Crypto World
STRC May Help Strategy Get to 1 Million Bitcoin Faster, Beating BlackRock
Michael Saylor’s Strategy (MSTR) may reach the 1 million Bitcoin (BTC) milestone faster than expected, potentially overtaking BlackRock in total holdings.
Key takeaways:
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STRC share sales have generated cash to acquire over 3,500 BTC so far this week.
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Strategy’s implied buying power could rise to roughly 5,700 BTC per day at Tuesday’s record pace.
Rising STRC demand implies 1,940 BTC of daily buying power
Strategy currently holds 738,731 BTC, including the 17,994 BTC purchase announced on Monday. Meanwhile, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) holds 775,156 BTC, or roughly 36,500 BTC more than Strategy today.
But a relatively new instrument, Strategy’s STRC preferred stock, is helping close that gap faster.
STRC currently pays an 11.50% annual dividend, distributed monthly in cash.
The dividend rate adjusts every month to encourage the stock to trade near its $100 par value, which helps limit volatility. Strategy uses the proceeds from the share sales to buy Bitcoin.
Just this week, Strategy is estimated to have purchased over 3,500 BTC after selling roughly 6 million STRC shares through its at-the-market (ATM) program, data resource STRC.LIVE shows.
Among the top STRC buyers is Bitcoin investment firm Strive.
On Wednesday, chief risk officer Jeff Walton said they acquired $50 million in STRC, noting that the allocation would generate about $5.75 million in annual income at STRC’s current yield.
That is higher than roughly $1.85 million from 13-week T-bills, a difference of about $3.90 million per year.
On Tuesday, STRC logged a record $409 million daily volume and a $138.5 million 30-day average.
Using the $138.5 million average daily trading volume and a Bitcoin price near $71,000, STRC could theoretically buy roughly 1,940 BTC per trading day, more than four times Bitcoin’s daily mined supply.
On days when STRC trading approaches its $409 million record, the implied buying power rises to around 5,700 BTC, or nearly 13 times daily mining supply.
At this rate, Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings can surpass the 1 million BTC mark by August, likely leaving behind BlackRock as well.
MSTR may tap $145.1 trillion fixed-income market
STRC may soon start competing with the traditional fixed-income markets, according to analyst Adam Livingston.
Global fixed-income markets outstanding reached $145.1 trillion in 2024, and US fixed income outstanding was $48.9 trillion as of Q3 2025, Livingston said in a Wednesday post, adding:
“If products like STRC eventually attract even 0.1% of global fixed income outstanding, that is $145.1 billion. At $71.2K per Bitcoin, that amount of capital would be enough to buy roughly 2.04 million BTC, purely as a scale illustration.”
STRC still carries risk for investors
In its disclaimer, Strategy warned that STRC doesn’t guarantee returns, noting that it is “neither a bank deposit, nor FDIC insured, nor regulated in the same way.”
Additionally:
“It does not have the same regulatory and other protections as bank accounts, money market funds, treasuries, or similar instruments and as a result may not be a comparable investment.”
Strategy Analyst ColinTalksCrypto also warned that STRC can cut the dividend, its share price can fall below its $100 par value, and Strategy can issue more shares that dilute existing holders.
I’ve been seeing a lot of euphoric bullposting about $STRC.
It’s an interesting financial product, but I will be the black sheep and state that I personally feel it’s too risky of an investment.$STRC doesn’t really give you any guarantees (despite seeming like guaranteed fixed…
— 𝙲𝚘𝚕𝚒𝚗 𝚃𝚊𝚕𝚔𝚜 𝙲𝚛𝚢𝚙𝚝𝚘 🪙 (@ColinTCrypto) March 10, 2026
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
Crypto World
BTC price looks resilient, but don’t ignore those $20,000 put options: Crypto Daybook Americas
By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
Ultra-bearish forecasts are getting no love from industry observers, and rightly so, with bitcoin holding resilient amid global market chaos. Yet options flows hint there may be merit to the bears’ dire warnings.
Bloomberg reiterated its prediction for the largest cryptocurrency to plunge to $10,000 — a level last seen in mid-2020. Industry observers dismissed it as silly.
Yet on Deribit, the biggest crypto options exchange, nearly $800 million in open interest is piled into the $20,000 put, a wager that the price will slide to below that level. It’s the fourth-most popular bearish bet on the platform.
It signals some traders are preparing for a meltdown. That said, not all are outright bets on a price crash, Deribit said.
“The majority of that positioning appears to be short puts rather than directional long hedges, said Sidrah Fariq, Deribit’s global head of retail sales. “Traders often sell very far OTM puts because the probability of hitting those levels is low.”
In the meantime, though, bitcoin is showing uncanny resilience, holding steady around $70,000 even as a renewed oil rally pushed crude benchmarks toward $100 early today and rattled traditional markets. Ether (ETH), XRP, and solana (SOL) are similarly firm, while Hyperliquid’s HYPE token steals the spotlight with gains of around 10% over 24 hours.
Analysts say excess leverage is flushing out of BTC, paving the way for upside.
