Crypto World
Fed Holds Rates as Geopolitical Uncertainty Clouds Crypto Outlook
The Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee kept the federal funds target range unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75, signaling a wait-and-see stance as policymakers weigh the evolving macro backdrop and the geopolitical shock stemming from the Middle East. The decision preserves a restrictive stance while the central bank monitors inflation pressures and the economy’s ability to weather external shocks.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell framed the economy as performing well in broad terms — consumer spending staying resilient and business investment continuing to expand — but he warned that weaknesses linger in the housing market and the labor market shows signs of softening. Inflation, meanwhile, remains “somewhat elevated” relative to the 2% target, complicating the Fed’s path back to price stability.
The implications of events in the Middle East for the US economy are uncertain in the near term. Higher energy prices will push up overall inflation, but it is too soon to know the scope and duration of the potential effects on the economy.
The posture underscores a difficult balancing act: the Fed must pursue maximum employment while keeping inflation anchored, all in a context where the war’s economic spillovers could push energy costs higher and alter demand dynamics. Powell’s remarks suggest policymakers view the near-term outlook as uncertain, with energy price trajectories among the wild cards that will shape policy in the months ahead.
Key takeaways
- Policy remains unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%, with inflation lingering above the 2% goal and housing weakness alongside signs of labor-market cooling.
- Geopolitical tensions add energy-price risk, injecting additional uncertainty into the inflation path and the policy outlook.
- Markets broadly price in little near-term relief from rate cuts; CME data shows a 97% probability of no change at the next year-ahead horizon, with a small 3% chance of a 25-basis-point hike by April 2026 that would lift the range to 3.75%–4.00%.
- Industry commentary frames the gap between policy and liquidity flows: some observers expect potential easing if geopolitical strains intensify, while others see a gradual expansion of money supply lifting asset prices over time.
Policy stance amid a cloud of uncertainty
With inflation still stubbornly above target and a housing sector that has not fully recovered, the Fed’s decision to hold rates steady reinforces a cautious, data-driven posture. Powell emphasized that the economy’s breadth — including resilient consumer demand and ongoing investment — supports a patient approach to policy normalization. Yet he also acknowledged that the energy-price channel could complicate the inflation outlook if tensions in the Middle East persist or escalate.
The central bank’s balance between supporting employment and curbing inflation remains the defining tension of the moment. The war adds a layer of risk that policy makers must weigh against the need to avoid overtightening in an environment where consumer confidence and business sentiment can swing with energy headlines. In this context, the Fed’s forward guidance will be scrutinized for any signal about the pace and sequencing of future policy moves as new data arrive.
Market path and crypto implications
Traders have largely priced in a stationary policy path in the near term, with a long horizon view depending on how inflation evolves and how geopolitical risks unfold. Data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s FedWatch tool indicated a dominant expectation for no near-term changes, reinforcing a narrative of policy steadiness in the face of uncertainty. The odds of a rate hike at the next specified horizon sit at a slim margin, while the probability of any cuts remains uncertain for the medium term.
Analysts have offered a spectrum of views on how policy could adapt if geopolitical tensions permanently alter the risk landscape. Some market observers, including Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, have signaled a preference for lower rates before resuming bullish bets on bitcoin and other crypto assets. He has argued that a rate cut could bolster risk-taking and liquidity, potentially supporting crypto markets as capital seeks higher-yield opportunities.
On the other side of the debate, macro strategist Lyn Alden has described a scenario in which the Fed’s policy stance represents a gradual, ongoing expansion of monetary liquidity. In such a regime, asset prices, including digital assets, could receive support over time even without aggressive rate cuts, provided inflation remains contained and financial conditions remain accommodative enough to sustain broad-based investment activity.
For crypto investors and builders, the Fed’s decision underscores how sensitive risk assets remain to the direction of liquidity and the macro narrative around inflation and growth. A steady policy stance can reduce the impulsive volatility that often accompanies surprise shifts in rate expectations, but the ultimate crypto implication will hinge on how long inflation stays above target, how the labor market evolves, and how energy-price dynamics respond to geopolitical developments.
Beyond the immediate policy path, the relationship between Fed signals and risk assets suggests traders will monitor several ping points: incoming inflation prints, employment data, housing metrics, and evolving energy prices tied to Middle East developments. The crypto market’s sensitivity to liquidity conditions means any durable shift in the rate outlook could quickly reweight risk appetite across tokens, with capital potentially rotating between traditional risk assets and digital instruments tied to alternative financial rails.
