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CLARITY Act Timeline Narrows as April Senate Deadline Looms

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

TLDR

  • Senate Banking Committee approval before April’s end is critical, or the CLARITY Act’s 2026 passage probability plummets
  • Prediction markets show declining confidence: Polymarket at 56% (down 9 points), Kalshi at merely 30% by June
  • Central controversy revolves around permitting stablecoin issuers to distribute yield to holders
  • Coinbase withdrew endorsement in January, asserting a flawed bill is worse than no legislation
  • Gnosis co-founder cautions the legislation might consolidate crypto control among centralized entities

Time is running short for the CLARITY Act, America’s proposed cryptocurrency market structure legislation. According to Galaxy Research head Alex Thorn, the bill requires Senate floor consideration by early May to maintain viable 2026 passage prospects. This necessitates Senate Banking Committee clearance before April concludes.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune has publicly acknowledged the April timeline appears unrealistic. Current Senate priorities center on the SAVE America Act, relegating the CLARITY Act to secondary status on the legislative calendar.

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According to Thorn, each day of postponement reduces available time for floor consideration. Without committee approval during April, he characterized 2026 passage prospects as “extremely low.”

Prediction platforms mirror this growing skepticism. Polymarket indicates the legislation’s 2026 enactment probability has declined 9 percentage points to 56%. Kalshi demonstrates greater pessimism, calculating 30% likelihood before June and merely 7% before May.

Stablecoin Yield Remains Central Flashpoint

The most contentious issue involves stablecoin yield distribution. The controversy focuses on whether stablecoin issuers should possess authority to pass interest earnings to users.

Representative French Hill stated that prohibiting stablecoin yield represents a non-negotiable requirement for Senate advancement. Traditional banking institutions contend that interest-bearing stablecoins would divert deposits from regulated financial entities.

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Cryptocurrency firms counter that reward-bearing stablecoins enhance payment utility. Coinbase retracted support during January. CEO Brian Armstrong argued the current draft undermines decentralized finance, prohibits stablecoin yield, and restricts tokenized real-world assets. “We’d rather have no bill than a bad bill,” he declared.

Senator Angela Alsobrooks suggested compromise from both factions may prove necessary. White House crypto adviser and Coinbase CLO Paul Grewal also condemned banks for impeding progress.

DeFi and Regulatory Turf Wars Still Unresolved

Thorn suggested the stablecoin controversy may not represent the final hurdle. He identified outstanding questions regarding decentralized finance regulation, developer liability protections, and SEC-CFTC jurisdictional boundaries.

Attorney Jake Chervinsky noted that banking institutions also express concern about stablecoin liquidity migrating toward DeFi platforms, beyond just yield distribution issues.

Gnosis co-founder Dr. Friederike Ernst cautioned the bill’s present framework threatens to channel all cryptocurrency activity through licensed intermediaries. She expressed concern this could consolidate crypto infrastructure control among a limited group of major institutions.

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Ernst acknowledged the legislation includes positive elements, such as safeguarding peer-to-peer transactions and self-custody rights, plus defining SEC and CFTC regulatory boundaries.

Senator Bernie Moreno expressed continued optimism for April passage and presidential signature. Thorn indicated that schedule now appears increasingly unrealistic.

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Crypto Funds Pull In $1B as 3-Week Inflow Streak Persists

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Crypto Breaking News

Momentum in crypto investment products persisted last week, underscoring resilience amid geopolitical stress and reinforcing Bitcoin’s role as a potential safe-haven asset. Data from CoinShares show a total of $1.06 billion flowing into crypto exchange-traded products (ETPs), led by $793 million into Bitcoin. The three-week inflow streak now totals roughly $2.7 billion, lifting year-to-date inflows to about $1.2 billion. Industry observers frame this as evidence of continued demand for digital assets, particularly Bitcoin, in a risk-off environment where traditional markets are sensitive to global tensions. Since the Iran crisis began, assets under management in digital-asset ETPs have risen about 9.4% to nearly $140 billion, marking a significant shift in scale and investor confidence.