“From a market structure perspective, this type of consolidation can be constructive because reducing leveraged positioning tends to create a more stable foundation for the next move once a clearer macro catalyst emerges,” Diana Pires, VP of sales at crypto platform sFOX, said in an email.
In traditional markets, oil volatility looks to be spilling over into bonds. The MOVE index, measuring the 30-day expected volatility in U.S. Treasury notes, which underpin global finance, has surged to 76 from under 60 in late February. This could lead to financial tightening worldwide, putting pressure on risk assets. Stay alert!
Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today
What to Watch
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.
- Crypto
- March 12: Polakdot’s economic upgrade to start rolling out, featuring a DOT supply cap, an emissions cut and unbonding reduction.
- March 12, 1 p.m.: MARA to host an X Spaces session with its CEO, CFO, and Chief Growth & Strategy Officer.
- March 12: BOB mainnet to undergo its Jovian hardfork.
- Macro
- March 12, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. initial jobless claims for week ending March 7 Est. 215K (Prev. 213K)
- March 12, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. balance of trade for January Est. -$66.6B (Prev. -$70.3B)
- March 12, 4:30 p.m.: Fed balance sheet for period ending March 11 (Prev. $6.63T)
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
- March 12: Cango (CANG), post-market, -$0.34
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.
- Governance votes & calls
- Arbitrum DAO is voting to establish an operational directive that automatically consolidates idle and surplus non-ARB funds from DAO initiatives directly into the Arbitrum Treasury Management Company (ATMC) portfolio. Voting ends March 12.
- Arbitrum DAO is voting to implement a delegated voting power (DVP) quorum model, update its constitution, and enable onchain proposal cancellation. Voting ends March 12.
- CoW DAO is voting on a swap affiliate program to reward affiliates who refer new retail traders and traders who reach qualifying volume milestones, with up to 500,000 USDC allocated over a six-month pilot. Voting ends March 12.
- World Liberty Financial DAO is voting to introduce a WLFI governance staking system requiring unlocked token holders to stake (minimum 180-day lock) to participate in governance. Voting ends March 12.
- Unlocks
- Token Launches
- March 12: ForU AI’s (FORU) token generation event occurs.
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.
Market Movements
- BTC is up 0.12% from 4 p.m. ET Wednesday at $70,400.41. (24hrs: +1.11%)
- ETH is unchanged at $2,071.35 (24hrs: +2.21%)
- CoinDesk 20 is down 0.4% at 2,008.02 (24hrs: +1.32%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 1 bps at 2.79%
- BTC funding rate is at -0.0048% (-5.2188% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is unchanged at 99.36
- Gold futures are up 0.43% at $5,189.60
- Silver futures are up 2.38% at $87.09
- Nikkei 225 closed down 1.04% at 54,452.96
- Hang Seng closed down 0.70% at 25,716.76
- FTSE 100 is down 0.33% at 10,320.02
- Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.43% at 5,769.83
- DJIA closed on Wednesday down 0.61% at 47,417.27
- S&P 500 closed unchanged at 6,775.80
- Nasdaq Composite closed unchanged at 22,716.13
- S&P/TSX Composite closed down 0.45% at 33,119.80
- S&P 40 Latin America closed unchanged at 7,501.64
- U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 7 bps at 4.21%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.38% at 6,753.75
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.35% at 24,896.00
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 0.48% at 47,221.00
Bitcoin Stats
- BTC Dominance: 59.23% (-0.08%)
- Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.02929 (0.2%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,020 EH/s
- Hashprice (spot): $30.46
- Total fees: 2.8 BTC / $196,480
- CME Futures Open Interest: 108,220 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 13.5 oz.
- BTC vs gold market cap: 4.67%
Technical Analysis
- The chart shows XRP’s daily price swings in candlestick format with Bollinger bands, which are volatility bands placed two standard deviations above and below the 20-day average of price.
- The gap between Bollinger bands is now narrowest since early November 2024.
- The tighter the bands, the more explosive the eventual breakout. In other words, a big move (volatility) could be brewing in XRP.
Crypto Equities
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Wednesday at $198.63 (+1.07%), –1.28% at $196.08 in pre-market
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $21.46 (–1.69%), –0.75% at $21.30
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $8.55 (–0.23%), –1.40% at $8.43
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $14.81 (+1.16%), –0.74% at $14.70
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $16.54 (+6.99%), –1.45% at $16.30
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.81 (+1.87%), –1.22% at $9.69
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $10.91 (–0.18%), +14.48% at $12.49
- CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF (WGMI): closed at $38.92 (+4.18%), –2.29% at $38.03
- Circle Internet Group (CRCL): closed at $112.81 (–4.47%), +0.30% at $113.15
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $37.19 (+1.25%), –1.05% at $36.80
Crypto Treasury Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $138.33 (–0.09%), –0.56% at $137.55
- Strive Asset Management (ASST): closed at $9.23 (+2.78%)
- SharpLink (SBET): closed at $7.59 (+2.71%), –1.45% at $7.48
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $1.03 (+9.46%), –1.94% at $1.01
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.17 (+0.00%), –1.71% at $1.15
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs
- Daily net flows: $115.2 million
- Cumulative net flows: $55.88 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~ 1.28 million
Spot ETH ETFs
- Daily net flows: $57 million
Cumulative net flows: $11.68 billion
Total ETH holdings ~ 5.65 million
Source: Farside Investors
While You Were Sleeping
The derivatives market on leading digital assets exchange Binance is doing more than five times the business of spot, hinting at volatile market conditions.
