 100x returns.
But as more and more people are convinced that DeepSnitch AI is the best AI crypto of 2026, it’s time to act. The presale is set to end on March 31, and the clock is ticking fast.
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2. Near Protocol (NEAR)
While DeepSnitch AI is the best AI crypto of 2026, Near Protocol is clearly among the best AI crypto coins, with a remarkable performance in the last few weeks.
The NEAR token surged from $0.94 on Feb. 12 to a peak of $1.42 on Mar. 3, and it is now hovering around the $1.20 mark. This surge is in line with the rotation towards AI coins, and has put NEAR in second place among the biggest AI coins by market cap.
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3. Kite (KITE)
Kite is another AI coin that is reflecting the latest rotation towards the sector. Between Mar. 3-8, KITE rose from $0.185 to $0.317, a 71% jump in only 5 days. And this remarkable performance took place as Bitcoin was retreating from its foray above the $70,000 mark.
Thus, even if DeepSnitch AI is considered the best AI crypto of 2026, Kite remains an important option for those rotating towards the AI coin sector.
Conclusion
More and more people realise that DeepSnitch AI is the best AI crypto of 2026, with a growth potential easily exceeding 100x returns.
But the time to enjoy this unprecedented opportunity is going fast. As the presale is set to end on March 31, only those who invest now and take advantage of the bonuses (30% code: DSNTVIP30, 50% code: DSNTVIP50, 150% code: DSNTVIP150, 300% code: DSNTVIP300) will enjoy exponential returns this year.
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Visit the official website to buy into the DeepSnitch AI presale now, and visit X and Telegram for the latest community updates.
FAQs
Apart from its advanced product development, what else makes DeepSnitch AI the best AI crypto of 2026?
The most important factor is its massive market appeal. DeepSnitch AI will radically improve crypto investing for hundreds of millions worldwide.
How fast will DeepSnitch AI be adopted?
Given that DeepSnitch AI’s powerful tool is basically ready and operational, the adoption is expected to go viral in just a matter of weeks, if not days.
How much adoption would make DSNT’s price jump 100x?
The estimation is that when DeepSnitch AI reaches 1.45 million users, DSNT’s price will be around $4.5, which is more than 100x its current entry price.
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Disclaimer: This is a Press Release provided by a third party who is responsible for the content. Please conduct your own research before taking any action based on the content.
Dogecoin price approaches key Fibonacci resistance near the value area high. Weak momentum suggests exhaustion, raising the risk of a bull trap and a rotation back toward $0.08 support.
Summary
Key Resistance: DOGE testing 0.618 Fibonacci and value area high confluence.
Downside Risk: Rejection and VWAP loss could rotate price toward $0.08 support.
Dogecoin (DOGE) price is approaching a critical technical inflection point as price rallies back toward a major resistance zone. The current move has brought the meme coin back into an area where multiple previous rejections have occurred, making it an important level that could determine the next directional move.
This resistance region is defined by the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, which aligns with the value area high on the chart. When multiple technical indicators converge at the same level, it often creates a strong resistance zone where selling pressure may begin to emerge.
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As Dogecoin tests this confluence area again, traders are closely watching whether price can break through or if another rejection will send the market back toward support.
Dogecoin price key technical points
Fibonacci Resistance: DOGE testing 0.618 Fibonacci retracement aligned with the value area high.
Momentum Weakness: Price rallying with declining momentum, signaling potential exhaustion.
Range Structure: Rejection could lead to a rotation back toward $0.08 support.
Dogecoin’s current price movement is unfolding within a broader range structure that has defined the market for several weeks. During this time, price has repeatedly reacted to clearly defined technical levels, particularly around the upper resistance zone where several previous rallies have stalled.
The most recent rally has once again brought DOGE back toward this resistance region, where the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement and the value area high intersect. This type of technical confluence often creates a strong barrier for price because multiple groups of traders identify the same level as a potential area to take profits or initiate short positions.
As price approaches this level, momentum indicators are beginning to show signs of weakening. While the rally itself has been sharp, the underlying momentum does not appear to be strengthening in proportion to the move higher. In technical analysis, this type of divergence between price movement and momentum can sometimes signal that a rally is losing strength.
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Meanwhile, rising interest in Bitcoin mining in 2026 amid market volatility is also driving attention toward beginner-friendly cloud mining platforms such as Hashbitcoin, reflecting continued activity across the broader crypto ecosystem.
Another important factor to consider is the nature of the current move toward resistance. The price behavior leading into this level resembles what traders often refer to as a short squeeze. Short squeezes occur when traders holding short positions are forced to close their trades as price rises, creating a rapid upward move that is driven more by liquidations than by strong underlying buying demand.
While short squeezes can produce impressive price spikes, they often lack the sustained momentum required to break through major resistance levels. As a result, these types of rallies can sometimes turn into bull traps, where price briefly moves higher before reversing sharply once buying pressure fades.
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If Dogecoin experiences another rejection at the current resistance zone, the market may begin rotating lower once again within the established trading range. This type of rotational behavior is common in range-bound markets, where price frequently moves between support and resistance levels as liquidity shifts between buyers and sellers.
One key technical indicator to watch in the short term is the Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP). VWAP often acts as a dynamic resistance or support level that reflects the average price at which the asset has traded throughout a given period.
If Dogecoin begins closing candles below the current VWAP resistance, it would signal that bullish momentum is fading and that sellers may be regaining control of the market. In that scenario, the probability would increase for a deeper corrective move back toward the lower boundary of the range.
Meanwhile, cloud mining has shifted crypto earning from complex hardware setups to simple smartphone access, though choosing the right platform remains essential, reflecting how accessibility across the broader crypto ecosystem continues to evolve.
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What to expect in the coming price action
Dogecoin is currently testing a major resistance zone where the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement aligns with the value area high. Momentum indicators suggest that the rally may be approaching exhaustion, increasing the likelihood of another rejection.
If price fails to break above this region and begins closing below the VWAP, the market could rotate back toward the $0.08 support level, continuing the broader trading range structure.
Aave has attracted nearly $800 million in deposits since launching on Mantle a month ago.
Total value locked (TVL) on Mantle, the Ethereum Layer 2 network affiliated with the Bybit crypto exchange, reached a new all-time high on March 9, crossing the $1 billion mark for the first time at $1.06 billion, according to DefiLlama.
The surge follows the launch of Aave, the largest lending protocol in decentralized finance (DeFi), on Mantle in mid-February. As of today, Aave on Mantle has surpassed $1.2 billion in total lending and borrowing market size.
Mantle’s DeFi TVL surged nearly fourfold from $255 million in the month following the Aave integration, rising 33% in the past week alone.
An incentive program that awards MNT tokens to users who lend and borrow on the network accompanied the Aave deployment, likely accelerating inflows.
Mantle is now the 12th-largest chain by TVL, according to DefiLlama, just trailing Polygon with $1.15 billion but ahead of Avalanche, which has roughly $800 million.
Rick Rieder from BlackRock sees significant AI rotation coming ahead.
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