Key takeaways

  • Bitcoin ETP inflows dominated, with about $793 million of the $1.06 billion weekly total, driving three consecutive weeks of positive flows and helping to push year-to-date gains toward the $1.2 billion mark.
  • Ether funds posted inflows of roughly $315.3 million last week, yet year-to-date remain in the red by around $23 million; the improved momentum partly stems from the US launch of new staking ETF listings, moving Ether exposure closer to a net-neutral position.
  • XRP faced outflows totaling about $76 million for the week, while Solana attracted roughly $9.1 million of inflows, signaling divergent sentiment across major detractors and beneficiaries within the market.
  • US spot Bitcoin ETFs kicked off their first five-day inflow streak of 2026, pulling in about $767.3 million, though year-to-date figures still show net outflows near $493 million, indicating a mixed near-term trajectory for spot exposure.
  • Short-Bitcoin products drew inflows of around $8.1 million, suggesting a nuanced, somewhat polarized market view on near-term Bitcoin direction.

Tickers mentioned: $BTC, $ETH, $XRP, $SOL

Sentiment: Bullish

Price impact: Positive. The sustained inflows into BTC-focused ETPs and broader digital-asset products point to renewed demand and a potential shift in risk-off capital toward Bitcoin as a hedge.

Market context: The ongoing ETF activity reflects a broader liquidity backdrop and evolving regulatory acceptance of crypto products in major markets. With ETH-related staking products contributing to momentum, investors are watching whether US-listed offerings can sustain inflows in an environment shaped by macro concerns and policy developments around digital assets.

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Why it matters

The persistence of inflows into crypto ETPs—especially Bitcoin—thematically reinforces a narrative that has gained traction among institutional participants: digital assets can complement traditional portfolios during periods of macro stress. The fact that Bitcoin-led products drew the lion’s share of inflows while other assets lag or reverse direction highlights the evolving core-periphery dynamics within the crypto sector, where Bitcoin remains the anchors of liquidity and perceived safety. This dynamic matters not only for traders but for asset managers seeking regulated vehicles to provide crypto exposure to a wider audience.

Ethereum’s trajectory reveals a more nuanced story. While Ether funds are still in the red year-to-date, the recent inflows coincide with the launch of new staking ETF listings in the US, which are shaping liquidity and expectations for yield-oriented crypto products. The ability of these products to move flows toward neutral parity signals that institutional appetite for Ether exposure is stabilizing, even as the broader market contends with competing narratives around yield, staking, and regulatory clarity. The reaction to staking ETFs underscores a broader trend: regulated structures can translate macro- and policy-driven developments into measurable capital movement, influencing market liquidity and price discovery across ETH-related instruments.

On the altcoin side, XRP’s outflows contrasted with modest Solana inflows, painting a picture of selective risk sentiment within the broader ecosystem. While XRP has faced persistent selling pressure, Solana’s inflows hint at continued interest in alternative layer-1 ecosystems, albeit at a smaller scale than Bitcoin. The mixed signals among major assets illustrate a market still negotiating the balance between risk, opportunity, and regulatory visibility in a rapidly evolving sector.

Finally, the unfolding story of US spot Bitcoin ETFs—tied to the first five-day inflow streak of the year—offers a useful barometer for the sector’s maturity. Despite three consecutive weeks of inflows totaling around $2.1 billion, the year-to-date tally remains negative, underscoring the volatility inherent in crypto markets and the sensitivity of flows to macro headlines and policy shifts. Investors continue to monitor whether this inflow momentum can translate into sustained positive drift, particularly as other regions contemplate or expand their own regulated crypto products.

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What to watch next

  • Upcoming weekly flow data to see if Bitcoin-led inflows sustain their momentum into consecutive weeks.
  • Status and performance of US staking ETFs and their impact on Ether-related fund flows and pricing dynamics.
  • Regulatory developments around crypto ETFs and related products, especially in the US and Europe, that could alter institutional appetite.
  • Market reaction to XRP and other major altcoins as wallets and funds re-balance in response to outflows or new product launches.
  • Continued monitoring of total assets under management in digital-asset ETPs to gauge whether the 9.4% rise since the Iran crisis translates into a longer-term structural shift.

