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Stock Futures Gain as Oil Retreats from $100 and Bitcoin Surges Above $72,000

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E-Mini S&P 500 Mar 26 (ES=F)

TLDR

  • Stock futures for the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq posted gains Friday morning following a sharp decline the previous day, supported by a modest retreat in oil prices.
  • Brent crude momentarily breached the $100 per barrel mark for the first time since August 2022, subsequently falling back to approximately $99.
  • Analysts describe the current oil supply disruption, linked to the Iran conflict entering its second week with the Strait of Hormuz remaining blocked, as historically unprecedented.
  • Bitcoin climbed above $70,000, with market observers pointing to a social media message from Trump as a potential catalyst for the cryptocurrency’s advance.
  • Market expectations for Federal Reserve policy have shifted dramatically, with traders now pricing in a 47% probability of no rate cuts in 2026, compared to merely 3% four weeks earlier, amid mounting inflation concerns.

Friday morning brought relief to US equity markets as stock futures posted modest gains after Thursday’s bruising session pushed all three primary indices to their 2026 lows. Futures contracts for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 each advanced between 0.3% and 0.4% during early trading hours.

E-Mini S&P 500 Mar 26 (ES=F)
E-Mini S&P 500 Mar 26 (ES=F)

The upward movement came after an Axios report suggested a potential breakthrough in the Middle East crisis. According to the report, President Donald Trump informed fellow world leaders during a Wednesday virtual summit that Iran was on the verge of capitulation. However, official White House confirmation of these statements has not been forthcoming.

Contradicting any notion of imminent surrender, Iran’s newly appointed supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, doubled down on Thursday with pledges to continue hostilities. He explicitly stated Iran’s intention to maintain the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway for global petroleum shipments.

As the confrontation between Iran and Israel stretches into its second week, military operations continue to intensify. Fresh Israeli strikes targeted Tehran, while evidence suggests Iranian involvement in missile attacks affecting Dubai and Turkey. The United States military also reported the tragic loss of four service members in a refueling aircraft accident.

Oil Pulls Back But Stays Elevated

Oil prices experienced a modest decline Friday following days of turbulent trading. West Texas Intermediate crude futures dropped approximately 2% to trade beneath $94 per barrel. Brent crude, the global pricing benchmark, retreated from the psychologically significant $100 threshold after closing above that level Thursday for the first time in over two years.

Energy market experts characterize the current supply disruption as unparalleled in scope and severity. Washington responded by issuing its second exemption permitting purchases of previously sanctioned Russian petroleum, attempting to alleviate supply constraints.

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According to The Wall Street Journal, Indian government representatives are engaged in intensive negotiations with Tehran to secure passage for no fewer than 23 oil tankers currently stranded due to the Strait of Hormuz blockade. Indian officials suggest initial transit approvals could materialize within days.

Fed Rate Cut Bets Fall Sharply

The petroleum-fueled inflation anxiety is fundamentally altering market projections for Federal Reserve monetary policy. CME FedWatch data reveals traders now assign a 47% likelihood to the scenario where the central bank implements zero interest rate reductions throughout 2026. This represents a dramatic shift from the 3% probability assigned to this outcome just one month prior.

Friday morning saw the 10-year Treasury yield holding at 4.28%. Meanwhile, the US dollar index gained 0.3%, reaching its strongest position in three and a half months.

Market participants eagerly awaited Friday’s release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve’s favored inflation measurement tool. Additional economic data including fourth quarter GDP figures and the January JOLTS employment openings report were also on the calendar.

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Bitcoin broke through the $70,000 barrier in early Friday trading. Market commentators suggested a social media message from former President Trump may have contributed to the cryptocurrency’s upward momentum. Gold was tracking toward a weekly decline, pressured by dollar strength.

Thursday witnessed Brent crude’s most substantial single-session percentage increase since May 2020, highlighting the extraordinary volatility characterizing this week’s energy market trading.

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Bitcoin tops $73K as SOL, ADA and BNB surge; $370M in shorts wiped out

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An investor checks rising cryptocurrency charts on a laptop and smartphone with a city skyline visible through the office window.
An investor checks rising cryptocurrency charts on a laptop and smartphone with a city skyline visible through the office window.
  • Solana, Cardano, and BNB prices rose as Bitcoin surged past $73,000.
  • Altcoins surge as SOL passes $92, ADA hits $0.28 and BNB nears $675.
  • Price gain caught leveraged traders off guard, with over $370 million liquidated across crypto.

​Cryptocurrency prices climbed on Friday as risk assets attempted a rebound amid easing oil prices, with Solana (SOL), Cardano (ADA), and Binance Coin (BNB) among the tokens posting notable gains.

As these altcoins approached key price levels, bearish traders were caught off guard by the sharp move higher.

The spike wiped out many short positions, pushing total 24-hour liquidations beyond $370 million.

Most of the liquidations involved BTC and ETH shorts, though Solana also experienced a significant wave of forced exits.

SOL, ADA, and BNB surge to key levels

As US stocks posted modest gains alongside a pullback in oil prices, sentiment across the crypto market turned sharply positive.

