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How Bitcoin ETFs Are Changing Crypto Market Structure and Supply How ETFs Reshape Crypto Markets and Bitcoin Supply Flows

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Exchange-traded funds have changed how capital reaches crypto markets and how traders find prices. The arrival of spot Bitcoin ETFs opened regulated on-ramps. At the same time, a meaningful share of mined Bitcoin sits outside active markets. This report explains how ETFs alter market structure and why the effective Bitcoin float falls well short of 21 million coins.

ETFs Expand Access to Bitcoin Markets

ETFs let investors buy Bitcoin exposure through standard brokerage accounts. This structure removed custody and private-key management for many buyers. Investors then moved capital into familiar products listed on major exchanges.

Chainalysis observed that spot-ETFs drove trading volumes into the billions per day within months of launch.

Regulators and issuers created prospectuses, oversight, and audit requirements for these funds. The SEC approved multiple spot Bitcoin listings in January 2024.

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SEC Chair Gary Gensler noted the agency approved the listing and trading of a number of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded products, marking a procedural turning point for market access.

ETFs Change Liquidity and Price Formation

Authorized participants now exchange ETF shares for underlying Bitcoin. This creation/redemption mechanism links ETF flows with spot markets. Market-making firms increased activity to support arbitrage and large block trades.

Major liquidity providers helped narrow spreads and improve execution quality for institutional trades.

At the same time, ETF flows influence daily price discovery. Large inflows can bid prices upward quickly. Conversely, sustained outflows can remove demand and pressure prices. Market observers now monitor ETF net flows as part of standard price analysis. Chainalysis documented large early inflows that matched high daily trading volumes.

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ETFs Drive Institutional Bitcoin Adoption

Asset managers deployed regulated fund structures that appeal to pensions, endowments, and wealth managers. Major issuers launched competing ETFs. Institutions then allocated capital through those products rather than directly holding private keys. This shift created a concentrated pool of institutional demand routed into ETFs. Evidence shows certain ETFs grew to tens of billions in assets in under a year.

Wealth managers and broker-dealers scaled their offering and distribution channels. The result moved sizable blocks of Bitcoin into custodial arrangements under fund sponsors and their partners. This concentration affects how much supply remains available for active trading.

Custody Links Crypto to Traditional Finance

ETF issuers contracted regulated custodians, auditors, and clearing agents. Traditional financial infrastructure now supports large Bitcoin holdings. Institutional custodians apply governance, insurance, and reporting standards that differ from self-custody. These arrangements increase investor confidence and also reduce turnover in those holdings.

Market participants link ETF strategies to futures and options markets. Traders hedge ETF exposure via derivatives, which increases activity on exchanges such as the CME.

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The cross-market linkages changed intraday flow patterns and reduced fragmentation between venues.

Why is a substantial portion of Bitcoin effectively unavailable

On-chain analysis shows a nontrivial share of mined Bitcoin never moves again. Independent research finds that between three and four million BTC likely remain permanently inaccessible.

Analysts attribute these losses to forgotten keys, discarded hardware, and unrecoverable custodial accounts. These coins still exist on the ledger, but holders cannot move them.

Some of the largest examples include early-era addresses that remain dormant. Those coins reduce the usable supply relative to the 21 million cap. As a result, market participants must base liquidity assessments on the effective float, not the theoretical total.

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Long-Term Holding Shrinks Tradable Supply

Beyond permanently lost coins, many holders keep Bitcoin offline for long periods. Long-term holders now control a large portion of the circulating supply. Funds, corporate treasuries, and strategic reserves hold coins for extended horizons.

Analysts estimate U.S. spot ETFs and institutional treasuries together hold over one million BTC, which removes these coins from daily trading pools.

On-chain metrics show older UTXOs grow as new issuance slows after halving events. When holders prefer storage over trading, available liquidity declines. That scarcity amplifies price response to marginal demand.

