Crypto World
Oil Prices Decrease following the US-Iran war after the killing of Larijani
Tehran Sends Strong Signals in the Face of Escalation
According to the statements made by the Iranian authorities, the political and military organization of the country is stable enough to lose the leadership. According to Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, the institutions were operating normally. Besides, authorities reiterated that personal losses cannot undermine the system at large. These utterances are meant to show strength as the war spreads.
The oil prices shifted downwards with the escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The prices of crude fell by over 3 percent and closed at around 92 in the last trade period. Nevertheless, markets responded to a stable supply situation and not to conflict risks. None of the significant disturbances in production or shipping of oil constrained price pressure.
The activity of shipping via the Strait of Hormuz was maintained at a moderate rate, which sustained a stable supply globally. Further, Iran permitted some commercial ships to pass through the important passage. Furthermore, Iraq and Kurdish leaders started again with oil exports through the Ceyhan port of Turkey. The situation created an addition to the supply chain in the international markets and lessened the apprehensions concerning scarcity.
Sanctions relief pushes in the wrong direction
The United States gave a temporary lift on sanctions imposed on the Russian oil shipments stuck at sea. This move gave it the opportunity to supply more supply to the international markets in the short run. As a result, the availability of crude was elevated, weighing on prices even though conflict risks were still there. Even a minor addition of supply, observed by analysts, could have an impact on prices in the existing circumstances.
Geopolitical risks are still pitted against stable supply flows by energy markets. Although tensions are strong, traders are focusing on real disruption of the situation as opposed to possible threats. Also, the existent equilibrium between the supply and demand has curbed price spikes. The oil markets are still sensitive to the developments as the conflict goes on.
S&P Dow Jones Indices has licensed its S&P 500 Index to Trade[XYZ] for the launch of a perpetual futures contract on Hyperliquid, in what the company described as the first officially licensed onchain product offering continuous, leveraged exposure to the index for eligible non-US users.
According to Wednesday’s announcement, contract allows eligible non-US traders to take long or short positions on the index without an expiry date, with markets operating continuously outside traditional exchange hours using official index data from S&P Dow Jones Indices.
The contract also brings equity index exposure onto Hyperliquid, extending the use of perpetual derivatives beyond cryptocurrencies into traditional financial benchmarks.
Trade[XYZ] said its onchain markets have processed more than $100 billion in volume since October 2025, with an annualized run rate topping $600 billion.
The move comes after the index maker teamed with Centrifuge in July to bring the S&P 500 onchain through proof-of-index infrastructure and the launch of a tokenized index fund built on blockchain-based systems.
Related: Perp DEXs almost triple volume in 2025 as onchain derivatives mature
Crypto exchanges expand perpetual trading into traditional assets
Efforts to bring traditional financial markets into crypto are taking varied forms, including tokenized assets and perpetual derivatives tied to real-world markets.
In January, Binance launched “TradFi” perpetual contracts, offering USDT-settled derivatives linked to commodities such as gold and silver with 24/7, no-expiry trading. The following month, Kraken expanded the model to equities, introducing tokenized perpetual futures that provide leveraged exposure to US stock indexes, gold and specific companies.
Earlier this month, Coinbase said it would introduce round-the-clock trading for Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) futures in the US and expand into perpetual-style contracts.
At the same time, tokenized equities have grown steadily. Data from RWA.xyz shows total onchain value rising to about $1.09 billion from roughly $300 million at the start of 2025.
The market remains relatively concentrated, led by a mix of tokenized equities and exchange-traded products. Circle Internet Group accounts for about $136.8 million in value, followed by Exodus Movement at $83 million and Alphabet at $72.9 million, with Tesla and the iShares Silver Trust also among the largest holdings.
Magazine: Big Questions: Can Bitcoin save you from the dreaded Cantillon Effect?
A pseudonymous whale called Jason has built a 2,281 BTC short on Binance, now in multi‑million profit, extending a pattern of eerily well‑timed macro trades.
Summary
- On-chain sleuths say Jason holds a 2,281 BTC short on Binance at a $74,238 entry, sitting on roughly $4.2 million in unrealized profit with BTC near $72,467.