Sources & verification

  • CoinShares Digital Asset Fund Flows Weekly report (volume-277) detailing weekly inflows and annual totals.
  • SoSoValue chart documenting weekly flows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs and the five-day inflow streak.
  • Cointelegraph article: Bitcoin ETFs add $251M as Goldman Sachs tops XRP ETF holders.
  • Cointelegraph article: Spot Bitcoin ETFs five-day inflow streak 2026.

Market reaction and key details

Crypto investment products continued to show resilience as investor demand reinforced Bitcoin’s standing within regulated markets. Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) led the charge, drawing about $793 million of the total inflows of $1.06 billion for the week, sustaining a three-week run that has injected roughly $2.7 billion into digital-asset ETPs. This momentum helped lift year-to-date inflows to approximately $1.2 billion, while total assets under management across digital-asset ETPs rose by about 9.4% since the onset of the Iran crisis, nearing $140 billion. The data suggests a growing willingness among institutional buyers to allocate to regulated crypto products even amid geopolitical tensions that typically heighten risk aversion in traditional markets.

The performance split between assets underscores a nuanced market: Ether (CRYPTO: ETH) funds posted inflows of around $315.3 million, yet year-to-date figures remain negative by roughly $23 million as demand for ETH exposure encounters the broader macro headwinds. The late-week uplift in ETH-related flows was linked to the US’s introduction of new staking ETF listings, a development that appears to be nudging Ether exposure toward net neutrality as product availability expands. The Ethereum narrative reflects how regulated products—especially those tied to staking mechanisms—can shape price dynamics and investor appetite even when asset-specific momentum is uneven.

In contrast, XRP faced outflows of about $76 million, signaling continued selective selling pressure on the asset, while Solana drew about $9.1 million in inflows, illustrating a more modest, but positive, tilt toward SOL among market participants looking for exposure beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum. Short-Bitcoin products also attracted inflows of roughly $8.1 million, a signal that market sentiment remains polarized on near-term direction, with some participants seeking hedges or tactical bets as macro catalysts unfold.

The week’s broader narrative centered on US spot Bitcoin ETFs, which marked their first five-day inflow streak of 2026 by pulling in nearly $767.3 million. Yet, despite these fresh inflows, year-to-date performance for spot BTC funds remains negative—around $493 million—highlighting that the broader bleed from earlier months has yet to be fully offset. The juxtaposition of robust weekly inflows against a still-negative YTD tally underscores the complexity of the environment: liquidity is returning in fits and starts, but the trajectory for the year remains uncertain as stakeholders weigh macro factors and regulatory signals.

Looking ahead, observers expect this week to reveal whether US spot Bitcoin ETFs can sustain positive momentum into the March and April period, following a challenging start to the year characterized by substantial outflows in January and February that were partially offset by inflows in March. The dynamic between spot BTC demand and the evolving landscape of staking and regulated products will likely shape not only fund flows but also price formation across the crypto market as investors reassess risk and return in a shifting regulatory backdrop.

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What to watch next

  • Follow weekly asset flows to determine if Bitcoin-led inflows become a longer-term pattern rather than a temporary rebound.
  • Monitor the performance and uptake of US staking ETFs and any regulatory clarifications that impact Ether exposure through regulated vehicles.
  • Track XRP and SOL demand as new product launches and ecosystem developments unfold, potentially reshaping allocations among major altcoins.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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PEPE, BONK outpace BTC price, ETH as “barbell strategy” wins out: Crypto Daybook Americas

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CD20 components

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Even as bitcoin rallies, non-serious tokens such as memecoins are emerging as the biggest winners.

Among the majors, bitcoin jumped more than 2% in 24 hours, and at one point early Monday briefly topped $74,300 for the first time since early February. Other tokens including XRP (XRP) and solana (SOL) gained over 4%, and ether (ETH) rose 7%. The CoinDesk 20 Index added nearly 4%.

But the top-performing token among the top 100 over the past 24 hours is the memecoin PEPE, which has surged 19%. Its compatriots BONK and PENGU are up over 10%, and SHIB also outpaced ether’s 7% rise. In fact, five of the day’s best-performing coins are meme tokens.

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This illustrates a trend observed since 2023–24. Observers have dubbed it the “barbell strategy:” holding a serious token like bitcoin, with growing institutional adoption, on one end, while speculating in smaller, non-serious coins such as memecoins on the other.

