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Top economists downgrade Germany’s growth forecasts

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Germany’s leading economic institutes have downgraded the country’s growth forecast for this year, warning it will struggle to return to pre-pandemic rates of economic expansion.

In a joint report published on Thursday, the institutes — DIW Berlin, Ifo, IfW Kiel, IWH and RWI — said Germany’s GDP would shrink by 0.1 per cent this year and expand by 0.8 per cent next year and 1.3 per cent in 2026.

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This spring they had forecast growth of 0.1 per cent this year and 1.4 per cent in 2025.

“The German economy has been stagnating for more than two years,” said Geraldine Dany-Knedlik of the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin).

A “slow recovery” would set in during the next few quarters, driven by a recovery in private consumption, but “economic growth will not return to its pre-pandemic trend for the foreseeable future”, she said.

The reasons were the deep structural problems facing the economy. “Structural adjustments to decarbonisation, digitisation, demographic change and stronger international competition are casting a shadow over Germany’s long-term economic prospects,” she said.

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The institutes said German exports had not recovered since the pandemic at rates seen more broadly in international trade, due to rising energy prices and a shortage of skilled workers and because they were now less competitive on price than products being made in China.

The institutes’ latest forecast adds to a steady drumbeat of bad economic news that is causing increasing concern in Berlin.

Official data shows industrial production has fallen, orders are down, investment levels are declining and private consumption is in the doldrums, as Germans respond to increased political uncertainty by reining in spending.

The mood is particularly downbeat among Germany’s manufacturers. A key measure of sentiment in the sector, the Ifo index, this month dropped to its lowest level since June 2020, when the pandemic paralysed large parts of the economy.

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Companies are increasingly responding to the worsening environment by cutting staff. Volkswagen, which has been buffeted by weak demand for electric vehicles at home and growing competition in the Chinese market, has announced it will close some German factories for the first time in its 87-year history.

Auto supplier ZF Friedrichshafen announced last month it would cut 14,000 jobs in Germany over the next four years. Meanwhile, cruise shipbuilder Meyer Werft is being bailed out with German taxpayers’ money after surging energy and raw material costs drove it to the brink of collapse.

The institutes noted that the weakness in the economy was beginning to affect the labour market, with “slightly increased unemployment”.

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Germany’s jobless rate is about 6 per cent, up from 5.7 per cent a year ago.

They also warned of the effect increased political uncertainty in Berlin was having on levels of investment.

Speculation has been swirling that Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s fragile coalition of Social Democrats, Greens and liberals could fall apart amid sharp policy disagreements, most recently over the 2025 budget.

Dany-Knedlik said the febrile political mood and confusion about the direction of policy was becoming a “risk factor” for the economy.

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“Concern that a government coalition in which the parties are clearly pursuing different goals could become incapable of action is growing,” she said, adding that this could further deter companies from investing.

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Start-up advice firms ‘driving market innovation’

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Start-up advice firms 'driving market innovation'

A new generation of start-up advice firms is leading the post-private-equity-backed consolidation market with innovation and best practice, according to Platforum.

The consultancy said these start-up advice firms are “reshaping the market” once dominated by PE firms.

Private equity has played a big role in driving M&A activity in recent years with several firms acquired. And over half of advisers are now working at firms with more than 50 advisers.

The pace of PE consolidation has slowed in the past year due to higher interest rates and increased regulatory scrutiny.

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However, Platforum said consolidation has also led to the rise of start-up advice firms, as many have been formed by breakaway advisers from acquired firms.

And there are others led by entrepreneurially minded advisers ready to branch off on their own.

A recent Platforum survey of 264 advisers found that over a quarter (26%) of advisers are working in firms that are less than 10 years old, half of those founded since 2020.

It said these newer firms tend to follow similar business models, particularly those that started during the pandemic.

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They are more likely to use technology to boost efficiency and data analysis, have more academic qualifications with many attaining chartered status, outsource their investment propositions instead of managing them in-house and adopt evidence-based investment strategies.

The barriers to entry are minimal for financial advisers who start their own businesses, especially for those who have existing clients.

Starting costs are often low compared to other industries because of network turn-key solutions, manageable capital requirements, minimal start-up overheads, outsourcing options and favourable cash flow.