The futures-to-spot volume ratio on the exchange has risen to approximately 5.1, its highest level since mid-2023, CryptoQuant data shows.
The ratio is an indicator of the type of market participants are trading in. When derivatives dominate at this scale, price discovery is increasingly driven by leveraged positioning rather than outright buying and selling. That doesn’t make the moves less real, but it does make them more reactive.
The result is a market that can see outsized volatility, often swinging wildly to end up exactly where it started, which is roughly what bitcoin has done for the past month.
Derivatives growth on Binance reflects broader industry maturation as more participants use perpetuals for hedging, basis trading, and directional exposure. But when the derivatives layer grows 20% while spot stays flat, the market’s sensitivity to liquidation events increases, which helps explain why recent moves have been large in size but short in duration.
The broader on-chain picture adds context. CryptoQuant data shows apparent demand remains negative at -30,800 BTC on a 30-day basis. Supply in loss is climbing toward levels that have historically preceded extended downturns rather than marking bottoms.
Data from earlier this month tracked by Santiment showed whales sold 66% of their war-week accumulation into the $74,000 rally while retail bought the dip below $70,000.
Bitcoin was trading at $69,400 on Thursday, down 0.7% over the past 24 hours and 4.3% on the week.
Bitcoin ($BTC) is banging against the $70,000 door, but the surging cost of oil in the macro environment just changed the locks.
With oil prices reaching dangerously close to $100 per barrel amidst escalating geopolitical tensions, the asset’s recovery rally is stalling out as risk assets feel the heat of renewed inflation fears.
While bulls are defending the lower bounds of the range, the path to a new all-time high has suddenly become steeper.
The correlation between energy markets and crypto risk appetite is tightening, creating a standoff between spot demand and macro anxiety. But one level keeps getting in the way.
Discover: The best pre-launch crypto sales
How Oil at $100 Is Changing the Risk Equation for Bitcoin
The mechanism choking the Bitcoin price recovery is straightforward but brutal. Rising crude oil prices feed directly into consumer costs, keeping inflation sticky.
When energy costs spiked this week, they effectively tied the hands of the Federal Reserve. Markets that were pricing in rate cuts are now forced to reconsider the FOMC stance for the upcoming March meeting, sending tremors through risk-on assets.
This macro friction is palpable across trading desks. As analysts noted regarding recent inflation reports, any sign of persistent CPI pressure gives the Fed license to keep rates higher for longer, a scenario that historically drains liquidity from crypto markets.
The fear isn’t just theoretical; it’s visible in the immediate “risk-off” rotation occurring in futures markets.
Traders are reacting in real-time. Recent data shows that Hyperliquid saw a jump in activity following an oil trading surge, highlighting how crypto natives are increasingly hedging their exposure to real-world commodities.
If oil breaches the psychological $100/bbl barrier, the resulting volatility could strip away the leverage needed to push BTC through overhead BTC resistance.
On-Chain Metrics Tell a Different Story
While macro economics paint a grim picture, on-chain data suggests a supply shock is silently building.
Long-term holder supply has ticked up to 14.58 million BTC, or approximately 73% of the circulating supply.
This indicates that while feeble hands are panic-selling the oil news, veterans are digging in.
More telling is the formation of a massive support cluster: about 8% of the circulating supply, or 1.558 million BTC, was acquired between $60,000 and $70,000, creating a concrete floor that makes a deep correction less likely than in previous cycles.
Institutional flows further complicate the bear case. Even as oil jitters rattled the S&P 500, Bitcoin has outperformed gold and stocks since the US/Iran war, signalling a potential decoupling where BTC is viewed as a distinct hedge rather than just a high-beta tech stock.
This aligns with Arthur Hayes’ strategy on net liquidity, suggesting that savvy capital is looking past the immediate volatility toward the inevitable monetary expansion that follows supply shocks.
The sell-side pressure is also thinning. Exchange reserves have hit multi-year lows, meaning there are fewer coins available for dumping if panic sets in. The weak hands have largely exited; what remains constitutes the conviction trade.
Discover: The very best meme coins
Bitcoin Price Prediction: Can BTC Break $71,600 With Oil This High?
The chart structure for Bitcoin is currently a battle of attrition within a tightening range. BTC is oscillating around the $70,000 psychological level, but the real line in the sand is slightly higher.
Bull Scenario: The key BTC resistance to watch is $71,600. If bulls can force a daily close above this level, it invalidates the short-term bearish divergence caused by the oil shock.
Bear Scenario: Conversely, if the macro headwinds prove too strong, failure to hold the $68,500 local support could be disastrous.
Losing this level would likely trigger a cascade of long liquidations, dragging the price down to $60,000 and seriously challenging the final local frontier for immediate support.
