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Bitcoin’s early crash to $60,000 now looks like a warning for stocks

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Daily charts for BTC, SPX futures, XLF and Nifty. (TradingView)

Many see bitcoin as a safe-haven and store-of-value asset, like gold. But some currency traders treat it as a lead indicator for broader market mood, and they’ve been proven right again: Before finding stability near $70,000 recently, bitcoin plunged sharply, presaging the ongoing global stock market swoon.

Bitcoin’s price peaked above $126,000 in early October and started falling, eventually hitting lows near $60,000 early last month. The sell-off featured rapid outflows from U.S.-listed spot ETFs. CoinDesk flagged this in January, questioning whether these flows – absent any clear crypto trigger – signaled an incoming macro economic blowup and stock market sell-off.

Fast forward to today: Global market sentiment has worsened, with the Iran war and oil price spike weighing heavily on Asian and European indices. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have also come under pressure while the dollar index gains. Meanwhile, bitcoin has been rock steady around $70,000.

Here’s where it gets even more interesting: Key stock indices like the S&P 500 mirrored Bitcoin’s pre-crash back-and-forth trading in a broad range.

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Daily charts for BTC, SPX futures, XLF and Nifty. (TradingView)
Daily charts for BTC, SPX futures, XLF and Nifty. (TradingView)

Bitcoin held above $100,000 for months in this volatile, expanding channel before plunging into bear territory. An identical setup has unfolded in the SPDR Financial Select Sector ETF (XLF), India’s Nifty (among the hardest hit), and S&P 500 futures.

Repeat of 2021-22

This isn’t the first time bitcoin has led price action in traditional risk assets. Over the years, the cryptocurrency has often foreshadowed equity trends, most clearly in late 2021-2022.

BTC versus S&P 500 e-mini futures. (TradingView)
BTC versus S&P 500 e-mini futures. (TradingView)

BTC peaked near $60,000 in November 2021 and quickly tanked to under $50,000 in a month. The bear market deepened in 2022. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 topped out two months later in January 2022, then followed suit with their own prolonged declines as the Federal Reserve raised borrowing costs rapidly.

Todd Stankiewicz, president and chief investment officer of SYKON Capital, in a blog post on the Chartered Market Technicial (CMT) Association website, noted bitcoin’s tendency to peak before the S&P 500 in three key instances: late 2017, weeks before the COVID crash, and late 2021.

“Bitcoin either rolled over or failed to make new highs while the S&P 500 pushed ahead. In each case, the equity rally eventually stalled and reversed,” Stankiewicz said.

All things considered, the takeaway is clear: Stock traders should start watching bitcoin trends closely from here.

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Crypto World

Hackers Claim They Leaked Swedish E-Government Source Code

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Hackers Claim They Leaked Swedish E-Government Source Code

A threat actor has claimed to have leaked source code and other sensitive material tied to Sweden’s e-government platform, prompting an investigation by Swedish authorities and an incident response by CGI Sverige.

Cybersecurity accounts on X and local media reported Thursday that a threat actor calling itself ByteToBreach had published material it said came from CGI Sverige, the Swedish subsidiary of global IT giant CGI Group, and Sweden’s e-government infrastructure, according to local news outlet Aftonbladet.

CGI told Aftonbladet its cybersecurity team discovered an incident involving two internal test servers in Sweden that were not used in production. The company said an older application version and its source code were accessible, but that there was no indication that customer production data or operational services were affected. CGI press secretary Agneta Hansson confirmed to the news outlet that authorities are investigating the leak.

About 95% of Sweden’s 10.7 million population used e-government services in 2024, according to Eurostat data

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The leaked files could include the platform’s source code and configuration files, internal staff database, citizens’ personally identifiable information databases, electronic signing documents and other sensitive data.

Source: Vecert Analyzer

Cointelegraph contacted CGI Group and Sweden’s national IT incident center, CERT-SE, for comment on the reported leak.

Swedish civil defense minister confirms cybersecurity incident

However, Carl-Oskar Bohlin, Sweden’s minister of civil defense, confirmed the data leak and said the government is working with CERT-SE and the National Cyber Security Center to identify the culprits.

IT security expert Anders Nilsson confirmed that the hacked resources seemed authentic. “Source code for several programs seems to exist, and from what I can see, the hack looks genuine,” Nilsson wrote in an email to media outlet SVT.

Related: SlowMist introduces Web3 security stack for autonomous AI agents

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Hackers target Swedish and European infrastructure

Hackers are increasingly targeting public-facing cyber infrastructure throughout Sweden and Europe, warned threat intelligence platform Threat Landscape.

“This is not an isolated incident,” the platform said in a Thursday report.

“ByteToBreach is the same actor responsible for the Viking Line breach posted just one day prior, suggesting an ongoing campaign targeting Swedish and European infrastructure via CGI’s managed services footprint.”

Related: French couple robbed of $1M in Bitcoin by criminals posing as police

The threat actor claimed to have leaked the full source code of the e-government platform, sharing multiple supporting materials.

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Leaked folders uploaded by threat actor ByteToBreach. Source: Threat Landscape

Threat-intelligence researchers said the exposure could still carry follow-on risk if attackers use the leaked code or documentation to identify weaknesses in public-facing systems, though the full contents of the dump have not been independently verified.

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