Politics
Reassessing Europe’s security strategy – UK in a changing Europe
Zeno Leoni, Benjamin Jones, Sarah Tzinieris, Bence Nemeth, Michele Groppi, and Zoha Naser summarise their recent report* on European security. They offer four recommendations on how to increase European resilience and defence capabilities in light of geopolitical crises and the unreliability of the US as an ally.
For decades, European security has rested on a simple assumption: that the United States would ultimately step in to defend the continent. Today that assumption is becoming harder to sustain. Developments in Washington, combined with wider shifts in global politics, mean that European governments increasingly need to prepare for a future in which American support may be limited, conditional, or slow. This requires European countries to increase resilience to achieve strategic autonomy. This remains challenging in the short term.
Calls in Washington for Europeans to shoulder more of the defence burden are not new. Successive US administrations have said this for years – in 2011 Secretary of Defence Robert Gates referred to NATO as a two-tiered alliance, one providing ‘soft’ capabilities and one ‘hard’ capabilities. But the tone and method have changed.
The Trump administration relies on pressure in its dealings with allies. Even if this approach is intended as a negotiating strategy – seeking concessions through cycles of escalation and de-escalation rather than a disruption tout court of NATO – it generates uncertainty among allies. At the same time, US strategic documents continue to underline the importance of alliances, and Congress has introduced legal constraints that would make a formal withdrawal from NATO difficult. These factors suggest that influential pro-alliance forces remain alive within the broader American political system.
Still, assuming that the current period of uncertainty will simply pass once the Trump presidency ends would be risky. Debates in the United States about overseas commitments run deeper than any single administration. While US grand strategy increasingly emphasises projecting military power and influence from the seas, with limited interventions – a foundational element of many American strategies since the end of the Second World War – this administration is more strongly influenced by domestic political developments than its predecessors.
In response to the changed geopolitical environment, defence spending across the continent is rising, and several governments have announced major rearmament plans. But spending more money may not by itself solve the underlying problem. Many of the capabilities required for modern military operations – from intelligence and surveillance to space assets and advanced command systems – remain heavily dependent on the United States. These capabilities are expensive and complex, taking time to develop. Europe’s reliance on American support cannot be eliminated quickly.
Institutional fragmentation also complicates the picture. European defence efforts operate through multiple frameworks, including NATO and the EU, while national procurement systems remain largely separate. Greater coordination is clearly needed, but deeper cooperation can also slow decision-making and complicate procurement. Debates about European “strategic autonomy” have emerged partly in response to these challenges. Yet the concept itself remains politically sensitive and somewhat ambiguous. For some, it appears to suggest distancing Europe from the United States or weakening NATO. In reality, the issue is more practical than ideological. In the near future, the goal is not to replace NATO or to detach Europe from the transatlantic alliance. Rather, it is to ensure that European countries have enough capability to act with limited US support.
In near term, four recommendations should be considered.
The first step is to move away from a “D-Day mentality” and recognise that long-standing assumptions about automatic US intervention are no longer sufficient for planning. However, while strategic autonomy remains controversial, framing efforts around resilience rather than strategic autonomy may prove politically more productive and less sensitive. Building resilience means identifying capability gaps that could emerge if US support were limited and gradually working to fill them, while maintaining transatlantic ties. Diversifying partnerships beyond the Euro-Atlantic space will also become increasingly important, including deeper cooperation with countries such as Japan, Australia, and India.
Operationally, European security should adopt a strategy of flexibility to have more options. NATO will remain the central framework for collective defence, but practical initiatives will increasingly emerge through smaller coalitions capable of acting quickly when necessary. Coalitions of the willing of various geometries – including EU+ frameworks that allow non-EU members to participate or exclude some EU members– are likely to allow Europeans to react to Trump’s pressure. These arrangements could remain anchored to NATO standards while preserving the flexibility needed to respond to fast-moving crises. In other words, multilateral institutions remain essential, but smaller coalitions of countries are often better placed to move quickly.
In procurement, Europe should prioritise the ability to integrate quickly when required. Investments should focus on speed, scale and usability rather than technological sophistication alone, with greater emphasis on training, standardisation and interoperability. Defence systems should also be designed with future cooperation in mind, allowing integration when needed rather than treating it as an immediate objective. This will also require clearer signals from politics to the defence industry. Governments need to provide more credible long-term commitments if companies are to expand production capacity and invest in new technologies; but also intervene more profoundly to keep energy costs low and support manufacturing. Without addressing the energy–industry nexus, efforts to expand manufacturing and defence output will remain structurally constrained.
