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Fed Faces Sticky Inflation as January PCE Exceeds Target Ahead of Policy Meeting

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

Key Takeaways

  • Year-over-year core PCE inflation registered 3.1% in January, exceeding the Federal Reserve’s 2% objective
  • On a monthly basis, core PCE increased 0.4%, matching analyst forecasts
  • Overall PCE recorded 2.8% annual growth, marginally lower than the anticipated 2.9%
  • Financial markets broadly anticipate the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates between 3.5%–3.75% during the upcoming policy meeting
  • These figures predate the Iran military engagement, which has elevated crude oil costs and introduces uncertainty to future inflation trends

On March 13, 2026, the Bureau of Economic Analysis published its personal consumption expenditures (PCE) report for January. This metric serves as the Federal Reserve’s primary gauge for measuring inflationary pressures.

The core PCE measure, which excludes volatile food and energy components, climbed 3.1% on an annual basis in January. This figure aligned with expert predictions but represented an acceleration from December’s 3.0% reading. Monthly core PCE advanced 0.4%, consistent with projections.

The overall PCE measurement — encompassing all consumer goods and services — expanded 2.8% annually. This result fell marginally short of the 2.9% consensus estimate and represented a deceleration from the previous month’s velocity.

On a month-to-month basis, overall PCE increased 0.3%, in line with market expectations.

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The Federal Reserve maintains an inflation target of 2%. With core PCE currently positioned at 3.1%, consumer prices continue running significantly above the central bank’s desired threshold.

Markets are pricing in that the Fed will maintain its current rate range of 3.5% to 3.75% during next week’s policy deliberations. Given the stubborn inflation readings, interest rate reductions appear unlikely in the near term.

The PCE measure has been registering higher readings compared to the Labor Department’s Consumer Price Index. This divergence primarily stems from varying methodologies for weighing housing and healthcare expenditures. PCE assigns reduced importance to shelter expenses, which have been moderating, while giving greater emphasis to medical costs, which have been climbing.

February’s CPI registered 2.4% year-over-year — a considerably more subdued figure.

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What These Numbers Miss

The January data captures economic circumstances from over a month in the past. It fails to incorporate consequences from the Iran military conflict, which commenced following U.S. and Israeli aerial operations in late February.

Oil prices have surged substantially since hostilities began. Elevated crude costs typically translate to higher inflation in subsequent months.

The economic landscape faces additional complexity from broad-based tariff implementations and substantial corporate capital allocation toward artificial intelligence initiatives. Both factors are already influencing economic conditions but remain challenging to measure accurately in real time.

Paul Ashworth, Chief North America Economist at Capital Economics, observed that America’s status as a net petroleum exporter may cushion the impact of rising oil valuations. He acknowledged that while increased energy expenses could initially diminish consumer purchasing capacity, any corresponding investment gains would require time to materialize throughout the economy.

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Personal consumption expenditures rose 0.4% in January compared to the previous month, surpassing forecasts. Personal income expansion, conversely, experienced modest deceleration.

Looking Forward

Fourth-quarter 2025 GDP expansion underwent substantial downward revision to merely 0.7%.

Ashworth anticipates economic recovery during the first quarter of 2026, attributable in part to diminishing headwinds from a government shutdown that occurred in late 2025.

The Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate determination will follow a two-day policy meeting next week. Current market indicators suggest rates will remain unchanged.

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BTC gives up gains as Middle East tensions ratchet higher

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BTC gives up gains as Middle East tensions ratchet higher

The crypto rally ran into a wall on Friday as fresh headlines of potential escalation in the Iran conflict abruptly cooled risk appetite across markets.

Among the developments, the U.S. Central Command confirmed that all six crew members aboard a refueling aircraft that crashed in Iraq on Thursday had died.

Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal reported that the Pentagon is deploying a Marine expeditionary unit (thought to be 2,500 troops) to the Middle East, including forces attached to the USS Tripoli, as Iran steps up attacks around the Strait of Hormuz.

Bitcoin, after rallying to near $74,000 earlier in the session, reversed sharply to $71,200 following the news, still holding onto 1.9% gain over the past 24 hours. Ethereum’s ether (ETH), Solana’s SOL (SOL) and were 3% higher during the same period, though also retreating from their session highs.

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U.S. equities surrendered early gains, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq flipping to 0.4%-0.5% declines. Gold, which often benefits from geopolitical turmoil, extended its recent pullback by another 1%, Oil, on the other hand, climbed more than $5 per barrel from its lowest levels of the day, now higher by nearly 2% for the session at $97.30.

“Optimism over geopolitical events, including Russian sanction relief, has been a driver” behind the price action, said Paul Howard, director at trading firm Wincent. “These headlines tend to have a short half-life, so [we] would expect this to be short-lived till we see concrete follow-up action.”

