Bitcoin ($BTC) continues to attract interest from institutional investors, nation states, and now US states. A new all-time high of just over $108,000 may not last long, with buying likely to ramp up ahead of Trump’s inauguration in January.
Ohio, Pennsylvania, and other states, introduce Bitcoin legislation
Along with the institutions and the nation states, some of the states within the US are also looking at the practicalities of introducing strategic Bitcoin reserves. The latest state to consider such a move is Ohio. It proposes the establishment of a Bitcoin reserve fund in order to hedge against the debasement in the US dollar.
Another state with similar interests is Pennsylvania, which recently introduced the Pennsylvania Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Act. This would allow its state treasury to invest up to 10% of its funds into Bitcoin.
Texas, Florida, and others are preparing legislation which is likely to follow a similar path. Both Texas and Florida are big states with huge budgets that are bigger than those of most countries.
Could Europe go in the same direction?
European MP Sarah Knafo recently called for a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve for the European Union. Her statement ‘No to CBDC, yes to Bitcoin’ is a call to action against the “totalitarian temptations” of what would be a government-controlled currency as opposed to a decentralised Bitcoin.
She believes that Bitcoin would act as a hedge against fiscal mismanagement and government overreach, and sees Bitcoin as financial sovereignty for European citizens.
$BTC correction after a week of uptrend
Source: TradingView
After a week of uptrend, the $BTC price has finally begun some kind of correction. The price hit the top of the ascending channel and has been rejected. It now remains to see how far down the price might go. It has already touched the 0.382 Fibonacci, so it might even bounce here.
Generally, it might be expected that a deeper correction would take place, and that the price would come down to the bottom of the channel, hitting the 0.618 or the 0.786, which are reasonably strong support levels.
Also, the ascending channel chart pattern would statistically see a breakdown rather than a break up out of the pattern. However, this is Bitcoin, and Bitcoin in what could be the final parabolic stage of the bull run. Therefore, normal expectations probably go out of the window.
When will this Bitcoin bull market end?
Source: TradingView
Much is spoken about the length of this bull market. Some say that it will follow what is the current 4-year cycle, which is what Bitcoin has done so far in its history. If this is the case, there is still around a year left in the cycle, which would end in Q4 of 2025.
However, some are saying that the bull market could be much shorter, and that the top could come in either Q1 or Q2 of 2025. If this is the case, the price probably has time to make one more reasonable correction. This could take $BTC back to the 0.382 Fibonacci at $85,000, or even the 0.618 Fibonacci at around $71,000.
The possibility of a double top would then come into play, with the second top being higher, just as it was in the 2021 bull market. This second top could also hit the ascending trendline and get that final rejection that would bring $BTC down into the bear market.
This is all conjecture, and with nation states potentially about to get into a buying race, the 4-year cycle might appear to be the more probable scenario.
Whichever scenario we get, and Bitcoin might have its own improbable move up its sleeve, things are going to be incredibly exciting as we move into 2025.
Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
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