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Bitcoin (BTC) climbs as Iran conflict tests crypto’s safe-haven case, says Bernstein

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BTC long-term bull case remains, says Fabian Dori

Bitcoin’s recent strength during geopolitical uncertainty reflects a fundamental shift in the asset’s ownership structure, according to Wall Street broker Bernstein.

The cryptocurrency climbed roughly 7% last week, with ether (ETH) gaining about 9%, outperforming gold and global equity indices as markets reacted to escalating global conflict. The broker said the performance highlights how institutional ownership is reshaping the market.

“We believe the combination of Strategy’s treasury model and ETFs have transformed bitcoin’s ownership structure,” analysts led by Gautam Chhugani said in the Monday report.

Strategy, which the analysts described as acting like a “bitcoin central bank of last resort,” has continued buying through the downturn. The firm extended its streak of weekly purchases, acquiring about $1.57 billion worth of BTC, according to a Monday filing.

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The company, led by Executive Chairman Michael Saylor, bought 22,337 bitcoin at an average price of $70,194 each, bringing its total holdings to 761,068 BTC acquired at an average cost of $75,696 per coin.

Strategy has also expanded its preferred equity financing strategy through the STRC product, which offers investors high-yield income linked to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) and has generated rising trading volumes. The additional liquidity helps fund more bitcoin purchases through at-the-market offerings.

Meanwhile, spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have attracted about $2.1 billion in inflows over the past three weeks, bringing ETF ownership to roughly 6.1% of total bitcoin supply. The analysts said these vehicles are increasingly drawing allocations from wealth managers, pension funds and sovereign investors.

Retail investors have been net sellers in recent months, but long-term holders remain dominant. About 60% of bitcoin supply has not moved for more than a year, a signal that many investors continue to treat the asset as a long-term store of value, the report said.

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Bitcoin’s recent outperformance during geopolitical stress has also revived debate about its role as “digital gold.” While the token lagged the precious metal for much of the past year, its gains during the latest bout of global uncertainty have prompted some analysts to argue the asset is beginning to behave more like a geopolitical hedge, though the comparison remains contested.

For equity investors, Bernstein added that Strategy (MSTR) remains a high-beta way to gain exposure to bitcoin’s upside, currently trading at about a 14% discount to its bitcoin net asset value on a basic share basis.

The largest cryptocurrency was trading 4.4% higher around $73,900 at publication time. Ether, the second-largest crypto by market capitalization was up 8.4% at $2,273.

Read more: CEO of crypto investment firm Keyrock says bitcoin is undervalued, entering ‘transition year’

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SEC drops lawsuit against BitClout founder Nader Al-Naji over DeSo crypto project

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SEC drops lawsuit against BitClout founder Nader Al-Naji over DeSo crypto project

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) ended its civil enforcement action against BitClout founder Nader Al-Naji and several related defendants, saying the decision was “based on the particular facts and circumstances of this case.”

In a joint stipulation filed March 12, the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York, the SEC and Al-Naji agreed to close the case, ending the litigation permanently and preventing the agency from refiling the same claims.

The SEC filed the lawsuit in July 2024, accusing Al-Naji of violating securities laws through the crypto-based social network project BitClout, later associated with the decentralized social blockchain DeSo. The SEC and Department of Justice charged Al-Naji with wire fraud and the sale of unregistered securities.

The charges claimed Al-Naji raised approximately $257 million from the sale of BitClout’s native token, BTCLT. They alleged he led investors to believe the money would be used to pay him and other BitClout employees, but instead spent “more than $7 million of investor funds on personal expenditures,” renting a mansion in Beverly Hills and “extravagant cash gifts.”

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The case also named several “relief defendants,” including Buse Desticioğlu Al-Naji, Joumana Bahouth Al-Naji, Intangible Holdings LLC, Firestorm Media LLC, Viridian City LLC and the DeSo Foundation.

BitClout, which debuted in early 2021, was promoted as a proof-of-work blockchain designed to run and monetize social media, but quickly drew controversy. The platform automatically created profiles for prominent figures by scraping their accounts on X, then still known as Twitter, without consent, prompting a cease-and-desist letter from law firm Anderson Kill alleging violations of California’s right-of-publicity law, CoinDesk reported at the time.

Critics also argued the project’s “creator coin” model could incentivize reputational attacks, because users could profit from shorting someone’s token while damaging their reputation. Others raised concerns that users had to convert bitcoin into BitClout’s BTCLT token to use the platform without an easy way to convert it back, effectively locking funds on the site.

Despite the backlash, Al-Naji said the project attracted backing from major venture firms including Andreessen Horowitz, Sequoia, Coinbase Ventures and Digital Currency Group.

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Al-Naji and the relief defendants waived any claims for attorney’s fees or damages related to the investigation or litigation.

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Olema Pharmaceuticals (OLMA) Stock Jumps 9% Following Fourth Quarter Earnings Surprise

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OLMA Stock Card

TLDR

  • Olema Pharmaceuticals (OLMA) shares surged 8.5% Monday following a Q4 earnings beat, posting a loss of $0.50 per share versus the anticipated $0.51.
  • The biotech firm recorded a GAAP net loss of $46.1 million in Q4 2025 and $162.5 million across the full fiscal year.
  • Stifel maintained its Buy rating with a $48 price target post-earnings, highlighting the company’s cash reserves lasting through mid-2028.
  • Roche’s recent persevERA trial failure has sparked concerns regarding Olema’s OPERA-02 trial prospects.
  • Wall Street consensus leans “Moderate Buy” with a mean price target of $41, while shares are down 41% YTD despite a 234% surge over the trailing year.

Olema Pharmaceuticals (OLMA) shares rallied 8.5% during Monday’s trading session following the release of fourth-quarter results that narrowly topped analyst projections. The stock peaked at $16.07 intraday before closing near $15.96, marking a solid gain from the previous close of $14.71.