The post Oil Surges Near $100 Stalling Bitcoin Breakout appeared first on Cryptonews.
Market analysts say Bitcoin (BTC) is in a relief rally after its 17% recovery from multi-year lows below $60,000, but the $78,000 level is key to reversing the broader downtrend.
Key takeaways:
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Bitcoin price is up 17% from sub-$60,000 lows as onchain data shows signs of returning demand.
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BTC price resistance around $78,000 must be broken to end the downtrend.
Bitcoin buyers are returning
Bitcoin’s net taker volume suggests buyers are stepping in as demand for BTC derivatives returned, data from CryptoQuant shows.
Net taker volume, a metric that measures the imbalance between aggressive buyers and sellers in derivatives markets, has remained positive since the US and Israel-Iran war began.
Related: Three Bitcoin Binance charts reveal the setup behind the next big move
“Since the conflict broke out, net taker volume as measured by the 30-day moving average has been positive,” CEO at Coinbureau Nic Puckrin said in an X post on Wednesday.
This positive regime coincided with the recent BTC price recovery to $74,000, indicating that demand has returned across derivatives markets.
“This shows taker buy volume has outpaced sell volume,” Puckrin said, adding:
“Bitcoin buyers are in control.”
The bull score index, a metric that measures Bitcoin’s overall market health using a combination of fundamental and technical metrics, further reinforces this picture.
The metric has increased to 30 from 10 on March 6, the highest since late October 2025.
The bull score index phase has “switched from ‘extra bearish’ to ‘bearish,’” said CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno, adding:
“We are still in a bear market, but in a relief rally.”
Meanwhile, demand for spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) continues, with these investment products recording three straight days of inflows, totalling $529.2 million.
BTC price must break $78,000 to end downtrend
Data from TradingView shows that Bitcoin has spent more than four weeks consolidating within a $62,000–$72,000 range, with multiple failed attempts to sustain a strong footing above $70,000.
Zooming out, the price remains sandwiched between the realized price (average acquisition cost of all circulating supply) at $54,400 and true market mean (the cost basis of actively transacted coins) at $78,000, Glassnode said in its latest Week On-chain newsletter, adding:
“In the absence of broader macro headwinds, this range could plausibly support a bear market relief rally capped by the true market mean.”
The chart above shows that the BTC price was within these two cost-basis levels for most of 2023, with relief rallies being repeatedly rejected at the true market mean. Ultimately, the price broke out in October 2023, with the announcement of US spot Bitcoin ETF approvals as the main catalyst.
Trader and analyst Titan of Crypto said a break above $78,000-$80,000 could signal a long-term trend change.
Yesterday, Cointelegraph reported that Bitcoin’s upside could be capped at $78,000, with derivatives traders pricing low odds for a BTC price breakout past this level in the near term.
In the meantime, Glassnode said repeated failures to hold above $70,000 “tilts the mid-term return distribution toward the downside,” with the realized price at $54,000 serving as the primary support level to watch.
Other areas of interest include the 200-week exponential moving average at $68,300, the $60,000-65,500 demand zone and the 200-week simple moving average at $58,800, which has historically provided the last line of defense in macro drawdowns.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
The state of Utah is moving to shut down prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket as part of a broader clash over how this evolving sector should be regulated. The legislative push, marked by HB243 (Gambling Revisions), would redefine “proposition betting” as gambling, aiming to bar platforms that host event-based bets—whether framed as prediction markets or sportsbooks—from operating in the state. The Utah House cleared the bill on February 10, followed by Senate approval on February 27, setting the stage for a gubernatorial signature. Governor Spencer Cox signaled his support, framing the move as a shield against what he described as risky, youth-targeting gaming products. The episode adds to a growing patchwork of state actions that intersect with federal authority over derivatives and fintech platforms.
Key takeaways
- Utah advances HB243, redefining proposition betting as gambling and barring platforms offering prediction-like services within the state.
- Kalshi has filed suit against Utah, contending its event contracts are federally regulated derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act, not gambling.
- The Commodity Futures Trading Commission maintains that it has exclusive authority over prediction markets, framing them as potential conduits for information discovery, and indicating readiness to defend this stance in court.
- Similar clashes are unfolding in other states, including Iowa, and a series of federal court cases in Ohio have shaped the legal landscape around enforcement and jurisdiction.
- The regulatory tension highlights how crypto-adjacent markets—where prediction and derivatives intersect—could be affected by evolving governance and enforcement priorities.
Tickers mentioned:
Sentiment: Neutral
Market context: Regulatory scrutiny of prediction markets sits at the intersection of consumer protection, gambling law, and financial-market oversight, with federal authorities signaling a willingness to assert jurisdiction while states pursue their own legislative fixes.
Why it matters
Utah’s move crystallizes a broader narrative about how governments will treat platforms that blend prediction, gambling-style mechanics, and financial exposure. While proponents view prediction markets as tools for aggregating information—potentially offering more transparent signals than traditional polls—the regulatory approach in Utah treats these markets as gambling products subject to state-law restrictions. The dispute foregrounds a central question for the crypto and blockchain-adjacent economy: who should police event-based contracts that rely on real-money wagers and futures-style pricing? The CFTC’s stance that it retains exclusive federal oversight over such markets adds a layer of complexity for operators seeking a national framework that could preempt state bans or carveouts.