While strategic autonomy remains a longer-term ambition, the immediate goal should be to strengthen European resilience to buy Europe time while expanding its strategic options.
By Dr Zeno Leoni, Lecturer, Defence Studies Department, King’s College London at the Joint Services Command and Staff College of the UK; Dr Bence Nemeth, Senior Lecturer, Defence Studies Department, King’s College London at the Joint Services Command and Staff College of the UK; Dr Benjamin Jones, Teaching Fellow, Department of European and International Studies, King’s College London; Dr Sarah Tzinieris, Lecturer, Defence Studies Department, King’s College London at the Joint Services Command and Staff College of the UK; Dr Zoha Naser, PhD Candidate, Department of War Studies, King’s College London; and Dr Michele Groppi, Senior Lecturer, Defence Studies Department, King’s College London at the Joint Services Command and Staff College of the UK.
*This commentary summarises findings from a wider report produced at King’s College London. The report consolidates recent research and insights from a confidential Track 1.5 dialogue held at King’s College London in early January. The research was supported by the New Government Fund of the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC), administered by King’s College London.
Contact: Dr Zeno Leoni – [email protected]
The Tories were left looking rather embarrassed today after a “best bits” compilation video of Kemi Badenoch played nothing at all.
Shadow local government secretary James Cleverly tried to launch the Conservatives’ local elections campaign by lauding the party leader’s “vim and vigour” – but a technical glitch turned it into a moment they’d rather forget.
Shortly before introducing Badenoch on stage, Cleverly told the waiting audience: “Just in case anyone has forgotten just how good she is, let’s remind ourselves with a quick look at her best bits.”
A few people in the audience excitedly declared that this clip was obviously “going to be long” as the screen briefly flashed up with the Conservatives’ slogans.
But it quickly went black. It then showed the Tory pledge to implement a “stronger economy and a stronger country” once more – before Cleverly started to give up.
“I’m going to give it… one more second…for the video,” he said, then adding: “Do you know what ladies and gentlemen? Forget the video.”
He then welcomed Badenoch onto the stage, who laughed at all the enthusiastic applause.
“That was a fabulous introduction, can we give it up to James Cleverly?” she said, pushing past the embarrassing encounter.
In the 16 months since she was elected to be Tory leader and leader of the opposition, Badenoch has been widely criticised for her performance.
Trying to carry the mantel after the Conservatives’ worst ever general election defeat, Badenoch struggled to hold her own in prime ministers’ questions and made a handful of very public – and painful – gaffes.
She’s also seen a series of ex-Tory MPs defect to Reform, including two of her own frontbenchers, Danny Kruger and Robert Jenrick.
The Confederation of African Football’s historic decision to award Morocco the Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) title has brought their head coach, Walid Regragui, back into the spotlight.
Does this open the door for his return after he resigned just weeks before the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Regragui’s name is once again making headlines. This follows the appeal over Morocco’s controversial match with Senegal.
In case you missed it, Senegal has been stripped of its AFCON title, which was handed to Morocco on 18 March.
The decision has shocked the sporting world and stunned international spectators. Senegal’s 1-0 victory over Morocco on 18 January was overturned by AFCON. Now, the match is officially recorded as a 3-0 win for Morocco.
Could Regragui make a comeback?
Before these events unfolded, Regragui’s resignation on 5 March seemed directly tied to his team’s loss to Senegal on Moroccan soil. With the 2026 World Cup around the corner, Mohamed Wahbi has taken over as head coach.
At the time, the defeat dampened the shine of his otherwise impressive tenure. Under his leadership, Morocco reached the semi-finals of the 2022 World Cup and made it to the final of AFCON.
Now, many are asking whether Regragui’s departure was hasty.
Regragui, in the wake of AFCON’s appeal decision, has found himself elevated to national hero status in Morocco and the wider Arab world.
While Morocco’s title has been reinstated, will this be enough to bring Regragui back to his former role?
The court of public opinion
The Canary has observed growing calls on social media for Regragui’s return. Many point out that the former Atlas Lions coach has yet to secure his next coaching contract.
Despite Wahbi’s appointment as head coach, his strong relationship with Regragui leaves room for various possibilities. This includes a potential collaboration or a future reevaluation of the team’s leadership and priorities.
However, with just two months to go until the World Cup, both options seem unlikely and are largely fuelled by the excitement of Morocco’s delayed victory.
A critical juncture for the Atlas Lions
With the 2026 World Cup fast approaching, Morocco’s national team faces a critical juncture. On one hand, they need to build on the momentum of their reinstated AFCON title.
On the other, they must quickly establish stability in both leadership and football strategy.
Whether this will happen under Wahbi’s or Regragui’s leadership remains uncertain, as the fervour for the former coach’s reinstatement crescendos both online and offline.
Featured image via the Canary
Multivitamins might help to slow biological ageing, new research has found.
Published in Nature Medicine, the paper noted that these effects were stronger in people whose biological age (which relates to the health of their cells and tissues) was already older than their chronological age (how many years old they are).
On average, older people who took a multivitamin supplement daily had a biological age four months younger than those who didn’t.
What else did the study find?
The researchers looked at blood samples from just under 1,000 participants of the US’ COSMOS study – a randomised, double-blind trial.
Participants had an average age of 70. Some people took multivitamins, and others didn’t.
Blood samples were taken three times: at the start of the study, and 12 and 24 months after that.
The scientists calculated the biological age of the people in the research by looking for five biological ageing “clocks” in their blood.
These “clocks” had to do with the patterns on DNA, changes in which have been linked to a person’s ageing.
After comparing the blood samples, the researchers noted that people who took daily multivitamins showed signs of slower ageing in two of these “clocks”, which were associated with mortality risk.
Speaking to Nature, study author Howard Sesso said research like this is “not just identifying how to live longer, but also how to live better”.
He noted taking multivitamins “appeared to be on that type of trajectory over two years”.
Does that mean multivitamins will definitely keep me younger?
We don’t know for sure, yet.
The paper said that though “statistically significant but small effects of daily MVM [multivitamin] supplementation on slowing biological ageing are encouraging”, additional studies are needed to explore this further.
Still, speaking to Nature, geroscientist Steve Hovarth (who was not involved in the study), said: “This is a very interesting and rigorous study… The public appetite for knowing whether everyday supplements can genuinely slow ageing is enormous.
“This study provides some of the most credible evidence we have to date.”
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Edward Davies is Research Director at the Centre for Social Justice.
Motherhood was much in the news this week.
It kicked off with a flurry of last-minute chocolate and daffodil purchasing by the nation’s offspring on Sunday morning. And hot on the heels of Mothering Sunday came Jessie’s Buckley’s Oscar acceptance speech in which she dedicated the honour “to the beautiful chaos of a mother’s heart”.
We at the CSJ also launched a report that found that 600,000 women would miss out on their ambitions of motherhood due to the falling birthrate and that three million women aged 16 to 45 today are projected not to have children if current trends persist.
But for all undoubted importance of motherhood and the human pathos of these three events, the last in particular signals something far greater and more concerning.
The UK’s fertility decline is often framed as a motherhood issue largely because that is how it is measured – births per woman. But it is far from that alone.
The ripples of our declining birthrate travel far and wide. It’s felt by fathers too of course – it takes two to tango after all. And it’s felt by siblings, uncles, and aunts. It impacts grandparents and communities too as the population gets older and older.
They are a few years further down this road than us in Japan but during the first half of 2024, 40,000 people died alone in their home. Of that number, nearly 4,000 people were discovered more than a month after they died, and 130 bodies went unmissed for a year before they were found.
We all depend on the relationships in our lives, right up to, and even beyond our deaths.
This has huge societal effects too, not least on public services. As Japan has discovered, it is not cheap or easy for the state to reproduce what families have traditionally done for millennia. Our social care sector is already groaning under the weight.
But a medic colleague working on doctors’ contracts used to joke to me that the most sensitive nerve in the body is the wallet nerve and it is maybe our economy where we will feel the pinch hardest.
The Office for Budget Responsibility has said that, on current trends, UK public debt could rise to around 270 per cent of GDP by the early 2070s as ageing pushes up spending on pensions, health and social care.
To maintain our current economy and standard of living with a declining population would require unprecedented and improbable productivity increases. When they fail to materialise, we will have to make significant cuts and perhaps the one hard aging-related lever governments have to play with is the pension age.
The CSJ’s analysis shows that on current population estimates children in school today could face working until their mid-70s before receiving a state pension.