As the central bank maintains a calibrated stance, investors should watch how policymakers view the trajectory of inflation in the wake of heightened geopolitical risk. A credible path back toward the 2% target—if energy-price pressures subside or are absorbed without a prolonged disruption—could reopen room for rate normalization. Conversely, persistent or rising inflation would keep policy more restrictive, with potential knock-on effects for both equities and crypto markets.
Looking ahead, the next round of economic data and any fresh guidance from policymakers will be pivotal. If energy prices stabilize and inflation moves closer to target, markets could begin pricing in a more confident glide path, potentially supporting broader risk-taking, including crypto ecosystems that rely on liquidity and favorable financing conditions.
In the meantime, traders and builders in the crypto space should remain attentive to shifts in liquidity and macro narrative. While the Fed’s decision to hold rates steadies some near-term risk, the ongoing Middle East situation remains a critical wildcard that could redefine the pace of policy normalization and, by extension, the appetite for risk across asset classes.
What comes next will hinge on incoming data, the resilience of consumer demand, and how energy markets absorb geopolitical developments. As investors recalibrate, the crypto sector will likely respond to evolving liquidity conditions and the broader assessment of risk appetite in a world where policy and geopolitics remain tightly interwoven.
PlayNance, a unified on-chain infrastructure specifically engineered to power the entire world of gaming, betting, and prediction, has launched its highly anticipated native cryptocurrency, GCOIN.
This represents a massive milestone when it comes to the expansion of its Web3 entertainment ecosystem.
GCOIN Deposits at MEXC Now Live, 200K Holders Already
GCOIN will start trading on one of the most popular altcoin-oriented exchanges in the industry – MEXC, and deposits are already open. Speaking on the matter was the CEO of PlayNance, Pini Peter, who said:
“Today marks a defining moment for Playnance. […] We identified early the opportunity to bring real scale into Web3 entertainment, and we’re building one of the leading ecosystems to support it. With GCOIN now live, we’re opening the door to what comes next – a new wave of users, new models, and a much larger shift in how entertainment moves on-chain. This is just the beginning.”
The coin has already attracted over 200,000 holders, with the presale selling over 14 billion tokens.
It’s worth noting that the project’s entire ecosystem has built its token model around rewards, linking the value distribution directly to platform activity rather than relying on fixed emissions.
Playnance already hosts more than 10,000 on-chain games and processes more than 2 million on-chain transactions per day, which reflects a strong user engagement, as well as growing adoption across the entire network.
GCOIN: Powering an Impressive Ecosystem
GCOIN represents the utility token that powers the economic execution across the protocol’s ecosystem. It’s used as a unit for value movement and settlement, and it incentivizes distribution across the PlayBlock layer-3 solution and applications powered by Playnance.
By design, it is intended for high-frequency and real-time use.
That said, the team has also highlighted principles of wallet-based ownership and execution. This means that users hold the cryptocurrency directly in their wallets. Balances and state changes are written on-chain for complete transparency, while users can also verify all network activity through the explorer.
In terms of functionality, GCOIN is designed as a shared utility layer across all applications on Playnance.
This means:
- One wallet balance per user
- One token standard across the ecosystem
- No user-side bridging to move value between supported applications
- Gasless user experience
It’s also worth noting that the team recently launched GCOIN staking, providing yet another mechanism for users to earn rewards simply by staking their tokens. Naturally, the longer the staking period, the larger the reward. This model has proven to attract considerable interest, with more than 250 million tokens staked within hours.
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A Coinbase–EY survey of 351 institutions finds 74% expect crypto prices to rise and 73% plan to increase allocations, with stablecoins and tokenisation driving the next wave.
Summary
- A January 2026 Coinbase and EY-Parthenon survey of 351 institutions found 74% expect crypto prices to rise and 73% plan to increase allocations this year.
- Respondents now favour ETPs and other regulated vehicles for exposure, while 83% already use or plan to use stablecoins and view the GENIUS Act as a key catalyst.
- Sixty-three percent are interested in tokenised assets and 61% see tokenisation reshaping market structure, even as recent volatility pushes nearly half to tighten risk and liquidity management.
Despite a brutal Wednesday for digital asset prices — Bitcoin (BTC) sliding to $72,300 and a broad market selloff driven by Middle East conflict and hot inflation data — a major new institutional survey published this week tells a strikingly different story about where the smart money is heading. A joint report by Coinbase and EY-Parthenon, based on a survey of 351 institutional investors conducted in January 2026, found that 74% of respondents expect cryptocurrency prices to rise in the future, while 73% plan to increase their digital asset allocation before the end of the year.