Platforum analyst Mariam Pourshoushtari said: “The recent wave of PE-backed consolidation has undeniably reshaped the UK advice market.

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“However, less attention has been given to the new generation of dynamic, lean, tech-driven firms emerging in its wake. These businesses are also transforming the market, often leading in innovation and best practices.”

Starting firms from scratch can be a daunting enterprise for newly qualified advisers.

It often requires a few years to attract enough clients to become profitable and it takes time to gain the experience and soft skills required for long-term business sustainability, according to Platforum.

However, many commentators say that despite the increasing regulatory demands, newer firms are set up with these rules in mind from day one, helping them avoid the expensive restructuring that older firms often have to navigate.

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CME expands lithium futures battle with LME as battery demand soars

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CME Group has launched contracts that track the price of the raw material for lithium batteries, stepping up its rivalry with the London Metal Exchange for dominance of the global market for battery metals.

The US exchange on Monday said it planned to launch futures on spodumene, the rocks that are mined for the lithium chemicals used in electric vehicle batteries.

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Its move marks a new front as the world’s largest commodities exchanges compete to be the main venue for producers and miners to trade battery metals as new technologies like electric vehicles spur long-term demand.

Until now the lithium futures contracts available — in London, Chicago, Guangzhou and Singapore — have been for processed forms of lithium such as lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate, which are key ingredients in electric vehicle batteries and for industrial processing. Spodumene is lithium-rich rock dug from the ground, and Australia is the largest producer.

Most lithium processing takes place in China, and prices for downstream chemicals such as lithium hydroxide are often correlated to spodumene rock prices.

“We know for sure that battery metals will be one of the critical minerals of the future, and underlying demand will go up,” said Jin Hennig, global head of metals at CME Group.

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The US group’s move underscores how exchanges are trying to attract more customers, by offering futures that hedge against more stages of the global lithium supply chain.

Prices for lithium chemicals have see-sawed over the past two years, first surging because of electric vehicle demand then crashing because of a glut of lithium production and a slowdown in EV growth.

The CME and the LME launched their first lithium hydroxide contracts only in 2021, with the Singapore Exchange offering their own futures the following year. However the CME has pulled ahead of the LME for contracts such as lithium hydroxide and cobalt.

Key beneficiaries of the new spodumene contract are likely to include producers in Australia, which is the world’s biggest miner of the lithium-containing ore.

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The CME’s cash-settled spodumene futures contract will be launched on Oct 28 if approved by regulators, and is based on an assessment of spodumene delivered into China by Fastmarkets, a commodities data company.

Przemek Koralewski, head of market development at Fastmarkets, said the CME was edging ahead of the LME in terms of securing market share for its battery metals contracts.

Trading on the CME’s lithium hydroxide contract has surged more than 700 per cent, in volume terms, during the first eight months of this year, compared with the same period a year ago.

“The opportunity is huge, that’s why multiple exchanges are competing in this space,” said Koralewski, adding that as the lithium market grows its market structure could become more like oil, where the value of the derivatives traded are many times larger than the sales value of the physical product.

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Industry analysts have drawn potential parallels between the lithium market and the iron ore market, which used to be largely traded on annual fixed price contracts until 2010. As China’s demand for iron ore surged, causing the annual contracts to break down, trading and hedging iron ore with futures has exploded.

At present lithium hydroxide is still primarily a physical market, with derivatives representing just 13 per cent of the physical market for lithium hydroxide, Koralewski noted.

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Millions of energy customers must take meter reading NOW or risk higher bills as price cap rises

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Millions of energy customers must take meter reading NOW or risk higher bills as price cap rises

MILLIONS of households need to take and submit meter readings now to avoid paying too much for their energy.

Bill payers have until tomorrow to get an up-to-date reading before the Ofgem price cap goes up by 10%.

Millions of households need to take an energy meter reading ahead of tomorrow

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Millions of households need to take an energy meter reading ahead of tomorrowCredit: EPA

It will see the average dual-fuel bill paid by a direct debit customer hiked by £149 from £1,568 to £1,717, although you could pay more or less based on your usage.