- The trader’s history includes perfectly timed shorts during prior market crashes and a reported $58.89 million loss, underscoring a high‑conviction, high‑risk strategy.
- Today’s bet lands as Bitcoin slides on Iran-linked Strait of Hormuz tensions and hotter‑than‑expected U.S. PPI, with analysts split on whether Jason is signal or noise.
A pseudonymous trader known online as Jason (@Jason60704294) is once again drawing scrutiny from on-chain analysts after data published Wednesday by blockchain sleuth @ai_9684xtpa revealed that Jason currently holds a short position of 2,281.09 BTC on Binance, with a nominal value of approximately $169 million and an opening average entry price of $74,238. With Bitcoin (BTC) trading around $72,467 at the time of monitoring — roughly 2.38% below Jason’s entry point — the position carries an unrealized floating profit of approximately $4.155 million.
The trade is not an isolated event. It is the latest chapter in a documented pattern that has made Jason one of the most closely tracked retail-sized whale accounts in crypto markets. According to on-chain analysis aggregated by Blockchain.news, Jason had just days earlier closed a long position with a profit of $14.668 million before pivoting sharply to the short side, opening an initial position of 28.48 BTC at an estimated entry price of around $74,210. Wednesday’s data confirms that position has since been substantially scaled up to over 2,281 BTC — a markedly more aggressive commitment.
Jason’s history adds considerable weight to the current trade. In August 2025, the trader opened short positions on BTC at $120,948 and on ETH at $4,712, positions that — if held — would have generated substantial returns as both assets declined sharply in subsequent months. Earlier, the trader had reportedly exited positions recording a $58.89 million loss, underscoring that the strategy carries real risk despite its headline-grabbing wins.
The timing of today’s short aligns with a broader market deterioration. Bitcoin has been under sustained pressure since late February, when U.S.-Israel military strikes on Iran triggered a Strait of Hormuz crisis that has since disrupted approximately 15% of global oil supply. Wednesday’s release of U.S. February PPI data — coming in at 0.7% month-on-month against a 0.3% forecast — compounded the risk-off sentiment, further dimming expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts that had previously underpinned crypto’s bull case.
It is worth noting the platform context. Jason’s current position is held on Binance, not on Hyperliquid, making real-time on-chain tracking of the exact account more difficult, as Odaily reported. The figures cited are derived from analyst monitoring of wallet behaviour and social media timestamps rather than direct smart contract reads. Nonetheless, the data is broadly consistent with Jason’s established trading fingerprint: high-conviction, concentrated directional bets placed at key technical inflection points.
Whether Wednesday’s short is prescient once again, or whether it becomes a cautionary tale in an eventual Bitcoin rebound, remains to be seen. What is clear is that a growing cohort of on-chain analysts are watching every move — and that in a market defined by opacity, Jason has become something of an unlikely signal in the noise.
The negative ETF streak finally came to an end, which is the first good sign for XRP.
Ripple’s native cross-border token was rejected at over $1.60 yesterday and has dropped by over 10% since that local peak to $1.45 as of press time.
Nevertheless, there are a couple of positive signs for its short-term price movements, including the reactivation of whale wallets.
2 Bullish Signs
The spot XRP ETFs in the United States had entered their worst streak in terms of consecutive daily net outflows (or lack of any flows) that lasted nearly two straight weeks – from March 5, when investors pulled out just over $6 million, to March 16, when the withdrawals were just shy of that number. In the meantime, there were two days with zero reportable activity.
However, that negative trend was finally broken yesterday as the funds attracted $4.64 million – the highest single-day figure since March 3. As such, the total net inflows have remained above $1.2 billion.
The second positive news for the XRP Army comes from whales. After a prolonged period of lack of any substantial activity, these large market participants have resumed their accumulation spree. Citing data from Santiment, Ali Martinez asserted that they have bought 200 million tokens in the past two weeks. In terms of USD, this stash is worth roughly $300 million at current prices.