OLMA Stock Card
Olema Pharmaceuticals, Inc., OLMA

The biopharmaceutical company disclosed a quarterly loss of $0.50 per share for Q4 2025, surpassing the Street’s expectation of a ($0.51) loss by one cent. While modest, the earnings surprise proved sufficient to drive investor enthusiasm.

For fiscal year 2025, Olema recorded a GAAP net loss totaling $162.5 million. The fourth quarter alone contributed $46.1 million to that deficit. Management opted not to host an earnings conference call following the release.

The stock’s performance has been nothing short of volatile. While OLMA has delivered a remarkable 234% return over the past twelve months, shares had tumbled 41% year-to-date prior to Monday’s rally.

Trading activity registered at 518,220 shares — significantly below the stock’s typical daily volume of approximately 1.6 million. The subdued volume suggests investors may be proceeding cautiously rather than piling in aggressively.

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Analyst Reaction

Stifel responded swiftly to the earnings release, reaffirming its Buy rating and $48 price objective. The firm emphasized Olema’s financial runway stretching into mid-2028 as a significant advantage, providing adequate resources to reach several critical milestones ahead of palazestrant’s anticipated commercial debut.

Palazestrant is currently in development for second- and third-line metastatic breast cancer treatment, with market entry projected for 2027.

The broader analyst community maintains an optimistic outlook. Ten analysts have assigned Buy ratings to the stock, with one Hold and one Sell rating. The consensus price target stands at $41.00 — representing substantial upside from current trading levels.

Oppenheimer reaffirmed its Outperform rating on March 9th. JPMorgan lifted its price target from $29 to $32 last November, maintaining an Overweight stance. TD Cowen also holds a Buy rating, highlighting palazestrant’s superior exposure compared to rival therapies.

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H.C. Wainwright reduced its target to $38 but retained its Buy rating in response to recent clinical trial developments.

The Roche Factor

Earlier this month, Roche announced that its persevERA clinical trial — assessing giredestrant combined with palbociclib in first-line metastatic breast cancer patients — failed to achieve statistical significance on its primary progression-free survival endpoint. While a favorable numerical trend was observed, the miss carries significant implications.

The persevERA outcome is considered a potential indicator for Olema’s own Phase 3 OPERA-02 trial, which is evaluating palazestrant. Topline results from OPERA-02 aren’t anticipated until 2028 at the earliest.

Stifel noted that Roche’s complete persevERA dataset will likely be unveiled at ASCO 2026, which could represent the next significant catalyst — or obstacle — for OLMA shares.

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Regarding financial health, Olema maintains a stronger cash position than debt, boasting a current ratio of 8.03. The stock’s 50-day moving average currently sits at $24.18, considerably above Monday’s trading range.

Institutional ownership accounts for 91.78% of outstanding shares. Meanwhile, company insiders have been net sellers — divesting approximately 805,501 shares valued at roughly $23 million during the past three months.

The company currently commands a market capitalization of approximately $1.09 billion.

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Abra Plans Nasdaq Debut in $750M SPAC Deal With New Providence

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Abra Plans Nasdaq Debut in $750M SPAC Deal With New Providence

Digital asset wealth management platform Abra is going public through a reverse merger with special purpose acquisition company New Providence Acquisition Corp. III, marking the latest attempt by a crypto company to access public markets as investor interest in the sector rebounds.

On Monday, Abra announced that it had signed a definitive agreement with the blank-check company, or SPAC, valuing the crypto wealth manager at a pre-money equity valuation of $750 million.

Existing investors, including Pantera Capital, Blockchain Capital, RRE Ventures, Adams Street and SBI, will roll over their shares into the combined entity rather than cashing out.

Following the transaction, the new entity is expected to trade on the Nasdaq under the ticker symbol ABRX.

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The public company will focus on crypto wealth management, offering custody and segregated accounts, yield strategies, crypto-backed loans, treasury management and trading services.

Source: Julian Klymochko

Founded in 2014 by CEO Bill Barhydt, Abra operates a digital asset platform serving high-net-worth investors, institutions and family offices. Its investment management arm, Abra Capital Management LP, is registered as an investment adviser with the US Securities and Exchange Commission, allowing it to provide portfolio management services to clients.

Abra has been restructuring its US operations following regulatory scrutiny. In 2024, the company reached a settlement with regulators in 25 US states over its Abra Earn crypto lending product, agreeing to return assets to investors and wind down the program for US clients. The settlement came as the company shifted its focus toward institutional and wealth management services.

Related: VC Roundup: Big money, few deals as crypto venture funding dries up

Crypto companies increasingly eye public markets

Abra is one of several digital asset companies seeking public listings as the industry looks to attract traditional capital.

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In the past year, SPACs have drawn renewed interest as a route for crypto-related companies to enter the public markets, Jessica Groza, partner with Kohrman Jackson & Krantz, said. “While this model offers rapid liquidity, valuation flexibility, and access to institutional capital, it also carries substantial risks: volatility, structural dilution, opaque disclosures, technical complexity and regulatory uncertainty.”

Traditional initial public offerings (IPO) have been the preferred route for several big name crypto players over the past year, including stablecoin issuer Circle Internet Group, which listed on the New York Stock Exchange in June 2025, and crypto exchange Gemini, which debuted on Nasdaq later that year. 

Source: The Wall Street Journal

Blockchain-focused financial services company Figure Technologies and institutional trading platform Bullish also went public via IPO during the same period.

Other companies are reportedly exploring public offerings as well, including hardware wallet maker Ledger and institutional crypto custodian Copper.

Related: Crypto Biz: Circle stock defies Wall Street and digital asset selloff

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