The findings represent a significant institutionalisation of crypto conviction. The survey, which polled decision-makers at asset managers, hedge funds, private banks, venture capital firms, family offices, and asset owners globally, found that exchange-traded products (ETPs) and other regulated instruments have now become the preferred exposure vehicle for two-thirds of respondents. That shift — from direct on-chain holdings toward regulated wrappers — reflects both the maturing product landscape and the compliance imperatives of institutional capital, following the landmark approval and uptake of spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in the U.S. over the past two years.
When asked about the primary obstacle to further institutional engagement, more than three-quarters of respondents pointed to market structure regulation as the issue requiring the most urgent clarification. This finding echoes the prior year’s survey, in which 52% of respondents named regulatory uncertainty as their top concern and 68% identified greater regulatory clarity as the single most important catalyst for the industry’s next growth phase.
The regulatory landscape has shifted materially since then. The GENIUS Act — signed into law by President Trump on July 18, 2025 — established the first comprehensive federal framework for payment stablecoins in the United States, introducing 1:1 reserve mandates, licensing requirements, and federal preemption over conflicting state regimes. The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency subsequently issued proposed implementing regulations in March 2026, with a public comment deadline of May 1. The survey’s findings suggest institutions are watching this process closely: 83% of respondents said they have used or plan to use stablecoins for payments and financial management, while 83% also said passage of the GENIUS Act would enhance financial institutions’ willingness to participate in the stablecoin market.
The appetite for tokenised assets is similarly broad. Sixty-three percent of respondents expressed interest in tokenised assets, and 61% expect tokenisation to have a significant impact on market structure — a finding consistent with the rapid growth of real-world asset (RWA) tokenisation across DeFi platforms, where Morpho alone saw RWA deposits grow from near zero to $400 million over the course of 2025.
Amid widespread bullishness, the survey also captured the scars of recent volatility. Nearly half of respondents — 49% — said that recent market fluctuations had led them to place greater emphasis on risk management, liquidity, and position control, rather than reducing their holdings outright. That distinction matters: institutional capital appears to be recalibrating its approach rather than retreating, a posture that may prove consequential as markets navigate the current geopolitical shock.
The juxtaposition between Wednesday’s price action and the survey’s conclusions encapsulates the central tension facing institutional crypto allocators in 2026: near-term macro headwinds severe enough to test conviction, set against a structural adoption thesis that continues to broaden quarter by quarter.
Key takeaways:
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Robert Kiyosaki’s $750,000 Bitcoin target implies a 95% discount versus gold, which is lower than the 2024 peak.
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$750,000 Bitcoin might not be that significant if daily expenses, housing and energy rise in like kind.
Robert Kiyosaki, author of the “Rich Dad Poor Dad” series, stated in a social media post on Monday that a massive financial “bubble burst” is imminent. The financial educator suggests this unprecedented economic crisis will eventually lead to a $750,000 Bitcoin (BTC) rally within one year of the crash.
While Kiyosaki’s estimate seems extremely bullish at first sight, a more granular view gives deeper meaning to his price prediction.
For a prediction to be valid, one needs a timeframe, even if it is stretched out over the next 12 months or more. Even if the Bitcoin price eventually reaches $750,000, the measure of success will largely depend on average US house prices or the annual cost of living for a typical family.
Accelerated expansion of the global monetary supply, such as the period between 2020 and 2021, tends to trigger a surge in demand for scarce assets, regardless of official government inflation metrics. For instance, the S&P 500 gained 52% between July 2020 and December 2021, while average home prices in major US capital cities surged by 38% in two years.
Kiyosaki anticipates that gold prices will surge to $35,000 per ounce one year after the financial “bubble burst,” which would be a 546% gain from its highest-ever daily close. As a comparison, Bitcoin’s optimistic $750,000 target stands 500% above its $124,724 record daily close.
Kiyosaki predicts gold will subjugate Bitcoin as a store of value
Kiyosaki’s target for gold yields a $243.2 trillion market capitalization, which is 4.4 times larger than the current aggregate market cap for the entire S&P 500.
Kiyosaki believes the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio should reach 21.5, far below the 40 all-time high from December 2024. More concerningly, the current 200-day moving average for the ratio stands at 22, making Kiyosaki’s estimate far from bullish for the cryptocurrency. Additionally, gold’s annual output should grow considerably if its price surges to such levels.