200 million $XRP have been bought by whales in the last two weeks! pic.twitter.com/sMQNef3VZN
— Ali Charts (@alicharts) March 18, 2026
XRP Price Rejected
Yesterday’s positive net inflow day for the ETFs, aligned with the accumulation from whales and the overall market-wide resurgence, led to an impressive rally for XRP. The token surpassed BNB in terms of market cap after it jumped to a monthly high of around $1.63.
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Although analysts began praising the move and setting new big targets ahead, XRP was rejected at that point and driven south by over 10%. It currently struggles to remain above $1.45. This correction comes despite the recent expansion news from the company behind the asset, as well as the fact that the top traders on Binance have been “quietly buying XRP long positions,” according to data from popular analyst CW.
Binance top traders are quietly buying $XRP long positions. pic.twitter.com/01QV7hj7AC
— CW (@CW8900) March 18, 2026
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Additional reporting by Turner Wright.
The FTX Recovery Trust, which oversees the distribution of funds to creditors and former customers of the failed crypto exchange, announced on Wednesday that it will distribute $2.2 billion to creditors on March 31, 2026.
Eligible creditors will receive their funds through their chosen distribution provider within one to three business days, according to an announcement from the Trust.
The fourth distribution includes a 18% payout for Dotcom Customer claims, a 5% distribution for US Customer Entitlement Claims and a 15% distribution for both General Unsecured Claims and Digital Asset Loan Claims.
Convenience claims will receive a 120% reimbursement under the recovery plan, according to the announcement.
Following the fourth round of distributions, about $10 billion will have been paid out to creditors and former customers of the exchange. The fifth round of payments is scheduled for May 29, 2026, according to the trust.
The reimbursements could effect crypto prices in the short term if creditors and former customers of the FTX exchange, which collapsed in 2022, invest the recovery funds in digital assets.
Related: Court sets deadline for US to address Bankman-Fried’s new trial motion
FTX recovers billions in payouts, but creditors say it isn’t nearly enough
The FTX Recovery Estate began creditor payments in February 2025, with a $1.2 billion payment, followed by a $5 billion distribution the following May. The third round of creditor payments was distributed in September 2025 and totaled $1.6 billion.
Despite the billions of dollars recovered, creditors and former customers of the FTX exchange say they were short-changed by the recovery plan.
Creditors and former customers were reimbursed according to crypto asset values at the petition date in 2022, when legal action was taken against the exchange by creditors and customers.
Crypto asset values were much lower when the petition was filed, with Bitcoin (BTC) then trading at about $16,871, and Ether (ETH) at about $1,258.
“FTX creditors are not whole,” FTX creditor and creditor advocate Sunil Kavuri said in response to the reimbursement plan.
Convicted founder “SBF” pursues appeal, prison change
The latest effort to make victims whole comes amid appeal efforts by Sam “SBF” Bankman-Fried, the former CEO of FTX, who was sentenced to 25 years in prison following his 2023 conviction related to the misuse of customer funds.
He has posted to his X account using a proxy, often praising US President Donald Trump’s actions in the country’s conflict with Iran and his approach to regulating digital assets. Many experts speculate that the former CEO is lobbying the president for a pardon, but Trump reportedly said in January that he would not consider it.
As of Wednesday, Bankman-Fried was housed at the Federal Correctional Institution Terminal Island in the Los Angeles area. However, a Monday court filing by his mother claimed that he would be relocated “sometime in the next couple of weeks.”
Magazine: The $2,500 doco about FTX collapse on Amazon Prime… with help from mom
Crypto World
Smartest Ripple (XRP) Alternative? Smart Money Move To Taurux (TAUX) as Presale Surpasses $300K Raised
Sixty percent of XRP’s circulating supply is currently held at a cost basis above market price. That is 36.8 billion tokens sitting on a combined $50.8 billion in unrealized losses.
XRP trades at $1.51, down from its $3.65 all-time high reached in July 2025. Whales are buying into the pain: large wallets added 1.3 billion XRP in just 48 hours this month, and $738 million worth of tokens moved to cold storage in a single day. The smart money is accumulating while 60% of holders bleed. That dynamic tells you who controls the next move and who is along for the ride.