What This Means for Bitcoin Markets

Taken together, ETF accumulation, institutional treasuries, and lost coins lower the effective supply. Analysts place the usable circulating supply below the raw mined total. Markets now respond to changes in institutional flows more than in prior cycles. This structural change raises the sensitivity of price to net inflows and outflows.

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Regulatory clarity and custody standards helped mainstream ETF adoption. Those same structures increased the proportion of Bitcoin held in long-term, low-turnover accounts. The market, therefore, shows signs of maturing.

Yet price remains sensitive to large fund flows and macro events. Observers should monitor ETF flows, custody reports, and on-chain dormancy metrics to assess liquidity and risk going forward.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Hyperliquid Jumps Following Margin Upgrade and 533% Oil Trading Surge

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Hyperliquid Jumps Following Margin Upgrade and 533% Oil Trading Surge

Hyperliquid (HYPE) token is suddenly on fire.

The token jumped to an intraday high near $35 as trading activity exploded on the platform. Volume on its oil perpetuals surged past $1.4 billion, driven by rising geopolitical tensions and wild moves in energy markets.

While most of the crypto market struggled, Hyperliquid actually benefited from the chaos. Traders piled into tokenized oil contracts, pushing daily volume close to $1.39 billion, second only to Bitcoin on the exchange.

Source: ASXN

At the same time, the platform rolled out a major upgrade to its margin system. The new portfolio margin feature is designed to make trading more capital efficient while reducing risk during extreme volatility.

Nansen analyst Nicolai Søndergaard said that dynamic scaling reduces systemic risk, making the platform safer for aggressive positioning on volatile assets.

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The Levels That Change Everything for Hyperliquid (HYPE)

HYPE is still holding strong momentum. The token is up about 5% in the last 24 hours and roughly 120% over the past year. Even while much of the crypto market struggles, the chart continues printing higher lows, keeping the broader uptrend intact.

Right now, the level everyone is watching is $35.28. That recent intraday high is the key resistance. If HYPE manages to close above it on lower timeframes, the chart opens the door toward $38 and potentially the $40 psychological level.

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On the downside, $32.50 is the main support. That area has acted as a launchpad during previous pullbacks. If it breaks, the next liquidity zone sits closer to $30. A deeper drop below $28.50 would be needed to truly damage the bullish structure.

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Part of the strength comes from growing activity on the platform itself. Open interest has climbed to around $1.2 billion as traders increasingly use Hyperliquid to trade not just crypto, but also assets like oil during major global events.

As long as trading activity stays elevated, HYPE could keep moving independently from the broader crypto market. But if volume fades, the token may struggle to defend the $32.50 floor.

Discover: The best new crypto in the world

The post Hyperliquid Jumps Following Margin Upgrade and 533% Oil Trading Surge appeared first on Cryptonews.

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History Is Rhyming: Altseason Indicators Mirror Pre-2021 Crypto Setup

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

TLDR:

  • Altseason indicator shows BTC and ETH losing dominance over the broader market. 
  • Weekly RSI divergence signals fading momentum and market compression. 
  • Market structure mirrors pre-2021 altseason patterns, hinting at rotation. 
  • Selective altcoins with strong utility may lead the next crypto expansion.

The altseason indicator update shows early signs that the crypto market may rotate away from BTC and ETH dominance toward altcoins. Historical patterns suggest momentum is weakening, and price structure is compressing ahead of potential altcoin expansion.

Market Structure Suggests Altcoin Pressure

The altseason indicator tracks the dominance of total stablecoins, BTC, and ETH relative to the broader market. It identifies when capital shifts from major coins to altcoins.

Since January, the price has moved sideways within a tight consolidation range. This mirrors the market structure seen before the 2021 altseason, where BTC and ETH dominance first formed a clear distribution zone.

Recently, the price pushed into resistance levels, suggesting a potential bull trap. The weekly RSI shows divergence from the price, signaling a gradual weakening of buying momentum.

