Crypto World
SEC Clarifies How Federal Securities Laws Apply to Crypto Assets
The SEC has issued an official interpretation clarifying the application of federal securities laws to crypto assets and transactions, marking a significant step in regulatory clarity for the industry.
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission have jointly released a sweeping interpretive guidance that formally classifies major crypto assets and activities under federal securities law, a long-awaited move that ends years of regulatory ambiguity that industry participants described as “regulation by enforcement.”
The guidance, Release No. 33-11412, establishes a five-category taxonomy for crypto assets and clarifies the legal status of a range of on-chain activities including staking, mining, airdrops, and token wrapping.
A New Taxonomy
At the heart of the document is a classification system that divides crypto assets into five categories: digital commodities, digital collectibles, digital tools, stablecoins, and digital securities.
The most consequential determination for the market is the SEC’s explicit designation of 16 major tokens as digital commodities — assets that derive their value from the programmatic operation of a functional crypto network rather than from the managerial efforts of a centralized party. The list includes Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH), Solana (SOL), XRP, Cardano (ADA), Avalanche (AVAX), Chainlink (LINK), Dogecoin (DOGE), and eight others. As digital commodities, these assets are not securities and fall outside SEC jurisdiction, though they could be subject to CFTC oversight as commodities under the Commodity Exchange Act.
NFTs, Meme Coins, and Fan Tokens
The guidance also formally addresses NFTs and meme coins, classifying them as digital collectibles — assets with artistic, entertainment, social, or cultural value. Examples cited include CryptoPunks, Chromie Squiggles, and the meme coin WIF. The SEC notes that meme coins are typically acquired for non-investment purposes, their value driven by supply and demand rather than any issuer’s efforts, and are therefore not securities.
However, the agencies drew one notable bright line: fractionalizing a digital collectible — splitting a single NFT into multiple ownership interests — could constitute a securities offering, because it introduces elements of shared investment and reliance on managerial efforts.
Fan tokens received a nuanced treatment, with the SEC noting they have “hybrid characteristics” and could also be classified as digital tools.
Staking and Mining Get a Safe Harbor
One of the most practically significant sections of the guidance covers protocol staking and protocol mining, both of which the SEC determined are not securities transactions. The ruling covers solo staking, third-party custodial staking, and liquid staking arrangements — provided that staking providers do not guarantee fixed returns, do not use deposited assets for speculation or rehypothecation, and function as administrative agents rather than active managers of investor funds.
Liquid staking receipt tokens — the tokenized receipts issued to depositors in liquid staking protocols — are similarly deemed non-securities when they represent non-security underlying assets. This determination is significant for protocols like Lido and Rocket Pool, which issue tokens such as stETH and rETH.
Wrapped Tokens Also in the Clear
The guidance also provides clarity on token wrapping, concluding that redeemable wrapped tokens — one-for-one representations of an underlying crypto asset, such as wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC) — are not securities when the underlying asset is itself a non-security. The SEC specifies that wrapped token providers cannot use deposited assets for any purpose, including lending or trading, for this safe harbor to apply.
From “Regulation by Enforcement” to a Written Framework
The joint release comes after years of industry frustration with SEC enforcement actions against crypto firms, which many characterized as the agency’s primary tool for defining the regulatory perimeter. The guidance explicitly acknowledges those criticisms, noting that the SEC’s previous approach prompted complaints that it was pursuing actions rather than “developing a tailored regulatory framework that accommodates crypto asset innovation.”
The new framework grows out of work by the SEC’s Crypto Task Force, established in January 2025 under then-Acting Chairman Mark T. Uyeda, and was formalized as “Project Crypto” under Chairman Paul S. Atkins following a White House working group report on digital asset markets released in July 2025. On January 29, 2026, Atkins and CFTC Chairman Michael S. Selig announced the initiative would proceed jointly between both agencies.
The SEC emphasized that the guidance does not replace the Howey test — the Supreme Court precedent used to determine what constitutes an investment contract — but rather articulates how the agency interprets its application to crypto assets. Importantly, the guidance supersedes prior SEC staff statements on topics including meme coins, stablecoins, proof-of-work mining, and staking.