Kiyosaki has reportedly been predicting great economic crashes since at least 2011 without much success, according to US News. In a September 2015 post, Kiyosaki said, “I’ve been predicting since ’02 that we would see a stock market crash in ’16,” while the S&P 500 actually gained 9.5% in that year. Trying to time market moves more than 10 years in advance seems rather unconventional.
In May 2024, Kiyosaki posted that the biggest crash in history had begun, advising followers to “not get greedy” and avoid catching “falling knives.” The suggestion came five months after a prior warning about a bank credit sell-off similar to 2008. More than 20 months later, nothing remotely similar has occurred.
Related: Lyn Alden tips Bitcoin outperforming gold over next ‘two to three years’
In May 2024, Kiyosaki recommended saving in gold and silver, although Bitcoin was also mentioned. However, the S&P 500 rallied 16% over the following 8 months, while gold prices gained 15% and silver traded up 11%. Ultimately, Kiyosaki has a less-than-favourable track record and has been skewed toward favoring market collapses.
Even if Bitcoin hits $750,000, it does not mean the cryptocurrency will emerge as a top-5 asset by market capitalization, especially as Kiyosaki expects silver to surpass $11 trillion after the so-called “bubble burst.” Ultimately, the bold prediction is far from bullish for Bitcoin investors despite Kiyosaki’s high target price.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
Crypto World
Algorand Foundation cuts 25% of workforce amid crypto market downturn: Algorand Foundation
The Algorand Foundation has laid off a quarter of its staff, citing macroeconomic uncertainty and depressed crypto prices as conditions worsen across the industry.
The Algorand Foundation has cut 25% of its workforce due to macroeconomic uncertainty and lower cryptocurrency prices. The layoff at the organization behind the layer-1 Algorand blockchain reflects broader challenges facing the crypto sector as market conditions deteriorate.
The Algorand Foundation’s reduction joins a wave of workforce cuts sweeping through crypto and blockchain companies. Other major players including Blockchain.com, Optimism Labs, and Gemini Space Station have similarly announced 25% staff reductions, signaling sustained pressure on the industry as crypto prices remain depressed.
Sources: Algorand on X
This article was generated automatically by The Defiant’s AI news system from publicly available sources.
Bitcoin retraced about 7% after briefly touching the $76,000 mark earlier in the week, as a confluence of macro headlines trimmed risk appetite. A jump in oil prices tied to Middle East tensions and a hotter-than-expected producer price index added headwinds for risk assets, including equities. Yet optimism about the longer-term narrative persists: persistent spot-market demand, manageable leverage, and a potential rotation from gold could sustain the rally despite a near-term pullback.
Oil traded above $98 a barrel after reports of heightened tensions in the region, while the US producer price index rose more than expected, complicating the outlook for monetary policy. The S&P 500 remained within striking distance of its all-time highs just weeks earlier, even as recent US data showed some softness in the labor market. Against this backdrop, investors kept an eye on Bitcoin’s price action, viewing the move as a pause in momentum rather than a reversal of the bull case, particularly given how spot demand and institutional buying have shaped the market in recent weeks.
Key takeaways
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Spot market demand, reinforced by US-listed spot Bitcoin inflows and significant buying by strategy-minded investors, has helped sustain upwards momentum.
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Leverage in the Bitcoin long-side remains moderate, reducing the risk of cascading liquidations if prices slip further.
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Rising inflation concerns and weaker fixed-income returns are fueling a potential rotation from gold into Bitcoin over time.
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Derivative signals show bears are not flooding the market with excessive leverage; while funding rates have turned negative, they stay below historically aggressive levels, indicating a broader preference for cautious risk-taking.
Spot demand remains a stabilizing force
In recent sessions, Bitcoin’s move higher has been supported by a steady stream of demand from the spot market, rather than a heavy reliance on speculative leverage in the futures arena. Market observers pointed to ongoing accumulation inUS-listed spot-market products and notable buying activity by the Strategy group’s backers, highlighting a trend toward price discovery driven by real demand rather than purely synthetic liquidity. This dynamic is seen as a more durable underpinning for upside than a mere tilt toward derivatives-driven speculative bets.