Momentum divergence indicates the market may be coiling for a structural move. Such compression phases can last weeks, yet historically they precede rapid rotations into altcoins.

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The current setup reflects a pause between distribution and rotation. During this phase, price may appear stagnant, but capital quietly prepares for the next move.

Historical comparisons show that similar patterns led to the largest altcoin expansions of the last cycle. Dominance breakdowns often trigger rapid, aggressive capital flows into select tokens.

Market compression also makes timing uncertain. RSI and price may remain in a tight range for several weeks, yet the structural pressure continues to build.

A fading RSI often precedes volatility spikes in a classic pre-altseason environment, where leading altcoins outperform before widespread rotation.

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Tokens with strong fundamentals and relative strength against BTC and ETH often separate from weaker assets early.

Strategic Focus for the Next Altseason

If BTC and ETH dominance break down, historical trends indicate capital may rapidly move into selected altcoins. The 2021 dominance collapses caused significant gains for top-performing tokens.

Not all altcoins are likely to participate equally. Market maturity ensures capital favors projects with real utility, robust tokenomics, and strong social ecosystems.

Traders should monitor relative strength metrics. Projects outperforming BTC and ETH often lead early in rotation phases. This selective approach maximizes gains while reducing exposure to weaker assets.

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Price compression, momentum divergence, and structural similarities to past cycles suggest the market is near a decision point. Early movers may benefit significantly.

Patience is critical during this stage. Investors focusing on quality projects with strong fundamentals may profit when capital rotates rapidly into leading altcoins.

 

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Global Markets’ Volatility Surges Amid War Fears and Energy Prices Spikes

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

TLDR:

  • Global market volatility erased over $2 trillion after the Middle East war risk spiked oil prices.
  • WTI and Brent crude surged 25–31% as traders priced potential energy supply disruptions.
  • Equities fell sharply as oil spikes raised inflation and economic slowdown concerns.
  • G7 emergency oil supply signals reversed panic, restoring equity markets within hours.

Global market volatility surged as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East triggered sharp energy and equity moves. Policy signals from the G7 later reversed oil spikes, restoring trillions in value.

War fears spark sharp global market reactions

Global market volatility surged when U.S. index futures opened amid rising Middle East tensions. Traders reacted immediately to potential conflict risks affecting critical energy routes, rather than current economic conditions. 

Futures markets operate nearly 24 hours, allowing investors to price these developments before regular trading. Anticipation of supply disruptions quickly drove equities lower.

The S&P 500 fell 2.3%, erasing roughly $1.33 trillion, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 2.4%, losing $924 billion. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 2.3%, removing about $529 billion. 

Energy markets surged in parallel. WTI crude rose 31%, Brent crude 25%, and natural gas 10% as investors assessed shipping closures, sanctions, and production risks. 

These reactions reflected immediate pricing of potential global energy shortages. Leverage amplified these movements. 

Many traders entered commodity positions with high leverage, magnifying both gains and losses. Market sentiment shifts, noting that futures had priced in a full geopolitical risk premium. 

Markets moved based on expectations rather than fundamental economic changes, demonstrating how perception of risk drives trillion-dollar swings in modern trading.

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Investors focused on potential inflation spikes if oil prices remained elevated. Higher energy costs could pressure central banks to maintain restrictive rates, reduce consumer spending, and tighten corporate margins. 

This caused equities to sell off sharply, reflecting the direct link between energy prices and global market stability.

G7 coordination quickly reverses energy panic

Global market volatility reversed after the Group of Seven finance ministers signaled readiness to stabilize energy supply. Strategic petroleum reserves, especially in the U.S., were highlighted as a key tool to prevent prolonged shortages. 

Markets immediately adjusted, pricing in the likelihood that governments could mitigate supply disruptions.

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Oil prices fell roughly 32% from their highs, and natural gas dropped 13% as leveraged positions unwound. The rapid reversal reflected traders exiting panic positions once supply concerns were alleviated. 