Kalshi’s legal strategy underscores the federal-versus-state tension at the heart of this debate. By insisting that its event contracts fall under federal derivatives regulation rather than gambling restrictions, the company is leveraging the Commodity Exchange Act to push back against Utah’s restrictions. That position aligns with prior CFTC positions that see these markets as subject to federal oversight, rather than states’ patchwork prohibitions. The unfolding cases, including Kalshi’s actions in Iowa and Ohio, illustrate how a chain of judicial decisions could shape not only the fate of prediction-market platforms but also broader efforts to innovate within the crypto and fintech ecosystems.
Beyond this particular dispute, observers are watching the implications for similar products—especially those that seek to tokenize or automate event-based bets with digital infrastructure. If courts uphold federal preemption for these contracts, it could unlock a more uniform regulatory path for platforms exploring cross-border and cross-state operations. Conversely, if states prevail, a mosaic of prohibitions could emerge, potentially dampening investment in related technologies and complicating compliance for operators seeking to scale. The debate is not just about Utah or Kalshi; it concerns the regulatory architecture that will govern the next wave of financial experimentation in the digital era.
In public remarks at a Florida industry conference, CFTC Chairman Michael Selig reminded attendees that the agency regards prediction markets as instruments with potential informational value, even calling them “truth machines” when priced and funded by participants who put real stake behind their views. He stressed that the CFTC would defend its authority in court if challenged, signaling that attempts to clamp down on such markets at the state level may be met with federal countermeasures. This framing dovetails with ongoing debates about how to regulate innovative financial products without stifling legitimate experimentation. The tone from Washington, D.C., and state capitals alike suggests a transitional period as policymakers weigh consumer protection, market integrity, and the demand for novel market signals.
What to watch next
- Governor Cox’s formal signature on HB243 and any subsequent regulatory guidance from Utah authorities.
- Federal court developments in Kalshi’s Utah and Iowa lawsuits, including any rulings on whether the CFTC’s authority can foreclose state bans.
- The Ohio federal court ruling on Kalshi’s attempt to block enforcement—whether it sets a precedent for other states’ actions against similar platforms.
- Additional state-level proposals targeting prediction markets or similar event-based contracts, and how courts interpret their scope vis-à-vis federal law.
- Responses from other market participants and lawmakers that could chart a broader regulatory framework for crypto-adjacent prediction markets.
Sources & verification
- Utah HB243 (Gambling Revisions) text and legislative history: https://le.utah.gov/~2026/bills/static/HB0243.html
- Associated Press report on Cox’s stance and the signing intent: https://apnews.com/article/utah-kalshi-polymarket-spencer-cox-mormon-gambling-c3fecd3e120b4d5be103bc9e1f4a5587
- Kalshi v. Utah: Kalshi’s lawsuit filing (Utah News Dispatch PDF): https://utahnewsdispatch.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/Kalshi_V_Utah.pdf
- Kalshi’s Iowa action (report reference): https://cointelegraph.com/news/kalshi-preemptively-sues-iowa-claiming-risk-of-enforcement-action
- Ohio court action on Kalshi’s sports-betting case: https://cointelegraph.com/news/kalshi-court-ohio-sports-betting-lawsuit
- CFTC Chair comments on prediction markets and enforcement stance: https://x.com/ChairmanSelig/status/2023744651216240966?s=20
- Related coverage on Kalshi’s Ohio case and broader regulatory actions: https://cointelegraph.com/news/kalshi-sued-khamenei-trade-carveout
Regulatory clash reshapes the landscape for prediction markets
Utah’s HB243 embodies a strategic attempt by a state to reframe the legal perimeter around prediction-based platforms, extending beyond traditional sports betting to what officials view as speculative markets that could attract vulnerable users. The bill would reclassify proposition betting—where wagers hinge on individual events within a game, rather than the final outcome—as gambling. In practical terms, that shift empowers Utah’s regulators to block operators from offering those services in the state, regardless of how the platforms label themselves. The legislature’s passage through both chambers, followed by the governor’s stated intent to sign, signals a strong intent to create a production-ready barrier against these services at the state level.
Kalshi’s legal response underscores a core proposition: federal law governs the structure and operation of event contracts. By contending that these are derivatives within the CFTC’s purview under the Commodity Exchange Act, Kalshi argues that Utah cannot selectively ban the contracts simply because they are framed as prediction markets. This argument hinges on questions of preemption and the reach of federal securities and commodities law into digital and financial-innovation spaces. The case mirrors a broader pattern in which states test the limits of their regulatory reach while federal agencies assert a uniform framework intended to maintain market integrity and protect participants.