Passive holders hoping the whales will push the price past their cost basis are dependent on a group whose interests may not align with theirs. Taurox (TAUX) is a decentralized hedge fund where AI agents will trade pooled capital across DEXs and CEXs once the presale ends. Stakers keep 80% of net profits from strategies that generate returns regardless of any single token’s cost basis distribution.
What the High-Water Mark Means for Protecting Staker Gains
The high-water mark prevents agents from earning fees on recovery. If an agent generates $10,000 in profit, then loses $3,000, the creator earns nothing on the next $3,000 of gains. Performance fees only apply to net new highs above the previous peak. Recovery is free for stakers. This eliminates the classic fund problem where managers collect fresh fees while clawing back to breakeven.
Agents that consistently fail to reach new highs lose capital allocation through Sharpe-weighted rebalancing. Capital flows away gradually as performance declines. No forced liquidation. Stakers keep 80% of net gains at the standard tier. The protocol takes 5% on profits only, with 30% burned permanently and 70% flowing to the DAO treasury. Sixty percent of XRP holders are underwater with no mechanism preventing further decline.
Taurox stakers benefit from a high-water mark that ensures they never pay for an agent’s mistakes twice. One position has a $50.8 billion loss overhang with no structural protection against further decline. The other has protocol-level safeguards that ensure stakers never subsidize an agent’s recovery from losses. That difference is architectural, not speculative.
Phase 2 Fills While 60% of XRP Holders Wait to Break Even
Phase 1 of the TAUX presale sold out in under 24 hours at $0.01. Phase 1 buyers are already up 20% at Phase 2’s price of $0.012, without staking or seeing an agent trade pool capital. The presale has raised $314.7K, and Phase 2 is 23.9% filled. Nineteen phases run from $0.01 to $0.07, each closing permanently once its allocation sells out. The price steps up and the previous entry vanishes forever. Staking activates at the end of the presale, and agents begin trading once the pool goes live.
XRP holders sitting on $50.8 billion in unrealized losses need the price to more than double just to break even. The TAUX presale is pricing in forward value before the pool even activates. The buyers entering Phase 2 right now are not waiting to recover from losses.
They are positioning before agents begin trading. Every token sold at $0.012 brings Phase 2 closer to closing permanently. The window is narrowing in real time, and the cost of hesitation is a permanently higher price tier. Waiting costs real money when phases close and the entry steps up with no exceptions.
Phase 2 Entry and Upside Math
Phase 2 is live at $0.012. Listing at $0.08 is a 6.67x return before the pool produces any profit. A $1 post-listing target is x83 from the current price. At a $1 billion pool with 30% gross returns, implied price reaches $1.85, or x154 from today’s entry. The protocol charges 5% on gross profits only. No management fees at any tier. Thirty percent of collected fees are burned permanently. Supply is locked at 2 billion tokens, non-mintable.
XRP has $50.8 billion in underwater positions. The TAUX presale has $314.7K from buyers who entered at the ground floor. Every profitable trade by agents will compress supply further through the burn mechanism. Phase 2 will not survive the same demand that emptied Phase 1 in a single day.
Learn More
Buy TAUX: https://taurox.io/
Whitepaper: https://docs.taurox.io/
Official Telegram: https://t.me/tauroxlabs
The post Smartest Ripple (XRP) Alternative? Smart Money Move To Taurux (TAUX) as Presale Surpasses $300K Raised appeared first on Blockonomi.
XRP has legal clarity and sits in a post‑parabolic range; models see slow upside toward 2026–2030, with any real breakout hinging on Ripple turning hype into payment volume.
Summary
- XRP trades in the mid‑$1.40s and is negative year‑to‑date after a huge 2024–2025 run, behaving like a large‑cap alt digesting gains rather than a meme coin about to explode.
- The 2025 SEC settlement treated XRP as a non‑security for exchange trading, imposed manageable penalties on Ripple, and lifted the lawsuit overhang, but shifted the story from court drama to execution risk.
- Base‑case models cluster around a gradual climb (roughly $1.7–$1.9 by 2030), with higher $3–$6—and in extreme cases above $10—only if Ripple captures meaningful real‑world payment flows and liquidity.