The behavior contrasts with the previous bull market, when BTC rallies tended to lift more productive sectors of the market, such as DeFi and play-to-earn projects.

One possible reason for the absence of a so-called “meaningful alt season” is the flood of new altcoins, which has spread demand across thousands of projects. CoinMarketCap data show the total number of tokens has surpassed 37.8 million in just three years, highlighting the massive influx of new projects.

Some observers are pinning hopes on the Clarity Act in the U.S. to reinvigorate the broader market. Others caution that time is running short for decisive regulatory action.

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In traditional markets, S&P 500 futures traded higher even as oil prices tested the $100 level. Nvidia’s GTC conference begins Monday, and CEO Jensen Huang could outline the company’s AI roadmap, an event the crypto industry will watch closely for signals on data center demand. Stay alert!

Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today

What to Watch

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.

  • Crypto
  • Macro
    • March 16, 8:30 a.m.: Canada consumer price index (CPI) YoY for February (Prev. 2.3%)
  • Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
    • March 16: Bakkt Holdings (BKKT), post-market, -$0.47
    • March 16: Bitcoin Depot (BTM), pre-market, -$0.47
    • March 16: Cango (CANG), post-market, -$0.34

Token Events

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.

  • Governance votes & calls
    • Decentraland DAO is voting on whether to allow registered users to customize the color of their avatar name tag and to add a more accessible volume slider to the UI sidebar. Voting ends March 16 and 17.
  • Unlocks
    • March 16: Arbitrum (ARB) to unlock 1.78% of its circulating supply worth $9.65 millon.
  • Token Launches

Conferences

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.

Market Movements

  • BTC is up 2.22% from 4 p.m. ET Sunday at $73,300.29 (24hrs: +2.02%)
  • ETH is up 5.98% at $2,259.15 (24hrs: +6.57%)
  • CoinDesk 20 is up 3.81% at 2,130.70 (24hrs: +3.79%)
  • Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is unchanged at 2.74%
  • BTC funding rate is at 0.0041% (4.4435% annualized) on Binance
CD20 components
  • DXY is unchanged at 100.29
  • Gold futures are down 1.36% at $4,983.70
  • Silver futures are down 2.80% at $78.65
  • Nikkei 225 closed down 0.13% at 53,751.15
  • Hang Seng closed up 1.45% at 25,834.02
  • FTSE 100 is unchanged at 10,261.99
  • Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.67% at 5,678.08
  • DJIA closed on Friday down 0.26% at 46,558.47
  • S&P 500 closed down 0.61% at 6,632.19
  • Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.93% at 22,105.36
  • S&P/TSX Composite closed down 0.91% at 32,541.93
  • S&P 40 Latin America closed down 0.16% at 3,584.57
  • U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 1 bps at 4.28%
  • E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.37% at 6,660.50
  • E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.45% at 24,504.25
  • E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 0.78% at 46,957.00

Bitcoin Stats

  • BTC Dominance: 59.22% (-0.29%)
  • Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03088 (3.24%)
  • Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 947 EH/s
  • Hashprice (spot): $32.00
  • Total fees: 1.97 BTC / $140,987
  • CME Futures Open Interest: 111,895 BTC
  • BTC priced in gold: 14.8 oz.
  • BTC vs gold market cap: 4.92%

Technical Analysis

BTC's daily price swings in candlestick format. (TradingView)
BTC’s daily chart. (TradingView)
  • The chart shows bitcoin’s daily price swings in candlestick format since September 2025.
  • Despite the recent bounce, BTC remains trapped in a sideways grind marked by trendlines connecting highs hit on Feb. 8 and March 4 and lows from Feb. 6 and Feb. 24.
  • The next move largely depends on the direction in which the range play is resolved.
  • A similar price action unfolded in the two months to mid-January and ended deepening the selloff to nearly $60,000.