What Remains a Security
The document makes clear that assets structured as digital securities — tokenized stocks, bonds, or other traditional financial instruments recorded on a blockchain — remain fully subject to securities law regardless of their on-chain format. It also reaffirms that any non-security crypto asset can become subject to an investment contract if issuers make explicit promises of profit tied to their own managerial efforts — the classic token sale model — and that such investment contracts must be registered or exempt.
The agencies are soliciting public comment on the guidance and indicated the framework may be revised or expanded based on feedback.
This article was written with the assistance of AI workflows. All our stories are curated, edited and fact-checked by a human.
Ethereum price rallied to a six-week high of $2377.64 on Tuesday as institutional investors continue to accumulate the asset.
Summary
- Ethereum price climbed to a six-week high near $2,377 as institutional accumulation and continued spot ETF inflows supported bullish momentum.
- Tom Lee’s treasury firm Bitmine purchased nearly 61,000 ETH over the past week, lifting its total holdings to roughly 4.6 million ETH.
- A short squeeze above $2,300 triggered liquidations of clustered bearish positions, adding momentum to the rally.
According to data from crypto.news, Ethereum (ETH) price rose 6% to hit $2,377.64 on March 17, its highest level since the beginning of February, before settling around $2,334 at press time. It extends its positive run for the fourth straight day, clocking gains of 13% in the period.
A major catalyst driving its gains came from aggressive buying from institutional investors. Notably, Tom Lee’s Ethereum Treasury company, Bitmine, has been a driving force that bolstered market confidence. Notably, the firm purchased nearly 61,000 ETH in the past week, bringing its total ETH stash to nearly 4.6 million, or around 3.81% of the ETH token supply.
In its latest Ethereum acquisition, Lee noted that the treasury company has accelerated purchases as analysts at the firm believe that the asset’s price has nearly approached a local bottom amidst the ongoing crypto bloodbath triggered by macroeconomic and geopolitical concerns.
Ethereum, along with other major crypto assets, has so far outperformed U.S. tech stocks since the start of the U.S.-Iran war, which sent crude oil prices surging to multi-year highs, sparking concerns of runaway inflation.
Ethereum price has also been backed by back-to-back inflows in spot Ethereum ETFs, which have drawn in retail attention. Data from SoSoValue show that U.S. spot ETH ETFs have hit a 5-day inflow streak for the first time since mid January, drawing in $248 million in net inflows.
Meanwhile, today’s rally was also supported by a short squeeze after ETH broke past $2,300, where a large cluster of short positions was liquidated.
On the daily chart, Ethereum price has recently broken above the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, suggesting that bulls are regaining control of the market. It has also surpassed the $2,200 key resistance that had served as a formidable ceiling in at least two earlier attempts in March.
The Supertrend has flashed green for the first time since Jan. 20. Typically, when the Supertrend indicator turns green, an asset’s price enters a sustained bullish phase. Additionally, the 20-day and 50-day SMAs are approaching a bullish crossover, a sign that upward momentum is gathering strength.
For now, $2,594 acts as the next key resistance area bulls would likely aim to challenge. A break above that level would mark a major shift in market sentiment and could lay the groundwork for a retracement towards the $3,000 psychological milestone.
On the contrary, failure to hold the 50-day SMA at $2,118 could lead to a retest of lower support levels as sellers look to capitalize on any signs of weakness.
Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.
An ex-Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Department deputy was sentenced to prison for his role in extorting victims alongside a jailed crypto figure.
Summary
- Former LA County deputy Michael Coberg was sentenced to 63 months in prison and ordered to pay $127,000 for assisting crypto founder Adam Iza in multiple extortion schemes.
- Prosecutors said Coberg received at least $20,000 a month and used his position to help detain victims, force crypto transfers, and orchestrate a drug-related arrest setup.
Michael Coberg, who served as a deputy with the department, was handed a 63-month prison sentence for helping jailed crypto founder Adam Iza extort victims.
He has also been ordered to pay $127,000 in restitution.
According to prosecutors, Coberg received at least $20,000 a month for his services from Iza, who founded the crypto trading platform Zort and was known as “The Godfather.”
The incident dates back to October 2021, when Coberg was part of a team that picked up a man identified only as “L.A.” amid a financial dispute tied to Iza.
Coberg then brought L.A. to Iza’s house, where Iza recorded a video and forced him to transfer $127,000 to his bank account while Coberg stood watch.
