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XRP Ledger activity is hitting records, but why are xrp prices down 62% from peak

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(CoinDesk)

The XRP Ledger has never been busier, but traders are yet to catch up.

Daily successful payments on XRPL recently hit a 12 month high of over 2.7 million, up from roughly 1 million in late 2025, according to XRPSCAN data. The network is processing between 2 and 2.8 million transactions per day at 20 to 26 transactions per second.

(CoinDesk)

Automated market maker pools have exploded to nearly 27,000 active pools supporting more than 16,000 unique tokens. Tokenized real-world asset value on the ledger climbed to $461 million, up 35% in the past 30 days, per RWA.xyz. Stablecoin transfer volume over the same period hit $1.19 billion.

XRP is trading at $1.37 and is down 26% year-to-date. It’s 62% below its late-2025 high of $3.65.

That gap between what the ledger is doing and what the token is doing is the most important thing happening in XRP right now, and it’s a question the market hasn’t answered yet.

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The standard crypto thesis is that network activity drives token value. More usage means more demand for the native asset, which pushes price higher. It’s the framework that worked for Ethereum during DeFi summer and for Solana during the meme coin boom.

But XRP is breaking the pattern. Every metric that should matter for a utility token is up, but the price is down.

The most likely explanation is structural. XRPL’s growing activity is increasingly driven by RLUSD, Ripple’s stablecoin, and tokenized assets that flow through XRP as a bridge currency but don’t create sustained demand for the token.

A payment that uses XRP for three seconds to settle a cross-border transaction between fiat currencies doesn’t generate the same kind of buy pressure as someone staking ETH for months or locking SOL in a DeFi protocol. The network gets busier, but the token stays liquid and transient. Activity goes up but scarcity doesn’t.

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The DeFi numbers make this stark. DeFiLlama shows XRPL’s total value locked at $47.54 million. That’s the entire DeFi ecosystem on a chain whose native token has an $84 billion market cap.

(DefiLlama)

For comparison, Solana carries roughly $4 billion in TVL. Ethereum has over $40 billion. XRP’s DeFi layer is a rounding error relative to its valuation, which means the market cap is still overwhelmingly driven by speculative positioning and ETF expectations rather than capital locked into productive on-chain activity.

The native DEX tells a similar story. Daily volume runs between $4 million and $8 million on recent data, modest for any Layer 1 and especially small for one ranked fifth by market cap.

The AMM pool growth is real, with 27,000 pools and 12 million XRP deposited, but the dollar value of that liquidity remains thin relative to the scale of the token’s market.

The RWA picture is the one area where the data genuinely supports the bull case. $461 million in distributed asset value and $1.5 billion in represented asset value puts XRPL ahead of several larger chains in specific tokenization categories.

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Stablecoin market cap on the ledger sits at $339 million with 35,800 holders. The 30-day RWA transfer volume of $149 million, up over 1,300%, suggests real institutional activity rather than wash trading. If the tokenization thesis plays out over the next few years, XRPL has a foothold that most competitors don’t.

As such, March historically averages an 18% return for XRP, and the $1.27 to $1.30 support zone has held through multiple tests. If macro conditions stabilize and the Iran conflict moves toward resolution, a relief bounce to $1.60 or higher is plausible.

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Crypto World

Bitcoin Strength Stuns Bears But They Haven’t Given Up Yet

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Bitcoin Strength Stuns Bears But They Haven’t Given Up Yet

Key takeaways:

  • Bitcoin sits above $71,000 as weak US economic data and the US and Israel-Iran war drive investors toward scarce assets.

  • Tech stocks’ correlation to BTC and rising oil prices suggest that the 5-month correction from $126,000 might not be over.

Bitcoin (BTC) jumped above $73,000 on Friday, successfully locking in the 70,000 support for the week. These gains occurred as the US reported weak economic activity data, triggering concerns of an impending recession while the war in Iran continues to drag on.

While socio-economic events and institutional inflows might have led to Bitcoin’s bullish momentum, traders are still questioning if the bear market has actually ended.

Economic turmoil, growing investor appetite for BTC back Bitcoin’s breakout

The US economy grew by a mere 0.7% between October and December 2025, which was a significant downgrade from previous estimates, according to a US Commerce Department report released on Friday. While the final report is due April 9, the risks of a recession throughout 2026 have increased, driving investors away from US Treasuries.

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US 10-year Treasury yield vs. Bitcoin/USD. Source: TradingView

Yields on the US 10-year Treasury surged to 4.26%, meaning investors are demanding a higher return to hold those assets. The mere risk of additional liquidity causes traders to seek shelter in scarce assets. This partially explains why the S&P 500 traded just 5% below its all-time high despite the worsening economic conditions.

WTI oil futures (left) vs. S&P 500 futures (right). Source: TradingView

On Monday, the S&P 500 futures plummeted to their lowest levels in over three months after oil prices briefly surged to $119.50. The US decision to temporarily authorize the purchase of Russian oil stranded at sea helped to cool off some of the risks. This move, announced by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Friday, eased the markets’ short-term concerns.

US-listed spot Bitcoin ETF daily net flows, USD. Source: CoinGlass

Institutional demand for Bitcoin has also been signaled as a potential driver for the recent bullish momentum. Spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) faced four consecutive days of net inflows totaling $583 million, while analysts estimate that Strategy (MSTR) accumulated over $900 million through the yield-bearing STRC instrument.

Related: Bitcoin’s ‘extremely precise’ macro signal puts $100K target back in play

Bitcoin’s momentum turned bullish, but the bear market carries on

At first glance, the economic backdrop points toward liquidity injections and rising institutional interest in Bitcoin. However, that doesn’t necessarily mean the five-month correction following the $126,000 peak in October 2025 has ended. 

Bitcoin’s 50-day correlation with the Nasdaq 100 sits at 84%. As concerns grow over sticky inflation and stagnant economic growth, the odds of a stock market pullback increase. Traders are unlikely to use Bitcoin as a hedge, especially given its recent underperformance compared to gold.

Adding to this, oil prices remain $30 higher than levels seen before the war in Iran began. These high fuel costs hit consumer spending and create inflationary pressure, which reduces the capital retail traders have available for crypto investments.

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Inflows to the spot BTC ETFs have surged as $2.14 billion entered the ETFs from Feb. 24 to March 4, driving a 14% rally. However, prices slipped 10% over the next four days as those flows reversed. This suggests spot ETF activity is just reacting to Bitcoin’s price rather than acting as a leading indicator.

Whether Bitcoin stays above $70,000 over the weekend may not shift investor sentiment. While a five-week consolidation and several tests of the $64,000 support show bulls’ confidence, the recent price action hasn’t delivered a clear signal for a breakout.