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Bitcoin price loses $74K support ahead of Fed rate decision, can it recover?

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Bitcoin price has broken out of an ascending triangle pattern on the daily chart.

Bitcoin price fell back under the $74,000 support level after three straight days of gains as investors remained cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s rate cut decision scheduled for later today.

Summary

  • Bitcoin price slipped below $74,000 after a three-day rally, as traders booked profits ahead of the Federal Reserve’s rate decision.
  • Markets expect the Fed to hold rates at 3.50% to 3.75%, with CME FedWatch showing over 99% probability of no rate cut.
  • Bullish technical signals persist, with a triangle breakout and ETF inflows supporting upside, while $76,000 remains key resistance.

After rallying over 7% and touching nearly $76,000 on Tuesday, Bitcoin (BTC) gave up part of its gains, dropping back below the $74,000 support level on Wednesday. Trading at $73,836, the bellwether remains 2.7% lower than its local peak and 24% below its year-to-date high.

Bitcoin price fell as investors booked profits from its recent run before entering wait-and-watch mode ahead of the Federal Reserve’s rate cut decision scheduled to be revealed at 2:30 P.M. UTC today.

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According to market expectations, the Federal Reserve will likely hold interest rates at 3.50% to 3.75%. This stance is likely due to a surge in inflation from a spike in oil prices, which climbed over $100 per barrel amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran war in the Middle East. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the odds of the Fed holding the interest rate steady are as high as 98.9%. 

Risk assets such as Bitcoin tend to benefit when the Fed cuts interest rates, while they often face pressure when the Federal Reserve decides to hold or increase them to combat sticky inflation.

However, it should be noted that the Fed’s interest rate decision could have already been priced in, and the market could just be taking a breather before resuming its broader trend, as seen during rallies in times of macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty. 

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For Bitcoin, a key underlying catalyst that could support a potential rebound comes from the continued inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs. Data from SoSoValue show that the 12 spot BTC ETFs have extended their inflow streak to seven consecutive days, attracting nearly $1.17 billion from institutional investors.

On the daily chart, Bitcoin price has confirmed a breakout from the upper side of a symmetrical triangle pattern, a bullish continuation pattern in technical analysis.

Bitcoin price has broken out of an ascending triangle pattern on the daily chart.
Bitcoin price has broken out of an ascending triangle pattern on the daily chart — March 18 | Source: crypto.news

Bitcoin price has also moved above the Supertrend line, which has flipped green, a sign that the short-term momentum is turning positive.

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index reading has moved higher to 59 while still having room for more gains before hitting overbought levels at 70, where buying pressure often reaches exhaustion. 

For now, traders would be keeping an eye on $76,000, the level BTC failed to breach during its run on Tuesday. A break above the threshold could clear the way to test the $80,000 psychological milestone.

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On the contrary, a drop below $73,000 could lead to a shift in sentiment and a deeper retest of support levels near $71,000.

Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.

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Crypto World

Bitcoin Depot Struggles With Regulatory Pressure and Weak 2026 Outlook

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Bitcoin Depot Struggles With Regulatory Pressure and Weak 2026 Outlook

Bitcoin Depot, a publicly traded cryptocurrency ATM provider, is facing mounting regulatory pressure in the US amid a steep stock decline and a weak revenue outlook.

The Connecticut Banking Commissioner, through the Consumer Credit Division, issued a temporary cease-and-desist order against Bitcoin Depot on March 9, summarily suspending its money transmission license in the state.

The order cites multiple alleged violations of the Connecticut Money Transmission Act, including failure to maintain minimum net worth, excessive fees and incomplete refunds to consumers who fell victim to scams.

The company lowered its 2026 revenue outlook in its fourth-quarter 2025 and full-year financial results released on Monday. It reported a 56% year-to-date stock decline and staff layoffs. Bitcoin Depot is one of the largest kiosk operators in the US. Its earnings release says it had more than 8,400 kiosk locations as of year-end 2025.

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Revenue outlook darkens for 2026

The company reported full-year 2025 revenue of $615 million, up 7% from 2024, though net income fell to $5.1 million from $7.8 million.

Q4 revenue dropped to $116 million from $136.8 million a year earlier, driven by newly enacted state regulations and enhanced compliance measures, the company said.

Bitcoin Depot also warned of a weaker revenue outlook for 2026, citing ongoing regulatory changes and compliance requirements that could reduce transaction volumes:

“The Company expects revenue for the core business in 2026 to be down in the range of 30% to 40%. This estimate reflects the uncertainty presented by the dynamic regulatory environment and enhanced compliance standards.”

In a separate March 11 filing, Bitcoin Depot disclosed that chief operating officer Elizabeth Simer had resigned. The company did not give a reason.

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Bitcoin Depot faces actions in multiple states

Connecticut’s cease‑and‑desist order comes as Bitcoin Depot already faces enforcement actions in other states, including a Massachusetts Attorney General lawsuit in February, which alleged facilitation of crypto scams.

Bitcoin Depot was also sued in Iowa in February 2025, when Attorney General Brenna Bird accused the company and CoinFlip of failing to protect consumers from crypto ATM scams.

Related: Minnesota to weigh ban on crypto kiosks after scam reports

In January, Bitcoin Depot entered a $1.9 million consent agreement with the Bureau of Consumer Credit Protection in Maine to compensate consumers scammed via its Bitcoin kiosks and comply with state licensing rules.

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Bitcoin Depot (BTM) price chart in the past year. Source: TradingView

Bitcoin Depot’s shares (BTM) have declined since mid-2025, losing 91% of their value since hitting $45.4 in June. The stock has tumbled 56% year-to-date, closing at $4.06 on Tuesday, according to TradingView.

Cointelegraph contacted Bitcoin Depot for comment regarding the regulatory actions, but had not received a response by publication.

Magazine: How crypto laws changed in 2025 — and how they’ll change in 2026