Analysts also note that the immediate risk of a violent, cascading liquidation squeeze appears limited. Data on leveraged positions suggest traders are not collectively overexposed to bullish bets, even if Bitcoin tests lower levels in the near term. A hypothetical $450 million liquidation scenario tied to a move back toward the 68,000 area would still represent a small fraction of the overall open interest, reinforcing the view that current risk is more about price retries than systemic margin calls.
Macro backdrop and the path of policy
Although volatility has risen with energy prices and inflation concerns, the equity backdrop has not collapsed. The S&P 500 hovered within a short distance of record levels, while ongoing headlines around inflation and policy expectations shaped traders’ risk budgeting. The US 2-year Treasury yield stood around 3.71%, and inflation expectations from the Cleveland Fed around 2.27%, translating into a modestly positive carry for holders of cash and fixed income relative to the uncertain macro regime. In market terms, this environment tends to favor assets that can act as inflation hedges or portfolio diversifiers, which has historically been Bitcoin’s longer-run narrative for many participants.
Fed policy expectations also shifted. Volatility in rate outlooks was underscored by the CME FedWatch Tool, which indicated a sharp drop in odds of a near-term rate cut or hold, with probabilities of sustained rates by September moving from the mid-to-high range toward a tighter stance picture. In other words, the horizon for monetary support remains uncertain, nudging investors to consider hedges beyond traditional assets.
Derivatives signals and the risk outlook
From a derivatives perspective, negative funding rates for Bitcoin futures have been a feature of late, suggesting that shorts have paid to maintain positions and that bears may be more aggressive than the price action alone would imply. Yet, the funding rate has hovered below the neutral 6%–12% band even as Bitcoin traded above the previous highs, implying that the market’s buoyancy is being driven more by spot demand than margin-driven speculation. This nuance matters for risk managers and long-term holders alike, as it points to a steadier ascent rather than an abrupt, leverage-fueled ascent or collapse.
Industry trackers also highlight ongoing spot ETF activity. While inflows into spot product offerings can be lumpy, sustained accumulation supports a different dynamic than futures-only rallies, with investors signaling a willingness to own Bitcoin as a core asset rather than as a speculative bet on volatility alone.
Gold rotation and what it could mean for Bitcoin
Another angle traders are watching is the potential rotation away from gold as inflation pressures persist. Gold’s price action has shown signs of fatigue after a period of firmness, which could, over time, create room for Bitcoin to capture risk-off and risk-on demand that might otherwise have found a home in gold. While this is not a guaranteed path, the argument stands: if inflation remains stubborn and fixed-income alternatives underperform, Bitcoin could increasingly position itself as a diversifying asset in portfolios seeking inflation protection and asymmetric upside potential.
In the near term, the market will likely keep a close eye on both macro data and energy-price trajectories, as both have historically been proximate drivers of risk appetite and correlation patterns across assets. The balance between inflation signals, policy expectations, and real-world demand for Bitcoin will shape whether the current pullback evolves into a consolidation or a pause before renewed leg higher.
Related industry observations have underscored a broader sentiment among institutions: while interest in cryptocurrency exposure remains, investors are seeking more resilience in the face of macro uncertainty. The ongoing debate about how crypto assets fit within traditional portfolios—especially as a potential hedge against inflation—continues to inform how market participants allocate to Bitcoin in the months ahead.
What remains uncertain is how quickly spot-demand momentum translates into durable price gains, and whether external shocks—such as further geopolitical tensions or unexpected shifts in energy prices—could reintroduce volatility. Still, the current data points suggest Bitcoin’s upside is anchored less by speculative leverage and more by genuine demand from buyers who view it as a constructive component of a diversified, risk-managed crypto exposure.
Readers should watch for continued spot-market inflows, evolving ETF dynamics, and the macro data flow over the coming weeks to gauge whether Bitcoin can reclaim its recent highs or establish a new range as policy expectations firm up.
S&P Dow Jones Indices has licensed its S&P 500 Index to Trade[XYZ] for the launch of a perpetual futures contract on Hyperliquid, in what the company described as the first officially licensed onchain product offering continuous, leveraged exposure to the index for eligible non-US users.
According to Wednesday’s announcement, contract allows eligible non-US traders to take long or short positions on the index without an expiry date, with markets operating continuously outside traditional exchange hours using official index data from S&P Dow Jones Indices.
The contract also brings equity index exposure onto Hyperliquid, extending the use of perpetual derivatives beyond cryptocurrencies into traditional financial benchmarks.
Trade[XYZ] said its onchain markets have processed more than $100 billion in volume since October 2025, with an annualized run rate topping $600 billion.
The move comes after the index maker teamed with Centrifuge in July to bring the S&P 500 onchain through proof-of-index infrastructure and the launch of a tokenized index fund built on blockchain-based systems.
Related: Perp DEXs almost triple volume in 2025 as onchain derivatives mature
Crypto exchanges expand perpetual trading into traditional assets
Efforts to bring traditional financial markets into crypto are taking varied forms, including tokenized assets and perpetual derivatives tied to real-world markets.
In January, Binance launched “TradFi” perpetual contracts, offering USDT-settled derivatives linked to commodities such as gold and silver with 24/7, no-expiry trading. The following month, Kraken expanded the model to equities, introducing tokenized perpetual futures that provide leveraged exposure to US stock indexes, gold and specific companies.
Earlier this month, Coinbase said it would introduce round-the-clock trading for Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) futures in the US and expand into perpetual-style contracts.
At the same time, tokenized equities have grown steadily. Data from RWA.xyz shows total onchain value rising to about $1.09 billion from roughly $300 million at the start of 2025.
The market remains relatively concentrated, led by a mix of tokenized equities and exchange-traded products. Circle Internet Group accounts for about $136.8 million in value, followed by Exodus Movement at $83 million and Alphabet at $72.9 million, with Tesla and the iShares Silver Trust also among the largest holdings.
Magazine: Big Questions: Can Bitcoin save you from the dreaded Cantillon Effect?
A pseudonymous whale called Jason has built a 2,281 BTC short on Binance, now in multi‑million profit, extending a pattern of eerily well‑timed macro trades.
Summary
- On-chain sleuths say Jason holds a 2,281 BTC short on Binance at a $74,238 entry, sitting on roughly $4.2 million in unrealized profit with BTC near $72,467.
- The trader’s history includes perfectly timed shorts during prior market crashes and a reported $58.89 million loss, underscoring a high‑conviction, high‑risk strategy.
- Today’s bet lands as Bitcoin slides on Iran-linked Strait of Hormuz tensions and hotter‑than‑expected U.S. PPI, with analysts split on whether Jason is signal or noise.
A pseudonymous trader known online as Jason (@Jason60704294) is once again drawing scrutiny from on-chain analysts after data published Wednesday by blockchain sleuth @ai_9684xtpa revealed that Jason currently holds a short position of 2,281.09 BTC on Binance, with a nominal value of approximately $169 million and an opening average entry price of $74,238. With Bitcoin (BTC) trading around $72,467 at the time of monitoring — roughly 2.38% below Jason’s entry point — the position carries an unrealized floating profit of approximately $4.155 million.
The trade is not an isolated event. It is the latest chapter in a documented pattern that has made Jason one of the most closely tracked retail-sized whale accounts in crypto markets. According to on-chain analysis aggregated by Blockchain.news, Jason had just days earlier closed a long position with a profit of $14.668 million before pivoting sharply to the short side, opening an initial position of 28.48 BTC at an estimated entry price of around $74,210. Wednesday’s data confirms that position has since been substantially scaled up to over 2,281 BTC — a markedly more aggressive commitment.
Jason’s history adds considerable weight to the current trade. In August 2025, the trader opened short positions on BTC at $120,948 and on ETH at $4,712, positions that — if held — would have generated substantial returns as both assets declined sharply in subsequent months. Earlier, the trader had reportedly exited positions recording a $58.89 million loss, underscoring that the strategy carries real risk despite its headline-grabbing wins.
The timing of today’s short aligns with a broader market deterioration. Bitcoin has been under sustained pressure since late February, when U.S.-Israel military strikes on Iran triggered a Strait of Hormuz crisis that has since disrupted approximately 15% of global oil supply. Wednesday’s release of U.S. February PPI data — coming in at 0.7% month-on-month against a 0.3% forecast — compounded the risk-off sentiment, further dimming expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts that had previously underpinned crypto’s bull case.
It is worth noting the platform context. Jason’s current position is held on Binance, not on Hyperliquid, making real-time on-chain tracking of the exact account more difficult, as Odaily reported. The figures cited are derived from analyst monitoring of wallet behaviour and social media timestamps rather than direct smart contract reads. Nonetheless, the data is broadly consistent with Jason’s established trading fingerprint: high-conviction, concentrated directional bets placed at key technical inflection points.