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The broader rebound pushed Solana (SOL) above $92, marking a 24-hour gain of more than 6% as renewed investor confidence returned to the market.

Cardano (ADA) also moved higher, reaching $0.28 after rising about 5% over the past 24 hours. The rally helped ADA reclaim its place among the top 10 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, ahead of Hyperliquid.

Among other leading altcoins, BNB advanced to around $675, gaining roughly 3% during the same period.

These moves came alongside Bitcoin’s sharp rally above $73,000, with BTC reaching intraday highs of $73,758 at the time of writing.

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The surge also lifted Ethereum (ETH), which climbed above $2,200 during the session.

​Liquidations jump 120% as shorts feel the pressure

According to data from CoinGlass, more than 93,680 traders were liquidated over the past 24 hours, with total liquidations exceeding $370 million.

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Bitcoin accounted for more than $154 million in liquidations, while leveraged Ethereum traders saw more than $115 million in positions wiped out as ETH moved above $2,150.

On the global exchanges, the single largest liquidation occurred on Hyperliquid in the BTC-USD pair, with a trade valued at $4.24 million.

Meanwhile, more than $20 million in liquidations were tied to Solana positions, with long positions accounting for only about $2.4 million of that total.

Short sellers took the biggest hit, with more than $18 million in SOL short positions wiped out as Solana’s price volatility exceeded 8%. CoinGlass data also showed that more than 3,500 traders were liquidated as SOL crossed the $91 mark.

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Elsewhere, BNB recorded roughly $820,000 in liquidations, while ADA saw about $985,000 in positions wiped out.

Such liquidation cascades can accelerate price rallies, as forced buying from margin calls injects additional liquidity into rising assets. Analysts say this dynamic often appears at the early stages of stronger market uptrends.

However, with macroeconomic and geopolitical risks still present, prices could remain volatile as traders continue to reposition.

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JPMorgan’s push to replace Silicon Valley Bank for startups

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JPMorgan’s push to replace Silicon Valley Bank for startups

People line up outside of the shuttered Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) headquarters on March 10, 2023 in Santa Clara, California.

Justin Sullivan | Getty Images

Three years ago, JPMorgan Chase executive Doug Petno was at a New York City party celebrating a colleague’s retirement when his boss, Jamie Dimon, called Petno over.

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It was March 9, 2023, and the customers of a West Coast lender known for catering to startups had been withdrawing deposits in droves.

“Jamie looks at me and says, ‘Get on this call,’” Petno told CNBC this week in an exclusive interview.

On the line were regulators with an urgent question: Was JPMorgan interested in buying Silicon Valley Bank?

California’s finance regulators seized SVB the next day, completing the sudden collapse of an institution at the heart of the American startup community. Over that weekend, Dimon, Petno and other JPMorgan leaders repeatedly weighed whether they should purchase the bank, which had just lost $42 billion in deposits. They decided against it, in part because thousands of SVB clients were signing up for JPMorgan accounts, anyway, in a flight to safety.

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“We had three years’ worth of incoming clients in a weekend,” said Petno, who is co-head of JPMorgan’s commercial and investment bank. “Onboarding teams were opening up accounts around the clock.”

Emboldened by what they were seeing, Petno had an idea: What if JPMorgan could build a true competitor to SVB — as well as startups Brex, Ramp and Mercury — all of whom had carved a profitable niche serving founders and venture capital investors?

“We went to our board and said, there’s a vacuum in the market,” Petno told CNBC. “At that very moment, everybody saw the opportunity.”

Keeping tabs

For JPMorgan, already a giant in Main Street and Wall Street finance, winning the more specific niche of startup banking from West Coast rivals is about more than gaining deposits. It’s both a key element of the growth strategy for a bank with more than $180 billion in revenue last year, and also a means to help the New York-based lender stay close to technology developments for itself.

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JPMorgan, with a tech budget of nearly $20 billion this year, is aiming to not only serve startup clients and VC investors better, but to learn from them. The firm keeps a close eye on Silicon Valley startups for solutions to problems the bank itself faces, from cybersecurity to quantum computing.

In fact, when a JPMorgan client announces a round of AI-related cutbacks to jobs and expenses, the firm will often send a team of bankers to investigate how the client is doing it, said Petno.

Typically, the bankers find that implementing new AI agents is only a fraction of the reason for layoffs, while other factors like over-hiring and inefficient processes account for the rest, he said.

Co-CEOs of Commercial & Investment Bank at JPMorganChase, Troy Rohrbaugh and Douglas Petno.

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Courtesy: JPMorganChase

JPMorgan began its startup banking business in 2016 as it became aware of its tech-focused rivals during its Westward expansion. In the beginning, it only served bigger, more mature startups.

That’s in part because the bank didn’t yet have a digital banking solution that younger founders in particular craved, Petno said. It also didn’t have enough investment bankers at the time to target smaller, riskier startups.