Equities responded positively. The S&P 500 gained 3.5%, adding about $2.03 trillion, the Nasdaq Composite rose 4.35%, regaining $1.67 trillion, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 3.3%, recovering $759 billion.

Market observers noted that policy signals can shift expectations instantly. Algorithmic trading and leveraged futures amplified these movements. 

The episode illustrated how perceptions of risk, energy supply stability, and potential inflation influence prices more than immediate economic fundamentals. 

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Traders reassessed supply availability and growth expectations, showing how tightly commodities, equities, and government signals interact in real-time trading.

Global market volatility, in this case, demonstrated that perception alone can drive massive, rapid swings. 

Within hours, trillions of dollars were erased and restored, confirming how sensitive modern financial markets are to geopolitical developments and coordinated policy actions.

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ETH funding rate turns negative: Are ETH bears back in control?

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Eth Funding Rate Turns Negative: Are Eth Bears Back In Control?

Eth Funding Rate Turns Negative: Are Eth Bears Back In Control?

Ether’s price trajectory has remained tepid as institutional interest wavered and on-chain activity cooled, even as Ethereum developers push forward with upgrades designed to improve scalability and wallet security. Over the last month, the asset has struggled to sustain above $2,100, with a brief 7% uptick overshadowed by renewed selling pressure. Net outflows from spot ETFs reached roughly $225 million, underscoring dampened demand from traditional finance investors just as staking yields lag behind competing crypto yields. In parallel, on-chain metrics show a cooling in activity—base-layer fees averaged about $2.3 million weekly, down sharply from an early February peak near $8 million—while daily transaction counts hovered around 14 million.

Key takeaways

  • Ether price faces resistance to clear sustained gains above the $2,100 level, despite a temporary 7% rise in one session and signs that traders are paring leverage rather than building bullish bets.
  • ETF-related flows point to fragile institutional demand, with $225 million in net outflows versus prior inflows, as staking yields fail to outpace stablecoin alternatives.
  • Derivatives activity shows a nuanced picture: perpetual futures have trended negative, suggesting appetite for downside protection, while the 30-day options delta skew remains near neutral, indicating a cautious stance from option buyers.
  • On-chain fundamentals reveal a softer near-term environment: weekly base-layer fees around $2.3 million and a still sizeable but evolving TVL of roughly $56 billion.
  • Ethereum roadmap progress—account abstraction and the Hegota upgrades—reflects continued innovation, including plans to pay gas in non-ETH tokens and to streamline finality, though these developments have not yet sparked a meaningful uplift in demand for Ether (CRYPTO: ETH).

Ether (ETH) has traded in a narrow range after retaking a push above $2,000 and then failing to hold gains, with a persistent risk-off mood weighing on risk assets. The broader market context remains fragile, as investors weigh the appeal of staking rewards against yields available from competing crypto products. The recent ETF flows offer an imperfect gauge of institutional appetite: while some weeks show inflows, overall the trend has tilted toward net withdrawals, pressuring Ether bids on spot markets.

In the derivatives space, ETH perpetual futures dipped into negative territory on Tuesday, signaling a tilt toward bearish positioning. This metric has lingered below its neutral range of roughly 6%–12% annualized funding for the better part of a month, hinting at a lack of conviction for a sustained breakout. By contrast, the ETH options risk gauge held near the neutral zone (-6% to +6%), with puts trading at a modest premium to calls—an indication that some market participants are seeking downside protection even as broader sentiment remains unsettled. Ethereum’s total value locked (TVL) stands at about $56 billion, a figure that underscores the chain’s retained mainstream appeal even as demand ebbs and flows.

From an on-chain operations perspective, activity on the base layer has cooled. Average weekly fees settled around $2.3 million after spiking to around $8 million in early February, suggesting traders are paring activity or seeking efficiency through layer-2 solutions rather than increasing on-chain transactions in native Ether. Transaction counts over the past week hovered around 14 million, a sign that interest is not converging on a rapid upcycle at current price levels. Layer-2 rollups are central to the upgrade narrative, but the expected uplift in native Ether demand has yet to materialize in a meaningful way.