Whether Wednesday’s short is prescient once again, or whether it becomes a cautionary tale in an eventual Bitcoin rebound, remains to be seen. What is clear is that a growing cohort of on-chain analysts are watching every move — and that in a market defined by opacity, Jason has become something of an unlikely signal in the noise.
The negative ETF streak finally came to an end, which is the first good sign for XRP.
Ripple’s native cross-border token was rejected at over $1.60 yesterday and has dropped by over 10% since that local peak to $1.45 as of press time.
Nevertheless, there are a couple of positive signs for its short-term price movements, including the reactivation of whale wallets.
2 Bullish Signs
The spot XRP ETFs in the United States had entered their worst streak in terms of consecutive daily net outflows (or lack of any flows) that lasted nearly two straight weeks – from March 5, when investors pulled out just over $6 million, to March 16, when the withdrawals were just shy of that number. In the meantime, there were two days with zero reportable activity.
However, that negative trend was finally broken yesterday as the funds attracted $4.64 million – the highest single-day figure since March 3. As such, the total net inflows have remained above $1.2 billion.
The second positive news for the XRP Army comes from whales. After a prolonged period of lack of any substantial activity, these large market participants have resumed their accumulation spree. Citing data from Santiment, Ali Martinez asserted that they have bought 200 million tokens in the past two weeks. In terms of USD, this stash is worth roughly $300 million at current prices.
200 million $XRP have been bought by whales in the last two weeks! pic.twitter.com/sMQNef3VZN
— Ali Charts (@alicharts) March 18, 2026
XRP Price Rejected
Yesterday’s positive net inflow day for the ETFs, aligned with the accumulation from whales and the overall market-wide resurgence, led to an impressive rally for XRP. The token surpassed BNB in terms of market cap after it jumped to a monthly high of around $1.63.
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Although analysts began praising the move and setting new big targets ahead, XRP was rejected at that point and driven south by over 10%. It currently struggles to remain above $1.45. This correction comes despite the recent expansion news from the company behind the asset, as well as the fact that the top traders on Binance have been “quietly buying XRP long positions,” according to data from popular analyst CW.
Binance top traders are quietly buying $XRP long positions. pic.twitter.com/01QV7hj7AC
— CW (@CW8900) March 18, 2026
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Additional reporting by Turner Wright.
The FTX Recovery Trust, which oversees the distribution of funds to creditors and former customers of the failed crypto exchange, announced on Wednesday that it will distribute $2.2 billion to creditors on March 31, 2026.
Eligible creditors will receive their funds through their chosen distribution provider within one to three business days, according to an announcement from the Trust.
The fourth distribution includes a 18% payout for Dotcom Customer claims, a 5% distribution for US Customer Entitlement Claims and a 15% distribution for both General Unsecured Claims and Digital Asset Loan Claims.
Convenience claims will receive a 120% reimbursement under the recovery plan, according to the announcement.
Following the fourth round of distributions, about $10 billion will have been paid out to creditors and former customers of the exchange. The fifth round of payments is scheduled for May 29, 2026, according to the trust.
The reimbursements could effect crypto prices in the short term if creditors and former customers of the FTX exchange, which collapsed in 2022, invest the recovery funds in digital assets.
Related: Court sets deadline for US to address Bankman-Fried’s new trial motion
FTX recovers billions in payouts, but creditors say it isn’t nearly enough
The FTX Recovery Estate began creditor payments in February 2025, with a $1.2 billion payment, followed by a $5 billion distribution the following May. The third round of creditor payments was distributed in September 2025 and totaled $1.6 billion.
Despite the billions of dollars recovered, creditors and former customers of the FTX exchange say they were short-changed by the recovery plan.
Creditors and former customers were reimbursed according to crypto asset values at the petition date in 2022, when legal action was taken against the exchange by creditors and customers.
Crypto asset values were much lower when the petition was filed, with Bitcoin (BTC) then trading at about $16,871, and Ether (ETH) at about $1,258.
“FTX creditors are not whole,” FTX creditor and creditor advocate Sunil Kavuri said in response to the reimbursement plan.
Convicted founder “SBF” pursues appeal, prison change
The latest effort to make victims whole comes amid appeal efforts by Sam “SBF” Bankman-Fried, the former CEO of FTX, who was sentenced to 25 years in prison following his 2023 conviction related to the misuse of customer funds.
He has posted to his X account using a proxy, often praising US President Donald Trump’s actions in the country’s conflict with Iran and his approach to regulating digital assets. Many experts speculate that the former CEO is lobbying the president for a pardon, but Trump reportedly said in January that he would not consider it.