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It’s important to submit a meter reading around the time the rates change to make sure all your energy usage up until that point is charged at the lower rate.

If you don’t, you will be given an estimated bill which means some of your energy usage after October 1 could be charged at the new higher rate.

If you have a smart meter, you don’t need to take a reading as information is automatically sent to your supplier.

Read more on Energy Bills

However, you should do a quick check to make sure it is working properly and reporting your usage accurately.

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There’s also no need to submit a meter reading if you’re on a fixed energy tariff or have a traditional prepayment meter.

If you do have a non-smart energy meter, the exact deadline for submitting readings differs depending on your supplier.

Some will allow you to backdate the reading from the date it was meant to be submitted.

In some cases, you have an extra two weeks to submit a reading.

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Here are the deadlines suppliers have confirmed to The Sun for submitting meter reads as the energy price cap changes.

How to cut energy costs and get help with FOUR key household bills

It comes after Martin Lewis urged households to go for fixed energy deals to save on their bills as experts at Cornwall Insights predict the price cap will fall by 1% in January.

British Gas customers can submit their meter readings up until October 14.

This can be done through an online account, through the British Gas app, over the phone or through a form on the firm’s website.

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You can call British Gas on 0330 100 0056 Monday to Friday between 9am and 5pm.

EDF customers will be able to back date their meter reads at any time up to and including Wednesday October 9.

Customers will be able to leave meter reads via the EDF App, or online via their MyAccount. Readings can also be submitted via telephone, email or by text and WhatsApp.

Octopus Energy customers have until the end of October 8 to submit their meter readings.

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Meter readings can be submitted through online accounts, a form on the provider’s website, app or email.

Customers can submit their meter readings via the app, online account, phone, Whatsapp or webchat at any time. 

Scottish Power has no deadline for meter readings. Customers can update meter readings as and when they wish to provide them.

If you are on a standard variable or default tariff with Scottish Power, then the energy price cap will automatically apply.

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However, if your prices need to increase as a result, there’s no need to contact them.

Scottish Power said: “We’ll write to you by letter or email to let you know what your new prices will be before the change takes place.”

How to take a meter reading

Taking a meter reading should only take a minute, and once you have noted down the figures you can usually give to your provider by text, online or through an app.

Look up the individual options with your own supplier.

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It’s a good idea to take a quick picture of your meter reading when you submit it – just in case you need it as evidence in any disputes that arise.

Exactly how you take a meter reading depends on the type of meter you have.

Electricity meters

If you have a digital electricity meter, you will just see a row of six numbers – five in black and one in red.

Take down the five numbers in black – you don’t need the red number.

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If you are on an Economy 7 or 10 tariff which gives you cheaper electricity at night – you will have two rows of numbers and need both.

If you have a traditional dial meter you will need to read the first five dials from left to right, again you don’t need the red ones.

If the pointer is between two numbers, write down the lower figure and if it is between nine and zero write down the number nine.

If the dial is directly over a number, write down that number and underline it.

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If you’ve underlined a number, check the next dial to the right.

If the pointer on that dial is between nine and zero, reduce the number you’ve underlined by one.

For example, if you originally wrote down five, change it to four.

Gas meters

If you have a digital metric meter showing five numbers and then a decimal place, you only need to write down the first five numbers from left to right.

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If you have a digital imperial meter, your meter will read four black numbers and two red numbers – note down the four black numbers only.

If you have a dial gas meter, follow the same steps as the dial electricity meter, but you don’t need to follow the process of underlining figures.

How do I calculate my energy bill?

BELOW we reveal how you can calculate your own energy bill.

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To calculate how much you pay for your energy bill, you must find out your unit rate for gas and electricity and the standing charge for each fuel type.

The unit rate will usually be shown on your bill in p/kWh.The standing charge is a daily charge that is paid 365 days of the year – irrespective of whether or not you use any gas or electricity.

You will then need to note down your own annual energy usage from a previous bill.

Once you have these details, you can work out your gas and electricity costs separately.

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Multiply your usage in kWh by the unit rate cost in p/kWh for the corresponding fuel type – this will give you your usage costs.

You’ll then need to multiply each standing charge by 365 and add this figure to the totals for your usage – this will then give you your annual costs.