Subsequently, Coberg was also accused of taking the victim to a firing range, where Iza held him at gunpoint and demanded the transfer of funds.
Prosecutors further noted that Coberg conspired to set up another victim, identified only as “R.C.,” in a drug-related arrest scheme.
Prosecutors also noted that R.C. had been targeted in coordination with Christopher Cadman, another former deputy who has also pleaded guilty in the case.
Coberg pleaded guilty in September to conspiracy to commit extortion and conspiracy against rights. Meanwhile, Iza is currently awaiting sentencing after pleading guilty last year to extorting multiple victims.
Cases involving crypto-related extortion, often referred to as wrench attacks, have been on the rise in recent years. As previously reported by crypto.news, a couple in western Paris was held hostage and forced to transfer roughly $980,000 in Bitcoin, underscoring how physical coercion is increasingly being used to bypass digital security measures.
Bitcoin (BTC) is closing in on its average entry price for US spot BTC exchange-traded fund (ETF) investors at $79,900. The narrowing gap between Bitcoin’s market price and the ETF holders’ cost basis coincides with onchain data that shows early signs of accelerated buying from investors.
Bitcoin ETF breakeven level nears key trend test
Bitcoin’s sustained price rally above $70,000 puts a key investor cohort back in focus. The ETF cost basis level acted as support in mid-2024, and a break above this level brings many ETF holders closer to breakeven.
The flow data adds further context to this shift. According to Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr., the ETF flows flipped positive after persistent outflows through mid-February.
The seven-day average has since moved to steady inflows, with daily flows peaking above 3,300 BTC on March 2. The ETF holdings have expanded to 1,291,618 BTC from 1,264,982 BTC, a 26,636 BTC increase over the past month.
Investors’ ETF cost basis also aligns with a key daily trend. A decisive move through this range marks a reclaim of the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA) on the daily chart for the first time since October 2025.
A move above the 100-day EMA signals a shift into a long-term uptrend, which also reinforces the bullish momentum. It also serves as a key trend filter where sustained price action above it often leads to continued upside gains.
Related: ‘Bitcoin Standard’ author explores reality where decentralized gold stopped WWI
Bitcoin buyers begin to outpace sellers
The order flow across major exchanges shows a gradual shift in market behavior. Crypto analyst Darkfost noted that the 30-day volume delta on Binance and Coinbase has turned positive after sustained selling pressure in February. Both the retail and institutional flows are now collectively skewing toward accumulation.
Bitcoin’s futures data reinforces this trend. Amr Taha noted that Binance’s cumulative volume delta (CVD) has rebounded by nearly $6 billion from its lows, tracking a rise in aggressive market buying since BTC traded near $63,000.
The metric remains below zero, though a significant portion of earlier sell pressure has now been absorbed during the recovery.
CryptoQuant data shows that short-term holder activity also aligns with this shift. The spent-output profit ratio (SOPR) metric, which shows whether coins are sold at a profit or loss, has moved back above 1, signaling that the selling pressure has eased and coins are now trading around or above their cost. Analyst miracleyoon said,
“While this capitulation was not as severe as the August 5, 2024, event (which saw SOPR approach ~0.9), the series of recent capitulation signals appears sufficient to have flushed out weak hands.”
The data suggests that Bitcoin remains on track to test the $80,000 level, but a move above the key breakeven zone may determine the strength and direction of the trend in the coming weeks.
Related: Bitcoin analysis sees $68K support as gold slips at key $5K level
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
Crypto World
Cari Network launches tokenized deposit platform on ZKsync’s Prividium for US regional banks: Cari Network
Cari Network is building a bank-governed tokenized deposit platform on ZKsync’s Prividium stack, offering US regional lenders an onchain payments rail with stablecoin-like speed and transferability.
Cari Network has selected ZKsync’s Prividium stack to build a bank-governed tokenized deposit platform aimed at US regional banks. The platform will enable regional lenders to offer customers tokenized deposits that function like stablecoins in terms of speed and transferability, while retaining the benefits of traditional banking and compliance.
Prividium is purpose-built for institutions requiring privacy, compliance, and full data control, offering user-level privacy, compliance tools, cross-chain connectivity, and Ethereum-grade security. The move reflects growing interest from traditional financial institutions in integrating blockchain-based payment rails and tokenized assets into their existing services.