XRP (XRP) is trading around the mid‑$1.40s in March 2026, still capped below its post‑SEC‑settlement spike highs but comfortably above the dead‑money zone it occupied for most of the lawsuit era. With legal overhang largely gone and macro liquidity improving, the next leg depends on one thing: whether Ripple can convert regulatory clarity into real payment volume instead of just social media nostalgia.
Where XRP Stands Now
Spot XRP has been oscillating roughly between $1.40 and $1.70 year‑to‑date, with March prints clustered near $1.40–$1.50. On a longer window, 2026 YTD performance is negative double digits after a monster 2024–2025 run, a typical post‑parabolic digestion phase. Derivatives markets are also sober: XRP March 2026 futures reflect only modest premium over spot, implying that professionals are not pricing in an imminent vertical move. In other words, this is not a meme mania – it’s a large‑cap alt consolidating after finally getting regulatory answers.
What The SEC Settlement Changed
The multi‑year SEC fight effectively ended in 2025 with a settlement that left XRP legally treated as a non‑security for exchange trading, while penalizing Ripple’s past institutional sales. Ripple absorbed around $125 million in penalties, a rounding error relative to prior fears of multi‑billion‑dollar damages, and walked away with a workable compliance roadmap. Post‑settlement, several analyses note that XRP’s valuation stabilized in a higher band, roughly in the low‑to‑mid single dollars at peak before retracing, as legal clarity pulled sidelined capital back in. The lawsuit is no longer the story; execution is.
XRP Price Predictions: 2026–2030
Model‑driven forecasts are boring on the surface but important for framing expectations. Binance’s aggregated prediction data puts current spot near $1.45, with year‑ahead projections moving gradually higher into the $1.70–$1.80 zone by late 2026 and around $1.75–$1.90 by 2030 – essentially a slow grind scenario. Other quant models, like CoinCodex, see XRP at about $1.78 by the end of 2026 and around $5.90 by 2030, implying roughly 20% upside in the near term and a 3x over four years if adoption tracks their curve. Centralized‑exchange research desks such as Kraken float similar near‑term bands around $1.50 for 2026, reinforcing the idea that base‑case pricing is incremental, not explosive. More aggressive boutiques push optimistic 2030 targets between $5 and $7.50 – and in one extreme scenario even above $10–$20 – but explicitly condition those paths on Ripple capturing a meaningful slice of SWIFT‑scale flows.
Trading The Narrative, Not The Myth
The rational way to treat XRP now is as a large‑cap, event‑driven payments token with asymmetric but conditional upside. A conservative band for 2026 sits roughly between $1.20 and $2.00, with the lower edge funded by macro risk‑off and the upper edge needing sustained inflows from banks, fintechs, and on‑chain liquidity venues. If Ripple manages to convert regulatory clarity plus infrastructure deals into real settlement volume, the 2030 path into $3–$6 is plausible; if not, XRP risks remaining a high‑beta index of past cycles rather than a leader of the next one. Position sizing should respect that profile: think of XRP as closer to a volatile financial infrastructure equity than a lottery ticket – meaningful upside, but paid out over adoption cycles, not overnight.
Polymarket has acquired DeFi infrastructure startup Brahma, folding its smart-account execution layer into a prediction market now eyeing a $20B valuation and an AI‑driven, onchain future.
Summary
- Polymarket bought Brahma, a DeFi infrastructure startup for programmable smart accounts and automated execution, in its third acquisition in under a year as it eyes a $20 billion valuation.
- Brahma will wind down outside partnerships and focus on Polymarket’s stack, streamlining wallets, deposits, asset routing and result-token redemptions while helping bring deeper liquidity into niche contracts.
- The deal follows earlier QCEX and Dome buys and comes as algorithmic traders and AI bots dominate Polymarket performance tables, making robust, low-friction onchain plumbing a competitive necessity.
Polymarket, the blockchain-based prediction market platform currently eyeing a valuation of approximately $20 billion, has acquired Brahma — a DeFi infrastructure startup focused on programmable smart accounts and onchain execution automation — for an undisclosed sum, Fortune reported on Wednesday. The deal marks Polymarket’s third known acquisition in under a year and signals a deliberate strategic shift: the company is not merely growing its user base, it is acquiring the technical substrate to build a more sophisticated onchain financial product.