As the federal regulator’s position gains resonance, Kalshi has pursued multi-front litigation. The company’s Utah suit targets the state’s enforcement actions, while an accompanying Iowa filing signals a broader strategy to secure a federal preemption shield. Meanwhile, a separate Ohio decision denying Kalshi’s bid to halt state enforcement actions demonstrates how courts are weighing the balance between state consumer protections and federal authority. Taken together, these movements sketch a regulatory arc: a fight over jurisdiction that could determine how prediction markets, crypto-linked or otherwise, can operate across the United States.
For market participants and observers, the outcome could influence investment, product development, and international competitiveness. If federal oversight becomes the default, operators may gain the ability to launch across multiple states with a consistent, preemptive framework. If, on the other hand, state restrictions proliferate, founders may face a fragmented landscape characterized by varying compliance costs and heightened legal risk. The CFTC’s characterization of prediction markets as “truth machines”—contingent on active participation and risk-bearing—adds a qualitative element to the regulatory debate: markets that are price-discovered and transparent can offer valuable signals, but only if designed and governed with appropriate safeguards.
What to watch next
- Fiscal and regulatory status of HB243 after gubernatorial action, including any rulemaking or enforcement guidelines from Utah’s gambling regulators.
- Upcoming court decisions in Kalshi’s Utah and Iowa cases that could clarify federal preemption in the context of state gambling prohibitions.
- Rulings in Ohio and other jurisdictions that could set precedent for how prediction-market operators navigate enforcement actions.
- Public statements from the CFTC and related federal agencies about the regulatory approach to crypto-adjacent prediction markets and their potential scope beyond traditional derivatives.
Crypto World
Intel (INTC) Stock Climbs 2.57% Following Panther Lake Announcement and Processor Launches
Key Takeaways
- Shares of Intel (INTC) climbed 2.57% to reach $47.98 on March 11, extending a three-session winning streak.
- The rally followed announcements regarding Panther Lake chip deployment and confirmation that Core Ultra 7 270K Plus and Core Ultra 5 250K Plus will ship on March 26.
- Industry sources indicate Intel is approaching “full capacity” as AI infrastructure requirements drive server processor demand.
- Wall Street maintains a “Reduce” consensus rating with a $45.74 average price target, though certain analysts have upgraded their outlook.
- Intel delivered stronger performance than NVIDIA, Broadcom, and Qualcomm during a session where broader indices declined.
Intel (INTC) finished Wednesday’s session at $47.98, posting a 2.57% advance while major benchmarks struggled. The S&P 500 dipped 0.08% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.61%, highlighting Intel’s relative strength.
The chipmaker extended its winning streak to three trading days. Volume registered at 71.6 million shares, noticeably lighter than the 50-day average of 108.2 million, indicating the advance occurred without heavy participation from new market entrants.
Shares peaked at $48.83 during intraday trading before settling at the $47.98 close. The stock’s 52-week peak of $54.60 was established on January 22.
The upward movement partially stemmed from developments surrounding Intel’s Panther Lake processor roadmap. Chief Executive Lip-Bu Tan disclosed that external foundry clients are actively participating as the company advances its manufacturing-as-a-service initiative.
The company also verified shipping dates for its Core Ultra 7 270K Plus and Core Ultra 5 250K Plus processors, scheduled for March 26 availability. Suggested pricing is positioned at $299 and $199 respectively.
Earlier this week, the Arrow Lake Refresh unveiling and Core Series 2/Core Ultra product family introduction had already sparked investor enthusiasm. Market reactions included double-digit intraday price movements, demonstrating heightened attention to Intel’s processor portfolio.
Artificial Intelligence Infrastructure and Manufacturing Capacity
Industry reports indicate Intel is operating at approximately “full capacity” as artificial intelligence infrastructure customers increase server chip procurement. Limited supply availability in this segment can strengthen pricing dynamics for manufacturers capable of meeting delivery commitments.
Acer recently unveiled new TravelMate Copilot+ notebook computers powered by Intel Core Ultra Series 3 processors, demonstrating original equipment manufacturer adoption of Intel’s newest mobile AI silicon. Additionally, Intel and Infosys broadened a strategic artificial intelligence infrastructure collaboration, potentially channeling additional enterprise computing workloads to Intel-based systems.
Intel disclosed fourth quarter results on January 22, delivering earnings per share of $0.15, surpassing the $0.08 consensus forecast. Revenue totaled $13.67 billion, exceeding the $13.37 billion analyst projection, despite representing a 4.2% year-over-year decline.
The company’s first quarter 2026 EPS guidance stands at $0.00, while Wall Street analysts project an average of -$0.11 EPS for the complete fiscal year.
Wall Street Perspective
Analyst opinion remains divided. Tigress Financial maintains a “buy” recommendation with a $66 price objective. UBS projects a $51 target. Northland Securities established a $54 forecast. Conversely, Rosenblatt carries a “sell” rating with a $30 target, while Citi has highlighted macroeconomic and competitive headwinds.
In aggregate, 5 analysts recommend buying INTC, 26 suggest holding, and 6 advise selling. The overall consensus stands at “Reduce” with a mean price target of $45.74 — trailing Wednesday’s closing level.
Intel ranks among the most heavily shorted Dow components, introducing additional volatility dynamics to the current uptrend.
