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BTC remains down sharply as Fed stays on hold

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BTC remains down sharply as Fed stays on hold

The Federal Reserve held its benchmark fed funds rate range steady at 3.50%-3.75% on Wednesday, as expected.

Down nearly 4% ahead of the anticipated decision following a surge in oil prices and poor inflation data earlier on Wednesday, bitcoin remained sharply lower at $71,600 in the moments following the news.

U.S. stocks remain lower for the day, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 each down by 0.55%. The 10-year Treasury yield remains higher by a tick at 4.21%.

“The implications of developments in the Middle East for the U.S. economy are uncertain,” said the central bank in its accompanying statement.

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The vote to hold policy steady was 11-1, with Stephen Miran voting to trim rates by 25 basis points.

The Fed also updated its economic projections. Of particular note was a sizable rise in inflation expectations — now seen at 2.7% for 2026 versus 2.4% previously. Inflation, however, is expected to drop to 2.2% in 2027 against 2.1% projected earlier.

The so-called “dot plot” continues to show expectations for one 25-basis-point rate cut in 2026 and one more in 2027.

The U.S. central bank must balance what appears to be a slowing employment market with inflation that remains well above its 2% target. Adding to that is the March attack against Iran, which has sent the price of oil to nearly $100 per barrel versus less than $60 earlier this year.

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Investors will now turn their attention to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s post-meeting press conference at 2:30 pm ET for further insight into the central bank’s outlook.

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Crypto World

FOMC Leaves Interest Rates Steady at March Meeting

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Federal Reserve, Interest Rate

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced on Wednesday that it would hold the Federal Funds rate steady at 3.5-3.75%, as it monitors macroeconomic impacts from the ongoing war in the Middle East.

Economic activity has expanded at a “solid pace,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said, adding that consumer spending remains “resilient,” while business investment continued to grow. 

However, the housing sector remains weak, and the labor market shows signs of softening, Powell said, while inflation remains “somewhat elevated” above the Fed’s 2% target.

Federal Reserve, Interest Rate
Jerome Powell addresses reporters following the March 2025 FOMC meeting. Source: Federal Reserve

This higher inflation and weak labor market is creating a tension between the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate of maximizing employment and stabilizing prices, Powell Said. He added that the war in the Middle East has further clouded the economic outlook. He said:

“The implications of events in the Middle East for the US economy are uncertain in the near term. Higher energy prices will push up overall inflation, but it is too soon to know the scope and duration of the potential effects on the economy.”

Interest rate policy impacts risk asset markets like cryptocurrencies and equities, with lower rates stimulating asset prices and higher rates acting as a restrictive force on risk asset prices, as investment capital flows from riskier asset classes to government bonds. 

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Related: Fed holds rates amid higher inflation outlook: Bitcoin bounces to $72K

Traders see no chance of rate cuts, while analysts say liquidity will flow

97% of market participants forecast no change in interest rates at the April 2026 FOMC meeting. While 3% forecast a rate hike of 25 basis points (BPS), according to data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME).

A rate hike of 25 basis points would spike the Federal Funds Rate to a range between 3.75% and 4.00%.

Federal Reserve, Interest Rate
Interest rate target probabilities for the April 2026 FOMC meeting. Source: CME Group

Arthur Hayes, a market analyst and co-founder of the BitMEX crypto exchange, said he is waiting for the Fed to slash rates before he resumes buying Bitcoin (BTC). 

Hayes also said that the ongoing war between the US and Iran would likely cause the Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy to finance the war

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Others, like macroeconomist Lyn Alden, say that the Federal Reserve has entered a “gradual print” phase in which new money is steadily being created, slowly raising up all asset prices.

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