Brahma was co-founded in 2021 by Alessandro Tenconi, Akanshu Jain, and Bapi Reddy Karri, and operates as a full-stack execution layer for DeFi. Rather than functioning as a conventional crypto wallet, Brahma provides a unified smart account infrastructure that allows users — and autonomous agents — to batch complex DeFi transactions, including swaps, lending, bridging, and collateral posting, into a single programmable flow. The platform has processed over $1 billion in transaction volume across more than 13,000 accounts and secured upwards of $100 million in user assets, all without a single publicly disclosed security incident. Its investor roster includes Framework Ventures, Lightspeed Venture Partners, Maven 11 Capital, and Safe (formerly Gnosis Safe).
According to the ChainCatcher report citing Fortune, Brahma will terminate its existing projects with other partners following the acquisition. Its team will integrate into Polymarket with a specific mandate: optimising user experience across wallet creation, asset deposits and conversions, and result token exchanges, while leveraging Brahma’s DeFi expertise to bring greater liquidity to Polymarket’s niche contract markets.
Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan — who became the world’s youngest self-made billionaire at age 27 following a $2 billion strategic investment from Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) in October 2025, which valued Polymarket at $9 billion — stated that the Brahma team has the capability “to design, operate, and scale complex products”. Polymarket is now reportedly seeking a fresh funding round that could push its valuation to $20 billion, up from the $9 billion set at the ICE investment.
The acquisition is Polymarket’s most infrastructure-oriented move to date. Its previous deals included QCEX, a U.S.-licensed derivatives exchange that enabled the platform’s re-entry into the American market following earlier regulatory difficulties, and Dome, a Y Combinator-backed startup that built a unified API layer for prediction markets, acquired in February 2026. Each acquisition has addressed a different layer of the stack: regulatory access, developer infrastructure, and now onchain execution.
Crucially, Polymarket has always operated on a blockchain architecture rather than the fiat-based systems used by its main competitor Kalshi. The acquisition of Brahma deepens that native onchain advantage, particularly as prediction markets increasingly attract algorithmic traders and AI-driven bots — a dynamic recently documented by Phemex, which found that bots dominate the top-performing accounts on Polymarket, underscoring the growing importance of programmable, low-friction execution infrastructure.
The deal arrives at a moment of intense scrutiny for prediction markets broadly. Polymarket has faced questions about insider trading — most visibly when a single account made $553,000 betting on events related to Iran just before its supreme leader was killed in February. Coplan has acknowledged the platform faces growing backlash as it scales. Acquiring Brahma’s robust, agent-native infrastructure suggests the company is preparing for a future in which its markets serve not just human forecasters, but a much denser ecosystem of automated participants.
Is ETH heading toward new local peaks or will the bears regain control?
The second-largest cryptocurrency has performed quite well over the past seven days, increasing its valuation by double digits despite its Wednesday correction.
According to numerous analysts, the uptrend could continue in the short term, with some envisioning an astonishing increase toward a new all-time high.
The Rally Goes on?
Earlier this week, ETH soared to almost $2,400, or its highest point since the start of February. Currently, it trades at around $2,200, up 8% on a weekly basis.
The renewed upswing caught the eye of many industry participants who believe the valuation has yet to reach fresh local tops. X user Galaxy set $2,400 and $2,600 as the next potential targets, while Trader Tardigrade envisioned a pump to as high as $2,670.
Ted, who often discusses ETH’s performance, chipped in as well. He thinks the price could hit the $2,400 resistance zone, but that might be a “fakeout” and be followed by a substantial decline.
Meanwhile, several on-chain factors support the bullish scenario. The US spot ETH ETFs have been flashing green over the past six days, meaning inflows have dominated outflows. This reflects rising interest among institutional investors in gaining exposure to the asset and could positively impact future price performance.
Next on the list is the amount of ETH sitting on crypto exchanges. Earlier this week, the figure fell to a nearly 10-year low of around 15.85 million coins. This trend signals that investors continue to shift their holdings toward self-custody methods, thus lowering the immediate selling pressure.