Sources: ZKsync Prividium | Banking Exchange
This article was generated automatically by The Defiant’s AI news system from publicly available sources.
Court Orders Remedial Reflex
In Buenos Aires, a court directed regulators to impose tight controls of access. The telecom regulator ENACOM also liaised with the internet companies to shut down the site. Google and Apple were also asked to take the app out of their stores. The reason why these actions are taken is to restrict access to the users in the country.
This has caused regulators to tighten their belts due to apprehension caused by activity associated with inflation data. It was reported that the platform made predictions of Argentina’s inflation rate in February before it was officially released. Besides, authorities reported that the prediction was altered minutes before publishing. This chain of events triggered the need to further research how the platform functions.
Researchers came to the conclusion that the platform served as a web-based betting platform. Regulators also said it enabled the users to participate in wagering without licenses. Also regulators were worried about access by minors. These results resulted in even tougher steps to be taken against the platform.
Latin America’s Crackdown Continues
The move is in line with other actions taken by Colombia. Polymarket was later blocked in the country due to similar complaints raised against unlicensed gambling services. Therefore, Argentina became the second country to ban the platform in the region. Such a trend underscores the developing regional integration in the area of regulatory enforcement.
Regulatory examination does not just end at Latin America; it extends to other markets. It has been reported that websites like Kalshi have been involved in court cases in the United States due to allegations of unregulated betting services. It has also been reported that unpaid wagers have been involved in cases of dispute that are associated with geopolitical activities. Regulators and legal authorities have paid more attention to such developments.
Polymarket has also addressed criticism by eliminating some of the markets. Additionally, the site has recently shut down a market for nuclear risk forecasts after being pressured by the publicity. More so, the shutdown was done through the high geopolitical tensions. This is in response to efforts to deal with concerns as the regulatory pressure persists. Argentina has imposed a nationwide ban on Polymarket following the discovery of unlicensed betting operations and a ban on platforms. The relocation is in line with the larger international desire to control prediction market sites and restrict illegal gambling solutions.
Two Democratic lawmakers in the US Congress have introduced legislation in response to “government corruption” over bets on prediction markets platforms.
In a Tuesday announcement, Texas Representative Greg Casar and Connecticut Senator Chris Murphy said they had introduced the Banning Event Trading on Sensitive Operations and Federal Functions (BETS OFF) Act after several Polymarket accounts made “highly unusual bets” that a war between the US and Israel against Iran would begin.
Murphy said on March 4 that it was likely that people with “inside information” of US President Donald Trump’s plan to bomb Iran had made the bets.
“We shouldn’t live in a country where someone sitting in the situation room making decisions about whether to invade or to bomb, decisions about war and peace, life and death, that those decisions could be driven by the fact that they have hundreds of thousands of dollars riding on the decision,” said Casar.
The bill is the latest twist in US lawmakers’ efforts to crack down on prediction market platforms and accounts allegedly using insider information to profit from government actions. Last week, California Senator Adam Schiff introduced the DEATH BETS Act to prevent prediction markets platforms from listing events contracts related to war, terrorism, assassination and individual deaths.
Related: Arizona AG files charges against Kalshi over ‘illegal gambling‘
Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi offer bets on a variety of outcomes, including sporting events and US politics. However, users betting on the specifics of the US-Israel conflict with Iran have ignited controversy in many areas of government. On Monday, a military correspondent with the Times of Israel said that he had received death threats over his report of the date when an Iranian missile had struck Israel, all “in order to resolve a prediction on Polymarket.”
War-related bets still live on Polymarket
As of Tuesday, Polymarket still offered users the opportunity to place bets on the outcomes of several potential decisions in the US-Israel conflict against Iran, including on whether the US would send ground forces into the country, when a ceasefire might happen, and changes to Iranian leadership.
“The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society,” said Polymarket in a note on Middle East markets. “That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and [X, formerly Twitter] could not.”
Kalshi, in contrast, offered event contracts related to the Iranian conflict but not on specific military actions, such as if the country might reach a nuclear deal with the US and whether Trump or other elected officials might visit Iran.
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Crypto World
Ripple to expand in Brazil with custody, payments, and brokerage services ahead of central bank approval push: Ripple
Ripple is adding custody, payments, and brokerage tools for digital asset management in Brazil as it prepares to seek regulatory approval from the country’s central bank.