Regarding insider activity, Executive Vice President David Zinsner acquired 5,882 shares at $42.50 in late January. Executive Vice President April Miller divested 20,000 shares at $49.05 in early February.
Intel’s 50-day moving average stands at $45.84. The 200-day moving average is positioned at $38.55. Institutional ownership represents 64.53% of outstanding shares.
Hyperliquid price rallied over 8% on Thursday as demand for oil futures on the platform continued to hold steady on the platform.
Summary
- Hyperliquid price rallied to a four-week high of $37.3 on Thursday, led by a surge in oil perps trading activity on the derivatives platform.
- HYPE has also confirmed a bullish reversal pattern on the 4-hour chart.
According to data from crypto.news, Hyperliquid (HYPE) price shot up 8% to a four-week high of $37.3 on Thursday, March 12. At this price, the token is up 45% from its February low and 81% higher than its lowest point this year.
HYPE price jump came along with a jump in trading volume, which rose 42% over the past 24 hours to around $437 million. Its market cap was settled at $8.86 billion.
CoinGlass data shows that its open interest has risen by 10%, suggesting that the major catalyst for its recent gains has come from the derivatives market, with traders opening more positions on the futures market.
A large share of this surge has been driven by activity in energy markets, especially the WTI perpetual, which tracks West Texas Intermediate crude oil. Oil prices have recently surged to four-year highs amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran.
Reports indicate that Iran has threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz, a key maritime chokepoint. Iranian officials have noted that they would shift from reciprocal responses to continuous pressure as they attempt to push oil prices to as high as $200.
Investors are concerned about rising inflation as a result of surging oil prices. However, derivative traders were quick to capitalize on the volatility. Notably, WTI oil futures have become the most active HIP 3 contract on the platform, surpassing even precious metals like gold and silver, which had earlier dominated activity.
Open interest in the oil-linked contract has also grown significantly in the period. At the same time, the HIP 3 permissionless perpetuals market on Hyperliquid has recorded more than $1.2 billion in total open interest.
Besides the energy sector, Hyperliquid price also seems to have received a boost from traders turning to the platform as a 24/7 venue to speculate on geopolitical developments, particularly when traditional exchanges such as the CME and ICE are closed for the weekend or after hours.
On the 4-hour chart, Hyperliquid price has confirmed a breakout from an inverse head and shoulders pattern that had been forming since mid-February this year. When such a pattern is confirmed, it typically tends to signal a bullish reversal. In the case of Hyperliquid, it seems to have further strengthened the uptrend.
As such, HYPE is likely to continue its uptrend past the $40 psychological resistance level to $41.7, a target calculated by adding the height of the inverse head and shoulders formed to the price point at which the pattern was confirmed.
The MACD indicator suggested that bulls were still in control of the market with the MACD lines trending upwards and above the zero line. At the same time, the Chaikin Money Flow index showed a positive 0.16 reading, a sign that capital was flowing into the market, helping sustain the ongoing bullish momentum.
Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.
JPMorgan is facing a lawsuit for allegedly enabling a $328 million crypto Ponzi scheme run by now-defunct Goliath Ventures.
Investors on Tuesday filed a proposed class action in the US District Court for the Northern District of California, accusing JPMorgan of ignoring suspicious transactions and allowing Goliath to use its infrastructure to collect investor funds.
The lawsuit notes that despite JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon’s repeated criticism of Bitcoin (BTC), the bank allegedly failed to prevent crypto scammers from carrying out fraudulent wire transactions.
“Chase, by virtue of its Know Your Customer actually knew that Goliath was acting as a ‘private equity’ cryptocurrency pool operator investing money for investors, without being licensed at all to sell these investments,” the complaint states.
Complaint focuses on JPMorgan account flows
The US Attorney’s Office for the Middle District of Florida announced the arrest of Goliath CEO Christopher Delgado on Feb. 24. He faces a maximum penalty of 30 years in federal prison if convicted on all counts.
Prosecutors said Goliath Ventures, formerly known as Gen-Z Venture Firm, operated the scheme from January 2023 through January 2026.
The lawsuit claims JPMorgan was the sole banking institution for Goliath from January 2023 to May or June 2025. “Goliath obtained at least $328 million from what are believed to be over 2,000 investors,” the complaint notes.
The complaint also describes money moved from a JPMorgan account to Goliath wallets held at Coinbase.
It alleges that from January 2023 through June 2025, about $253 million was deposited into the bank’s 0305 account, which is nearly two-thirds of the $328 million investors reportedly provided. Of that total, roughly $123 million was transferred to Goliath’s wallets maintained by Coinbase.
US complaint also names Bank of America account
A separate criminal complaint filed by the US government said Goliath also held business accounts at Bank of America.
“Delgado was a co-signatory on the BOA 9136 account in the name of Goliath,” the Feb. 20 complaint states, adding that Goliath directors told at least one investor that Delgado controlled the account.
The complaint further detailed that funds sent by investors were primarily deposited into JPMorgan’s 0305 account or the BOA 9136 account or transferred directly to Goliath’s wallets at Coinbase.