Crypto-linked equities continue to be mostly posting gains for the day. Bitcoin miner Marathon Digital (MARA) led the advance with a 10% jump, while Galaxy Digital (GLXY), Ethereum treasury firm Bitmine (BMNR) and AI data-center focused miner Cipher Mining (CIFR) all climbed 5%-7%.

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A dormant crypto whale just scooped up $7 million in Trump tokens after a new gala was announced

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A dormant crypto whale just scooped up $7 million in Trump tokens after a new gala was announced

A crypto wallet that sat dormant for five months woke up Thursday to accumulate more than $7 million worth of TRUMP tokens as the U.S. president-linked memecoin’s official team announced a second gala event for top holders — sending the token surging more than 60% from its all-time low.

Onchain data from Arkham Intelligence shows the wallet began buying the tokens from Binance’s hot wallet starting at 01:49 UTC on March 13, hours after the gala was announced. The wallet accumulated roughly 2.2 million TRUMP across four transactions: an initial single-token test buy, followed by two purchases of about 1 million tokens each, worth a combined $6.23 million, and a further 200,000-token buy worth $742,000.

The TrumpMeme account on X announced a conference and gala luncheon at Mar-a-Lago on April 25. The event is open to the top 297 TRUMP holders by time-weighted average balance between the announcement date of March 12 and April 10.

TRUMP dropped to a record low near $2.71 earlier Thursday before spiking to $4.50, then pulling back to around $3.90 — still a gain of roughly 44% from the trough. The wallet was up approximately $2.47 million on its position at the time of publication, with total holdings valued at $9.44 million, per Arkham data.

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The new event echoes the dinner held at Trump National Golf Club in May 2025, which drew criticism from lawmakers and ethics watchdogs over presidential access as a token-holding incentive. A disclaimer on the new event’s website states Donald Trump will appear in a personal capacity with no private meetings.

TRUMP has fallen roughly 96% from its all-time high of around $74, set just before Trump’s inauguration in January 2025.

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Stanley Druckenmiller Predicts Stablecoins Will Transform Global Payments Within 15 Years

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

Key Takeaways

  • Legendary investor predicts stablecoins will control global payments within 10-15 years.
  • Blockchain technology offers superior speed and cost efficiency for international transfers.
  • USDT and USDC lead the market in transaction volume and adoption.
  • Financial institutions actively test stablecoins for payments and treasury operations.
  • Bitcoin maintains its position as a digital store of value.

The global financial system stands at a potential inflection point as digital payment technology challenges conventional infrastructure. Renowned billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller projects that stablecoins will emerge as the dominant force in global payments over the next 10 to 15 years. His forecast underscores growing institutional recognition of blockchain-based payment networks that deliver enhanced speed and reduced transaction costs for international settlements.

Blockchain-Based Payment Systems Attract Institutional Interest

During a conversation with Morgan Stanley released Thursday, Stanley Druckenmiller shared his perspective on the evolution of payment infrastructure. He projected that stablecoin networks could supplant significant segments of existing financial systems. According to Druckenmiller, blockchain architecture delivers superior efficiency while cutting expenses associated with worldwide payment processing.

He characterized the technology as delivering faster execution and lower costs compared to traditional settlement frameworks operated by financial institutions and payment processors. This value proposition has prompted numerous financial organizations to experiment with stablecoin implementations for fund transfers and liquidity operations. The dual benefits of transaction velocity and operational cost reduction continue attracting attention from both institutions and infrastructure providers.

A stablecoin typically preserves stable value through backing assets denominated in conventional currencies like the U.S. dollar. This structure enables stablecoin transactions to eliminate price fluctuation concerns while leveraging blockchain settlement benefits. Financial organizations are therefore examining stablecoin infrastructure for applications including international remittances, e-commerce transactions, and corporate treasury functions.

Market Leaders USDT and USDC Drive Stablecoin Adoption

The worldwide stablecoin landscape currently centers around two primary digital assets. Tether (USDT) alongside USD Coin (USDC) represent the overwhelming majority of stablecoin trading and transfer activity throughout cryptocurrency markets. These instruments enable merchants, corporations, and payment service providers to transmit digital dollar equivalents instantaneously via blockchain infrastructure.

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Circle Internet Financial creates and distributes USDC while marketing the token toward financial infrastructure applications. Simultaneously, Tether sustains USDT availability throughout numerous blockchain platforms and trading venues. Both networks facilitate substantial transaction throughput and progressively function as cross-border settlement solutions.

Financial institutions and banking enterprises currently examine stablecoin architectures for prospective incorporation into payment workflows. Analysis from Australian financial institution Macquarie similarly indicates broadening stablecoin infrastructure throughout financial service sectors. Market observers highlight that stablecoin utilization has extended beyond trading activities to encompass payments, transfers, and corporate treasury applications.