If the government attempted to maintain today’s ratio of workers to pensioners, the state pension age would need to rise steadily over the coming years, hitting 70 in the next three decades, and 75 well before the end of the century – that means children aged 8 and under today would not retire until they are 75.
Figures like this understandably provoke a response, particularly among those approaching pension age themselves. But we literally cannot afford to bury our metaphorical heads in the sand over this. Other countries with similar problems are grasping the nettle. Denmark for example recently passed legislation which will raise the retirement age to 70 by the year 2040 – not that far away. By 2060 it will likely rise to 74. Italy and Estonia are set to follow at 71, while the Netherlands, Sweden, and Cyprus are projected to reach 70.
To date, received wisdom in the UK has been to replace the human shortfall with imported labour – high immigration. But not only is it a strategy with declining public support, but it does not really work. High levels of immigration have marginally and temporarily slowed the demographic shift but they do not solve the underlying problem, as age and fertility rates among migrants also tend to fall over time. In short, migrants get old and stop having babies too.
Political capital to have these conversations is in short supply and so huge credit to shadow equalities minister Rt Hon Claire Coutinho MP, who is one of the first senior parliamentarians to put her head above the parapet in this debate. Writing the foreword to the CSJ report she does not shy away from hard questions.
She describes our falling birthrate as “one of the most significant yet least discussed challenges our country faces today”.
“A healthy society depends on its ability not only to preserve what it has inherited, but to pass it on. The institutions, freedoms and traditions that make us who we are were built up over centuries, and their continuation cannot be taken for granted. If we rely on making up the population shortfall with ever higher immigration, then we may risk losing more than we bargained for.
“If we want to be proud of passing on something of importance to the next generation then we must never lose sight of the importance of family.”
Donald Trump’s second administration has massively tightened the longstanding US stranglehold on Cuba. His escalating campaign of terror has brought the island’s health system to its knees, putting thousands of lives at risk. But many people around the world are refusing to just stand by and watch.
In recent days, Trump has insisted that:
I do believe I’ll be… having the honour of taking Cuba… Taking Cuba, I mean, whether I free it, take it. I think I can do anything I want with it.
And he’s promised that:
we’ll be doing something with Cuba very soon
Numerous social movements, humanitarian groups, trade unionists, and public figures have stepped up to try and scupper Trump’s plans, though.
These groups and individuals have built a coalition to send humanitarian supplies to Cuba, including medicine, food, and solar equipment. In particular, this aid seeks to support medical workers and their patients, while ensuring children have access to vital nutrition.
The first of the venture from the ‘Nuestra América Convoy‘ has already arrived on the island. And more will arrive in the coming days:
BREAKING 🇨🇺 The first delegation of the Nuestra América Convoy arrives to Havana. pic.twitter.com/WEaln5H84S
— Progressive International (@ProgIntl) March 18, 2026
¡Qué viva Cuba! 🇨🇺
The first delegation of the Nuestra América Convoy has arrived in Havana from Europe, carrying more than four tonnes of critical medical aid. pic.twitter.com/nFhQ74B2X2
— Progressive International (@ProgIntl) March 18, 2026
🇨🇺✊🏽 ¡Ya está en Cuba el Convoy Europeo con ayuda solidaria proveniente de Italia!
Un puente de esperanza que une pueblos y fortalece la solidaridad.
📷 Jorge Alejandro
✍️Tomado de Naturaleza Secreta de Cuba
#NuestraAmericaConvoy pic.twitter.com/jE5AlDg08G— Mov. Mexicano de Solidaridad con Cuba 🇲🇽🇨🇺 (@_mmsc) March 18, 2026
Trump’s escalating stranglehold on Cuba
More than six decades of US “economic terrorism” have cost Cuba over $170bn. They haven’t just pushed people to leave their country. According to experts, such sanctions also have a similar effect to war, killing hundreds of thousands of people around the world every year, with many millions of deaths over recent decades.
Amid the ongoing failure of sanctions to topple Cuba’s government, the US started to change strategies under Barack Obama. But Trump’s first administration reversed that and doubled down on aggression.
Then, in 2025, Trump came into his second term seeking to ramp up this stranglehold with a new escalation of collective punishment. This has since sparked a crisis in Cuba’s health system, bringing it “to the brink of collapse”. And it has just forced a 29-hour nationwide energy blackout.
