Against the backdrop of military developments in the Middle East, the situation in the oil market is evolving rapidly. Only two days have passed since 9 March, when we published a morning analytical note in which we:

→ highlighted the rise of XTI/USD above $100 and a sharp spike in volatility (as reflected by the ATR indicator);
→ outlined an ascending channel and pointed to signs of a bearish engulfing pattern, suggesting that sellers were gaining the initiative.

Subsequent price action in the following hours confirmed that selling pressure was strong enough to break below the lower boundary of the channel later that same day. This occurred amid statements from President Trump, and a wide bearish candle formed on the XTI/USD chart.

On 10 March, the former lower boundary of the channel (marked by red arrows) acted as resistance while traders closely monitored developments around the Strait of Hormuz. According to The Wall Street Journal, the International Energy Agency proposed the largest oil reserve release in its history, which added another bearish factor for the market.

Technical Analysis of the XTI/USD Chart

Today the oil market remains highly volatile. Although the ATR indicator is pointing lower, its readings remain far above typical levels.

The sequence of lower highs and lower lows in WTI prices over the past 36 hours outlines the structure of a potential downward trajectory (shown in red). However, the chart also suggests that sustained downside momentum remains uncertain. This is reflected in the aggressive rebound from yesterday’s low.

It is possible that the XTI/USD price may continue to fluctuate within the orange range defined by the bearish candle formed on 9 March until significant news emerges that could shift the current balance in the market. In particular, traders remain focused on the risks of further escalation of the conflict in the Middle East.

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