Divide this figure by 12, and you’ll be able to determine how much you should expect to pay each month from April 1.

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New challenges put the Bretton Woods institutions at a crossroads

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The writer is a former senior UN and World Bank official and a member of the external advisory panel to the Bretton Woods institutions, together with Patrick Achi, former prime minister of Côte d’Ivoire, and Sri Mulyani Indrawati, outgoing finance minister of Indonesia

Just over 80 years ago, delegates from 44 nations met in bucolic Bretton Woods in New Hampshire. Freed from big city distractions, they agreed over three exhausting weeks the treaties that were to establish two world-changing institutions, the IMF and World Bank. 

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Kristalina Georgieva and Ajay Banga, the current heads of the two bodies, took a small group of us back there last week to begin a discussion on where next for the Bretton Woods institutions. For a world again in crisis, what can they do to help it recover? Unlike that first conference, whose isolation helped limit developing country and civil society participation, this retreat was meant to begin a wider global debate. The more voices the better.

Expectations are low for multilateralism today in a fragmented world. But many delegates had dodged German U-boats to get to the 1944 conference. The world was far from at peace. Still, the legend was established: statesmanship prevailed and politics seemed suspended. But is that true? In fact, they were consumed by geopolitical rifts that were not dissimilar from those of today.

The Soviets were scowling spoilers on the sidelines. The US had a bee in its bonnet that pre-Mao China must be the fourth largest shareholder — for which there was no economic rationale. The Europeans were convinced the Americans were out to break them on war loans. The handful of developing countries present felt that funding for their advancement was being ignored in favour of Europe’s reconstruction. All the delegates wanted a bigger shareholding than the drafters proposed. In sum, much like today’s messy multilateral negotiations.

Yet war evidently focused minds. Today, a set of new challenges threatens to lay humanity low. The biggest — climate, inequality, and migration — are inherently uncontainable within national borders. As we race through the climate tipping points, water levels could threaten cities from New York to Lagos, Manila to Dubai.

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Migration is overwhelming politics in a number of countries. More than 40 per cent of people live in nations where spending on public debt repayments exceeds that on health or education. But the world seems caught on a path of low global growth and inflationary pressures that remove the capacity to take on these challenges, and a broken politics that diminishes the will to even do so.

The same conventional wisdom that says a war was needed to spark bold action in 1944, today argues the contrary: conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East leave the world too divided to show similar resolution. US-China competition, the rise of middle powers such as India and Brazil and a healthy reluctance of smaller countries to be herded into superpower blocs have compounded a sense of global ungovernability.

Economics may, however, be a bit easier than politics. Democrats and autocrats alike need growth, investment and financial stability. The BWIs rightly have their critics, but they are the leading international public providers of finance, advice and surveillance.

Today, as their relative influence declines in an enlarged global economy, the BWIs are at a crossroads. The UN has called for their revamp. They have had a mixed life cycle of effective post-world war stabilisation. US-Soviet tensions rose. Amid decolonisation and modern state building they became associated with unpopular economic adjustment programmes. A 20-year spurt in global poverty reduction eased the criticism but lost momentum some 15 years ago. Years of drift have followed as health, education and quality-of-life indicators have in many cases gone into reverse. 

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We want to take the conversation we began last week to town halls and social media audiences around the globe: what can these institutions do to help the world? We have questions around the BWIs’ priorities, governance, economic model, relationships with their country borrowers and partner networks. These must be boldly answered if they are to enjoy the trust and authority to help redirect us back to resilience and growth. Their two leaders have the vision to do just that but the BWIs need to exhibit responsiveness, ambition and accountability in a world no longer shaped disproportionately by a small western male elite. There was only one woman delegate at that original New Hampshire hilltop gathering.

The guns didn’t stop when the first Bretton Woods conference occurred and tragically they may not now as we reach out for ideas for our shared future. As in 1944, that shouldn’t stop us. But this time it’s a conversation for all of us.

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REA pulls out of Rightmove bid after four rejected offers

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REA pulls out of Rightmove bid after four rejected offers

Rightmove urged REA to submit “a best and final proposal”, but the Australian company declined to make a fifth offer.

The post REA pulls out of Rightmove bid after four rejected offers appeared first on Property Week.