Another facet of the narrative is the evolving perception of Ethereum’s roadmap. Vitalik Buterin has indicated that account abstraction—a shift toward smart accounts that could improve user experience and security—will likely arrive within a year, after more than a decade of development. The associated Hegota fork, which introduces gas payments in non-ETH tokens via specialized DEXs, alongside a “general-purpose public mempool” and removals of certain privacy platforms’ public broadcasters, could alter how users pay for transactions and how data is organized on-chain. These changes, if implemented smoothly, may gradually reduce bottlenecks and enhance privacy, but they have not yet translated into a decisive pickup in Ether demand.

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Market participants also weigh the health of the Ethereum treasury and governance-related developments. Sharplink (SBET US), the treasury vehicle linked to Ethereum insiders and chaired by a figure closely tied to the ecosystem, reported a net loss of $735 million in 2025. The setback underscores the risk profile of on-chain treasuries and the potential liquidity challenges that can accompany large-scale treasury management operations in a bear market environment. While this is not a direct price driver, it does color investors’ confidence in Ethereum’s ecosystem funding and long-term sustainability.

Beyond upgrades and funding dynamics, the slow pace of native-chain scalability improvements has tempered enthusiasm for Ether. The market has been watching for concrete progress on account abstraction and related scalability shims, while also keeping an eye on gas economics within cross-chain constructs. In this environment, Ether’s momentum has remained constrained, with the broader crypto market wrestling with risk sentiment and macro considerations that influence ETF inflows, staking yields, and liquidity conditions across the sector.

The confluence of tepid price action, cautious ETF flows, and evolving protocol upgrades suggests Ether is navigating a transitional period: the anticipation of structural improvements is real, but immediate demand catalysts have not yet arrived. The absence of a strong directional breakout—despite some positive signals around network upgrades and security improvements—points to a market that is waiting for clearer catalysts or a shift in macro liquidity to re-energize bids for Ether.

Why it matters

For investors, the current environment highlights the importance of differentiating between short-term price momentum and long-run network value. Ethereum remains the dominant platform for smart contracts and decentralized applications, with TVL and developer activity continuing to anchor the ecosystem—even as near-term demand indicators show fragility. The ongoing upgrades, particularly around account abstraction and gas-payment innovations, could, if fully realized, lower friction for users and merchants and help rebuild confidence in Ethereum’s on-chain utility.

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From a builder’s perspective, the roadmap emphasizes security, efficiency, and privacy enhancements that could unlock new use cases and improve end-user experience. The Hegota upgrade, with its approach to gas payments and mempool management, signals a willingness to rethink fundamental economics and data flows on the network. If governance and implementation proceed smoothly, developers could accelerate rollouts of scalable dApps, which in turn may attract new capital and spur renewed demand for Ether.

For the market as a whole, Ethereum’s trajectory continues to influence how investors evaluate layer-1 chains and the broader risk appetite in crypto markets. ETF dynamics, staking options, and on-chain metrics will remain intertwined with macro cycles, regulatory developments, and the pace at which scalability improvements translate into tangible user adoption. In this environment, ETH’s performance will depend on a mix of technical progress, product-market fit for layer-2 solutions, and the capacity of institutional participants to translate macro liquidity into constructive demand rather than speculative positions alone.

What to watch next

  • Follow updates on the US ETF staking pathway and any subsequent inflows or outflows in the coming quarters to gauge institutional appetite for Ether exposure.
  • Monitor progress on account abstraction finality and the timeline for the Hegota fork, including any security or privacy-related milestones.
  • Track layer-2 adoption metrics, including transaction throughput and fee dynamics, to assess whether these solutions effectively translate into higher on-chain activity for Ether.
  • Observe changes in staking reward economics relative to competing yield sources, and any shifts in stablecoin yields that influence capital allocation within crypto treasuries.
  • Watch governance and treasury developments surrounding Sharplink and other ecosystem vehicles for potential spillovers into market sentiment and long-term funding models.