The government said Delgado was the sole signatory on Goliath’s Coinbase wallets.
More complaints are coming as the team is still identifying victims
The complaint was filed by a team of attorneys from Shaw Lewenz, Sonn Law Group and Schwartzbaum. The first named plaintiff, Robby Alan Steele, said he invested a total of $650,000, including retirement funds.
Related: Ex-CFO sentenced to two years for $35M crypto fraud scheme
Shaw Lewenz’ Jordan Shaw said there would be more complaints to come, as the team is still identifying individuals and entities they believe to be complicit.
“We are being purposeful and precise in who we file against, to be complementary to the receiver and his efforts,” Shaw said, adding: “The goal is not to duplicate efforts, but instead to maximize recovery.”
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Crypto World
MSTR’s STRC buys an estimated 7,000 BTC this week, but Two Prime CEO warns ‘no free lunch’
Around 7,000 bitcoin are estimated to have been purchased this week through Strategy’s (MSTR) perpetual preferred stock Stretch (STRC), underscoring how quickly the high yield instrument has become a key engine behind the company’s bitcoin accumulation.
But the structure carries risks, according to Alexander Blume, chief executive officer of Two Prime, an SEC registered investment adviser focused on institutional bitcoin yield strategies and bitcoin backed lending.
“There’s no free lunch,” Blume said. “A product that pays more than 6% over Treasuries must come with additional risk.”
Demand for the preferred shares has surged as investors search for higher returns. STRC currently yields at 11.5% and pays monthly cash distributions. Strategy has described the instrument as resembling a short duration, high yield savings instrument, with the dividend rate adjusted to help keep shares trading near their $100 par value while limiting price volatility.
The structure has helped accelerate Strategy’s bitcoin purchases. Market estimates suggest the company has bought more than 11,000 BTC over the past two weeks, bringing total accumulation through the product to roughly 34,000 BTC since it went live, according to STRC.live.
Corporate interest is also beginning to emerge. Asset manager Strive (ASST) recently disclosed a $50 million allocation to STRC, while digital credit firm Apyx said it recently purchased an additional 200,000 STRC shares, bringing its total holdings to 255,000 shares.
Blume said STRC was a major focus at the recent Strategy World conference, highlighting how central the product has become to the company’s capital strategy.
“We have seen a smattering of companies buy STRC,” Blume said, adding that some of the activity appears symbolic or partnership driven for now.
Blume also pointed to early efforts to build decentralized finance products on top of STRC, sometimes marketing them as savings like instruments despite volatility in the underlying asset.
STRC is designed to trade close to its $100 par value, but Blume said that is not guaranteed. A loss of confidence in the company, bitcoin or the preferred shares themselves could push the price below par and cause significant damage, he said.
STRC has on several occasions traded below its $100 par value, prompting the company to raise the dividend to help push the shares back toward par.
Blume added that strong momentum, available funding for interest payments and demand for high yield mean the structure is unlikely to face immediate problems.
The Ethereum price is showing signs of stabilization as large investors accumulate significant amounts of ETH from major cryptocurrency exchanges.
Summary
- Whale wallets withdrew over 74,000 ETH ($155M) from Binance and Kraken.
- Ethereum price is consolidating near $2,050 after February’s sharp correction.
- A breakout above $2,200 resistance could signal the next bullish move for ETH.
According to blockchain analytics shared by Lookonchain, a newly created wallet withdrew 11,629 Ethereum (ETH) worth about $23.7 million from Binance over the past two days.
In a separate transaction, another whale wallet identified as 0x8E34 removed 63,324 ETH valued at roughly $131.2 million from Kraken during the same period.
Large withdrawals from exchanges are often interpreted as a bullish signal because investors typically move assets to private wallets for long-term holding rather than immediate selling.
The combined withdrawals total more than 74,000 ETH, suggesting that institutional or high-net-worth investors may be positioning ahead of a potential price move.
Ethereum price analysis
Based on the ETH/USDT daily chart, Ethereum is currently trading around $2,050, remaining largely range-bound after a sharp correction earlier in February.
The chart shows that ETH has been consolidating between $1,950 and $2,150 for several weeks, forming a sideways structure after rebounding from lows near $1,800.
The immediate resistance level sits around $2,150–$2,200. A decisive breakout above this zone could trigger momentum toward the $2,400 level, where the previous sell-off accelerated.
On the downside, strong support appears near $1,950, with deeper structural support around $1,800, which marked the February bottom.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently near 50, reflecting neutral momentum and suggesting the asset is neither overbought nor oversold. This reading typically occurs during consolidation phases before a larger directional move.
Meanwhile, the Accumulation/Distribution indicator is stabilizing after a sharp drop earlier in the month, hinting that buying pressure may be gradually returning.
The recent whale withdrawals could tighten exchange supply if the coins remain off trading platforms. When combined with Ethereum’s current consolidation pattern, such accumulation phases often precede stronger price movements.
However, traders will likely watch for a break above $2,200 to confirm a bullish continuation. Until then, Ethereum may remain trapped within its current range as the market waits for a decisive catalyst.
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