Ripple is expanding its services in Brazil by adding custody, payments, and brokerage tools for digital asset management and tokenization. The blockchain firm plans to apply for regulatory approval from Brazil’s central bank to support these new offerings, marking a significant expansion of its presence in the Latin American market.
The move builds on Ripple’s earlier partnership with Mercado Bitcoin, Brazil’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, which launched Ripple Payments as the first customer to utilize the firm’s managed end-to-end payments solution. This expansion reflects Ripple’s broader strategy to establish regulated operations across key markets while enabling faster and more efficient cross-border payment infrastructure.
Sources: Ripple Press
This article was generated automatically by The Defiant’s AI news system from publicly available sources.
Justin Sun-owned Poloniex has announced fee-free trading for any user who enrols in its “Poloniex Super” membership, which currently offers 30 days’ worth of fee-free “spot, margin, and futures trading.”
Poloniex has yet to announce what this membership will cost once the 30-day period has elapsed, though it does mention that “[a]fter the trial period ends, you will be automatically enrolled in the basic Super plan by default.”
This product announcement has led users to ask how Poloniex will make money without fees. Sun quickly explained that Poloniex has no need to make more money because “we already made enough from the bitcoin (BTC) we bought in 2012.”
Poloniex was founded in 2014 and therefore couldn’t possibly purchase any BTC in 2012, so presumably Sun is referring to BTC he purchased.
This statement that Poloniex can continue to operate based only on these profits brings to the forefront concerns about how Poloniex has managed the BTC in its reserves.
In 2020 Poloniex offered a new product, which it described at different times as “BTC on TRON” and “BTCTRON.”
This initial announcement described BTCTRON as “a type of wrapped BTC token that exists on the TRON blockchain.”
Poloniex’s Help Center provides us the contract address for this token, TN3W4H6rK2ce4vX9YnFQHwKENnHjoxb3m9.
Reviewing this contract address reveals that this token currently has a circulating supply of 17,545 BTC, worth approximately $1.3 billion.
Disturbingly, Poloniex’s so-called “proof of reserves” claims that Poloniex has a balance of only 11,090 BTC in its entire reserves and 11,082 of those are “User Balance.”
This is insufficient to reserve this tokenized BTC product.
Protos has previously repeatedly reached out to Poloniex during our past reporting on this product, and it has never been willing to provide the addresses that hold the BTC for this tokenized product.
We attempted to reach out to Poloniex again; however, it didn’t provide these addresses before publication.
Read more: FTX estate says Justin Sun still owes it millions
Increasing the concern about this product is how deeply it has been integrated into another Sun-owned exchange, HTX.
At HTX, typically there is more of this mysterious BTCTRON product, which provides no transparency, than real BTC.
As of the most recent HTX snapshot, dated March 1, there were a total of 21,362 BTC on HTX. BTCTRON accounted for 10,291 of those.
There are also an additional 1,212 BTC that are in the form of Sun-advised Wrapped Bitcoin.
What this means, taken as a whole, is that Poloniex will not disclose where the $1.3 billion in BTC that is supposed to collateralize this product is located.
Yet despite that fact, HTX is willing to make it a massive portion of its reserves, all while Sun claims that Poloniex can afford to offer “fee-free” trading because of the appreciation in the price of bitcoin.
Perhaps instead of making grandiose claims about the value of his BTC, Sun should instead work on solving the apparent BTC shortfall at the exchanges he owns.
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In one of its first actions since signing a memorandum of understanding with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) said it would interpret how “non-security crypto assets” fall under federal securities laws.
In a Tuesday notice, the SEC said its interpretation of how to address crypto assets would serve as an “important bridge” as lawmakers in the US Congress consider market structure legislation which will codify how financial regulators oversee digital assets.
The commission said the interpretation would provide a “coherent token taxonomy for digital commodities, digital collectibles, digital tools, stablecoins, and digital securities,” address how a “non-security crypto asset” may or may not be considered an investment contract under the SEC’s purview, and clarify federal securities laws on “airdrops, protocol mining, protocol staking, and the wrapping of a non-security crypto asset.”
“This is what regulatory agencies are supposed to do: draw clear lines in clear terms,” said SEC Chair Paul Atkins. “It also acknowledges what the former administration refused to recognize -– that most crypto assets are not themselves securities. And it reflects the reality that investment contracts can come to an end.”