Sources & verification

  • Laevitas.ch data on ETH perpetual futures funding rates and the associated market dynamics referenced in the discussion of negative territory.
  • Laevitas.ch ETH 30-day options delta skew data used to illustrate risk sentiment and option market positioning.
  • Stablecoin yield comparisons, particularly Sky Lending (formerly MakerDAO), with yields around 3.75% versus staking at roughly 2.8%.
  • Reported 2025 net loss of Sharplink (SBET US) at $735 million, as noted in the article’s references to ecosystem treasury performance.

Ethereum market reaction and key details

Ether (CRYPTO: ETH) has faced a challenging backdrop in recent weeks as ETF outflows and a cautious risk appetite converge with ongoing protocol evolution. The ongoing debate over how best to price and pay gas — including considerations around non-ETH payment options and the potential for a public mempool—frames investors’ expectations for near-term catalysts. While the fundamentals point to a robust long-term role for Ethereum in decentralized finance and smart contracts, the near-term price action suggests traders are prioritizing risk management over aggressive exposure. For now, the market is awaiting clearer signals from upgrades, regulatory movements, and institutional flows before committing to a sustained bid higher than the current range around the $2,000s to $2,200s band.

Market participants should continue to monitor the evolving relationship between staking economics and competing yields, as well as the degree to which Layer-2 ecosystems translate on-chain activity into meaningful Ether demand. In addition, the health of the Ethereum treasury and governance actions surrounding major ecosystem initiatives will be important for assessing long-term resilience and strategic direction. The next steps for Ethereum hinge on delivering scalable, secure, and user-friendly improvements that can convert optimism about upgrades into tangible use cases and capital inflows.

This article was originally published as ETH funding rate turns negative: Are ETH bears back in control? on Crypto Breaking News – your trusted source for crypto news, Bitcoin news, and blockchain updates.

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Ripple Seeks Australian Financial License via Acquisition

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Ripple Seeks Australian Financial License via Acquisition

Crypto company Ripple said it is set to secure a key financial services license in Australia through the acquisition of an Australian payments firm, adding to an international license grab over the last year.

In a statement on Tuesday, Ripple said it will buy BC Payments Australia, a corporate entity tied to the European Banking Circle Group, allowing it access to the company’s Australian Financial Services License (AFSL), which is set to become a requirement for certain crypto companies to provide financial services in the country.

The acquisition of BC Payments Australia is set to close on April 1, according to a report from The Australian, citing comments from Ripple APAC managing director Fiona Murray.

Murray said there was “enough institutional interest in digital assets to warrant the investment for us.”

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“Getting licensed was always part of our plan.”

In Ripple’s statement, Murray said “Australia is a key market for Ripple” and that an AFSL would strengthen the company’s ability to scale its payments business throughout the country.

“With the AFSL in place, Ripple Payments can manage the full lifecycle of a transaction, from onboarding and compliance through funding, FX, liquidity management, and final payout, while integrating both traditional banking rails and digital assets.”

Ripple has been working to expand its collection of international licenses over the last year.

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In addition to recently securing conditional approval for a national trust banking charter in the US, Ripple has also won payment licenses in Singapore, the UAE and the UK over the last 12 months.

The firm has also been working to expand use cases for XRP (XRP) and its Ripple USD (RLUSD) stablecoin through key acquisitions in recent months, most notably non-bank prime broker Hidden Road and corporate treasury platform GTreasury.

The acquisition of Hidden Road — now Ripple Prime — made Ripple the first crypto-native company to own and run a multi-asset prime broker, covering everything from clearing, financing and brokerage across digital assets, derivatives, swaps, foreign exchange, and fixed-income products for institutional clients.