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Bitcoin Could Win Big as Central Banks Prepare to Hold Rates

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Bitcoin Could Win Big as Central Banks Prepare to Hold Rates


Economists are penciling in UK inflation hitting 3% to 4% by end of 2026, complicating rate cuts for the foreseeable future.

Central banks in the US, UK, and the European Union are getting ready to announce their interest rate decisions, with markets expecting that there won’t be any changes across the board.

The policy paralysis has led an analyst to suggest that it could make Bitcoin (BTC) more appealing as a neutral store of value, as shown by its recent strength against the euro and US dollar.

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Central Banks Could Hold Steady As Inflation Risks Rise

The cluster of rate decisions, scheduled between March 18 and March 21, has put global markets on edge, with Lacie Zhang, a research analyst at Bitget Wallet, telling CryptoPotato that policymakers in the US, UK, and eurozone are likely to keep rates the same, given the recent surge in oil prices caused by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

According to her, this environment is already affecting crypto markets.

“With the BoE expected to hold at 3.75% and the ECB at 2%, both central banks are likely to maintain a cautious stance rather than pursue aggressive hikes or cuts,” she said.

The analyst added that this uncertainty has “supported BTC/EUR, with Bitcoin holding strong above €65,000,” which pointed to more institutions treating crypto as a way to protect themselves against fiat instability.

That expectation matches recent reporting from Reuters that the Bank of England is likely to keep its benchmark rate at 3.75% because inflation risks are rising due to higher energy prices caused by the conflict in the Middle East. Per the report, economists are estimating that by the end of 2026, UK inflation will reach 3% to 4%, therefore complicating any rate cuts in the near future.

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Europe is also showing similar caution, with a Bloomberg poll done between March 6 and March 11 finding that most economists think the European Central Bank will keep rates the same for an extended period, even though inflation risks are rising.

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Expectations are similar in the US, as data shared by journalist Sonali Basak on March 16 showed only one rate cut is priced in for 2026 ahead of this week’s Federal Reserve meeting.

Bitcoin Shows Resilience

The price action of Bitcoin reflects the prevailing macro backdrop. At the time of writing, the asset showed a 5% jump from a week ago to trade at about $74,000, per data from CoinGecko. It briefly hit $76,000 in early trading hours on Coinbase, which was its highest level since early February.

Meanwhile, on-chain data suggested a change in sentiment, with crypto analyst Darkfost saying that buyer activity has started to pick up again after a lot of selling in February, as trading volumes on major exchanges also went back up.

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Ultimately, Zhang believes that BTC’s performance during this period supports its positioning as a hedge.

“This ‘higher-for-longer’ stance may temper short-term risk-on sentiment, but it continues to support Bitcoin’s positioning as a non-sovereign store of value,” she explained.

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Crypto World

Arizona AG Files Charges against Kalshi over ‘Illegal Gambling‘

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Law, Arizona, Court, Crimes, Kalshi, Prediction Markets

Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes announced that her office filed gambling and related criminal charges against the companies behind prediction markets platform Kalshi.

In a Tuesday notice, Mayes said that the charges alleged that Kalshi operated an “illegal gambling business in Arizona without a license” and offered election wagering, in violation of state laws. Arizona authorities alleged that Kalshi’s prediction markets platform allowed state residents to bet on event contracts related to sports and state and federal elections. 

“Kalshi may brand itself as a ‘prediction market,’ but what it’s actually doing is running an illegal gambling operation and taking bets on Arizona elections, both of which violate Arizona law,” said Mayes. “No company gets to decide for itself which laws to follow.”

Law, Arizona, Court, Crimes, Kalshi, Prediction Markets
Source: Arizona Attorney General’s Office

According to the AG’s office, the charges followed Kalshi filing its own lawsuit against Arizona “preemptively in an attempt to avoid accountability under Arizona law.” State authorities have filed similar lawsuits against the companies of prediction market platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi.

Related: Kalshi suffers court loss in Ohio over sports betting lawsuit

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“Sadly, a state can file criminal charges on paper-thin arguments,” a Kalshi spokesperson told Cointelegraph. “States like Arizona want to individually regulate a nationwide financial exchange, and are trying every trick in the book to do it. As other courts have recognized and the CFTC affirms, Kalshi is subject to federal jurisdiction. It’s different from what sportsbooks and casinos offer their customers, and it should not be overseen by a patchwork of inconsistent state laws.”

Last week, an Ohio judge denied Kalshi’s request for a preliminary injunction in a similar case against state authorities, saying that the company had failed to show that the sports event contracts available on the platform were subject to the “exclusive jurisdiction” of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). However, in February, a federal judge in Tennessee blocked state authorities from enforcing gambling laws against Kalshi.

CFTC chair backs “exclusive authority” over prediction markets

Now the sole commissioner on the CFTC since acting chair Caroline Pham stepped down in December, Chair Michael Selig has publicly said that the federal regulator would defend prediction market platforms from state-level lawsuits.

Last week, Selig opened a proposed rule up to public comment on how the Commodity Exchange Act would apply to prediction markets, potentially changing how the agency approaches regulation and enforcement in the future.

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