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Ethereum’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) should also be mentioned. The technical analysis tool, which measures the speed and magnitude of recent price changes, tumbled to 22. This means the asset has entered oversold territory and could be gearing up for a rally.
The Moon Scenarios
According to other analysts, ETH might be on the verge of a much more substantial increase that can take it to uncharted territory. X user ray claimed that $10,000 is “not a dream, just a milestone.”
A few days ago, the renowned investor and one who successfully predicted the 2008 financial collapse, Robert Kiyosaki, sounded the alarm that major banks and institutions are in trouble, hinting that another crash could be on the way.
Later on, he forecasted that “the biggest bubble” is about to burst, foreseeing that once the meltdown is over, BTC, ETH, gold, and silver will emerge as the major winners. As for the second-largest cryptocurrency, he envisioned its price skyrocketing to a (for now) almost unbelievable $95,000 within a year after the catastrophe.
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Sen. Cynthia Lummis says the Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act “must be completed by the end of the year,” with Republicans planning a late‑April Banking Committee markup after months of delay.
Summary
- Lummis told colleagues the CLARITY Act “must be completed by the end of the year,” and said Republican members of Senate Banking aim to start markup in late April after Easter.
- The bill would split oversight of “digital commodities” and securities between the CFTC and SEC, set rules for exchanges and issuers, and plug gaps left by the 2025 GENIUS Act stablecoin law.
- A dispute over banning passive stablecoin yield had stalled progress and even cost Coinbase’s support, but Lummis now says compromises on yield and DeFi language are “largely reached,” putting pressure on Washington to finish the job in a crowded 2026 calendar.
Senator Cynthia Lummis (R-WY) delivered her clearest deadline yet for the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act on Wednesday, declaring during discussions reported by crypto journalist Eleanor Terrett that the landmark cryptocurrency market structure bill “must be completed by the end of the year” — regardless of the obstacles that have repeatedly delayed its progress. Lummis also revealed that the Republican side of the Senate Banking Committee is planning to initiate the bill’s markup process in late April, after the Easter holiday recess.
The remarks represent a significant hardening of Lummis’s posture on the CLARITY Act — formally the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act — which has been the most consequential piece of pending crypto legislation in Congress since the passage of the GENIUS Act stablecoin law in July 2025. Lummis, who chairs the Senate Subcommittee on Digital Assets, has been the bill’s most prominent champion, framing it as essential to U.S. leadership in digital finance and arguing that it would establish regulatory protections that future administrations could not easily reverse.
The CLARITY Act seeks to resolve the long-running jurisdictional dispute between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission over digital assets, assigning the CFTC primary oversight authority over digital commodities while preserving SEC authority over tokens classified as securities. It also sets registration and disclosure requirements for crypto trading platforms and token issuers. The House passed its version of the bill in 2025, but the Senate has advanced a narrower iteration that imposes stricter customer-protection requirements and limits regulatory discretion — setting up a “high-stakes negotiation” between the two chambers over the final text.
The thorniest unresolved issue has been stablecoin yield. An earlier draft of the Senate’s CLARITY Act included language prohibiting stablecoin issuers from paying interest or yield solely for holding a stablecoin balance — a provision designed to prevent payment stablecoins from competing directly with insured bank deposits. The clause would permit activity-based rewards tied to real usage — such as payments, liquidity provision, staking, or network governance participation — but bar passive yield simply for custody. Coinbase cited these provisions as grounds for withdrawing its support for the bill, while banking groups backed the restrictions.
Wednesday’s statement from Lummis offered the most encouraging signal yet that this impasse is breaking. She said a solution on the stablecoin yield question “has been largely reached,” and added that disputes over DeFi-related provisions have also “been properly addressed”. Sources familiar with the negotiations had previously described talks between legislators and industry as moving “in the right direction,” with Digital Chamber CEO Cody Carbone expressing optimism about securing an affirmative vote.
The late-April markup timeline is more concrete than any previously announced. Earlier in the year, the Banking Committee had scheduled a markup for January only to pull it the day before, after Lummis acknowledged that the bill needed further agreement — particularly around the concerns of banks and credit unions worried about stablecoin-driven deposit outflows. The delay prompted open frustration from Lummis, who had urged Democratic colleagues not to retreat from months of bipartisan progress.
With the GENIUS Act already signed into law and its implementing regulations now under OCC review, the CLARITY Act represents the remaining pillar of what the industry has long called a comprehensive U.S. digital asset regulatory framework. Lummis has set a year-end deadline. Whether Washington can hold to it — in a legislative calendar already crowded by geopolitical crises and a contentious Fed cycle — will determine whether 2026 becomes the year crypto finally gets its rules.
Pi has morphed from a hyped IOU into a battered $0.18 L1; 2026’s open mainnet will decide whether it earns real usage or just fuels another round of unlocked sell pressure.
Summary
- Pi now trades near $0.18 with a roughly $1.7–1.8 billion market cap after an 80–90% rally toward $0.30 faded, as unlocks and miner distribution keep it pinned near cycle lows.
- The 2026 “open mainnet” pivot — stricter KYC, biometric checks and migrating 2.5 million users into a compliant, transferable environment — is the only real catalyst beyond more supply hitting order books.
- External forecasts mostly cluster around range‑bound outcomes, with 2026 levels near $0.20 and best‑case 2030 targets in the low single digits if, and only if, Pi proves real usage, listings and on‑chain activity.
Pi Network (PI) has moved from a hyped IOU narrative to a battered, liquid L1 asset trading around the mid‑$0.17–$0.18 range, with its next leg entirely dependent on whether the 2026 open mainnet phase actually delivers real usage instead of just unlocked sell pressure. Treat it like any other high‑beta alt: structurally cheap on optics, structurally dangerous on tokenomics and execution risk.
Where Pi Trades Now
Pi sits near $0.18 with a market cap around $1.7–1.8 billion, down sharply from its speculative IOU blow‑off in 2022 when prices briefly printed triple‑digit wicks on thin order books. Recent price action tells you everything: the token rallied roughly 80–90% into late February–mid March 2026 toward $0.30, then faded back toward $0.20 as momentum stalled and RSI divergences flashed. Unlocks are biting – the token has logged several sessions near its all‑time low area as supply from long‑time “miners” meets underwhelming demand on centralized venues. Liquidity is decent but not deep enough to absorb aggressive distribution from a 10‑figure fully diluted supply without persistent slippage.
What Actually Changes In 2026
The core fundamental catalyst is the move toward an “open mainnet” with real transactions, dApps and stricter KYC/security, after years of closed‑ecosystem promises. The team is rolling out enhanced verification (KYC, palm‑print, AI checks) and has cleared roughly 2.5 million users for migration, crucial to get coins off the grey zone and into a compliant, transferable state. A broader 2026 roadmap ties this to supporting real‑world finance integrations and payments, but so far the market has treated each technical milestone (like the Pi Launchpad testnet) as a sell‑the‑news event rather than a re‑rating trigger.
Price Scenarios: 2026–2030
External models cluster Pi’s fair‑value band for the next few years somewhere between “modest grind” and “permanent underperformance.” Gate.io’s internal work sees an average near $0.20 for 2026, with a rough range between about $0.16 and $0.27 – effectively where it is already trading. Other forecasters project that, if the ecosystem scales and listings proliferate, Pi could grind into the low single digits by 2030, with some estimates around $2.50–$3.50 under constructive conditions. Those paths assume three things that are not yet proven: successful open mainnet, sustained user activity beyond mining, and a crypto macro environment that rewards L1 risk instead of choking it.
Verdict: Trade The Range, Don’t Worship The Narrative
For now, Pi looks like a liquid, range‑bound beta play rather than a structural compounder. Bulls get a clear technical invalidation: hold above the mid‑$0.17 pivot and reclaim the $0.23–$0.25 resistance band, and the market can start repricing toward the psychological $0.30–$0.40 area on any mainnet or listing surprise. Bears lean on the opposite logic: continued unlocks plus weak on‑chain usage send Pi into a slow bleed, with each rally sold by early miners finally getting exit liquidity. In this tape, smart money treats Pi as an event‑driven trade around roadmap milestones and macro risk cycles, not as a religion – position small, respect liquidity, and assume volatility is the rule, not the exception.
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