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How Will Bitcoin’s Price React as US CPI for February Matches Expectations?

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BTCUSD Mar 11. Source: TradingView


BTC experienced minor initial volatility after the numbers went out.

The United States Labor Department released the highly anticipated Consumer Price Index numbers for February, the last such data before the upcoming FOMC meeting next week.

Interestingly, experts nailed the actual numbers, with a 0.3% increase for February and a 2.4% rise year-over-year.

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The increase for the previous month was slightly higher than the number for January (0.2%). Core CPI, which excludes more volatile sectors like food and energy, rose 0.2%, also matching the forecasts. In contrast, January’s increase was slightly higher MoM (0.3%).

The single-largest component of the regular CPI, shelter, jumped by 0.2% monthly and 3% annually, while rent rose by 0.1%, which is the lowest monthly increase in over five years.

Given the matched expectations, experts now believe the US Federal Reserve will keep the key interest rates unchanged during its next FOMC meeting, scheduled for the following week.

Bitcoin’s price reacted with minor volatility immediately after the Labor Department published the data for February, going from $69,000 to $69,800, where it was stopped and pushed back to around $69,300 as of press time.

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It appears that the inflation data does not impact its price moves as much as it used to, as global financial markets are focused on the ongoing war between the US and Israel on one side, and Iran on the other.

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BTCUSD Mar 11. Source: TradingView
BTCUSD Mar 11. Source: TradingView

 

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Crypto World

February CPI Holds at 2.4% as Oil Shock Complicates Fed Rate Outlook

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

TLDR:

  • February CPI rose 2.4% YoY with core inflation at 2.5%, remaining above the Fed’s 2% target. 
  • Monthly CPI growth slowed slightly, aided by stable vehicle prices and lower rental inflation. 
  • Rising oil prices after the Iran conflict may push March inflation higher than February levels. 
  • Weak payroll growth and higher unemployment complicate the Fed’s March 18 policy decision.

February CPI data showed stable inflation in the United States during February. The figures matched expectations and indicated slower price growth.

However, rising oil prices and weaker employment data now place the Federal Reserve in a difficult position before its March policy meeting.

February CPI Shows Cooling Trend Before Energy Shock

February CPI increased 2.4% compared with the same period last year. The figure matched January’s reading and aligned with market expectations. 

Core inflation also remained steady at 2.5%, still above the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target. Monthly price growth reached 0.3% in February after a 0.2% increase in January.

Core CPI rose 0.2%, slightly lower than the previous month. Lower rental inflation and stable vehicle prices helped keep monthly increases relatively moderate.

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Some consumer categories still experienced rising costs. Grocery prices climbed 0.4% during February and rose 2.4% compared with a year earlier. 

Clothing prices also increased sharply, rising 1.3% during the same month. Energy prices moved higher during February but remained manageable. 

Gasoline prices increased 0.8% during the month yet remained lower than last year’s levels. These numbers represent conditions before the recent geopolitical conflict affected global energy markets.

Bull Theory noted the timing challenge surrounding the data release. The post stated that the Federal Reserve received the “perfect inflation report at the worst possible time.”

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Oil Price Surge and Weak Jobs Data Complicate Fed Decision

Energy markets changed rapidly after the conflict involving Iran began near the end of February. Shipping disruptions in the Persian Gulf pushed oil prices sharply higher within days. 

Energy costs, therefore, started rising after the February CPI measurement period ended.

Oil prices briefly approached $120 per barrel before falling back to near $87. 

The market remains unstable because shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz face ongoing risks. Around 20% of global oil shipments normally pass through this route.

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Fuel prices are already increasing in the United States. The national average price for regular gasoline reached about $3.58 per gallon. 

That represents an increase of roughly 20% within one month. Higher fuel costs often affect transportation, logistics, and airline travel. 

Businesses may also experience higher shipping expenses if energy prices remain elevated. Economists, therefore, expect fuel costs to influence inflation in the next report.

At the same time, labor market data shows signs of slowing. Payroll growth reached only 58,000 jobs in February, far below expectations of 126,000. 

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The unemployment rate also rose to 4.4%. The Bull Theory summarized that policymakers now face three signals: cooling inflation, weakening jobs, and rising energy costs.

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VanEck Crypto ETPs Reach 401(k) Investors via Basic Capital

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VanEck Crypto ETPs Reach 401(k) Investors via Basic Capital

VanEck has made some of its digital asset exchange-traded products (ETPs) available to 401(k) holders in the United States, signaling a push to integrate crypto-focused investments into traditional retirement accounts.

On Wednesday, the fund issuer said a selection of its digital asset ETPs will be offered through Basic Capital, a fintech platform that provides employer-sponsored 401(k) plans.

The companies did not specify which VanEck digital asset ETPs will be available on the platform. Within crypto, VanEck is best known for the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) and the VanEck Ethereum Trust (ETHV), its spot Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

The asset manager also offers the VanEck Digital Transformation ETF (DAPP), often referred to as its “Onchain Economy” ETF, which invests in companies involved in the digital asset ecosystem. 

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VanEck expanded its crypto product lineup earlier this year by launching a spot Avalanche ETF in the United States. 

The US Department of Labor in May backtracked on previous federal guidance that discouraged 401(k) plan providers from offering crypto among their investment options.

Source: VanEck

Basic Capital was founded in 2021 and raised $25 million in a Series A funding round last year led by venture capital firms Forerunner and Lux Capital. The company’s 401(k) platform gives investors access to alternative assets beyond traditional stocks and bonds.

Related: Ethereum is very much ‘the Wall Street token,’ VanEck CEO says

Policy shift opens retirement plans to alternative assets

The move comes amid growing regulatory momentum to integrate digital assets into traditional retirement planning.

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In August, US President Donald Trump signed an executive order directing federal agencies to expand access to alternative assets in 401(k) plans, including digital assets.

The directive called on agencies such as the Treasury Department and the Securities and Exchange Commission to coordinate on potential rule changes to support the broader adoption of alternative investments in retirement accounts.

The policy shift comes as more Americans rely on workplace retirement plans to build long-term savings.

Employer-sponsored defined contribution plans held about $13.9 trillion in assets as of September, including roughly $10 trillion in 401(k) plans, according to the Investment Company Institute.

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401(k) plans are grouped under Defined Contribution (DC) plans. Source. Investment Company Institute

Separate data from Vanguard’s “How America Saves 2025” report suggests savings rates are also rising. Nearly half (45%) of participants increased their contribution rates in 2024, reflecting the growing use of automatic contribution features in employer plans.

Related: Crypto’s 2026 investment playbook: Bitcoin, stablecoin infrastructure, tokenized assets