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English ‘Gingerbread Town’ has pretty riverfront walks and popular Wetherspoons pub

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The English market town is home to plenty of Victorian buildings like the black and white clock tower (pictured)

DOWNHAM Market in Norfolk has been dubbed a “Gingerbread Town” – because of the colour of its buildings.

The moniker is because of the colour of the sandstone bricks, created by fusing local white brick and carrstone to make the gingerbread colour.

The English market town is home to plenty of Victorian buildings like the black and white clock tower (pictured)

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The English market town is home to plenty of Victorian buildings like the black and white clock tower (pictured)Credit: Alamy
The "Gingerbread Town" gets its nickname from the stone that was used to build its buildings

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The “Gingerbread Town” gets its nickname from the stone that was used to build its buildingsCredit: Alamy

Having been a town for over 2,000 years, it officially became a market town in 1046, making it one of the oldest of its kind in Norfolk.

Because of its long history, there are plenty of noteworthy buildings to visit including Downham Market Town Hall, which is one of the main buildings to have the gingerbread ‘slabs’.

Another example of the “Gingerbread brick” can be found on the corner of Priory Road and London Road.

Head to the Discover Downham Heritage Centre to find out about the town’s history as well.

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The tiny museum has a number of artefacts and interactive displays to look at as well as workshops including weaving and mosaic making.

Entry into Discover Downham Heritage Centre costs £4 per person.

Downham Market’s black and white clock tower is another key landmark in the town, which opened in 1878.

Meanwhile, The Fen Rivers Way Footpath also runs directly through the Norfolk town, which means day-trippers to Downham Market will be able to get into the countryside without a hitch.

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And if you need a drink at the end, the town has a much-loved Wetherspoons which locals have raved about.

The Whalebone is a Grade II Listed building, that dates back to the 18th century.

Inside the unspoilt UK village that’s one of the county’s best-kept secrets

Its name is a nod to the whaling trade that once flourished in the area, with its walls adorned with other historical memorabilia.

The pub has a 4/5 star rating on Google from more than 1,600 reviews.

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One person wrote: “Easily one of, if not, the best beer garden I’ve come across at a Wetherspoon pub and restaurant.”

Another person added: “It’s friendly and I love the way they have incorporated historical elements into the decorating of the Whalebone.”

Downham Market has been an official market town since 1046

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Downham Market has been an official market town since 1046Credit: Alamy
Despite having just 10,000 residents, the market town is home to a spoons boozer

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Despite having just 10,000 residents, the market town is home to a spoons boozerCredit: Alamy

There are several other pubs in Downham Market, including The Live and Let Live.

The Norfolk Cheese Co & Delicatessen is a highly-rated restaurant in the area too, with a 5/5 star rating on Google.

For holidaymakers who want to stay overnight, rooms at the Crown Hotel start from £83 per night.

The unassuming hotel was where the “Bread Riots” took place in 1816.

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King Charles I was also said to have hidden in an Inn in Downham Market in the 17th century.

The former king disguised as a clergyman in an attempt to evade capture by Parliamentary forces after the battle of Naseby.

Downham Market can be reached on a direct train from London King’s Cross, with services taking 100 minutes.

Best staycation locations for 2024

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Bristol

The arty harbour city was the top spot on the list and is bursting with culture and trendy cafes scattered along the River Avon.

A bubbling hub for creatives, Bristol is the birthplace of street artist Banksy, and you can admire some of his best early works on a free walking tour.

2. Hull

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The Humberside port city started to get recognition last year, and it has a thriving nightlife scene – if that’s something you’re after.

The old town is crawling with history and classy buildings, whose walls have many stories to tell and The Deep is a fascinating aquarium attraction.

3. Isles of Scilly

Just off the Cornish coast, it’s easy to see why the archipelago made it into the top three.

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Here, you can expect golden sandy beaches where you will be able to spot dolphins beyond the shoreline, as well as seafront pubs serving up hearty grub.

Another tiny village in the UK has been compared to a retro 1940s film set.

And an abandoned village in England only opens to tourists once a year.

A direct train service links Downham Market to London

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A direct train service links Downham Market to LondonCredit: Alamy

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