Goldman Sachs has delayed its prediction for the first Federal Reserve rate cut to September 2026, potentially putting pressure on the crypto market.

Goldman Sachs has pushed back its forecast for when the Federal Reserve could begin cutting interest rates, warning that rising inflation risks tied to oil prices and geopolitical tensions may delay monetary easing.

In a note released on March 12, the investment bank said it now expects the first 25-basis-point rate cut in September 2026, followed by another reduction in December. Earlier projections had placed the first cut in June.

The revised outlook comes as financial markets remain uneasy about the economic impact of the ongoing conflict between the U.S. and Iran, which has raised fears of supply disruptions in global oil markets.

Inflation forecasts move higher

Goldman also raised its inflation expectations for 2026. The bank now sees headline PCE inflation reaching 2.9% by the end of the year, an upward revision of 0.8 percentage points. Core PCE inflation is projected to rise to 2.4%, while the forecast for U.S. GDP growth was trimmed to 2.2%.

Higher energy prices are the main driver of the shift. The bank now expects Brent crude to average around $98 per barrel in March and April, roughly 40% above the 2025 average. In a scenario where disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz last for a month, prices could climb above $110 per barrel.

Goldman estimates that a 10% increase in oil prices could push headline inflation up by about 0.2 percentage points.

At the same time, the firm pointed to signs of a gradually softening labor market. If employment conditions weaken more quickly than expected, earlier rate cuts could still happen, analysts said.

Traders currently assign roughly a 41% probability to a September rate cut.

What delayed rate cuts could mean for crypto

Shifts in interest-rate expectations often ripple through the digital asset sector. Cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum tend to perform best when financial conditions are loosening and liquidity is expanding.

A later start to the easing cycle suggests that borrowing costs could stay higher for longer. That environment typically weighs on risk-sensitive assets, including the broader crypto market.

Stronger inflation expectations can also reduce investor appetite for speculative investments. In past cycles, digital assets have often reacted to macroeconomic news in ways similar to technology stocks.

Goldman has also pointed to geopolitical risks as a growing macro factor. Oil supply shocks, the bank said, could feed inflation and keep monetary policy tighter than markets previously expected.

Macro risks remain in focus

Short-term volatility could remain elevated if inflation readings or energy prices continue to surprise on the upside. Rising oil costs tend to filter through to consumer prices over time, which could complicate the Fed’s policy path.

However, the longer-term outlook is less certain. Goldman’s base case still expects oil prices to ease toward about $71 per barrel by late 2026, which could reduce inflation pressure and re-open the door to faster monetary easing.

For the crypto market, the key variables to watch in the coming months will likely include inflation data, energy prices, and signals from the Federal Reserve about the timing of rate cuts.