For years, the view on JPMorgan from some in the VC community was that it took too long to open an account, or that resolving issues around payments involved dealing with time-consuming visits to a branch, investors told CNBC.

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“They want to go to the website to open an account, and if it’s more than 15 minutes, they’re done,” says Petno.

But in the weeks that followed the SVB collapse, Petno and his team moved quickly, hiring a few key players from SVB, including then-SVB Capital President John China, who today leads JPMorgan’s innovation economy business along with Andrew Kresse.  

By late April of 2023, JPMorgan found itself looking at buying another wounded California-based bank. This time, it made the winning bid for First Republic, which also catered to the tech community.

With fresh learnings from SVB and the banking operations of First Republic, JPMorgan doubled its revenue from startup banking in 2023, according to the company.

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Despite the digital banking focus, a startup founder will still sometimes walk into a Chase branch to deposit a huge funding check into a regular account. Now, when that happens, JPMorgan’s systems immediately gets that client moved to the startup team, Petno says.

Killer app?

JPMorgan has now quadrupled the number of total clients it has in the business to nearly 12,000, served by 550 bankers on both coasts, according to the lender, all of whom draw resources from different parts of the company.

Founders and VC investors are clients of the private bank, while the startups are covered by the commercial bank and VC funds are separate clients in a business largely acquired from First Republic.

While JPMorgan declined to give specific revenue figures, Petno said the startup business had a “dramatically higher” growth rate than the bank’s main business lines.

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And yet, Petno still isn’t satisfied with the firm’s digital banking offerings for startups, describing a project underway that will help them leapfrog competitors.

Besides SVB, which is now owned by First Citizens Bank, and the startups Mercury and Ramp, competitors in the space include Stifel and Customers Bank. In January, Capital One acquired Brex for $5.15 billion.

Since most startups fail, JPMorgan identifies companies that they expect to be winning bets, seeking to develop relationships with them earlier in their life cycle, like SVB did.

That way, they can provide not only core bank accounts, but lucrative investment banking advice along the way.

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JPMorgan’s ultimate vision is to become the one-stop shop for founders, serving all their needs, including international expansion, from the seed round to IPO and beyond.

“Once you’re onboarded, you can never outgrow JPMorgan, from unicorn all the way to a Magnificent 7,” Petno said.

Choose CNBC as your preferred source on Google and never miss a moment from the most trusted name in business news.

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Bitcoin Grills $74,000 Again After US PCE Inflation Data

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Bitcoin Grills $74,000 Again After US PCE Inflation Data

Bitcoin (BTC) aimed for five-week highs at Thursday’s Wall Street open as US inflation trends stayed on track.

Key points:

  • US inflation data keeps crypto and stocks higher as BTC price action tests $74,000 again.

  • Bitcoin traders diverge over the future of the move, with a “bearish retest” risking a new price collapse.

  • BTC/USD finally recrosses its 50-day moving average trend line.

PCE inflation emboldens Bitcoin bulls

Data from TradingView confirmed new local BTC price highs near $74,000 following the January print of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index.

BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Known as the Federal Reserve’s “preferred” inflation gauge, January PCE matched market expectations, coming in at 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year, per data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

PCE Index % change (screenshot). Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

While still at its highest levels since late 2023, the result appeared to soothe risk assets, with US stocks up around 0.5% at the time of writing. 

In doing so, both risk assets and crypto began to diverge from a positive correlation to oil seen over the week. WTI crude was down 2% on the day at around $95 per barrel.

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CFDs on WTI crude oil one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

BTC price forecast: $79,000 or “bearish retest?”

Commenting on Bitcoin, crypto trader Michaël van de Poppe was cautiously upbeat on the outlook.

Related: Bitcoin’s ‘narrative vacuum,’ Ethereum now inevitable: Trade Secrets

“Resistance zone for me is between $76-79K for Bitcoin. I don’t expect a fast breakout in one-go, but I would assume that we’re going to see some extra momentum occur on the altcoin markets in that window,” he wrote in a post on X

“In the meantime; if Bitcoin gets there, it provides a monthly engulfing candle and therefore, it erases the entire correction of February.”

BTC/USDT 12-hour chart. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/X

Others stayed on edge, with trader Daan Crypto Trades warning of a “large drop” if the current trading zone collapsed.

Trader Roman, already bearish, described the ongoing shift higher on BTC/USD as a “bearish retest.”

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“RSI bear divs, bear price action (volume down + price up), & complete reset of MACD,” he summarized, referring to the relative strength index (RSI) and moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) price indicators on daily time frames.

BTC/USD one-day chart with RSI, MACD data. Source: Roman/X

In fresh updates on his Telegram channel on the day, meanwhile, independent analyst Filbfilb focused on open interest (OI).

Market observers, he said, should watch for OI to “ditch” — an event that would precede the end of the push higher.

Exchange Bitcoin OI (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

“No sign yet,” he acknowledged, noting that price was now interacting with its 50-day simple moving average (SMA). 

As Cointelegraph reported, this was a key overhead resistance zone of interest during previous breakout attempts.

BTC/USD one-day chart with 50 SMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView