The prospect of a prolonged Iran war and elevated oil prices is prompting stock investors to reassess a broader array of industries, including less obvious targets from food delivery firms to cosmetics makers amid supply disruption news. Here’s a look at some sectors under investor scrutiny as broader consequences of the war unfold.

Chipmakers

Qatar’s closure of a major liquefied natural gas plant after an Iranian drone attack has taken about a third of global helium production offline, Bloomberg Economics estimates. That’s a hit to chipmakers since it’s an essential component of production and there’s no substitute.

Surging energy prices also threaten to dampen demand for semiconductors by driving up the operational costs of AI data centers.

Food and Stoves
Supply disruptions in West Asia, where India sources most of its gas, have created acute shortages in its cooking gas market. That has pummeled shares of Eternal Ltd and Swiggy Ltd as well as restaurant operator Jubilant Foodworks Ltd.

Fears of an extended cooking-gas shortage have boosted shares of manufacturers of electric cook-tops, such as TTK Prestige Ltd and Stove Kraft Ltd, as consumers look for alternatives to gas.
Automakers
Car makers may also suffer as higher oil prices threaten to stifle consumer demand. Ford Motor Co is the most vulnerable because of the disproportionate amount of its revenue that comes from oil-guzzling cars.
Toyota Motor Corp and Hyundai Motor Co may face the most impact from the decrease in East Asia sales, as the region accounts for 17% and 10% of their total sales, respectively, according to Bernstein analysts including Eunice Lee. Hyundai shares have plummeted 23% this month, with Toyota down 12%.

Retailers
Rising oil prices drive up distribution costs while also draining the discretionary spending power of consumers at the pump.

Shares of US-listed apparel brands and retailers have slid, with Lululemon Athletica Inc, Nike Inc, Macy’s Inc and RH all seeing double-digit drops this month.

Clothing suppliers in China are also bracing for higher input costs, with chemical fibers (oil-derived) such as polyester and acrylic widely used in garment manufacturing.

Fertilizers
As much as 35% of global fertilizer raw materials pass through the Strait of Hormuz, according to Morningstar DBRS analyst Andrea Petroczi-Urban. This bottleneck is expected to drive North American fertilizer prices higher as global demand intensifies. In anticipation of tightened supply, producers like Nutrien Ltd and The Mosaic Co have seen their stock prices climb.

The outlook is more somber across the Asia-Pacific region, which relies heavily on West Asian imports. Morgan Stanley economists note that Australia is particularly exposed. Stock of Dyno Nobel Ltd has fallen 9% this month, while Nufarm Ltd’s shares have declined 4%.

In India, officials have asked China to allow the sale of some urea cargoes as the war curtails the nation’s gas supplies, threatening fertilizer production in the country. Stocks including Rashtriya Chemicals & Fertilizers have dropped.

Iran remains defiant and U.S. midterm elections are less than eight months away.

Those two statements probably sum up the state of affairs better than anything else. Why? Because Iran has a new leader who is determined to follow in his father’s footsteps, and because relatively cheap Iranian military technology (mostly drones) has proven effective against the Americans’ trillion dollar military extravaganza. In fact, so effective that the Americans are trying to tell a puzzled world that the military campaign is now largely complete, that there is no Iranian navy or air force left, and that the Americans can therefore pull out quite soon.

That last point brings me to the second opening statement. A recent Reuters (TRI) poll showed that only one in four Americans support the war in Iran. With the House of Representatives looking likely to go the Democrats, the Republicans can hardly afford so much resistance. Although Trump immediately labelled the Reuters poll “fake news”, it is obvious that he is rattled. In the press conference yesterday, he desperately looked for reasons to chicken out (again).

What did he really mean when he indicated that the Americans may pull out “quite soon”? In days? In weeks? Any longer? And where does that leave the Israelis? Nobody knows. When trading started yesterday, Brent oil was over $100/barrel – up from about $65/barrel only ten days ago (Exhibit 1).

Exhibit 1: Oil prices since January 2023

Trump then went live with various suggestions. Pulling out of Iran ”quite soon” was on the agenda, but it was far from the only suggestion. He talked about releasing strategic oil reserves, and he even mentioned the possibility of easing oil sanctions against Russia. The impact was imminent. The S&P 500, which was in red most of the day ended the day +0.83%. Meanwhile, oil prices collapsed and are down to about $90/barrel this morning in Europe (Exhibit 2). Trump always chickens out!

Exhibit 2: Oil prices between 09/03/2026 and 10/03/2026

Now to the most important question: What’s next?

We believe Trump is rattled because he is no longer in full control of the Republican party. The Democrats are not the only ones trying to unsettle him. From within his own party, the angry voices are getting louder, and the objective is obvious. Should the House go to the Democrats, the next two years will become a great deal more complicated on Capitol Hill. The aim is therefore to put a lid on the can of worms Trump opened by attacking Iran and, so far, Trump appears willing to follow that line.

Precisely how the Israelis will handle a US pullout remains a big question. For years, they wanted to destroy Iran, and we are pretty sure (but don’t know for certain) that, if it was up to them, what you have seen so far was only the beginning. Will they continue without the Americans, though? We doubt it and therefore think energy prices will continue to normalise – whatever that means these days!

By Niels Clemen Jensen

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References

1. Note: The overnight spike between 09/03/2026 and 10/03/2026 not included
2. Source: Bloomberg

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Editor’s Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.