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Bitcoin ETF Holders Are $5K Underwater Even as Institutional Demand Returns

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Bitcoin ETF Holders Are $5K Underwater Even as Institutional Demand Returns


Institutional holders quietly added roughly 26,600 BTC to ETF positions during the recent recovery, a 2% increase in total holdings.

Bitcoin (BTC) touched $76,000 on March 17 to register its highest price level since early February, as institutional investors continued to put money into U.S. spot ETFs, extending a multi-day recovery streak coming after heavy outflows in February.

However, the rebound in demand is running into a key constraint, according to analyst Axel Adler Jr., with ETF investors still sitting on an average unrealized loss of $5,174, which he says could affect price action around the $80,000 mark.

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ETF Flows Recover, But the $79,962 Realized Price Looms

In his latest market update, Adler said that spot Bitcoin ETF flows have gone through what he called a “full cycle” over the past month, going from capitulation in mid-February to a steady recovery in the last few weeks. According to him, from February 15 to 24, the seven-day average of ETF net flows stayed negative, hitting a low of about -1,883 BTC per day on February 18.

However, around February 25, the trend changed, with flows turning positive and peaking at about +3,387 BTC per day on March 2. Adler currently puts the seven-day average at around +1,472 BTC per day, with liquidity conditions also getting better. During the same period, the total number of ETF holdings rose by about 26,600 BTC, which is a little over 2%.

The analyst sees this change as a return of institutional demand after the earlier outflows. He does, however, point out that this demand is below a clearly defined level of resistance.

That level is the realized price for the ETF cohort, which Adler mapped at $79,962, an amount showing the average cost of buying an ETF for all investors. And with BTC trading just above $74,000 after earlier hitting a six-week high, it means the group still has an overall paper loss of over $5,000.

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Adler described the gap as one of the most important structural features of the current market. This is because, as Bitcoin gets closer to the realized price, more investors will get closer to breaking even, which can make it more likely for them to sell. For that reason, the market technician says that the $80,000 region is a place where upward movement may slow down unless demand is strong enough to take in the potential extra supply.

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Market to Test Resistance Condition

At the time of writing, data from CoinGecko showed BTC up over 5% in the last 7 days and the same across 30 days. However, the uptick was almost 9% over two weeks, although performance still lagged year-on-year, with the asset shedding nearly 11% from its value in that time, keeping it over 41% below its all-time high.

For now, Adler is watching the $80,000 level as the key battleground.

“A spot close above $79,962 combined with sustained ETF net inflow above +2,000 BTC per day would signal a regime change,” he wrote in his analysis.

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Crypto World

Bitcoin Coils Below Six-Week Highs as Gold Stays Vulnerable at $5,000

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Bitcoin Coils Below Six-Week Highs as Gold Stays Vulnerable at $5,000

Bitcoin consolidated recent gains in the face of blanket skepticism over its rebound, while gold threatened to give up $5,000 support.

Bitcoin (BTC) circled $74,000 after Tuesday’s Wall Street open as skepticism increased over BTC price strength.

Key points:

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  • Bitcoin stalls after a trip to $76,000, with short-term targets including a retreat to $68,000.

  • Traders stand by the long-term bear market thesis for BTC/USD.

  • Gold continues to show weakness, risking the loss of $5,000 per ounce support.

Trader warns against “hyping up” BTC price move

Data from TradingView showed cooling BTC price volatility after a run to new six-week highs of $76,000 to start the daily candle.

BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

This proved unsustainable as heavy resistance sent BTC/USD lower, leading to concerns of a fakeout for Telegram channel Technical Crypto Analyst.

“Bitcoin is trending upward inside a rising channel and approaching the $74K–$79K resistance zone; while structure remains bullish above the trendline, a rejection from current levels could trigger a pullback toward the $68K support area,” it wrote on the day.

BTC/USDT perpetual contract four-hour chart. Source: Technical Crypto Analyst on Telegram

Traders stayed wary, doubling down on existing doubts about the fate of Bitcoin’s relief rally.

“Still nothing on HTF that suggests the bear market has bottomed. No divs, no volume at lows, no reversal pattern, etc,” trader Roman wrote in his latest analysis on X, referring to higher time frames.

Roman argued that market participants were “hyping up” a comparatively modest uptick in price, and that history demanded a longer bear market.

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BTC/USDT one-week chart. Source: Roman/X

On the latter point, trader Jelle agreed, pointing to the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level as a key price point.

“Every bear market has been shallower than the one before it – but all of them have happened well below the 0.618 retracement, after months of boring sideways PA,” he told X followers. 

“Even if we don’t get the usual drawdown, I’m pretty sure the boredom chop is coming. Patience.”

BTC/USD chart with Fibonacci retracement level. Source: Jelle/X

Analyst eyes Bitcoin “outperformance” versus gold

Macro conditions were cooler compared to the start of the week. US stocks continued a modest rebound, while WTI crude oil remained below the $100 per barrel mark.

Related: Bitcoin sparks ‘bull trap’ warning after BTC price rejects at $76K

Gold, however, teased a breakdown from $5,000 support, retesting that level for the third consecutive day.

XAU/USD four-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Calls for Bitcoin to steal the spotlight from the precious metal thus grew louder.

“Stand by for the outperformance of the decade,” crypto analyst James Easton commented on the weekly BTC/XAU chart.

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BTC/XAU one-week chart. Source: James Easton/X