According to Atkins’ prepared remarks for the DC Blockchain Summit on Tuesday, “only one crypto asset class remains subject to the securities laws” under the interpretation, and those were “traditional securities that are tokenized.” The commission called on market participants to review the interpretation to “better understand the regulatory jurisdiction between the SEC and CFTC” on cryptocurrencies.
Related: SEC, CFTC sign memo to regulate crypto, other markets in harmony
The SEC notice came as lawmakers in the US Senate continue to negotiate terms under which they may reach an agreement on a digital asset market structure bill. The legislation is expected to give the CFTC more authority in overseeing cryptocurrencies.
Shakeup in SEC enforcement leadership draws criticism
On Monday, the SEC announced that its enforcement division director, Margaret Ryan, resigned from the agency. Its principal deputy director, Sam Waldon, was named as acting enforcement director.
In response to Ryan’s departure, former SEC official John Reed Stark said “not a single person on this planet” believed the commission’s claims that the enforcement director prioritized investor protection and “renewed focus on holding individual wrongdoers accountable” at the agency.
“The SEC has abandoned its identity,” said Stark on Monday. “It has transformed from the cop on Wall Street’s beat into something far more troubling, a regulatory body that functions less like a law enforcement agency and more like a concierge service for the largest financial players in the country.”
A 19-year veteran of the regulator, Stark was founder and chief of the SEC’s Office of Internet Enforcement, according to his LinkedIn profile.
Atkins, along with SEC Commissioners Mark Uyeda and Hester Peirce — all Republicans — remain the only three leaders at the agency on a panel intended to consist of a bipartisan group of five members. As of Tuesday, US President Donald Trump had not announced any plans to nominate other commissioners to the SEC or CFTC, which had only one Senate-confirmed member.
Magazine: Clarity Act risks repeat of Europe’s mistakes, crypto lawyer warns
Institutional holders quietly added roughly 26,600 BTC to ETF positions during the recent recovery, a 2% increase in total holdings.
Bitcoin (BTC) touched $76,000 on March 17 to register its highest price level since early February, as institutional investors continued to put money into U.S. spot ETFs, extending a multi-day recovery streak coming after heavy outflows in February.
However, the rebound in demand is running into a key constraint, according to analyst Axel Adler Jr., with ETF investors still sitting on an average unrealized loss of $5,174, which he says could affect price action around the $80,000 mark.
ETF Flows Recover, But the $79,962 Realized Price Looms
In his latest market update, Adler said that spot Bitcoin ETF flows have gone through what he called a “full cycle” over the past month, going from capitulation in mid-February to a steady recovery in the last few weeks. According to him, from February 15 to 24, the seven-day average of ETF net flows stayed negative, hitting a low of about -1,883 BTC per day on February 18.
However, around February 25, the trend changed, with flows turning positive and peaking at about +3,387 BTC per day on March 2. Adler currently puts the seven-day average at around +1,472 BTC per day, with liquidity conditions also getting better. During the same period, the total number of ETF holdings rose by about 26,600 BTC, which is a little over 2%.
The analyst sees this change as a return of institutional demand after the earlier outflows. He does, however, point out that this demand is below a clearly defined level of resistance.
That level is the realized price for the ETF cohort, which Adler mapped at $79,962, an amount showing the average cost of buying an ETF for all investors. And with BTC trading just above $74,000 after earlier hitting a six-week high, it means the group still has an overall paper loss of over $5,000.
Adler described the gap as one of the most important structural features of the current market. This is because, as Bitcoin gets closer to the realized price, more investors will get closer to breaking even, which can make it more likely for them to sell. For that reason, the market technician says that the $80,000 region is a place where upward movement may slow down unless demand is strong enough to take in the potential extra supply.
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Market to Test Resistance Condition
At the time of writing, data from CoinGecko showed BTC up over 5% in the last 7 days and the same across 30 days. However, the uptick was almost 9% over two weeks, although performance still lagged year-on-year, with the asset shedding nearly 11% from its value in that time, keeping it over 41% below its all-time high.
For now, Adler is watching the $80,000 level as the key battleground.
“A spot close above $79,962 combined with sustained ETF net inflow above +2,000 BTC per day would signal a regime change,” he wrote in his analysis.
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