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The Metric That Preceded Every Bitcoin Rally Just Flashed Green: Is a BTC Surge Next?

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The Metric That Preceded Every Bitcoin Rally Just Flashed Green: Is a BTC Surge Next?

Bitcoin’s price climbed to a six-week peak earlier this morning, touching $76,000 after it broke above $70,000 last week. Despite retracing by nearly two grand since then, the asset is still up by $11,000 since its February 28 low when it plummeted immediately after the strikes in the Middle East began.

Now, though, there are more bullish hints ahead, as popular analyst Ali Martinez brought up a key signal that has led to all major BTC rallies in the past three years.

Funding Rates Turn Negative

The funding rates are periodic, small fee payments exchanged between traders holding short and long positions in perpetual futures contracts, keeping those prices aligned with the actual spot BTC price. When the rates are positive, this means that longs are paying shorts, and vice versa.

Although some consider positive rates to be bullish since BTC’s perp price is higher than the spot one as long positions dominate, Ali Martinez actually believes in the opposite and outlined historical examples to prove his theory. The analyst with almost 165,000 followers on X noted that BTC funding rates turning negative is “a signal that has preceded every major relief rally of the last 3 years.”

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“Market sentiment is currently at a ‘peak fear’ reset. History shows that when the crowd pays to short, the local bottom is usually in. We’ve seen this script play out with surgical precision:

  • Dec 2022: from $17,800 to $24.8k (+39%)

  • Mar 2023: from $20,000 to $30,700 (+53%)

  • Aug 2023: from $26,400 to $73,000 (+176%)

  • Sept 2024: from $58,000 to $104,500 (+80%)

  • Apr 2025: from $94,700 to $111,600 (+18%)

  • June 2025: from $107,000 to $124,700 (+17%)”

After bitcoin’s breakout past $70,000, the funding rates have reset to -0.004%. The analyst believes smart money is “watching for the inevitable short squeeze” and if history is to keep that 100% strike rate on this indicator, the current dip is “the coiled spring for the next leg up.”

Did the Rally Take Place Already?

Martinez’s original post came as bitcoin’s price traded around $71,000. In the following 24 hours, though, the asset climbed to $76,000, hitting its highest price tag since early February. That’s a 7% gain in a day. The question is whether this was already the rally that he talked about, a claim that could have some substance given the fact that the relief pumps after the funding rates turned negative in the past couple of examples have declined in terms of percentages.

In addition, BTC’s latest moves are mostly impacted by the developments in the Middle East, so if something big is to occur there, more volatility could ensue almost immediately. Nevertheless, the cryptocurrency has outperformed all other asset classes, including gold, since the war began, which could be another positive sign for its short-term price moves.

The post The Metric That Preceded Every Bitcoin Rally Just Flashed Green: Is a BTC Surge Next? appeared first on CryptoPotato.

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Crypto World

Polymarket Faces Nationwide Block Ordered by Argentina Court

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Polymarket Faces Nationwide Block Ordered by Argentina Court

A court in Argentina has ordered a nationwide block of the major crypto-based prediction market platform Polymarket over unauthorized gambling.

Argentina’s national communications and media regulator, Ente Nacional de Comunicaciones (ENACOM), received a court order to block access to the Polymarket website and its variants across the country, according to a ruling dated March 11.

The order was issued by the Buenos Aires Court of First Instance in Criminal, Contravention and Minor Offenses No. 31, which is investigating Polymarket under Argentina’s Criminal Code for allegedly offering gambling services without authorization.

The judge asked ENACOM to carry out the measure either directly or through internet service providers (ISPs) and to promptly inform the court or the specialized gambling prosecutor’s office if technical or other obstacles prevent full compliance.

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Buenos Aires regulator initiated the case

According to local media reports, the case was brought by the Buenos Aires City Lottery (LOTBA), the state-owned company that regulates gambling activities in the city.

After receiving a complaint from LOTBA about Polymarket’s alleged operation without authorization, prosecutor Juan Rozas, in charge of the City’s Specialized Gaming Prosecutor’s Office (FEJA), opened the investigation that led to the court order.

Authorities argued that Polymarket allowed users to place bets without sufficient identity and age verification, raising concerns that minors could access the platform.

“In practice, this meant that anyone — including children and adolescents — could access and start betting without any control,” the authorities reportedly said.

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Inflation bets deepen scrutiny

In addition to instructing ENACOM to block access to Polymarket, the court reportedly ordered Google and Apple to remove and restrict the platform’s mobile applications on Android and iOS throughout Argentina, including for existing users.

Social media reports indicate users are discussing workarounds such as VPNs, while observers note that the order comes from a Buenos Aires city court rather than the national government.

Source: ImpuestosyE (translated by Grok)

The move adds to earlier scrutiny of Polymarket after its inflation-related prediction markets closely mirrored official data from Argentina’s statistics agency, reigniting concerns about potential insider trading, according to local reports.

Polymarket did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Cointelegraph.

Related: CFTC chair backs blockchain-based prediction markets as ‘truth machines’

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Argentina’s action is the latest example of moves against prediction markets globally, with countries including the Netherlands, Hungary, Portugal and Ukraine taking similar steps to restrict access.

In Latin America, Colombia was among the first to take action, with its gambling regulator reportedly warning of Polymarket’s unauthorized operations in September 2025.

Magazine: How crypto laws changed in 2025 — and how they’ll change in 2026