Bitcoin Preserves Store-of-Value Status Amid Broader Crypto Criticism

While endorsing stablecoin payment prospects, Druckenmiller reiterated skepticism toward numerous cryptocurrencies. He has maintained for years that multiple digital tokens lack compelling economic applications. From his perspective, many blockchain projects represent solutions seeking real-world problems to address.

He recognized Bitcoin’s enduring status as a value preservation instrument. He observed that the cryptocurrency established powerful brand awareness and sustained adoption throughout market participants. This recognition, he indicated, reinforced bitcoin’s continued relevance within broader financial discourse.

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Druckenmiller additionally questioned the sustainability of the U.S. dollar’s position as the preeminent global reserve currency. He has previously cautioned that mounting fiscal challenges could erode the dollar’s international standing over extended timeframes. Though uncertain regarding potential alternatives, he proposed that digital assets or stablecoin frameworks might ultimately reshape global monetary arrangements.

 

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MoonPay adds Ledger-secured AI crypto agents to deal with wallet key risks

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MoonPay unveils AI onramp for brave new agent economy

Crypto payments firm MoonPay added Ledger hardware wallet signing to its command-line interface (CLI) wallet for MoonPay Agents, a move the company says addresses a security challenge introduced by autonomous crypto trading tools.

The new feature allows users to verify and sign every transaction generated by an AI agent using a Ledger hardware device, ensuring private keys never leave the hardware signer. MoonPay said the integration makes the CLI wallet the first agent-focused wallet to support Ledger’s secure signing through the company’s Device Management Kit.

Autonomous crypto agents are a growing category of tools designed to execute trading strategies, rebalance portfolios and move assets across chains without constant human input. But security concerns have slowed adoption, because many implementations require users to hand over direct access to wallet keys.

“Autonomous agents will manage trillions in digital assets,” said Ivan Soto-Wright, CEO and founder of MoonPay. “But autonomy without security is reckless. We built MoonPay Agents with Ledger so intelligence can scale without surrendering control. The agent executes. The human stays in the loop.”

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Ledger’s chief experience officer, Ian Rogers, said the integration reflects the growing number of developer-focused wallets and AI-driven tools entering crypto.

“There is a new wave of CLI and agent-centric wallets emerging, and these will need Ledger security as a feature, too,” Rogers said.

Read more: Your AI is getting a bank account: MoonPay just gave bots the power to spend money

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Olivier Janssens’ Nevis Project Offers Residents $100 a Month

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Olivier Janssens’ Nevis Project Offers Residents $100 a Month

Belgian-born crypto millionaire, Olivier Janssens, reportedly offered to pay Nevis residents $100 per month if the government approves his development plans for a tech-friendly libertarian community on the Caribbean island.

Jannsens’ Destiny, a project aiming to buy and restructure about 2,400 acres of land on the Caribbean island, said it will begin paying residents $100 per month, “immediately once the final agreement with the government is approved,” according to an email seen by the Financial Times. 

The monthly $100 figure is an increase from the initial 30 East Caribbean dollars (US$11) announced by the project in November 2025.

The offer drew sharp criticism from opponents of the project, who said it amounted to an attempt to influence public opinion and government approval.

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Kelvin Daly, a member of the Nevis Reformation Party (NRP), condemned the move for allegedly pressuring authorities into accepting the development plans. “Janssens and De Primer have upped their bribe from US$30/month to US$100/month,” wrote Daly in a Facebook post on Monday.

“This is influence buying, a clear attempt by a private developer to interfere in the domestic socioeconomic and political affairs of our country.”

Daly urged authorities to investigate the initiative for breaches under the Anti-Corruption Act.

Project Destiny, preview. Source: Destiny.com

Destiny is seeking approval under St. Kitts and Nevis’ Special Sustainability Zones framework, a legal regime passed in 2025 that enables projects of this kind.

The initiative plans to invest $50 million into Nevis’ infrastructure to fund hospitals, health centers, villas, and create more jobs, while sharing 10% of the profit with citizens and 10% with Nevis’ sovereign wealth fund.

Cointelegraph has approached Destiny for comment on the approval timeline of the project.

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Related: Trump Organization to tokenize Maldives resort development for early investors

Crypto founders building their own cities in “ultimate exit” plan

Janssens was an early Bitcoin investor and briefly served on the Bitcoin Foundation’s board in 2015, when he publicly said the organization was “effectively bankrupt.”

Former Coinbase exchange chief technical officer, Balaji Srinivasan, announced a similar initiative at the Network State Conference in Singapore in October 2025.

During his speech, he urged crypto and tech enthusiasts to collectively buy land and create more tech-friendly communities, positioning it as Silicon Valley’s “ultimate exit” from “failing” US institutions.

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Srinivasan also shared a document that showed a total of 120 “start-up societies” in development worldwide.