Global markets are navigating a phase of heightened uncertainty as rising oil prices and escalating tensions in West Asia begin to ripple through sectors and economies. With crude hovering around the psychologically important $100 mark,
investors are becoming increasingly cautious, and
market experts believe the environment calls for prudence rather than aggressive buying.
Speaking to ET Now, Chakri Lokapriya, CIO-Equities, LGT Wealth emphasised that the current situation demands restraint from investors even though valuations in several stocks may appear attractive.
“I hope it turns out to be some respite. But clearly the word is caution with oil hovering around $100. At best you can maybe buy a little incrementally but not really go all in,” Chakri Lokapriya said.
Attractive Prices, But Risks Remain
Market corrections in several sectors have created pockets of value, particularly in industrial and auto stocks. However, Lokapriya cautioned that lower prices alone do not necessarily make stocks compelling investments in the current environment.
“It is a very good point; that is the whole issue because you take a company like L&T. Its order book comes from the Middle East but it is an expensive stock. And the same issue applies to auto companies as well where they also export,” he said.
He explained that rising shipping and freight costs, surging oil prices, and a weakening rupee are beginning to weigh on corporate profitability. Over the past year, the Indian currency has depreciated by nearly 8–9%, adding to cost pressures for companies dependent on imports or global supply chains.
“Outside of export, shipping, freight rates, oil prices, and input costs have all gone up very sharply, including the rupee which has fallen about 8–9% over the last year. So the growth estimates at least for the next one year have come down or rather will come down. Against that backdrop, therefore, lower valuations are warranted,” Lokapriya said.
He added that if the geopolitical conflict continues for several months, the market’s upside potential for the remainder of the year could be significantly lower than what investors expected at the beginning of the year.
Oil Shock Ripples Across Sectors
The surge in crude prices has already started affecting multiple sectors that depend directly or indirectly on petrochemical inputs.
“Like you mentioned, it is petchem, agro, all the urea-related sectors, including oil-to-chemicals, tyres, paints, and some of the pipe companies. All these companies are directly or indirectly exposed to various oil and oil derivative products and chemicals and petrochemicals,” he noted.
Input costs in many of these segments have risen sharply within a short span.
“Against this backdrop, everything has gone up 50–60% in just a matter of less than a month and therefore this quarter might be okay because they have already bought it last quarter, but the next quarter the current buying would impact their margins,” Lokapriya said.
Even sectors that are not directly linked to crude oil are likely to face secondary effects.
“For the companies and sectors not directly impacted like banking, there is collateral damage. Lower economic activity translates to lower credit growth. Even consumer staples have a higher input cost and therefore while staples are considered to be low risk, in this environment not,” he explained.
Given these uncertainties, Lokapriya believes investors should remain selective and patient.
“So it is best one generally stays away or incrementally buys into the market.”
Valuations vs Growth Uncertainty
Stocks with strong order books and international exposure have also come under scrutiny as investors assess the potential impact of the conflict.
Taking the example of water treatment company VA Tech Wabag, Lokapriya acknowledged that valuations may appear attractive at current levels but warned that growth projections may still need to adjust.
“Yes, I mean, VA Wabag the valuation is also very attractive at current levels and when we use the word valuations are attractive, it implies that the medium-term growth estimates remain intact which is unlikely the case,” he said.
“Let us assume already a couple of weeks have gone into the war, which means this quarter numbers have come down. That knockdown effect will continue for the rest of this year and therefore the year after.”
He added that markets are still trying to determine the eventual bottom for growth estimates.
Banking Sector Faces Growth Concerns
Private banking stocks have also seen heightened volatility, which Lokapriya attributes largely to fears of slowing economic activity.
“It is expectation of a lower economic activity whether it is restaurants seeing lower business, higher inflation, and in general if the war continues and more importantly the oil continues to remain high, that will translate to inflation,” he said.
While fuel prices at retail pumps have not yet fully reflected the surge in crude prices, the pressure is being absorbed elsewhere in the system.
“Inflation has not yet shown directly at the petrol pump simply because the government is holding prices; it is the refiners who are taking the hit. Now at some point it will start translating even into inflation if oil prices remain high. I think that is the biggest fear,” Lokapriya added.
Airlines Under Pressure
The aviation sector, which is highly sensitive to fuel costs, could also see earnings pressure if crude prices remain elevated.
“Exactly that point which is the inflation in prices; the cost that aviation is facing is not fully passed on yet to the consumer. On the other hand, the consumer is already facing that extra inflation because of the surcharges,” Lokapriya said.
He warned that if airlines fully pass on higher costs to passengers, it could weaken demand and hurt earnings.
“Against this backdrop, earnings for InterGlobe are likely to be cut for the next quarter, not just this quarter.”
When asked whether the stock is a buy at current levels, Lokapriya advised caution.
“No, clearly not because if we know where the oil prices are going to settle at, then yes. If oil prices spike or go down, we do not know. So I would not really buy with 30–40% of the cost being fuel there.”
Incremental Buying the Safer Approach
While investors may be tempted to shift towards domestic sectors perceived as safer, Lokapriya warned that even those segments are not entirely insulated from the broader economic impact.
“You are right and in fact some of the inward sectors whether it is staples or even banks would also face some kind of collateral damage because input costs for staples go up and therefore for banks and financial services generally lower demand,” he said.
Despite the uncertainty, he acknowledged that valuations are slowly becoming more reasonable.
“If we need to buy, the valuations are beginning to look nice. So one can incrementally dip into the market at best but not be aggressive at current levels.”