As of Wednesday, Bankman-Fried was housed at the Federal Correctional Institution Terminal Island in the Los Angeles area. However, a Monday court filing by his mother claimed that he would be relocated “sometime in the next couple of weeks.”
Magazine: The $2,500 doco about FTX collapse on Amazon Prime… with help from mom
Crypto World
Smartest Ripple (XRP) Alternative? Smart Money Move To Taurux (TAUX) as Presale Surpasses $300K Raised
Sixty percent of XRP’s circulating supply is currently held at a cost basis above market price. That is 36.8 billion tokens sitting on a combined $50.8 billion in unrealized losses.
XRP trades at $1.51, down from its $3.65 all-time high reached in July 2025. Whales are buying into the pain: large wallets added 1.3 billion XRP in just 48 hours this month, and $738 million worth of tokens moved to cold storage in a single day. The smart money is accumulating while 60% of holders bleed. That dynamic tells you who controls the next move and who is along for the ride.
Passive holders hoping the whales will push the price past their cost basis are dependent on a group whose interests may not align with theirs. Taurox (TAUX) is a decentralized hedge fund where AI agents will trade pooled capital across DEXs and CEXs once the presale ends. Stakers keep 80% of net profits from strategies that generate returns regardless of any single token’s cost basis distribution.
What the High-Water Mark Means for Protecting Staker Gains
The high-water mark prevents agents from earning fees on recovery. If an agent generates $10,000 in profit, then loses $3,000, the creator earns nothing on the next $3,000 of gains. Performance fees only apply to net new highs above the previous peak. Recovery is free for stakers. This eliminates the classic fund problem where managers collect fresh fees while clawing back to breakeven.
Agents that consistently fail to reach new highs lose capital allocation through Sharpe-weighted rebalancing. Capital flows away gradually as performance declines. No forced liquidation. Stakers keep 80% of net gains at the standard tier. The protocol takes 5% on profits only, with 30% burned permanently and 70% flowing to the DAO treasury. Sixty percent of XRP holders are underwater with no mechanism preventing further decline.
Taurox stakers benefit from a high-water mark that ensures they never pay for an agent’s mistakes twice. One position has a $50.8 billion loss overhang with no structural protection against further decline. The other has protocol-level safeguards that ensure stakers never subsidize an agent’s recovery from losses. That difference is architectural, not speculative.
Phase 2 Fills While 60% of XRP Holders Wait to Break Even
Phase 1 of the TAUX presale sold out in under 24 hours at $0.01. Phase 1 buyers are already up 20% at Phase 2’s price of $0.012, without staking or seeing an agent trade pool capital. The presale has raised $314.7K, and Phase 2 is 23.9% filled. Nineteen phases run from $0.01 to $0.07, each closing permanently once its allocation sells out. The price steps up and the previous entry vanishes forever. Staking activates at the end of the presale, and agents begin trading once the pool goes live.
XRP holders sitting on $50.8 billion in unrealized losses need the price to more than double just to break even. The TAUX presale is pricing in forward value before the pool even activates. The buyers entering Phase 2 right now are not waiting to recover from losses.
They are positioning before agents begin trading. Every token sold at $0.012 brings Phase 2 closer to closing permanently. The window is narrowing in real time, and the cost of hesitation is a permanently higher price tier. Waiting costs real money when phases close and the entry steps up with no exceptions.
Phase 2 Entry and Upside Math
Phase 2 is live at $0.012. Listing at $0.08 is a 6.67x return before the pool produces any profit. A $1 post-listing target is x83 from the current price. At a $1 billion pool with 30% gross returns, implied price reaches $1.85, or x154 from today’s entry. The protocol charges 5% on gross profits only. No management fees at any tier. Thirty percent of collected fees are burned permanently. Supply is locked at 2 billion tokens, non-mintable.
XRP has $50.8 billion in underwater positions. The TAUX presale has $314.7K from buyers who entered at the ground floor. Every profitable trade by agents will compress supply further through the burn mechanism. Phase 2 will not survive the same demand that emptied Phase 1 in a single day.
Learn More
Buy TAUX: https://taurox.io/
Whitepaper: https://docs.taurox.io/
Official Telegram: https://t.me/tauroxlabs
The post Smartest Ripple (XRP) Alternative? Smart Money Move To Taurux (TAUX) as Presale Surpasses $300K Raised appeared first on Blockonomi.
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