Crypto Equities

  • Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Friday at $195.53 (+1.19%), +2.72% at $200.84 in pre-market
  • Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $22.35 (+8.34%), +2.68% at $22.95
  • MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $9.32 (+6.39%), +3.54% at $9.65
  • Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $14.04 (–3.17%), +2.42% at $14.38
  • Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $16.49 (+1.54%), +0.73% at $16.61
  • CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.76 (+2.20%), +3.18% at $10.07
  • Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $8.97 (–9.94%)
  • CoinShares Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $38.28 (+0.83%)
  • Circle Internet Group (CRCL): closed at $115.38 (+1.05%), +2.88% at $118.70
  • Bullish (BLSH): closed at $36.62 (+1.05%), +2.40% at $37.50

Crypto Treasury Companies

  • Strategy (MSTR): closed at $139.67 (+1.70%), +3.10% at $144.00
  • Strive Asset Management (ASST): closed at $9.53 (+7.93%), +3.04% at $9.82
  • SharpLink (SBET): closed at $7.53 (+0.67%), +5.84% at $7.97
  • Upexi (UPXI): closed at $1.11 (+19.35%), +9.91% at $1.22
  • Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.18 (+2.61%)

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

  • Daily net flows: $180.4 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $56.12 billion
  • Total BTC holdings ~ 1.29 million

Spot ETH ETFs

  • Daily net flows: $26.7 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $11.82 billion
  • Total ETH holdings ~ 5.73 million

Source: Farside Investors

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Bitcoin Price Breaks Above 50-day SMA as Analysts See More Gains for BTC

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Bitcoin Price Breaks Above 50-day SMA as Analysts See More Gains for BTC

Bitcoin (BTC) found fresh strength during the early Asian trading hours on Monday as bulls eyed further short-term gains. 

Key takeaways:

  • Bitcoin price rises to a six-week high of $74,400 on Monday, liquidating $300 million in shorts.

  • The 50-day moving average above $71,120 is a key support level to watch for BTC/USD going forward.

Bitcoin leads market in new relief bounce

Data from TradingView showed 2.5% daily BTC price gains, with BTC/USD rising as high as $74,400 for the first time since Feb. 4.

BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Ether (ETH), the largest altcoin by market capitalization, was trading at $2,250 at the time of writing, up 7% over the last 24 hours. Fifth-placed XRP (XRP) has gained nearly 5% over the last day to trade just above $1.48.

Solana (SOL) has also posted significant gains among the top 10 cryptocurrencies, up 6% over the same period. As a result, the global crypto market capitalization is up 4% over the day to $2.49 trillion on Monday.

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Performance of top-cap cryptocurrencies: Source: CoinMarketCap

“Bitcoin pumped $1,800 in just 30 minutes, hitting a 40-day high of $74,300,” analyst Bull Theory said in the latest post on X, adding:

“It’s surprising how risk assets are performing better than safe-haven assets like gold and silver during an active war.”

Bitcoin’s relief rally is accompanied by significant short liquidations across the crypto market totaling $300 million over the last 24 hours. Meanwhile, Bitcoin futures open interest (OI) continued to rise, with monitoring resource Coinglass showing a 6% jump to $49.2 billion in the past 24 hours.

Commenting on the data, Coinglass said that the same pattern of the OI rising in tandem with the price “preceded the last volatility spikes,” adding:

“New fuel is building again.”

Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Markets, Price Analysis, Market Analysis
Bitcoin OI vs. price on Binance. Source: X/CoinGlass 

Bulls reclaim the 50-day BTC price trend line

Bitcoin’s latest recovery saw it reclaim a key support level in the form of the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $71,120.

“Impressive strength on BTC today – set to close a daily candle above its 50MA for the first time in 55 days,” said trader and investor MacroSRG in a Monday post on X.

BTC rallied 33% in just a month following the last time the price reclaimed this trend line after a long period of trading below it.

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BTC/USD daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Bitcoin is also “set to close 8 consecutive daily green candles for the first time since December 2020,” analyst Max Crypto said in an X post, adding: 

“Last time this happened, BTC rallied 145% in just 2 months.”

Echoing this, MN Capital founder Michael van de Poppe said that while Bitcoin continues to build momentum, its valuation against gold “rallies substantially,” adding:

“There’s more upside to come; $ETH broke out of the range, which means it’s a matter of time until Bitcoin continues the rally towards $80K.”

Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Markets, Price Analysis, Market Analysis
BTC/USD daily chart. Source: Michael van de Poppe

Along with the 50-day SMA, the BTC/USD pair now also trades above other key long-term levels, including the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) and the old 2021 all-time high at $68,300 and $69,400, respectively.