So far this year, Trump’s regime has gone after Cuba’s key lifelines:
Global criticism of US terror must turn into action
Nations around the world have overwhelmingly opposed US sanctions on Cuba for decades, regardless of whether their governments are left- or right-wing. Ordinary people in the US itself, meanwhile, strongly oppose using force against Cuba. They prefer diplomacy, and generally agree that sanctions are the wrong strategy.
Moving from criticism to action is not easy, and rarely happens. But the Nuestra América Convoy offers hope that people are increasingly willing to follow through:
As Donald Trump’s illegal siege plunges Cuba into darkness, the first convoy flight leaves from Milan.
On board: 220 suitcases packed with life-saving medicines. pic.twitter.com/rVNSmPEpWL
— Progressive International (@ProgIntl) March 17, 2026
We deeply appreciate @JeremyCorbyn and @ProgIntl for standing with the Cuban people. As the US escalates its cruel and inhumane blockade, global solidarity is our greatest weapon. We eagerly await the historic Nuestra América Convoy in Havana on March 21. Cuba is not alone! 🇨🇺 https://t.co/BGEARsYBSs
— Cuba in the UK (@EmbaCuba_UK) March 18, 2026
ANNOUNCEMENT 📢: NACLA is mobilizing to Cuba. 🇨🇺
This week, NACLISTAs will be taking part in the Nuestra América Convoy to Cuba, a humanitarian mission delivering critical supplies to a people under siege.
For decades, NACLA has covered the U.S. pressure campaign against… pic.twitter.com/gfrirkGFyN
— NACLA Report (@NACLA) March 17, 2026
We’re busy packing suitcases of medical aid to bring to Cuba tomorrow. 🇮🇪 🇨🇺
GRMA to all who’ve assisted us source it (special thanks to Dr David Hickey).
The USA is illegally and savagely strangling the island and crippling its people. pic.twitter.com/EzIgQOgqda
— KNEECAP (@KNEECAPCEOL) March 17, 2026
We head to Cuba later this week as part of an international solidarity group to bring critical medical aid for the Cuban people. 🇨🇺 🇮🇪
To everyone who has assisted us gathering it, GRMA, we will travel with over 200kg of critical medicines.
As the Taoiseach heads to… pic.twitter.com/F1MdrWAgPI
— KNEECAP (@KNEECAPCEOL) March 16, 2026
Opposing Trump’s terror campaign against Cuba isn’t about whether you completely support its government or not. As with US-Israeli war crimes in Gaza, Iran, or Lebanon, it’s completely possible to oppose colonial violation of international law while also being fully aware of legitimate criticisms regarding the governments facing attacks.
The simple fact is that the US is using terror to ensure dominance for itself in the Americas (as it has for many decades), just as it’s been helping Israel to ensure its dominance in the Middle East through genocidal terror.
Trump is proudly displaying a brash imperialism that US leaders have historically hidden behind careful propaganda. And the world is increasingly aware of the danger of allowing this to continue.
But words aren’t enough. The world must also follow the example of the Nuestra América Convoy and turn criticism into firm action – for the sake of humanity.
Featured image via the Canary
As it promised on Wednesday 18 March, Iran struck Saudi energy facilities in retaliation for Israel’s bombing of Iran’s South Pars gas field, which it shares with Qatar, also a US ally in the Arabian Gulf.
The Iranian television broadcast its warning across social media channels, telling the US, Israel, and their enablers that their facilities will be reduced to “ashes.”
Iran military spokesman: “You attacked our infrastructure and energy in the south. Your infrastructure, energy, and gas facilities will burn to ashes at the first opportunity. Your era of glory is over — withdraw from the region or choose death.” pic.twitter.com/8i5KGPlDdD
— COMBATE |🇵🇷 (@upholdreality) March 18, 2026
The latest strikes began as soon as night fell:
Public Relations of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps:
🔹 In the name of God, the Crusher of the Arrogant “Whoever transgresses against you, transgress against them in like manner as they transgressed against you”
🔹 Wave sixty-three of Operation True Promise 4 against… pic.twitter.com/wntAb6R0fU
— COMBATE |🇵🇷 (@upholdreality) March 18, 2026
Mobile footage published by social-media based news outlet, Kofiya News, shows a huge explosion at a refinery near Riyadh as an Iranian missile struck:
🚨🇮🇷🇸🇦 BREAKING: A massive explosion has occurred in Riyadh after multiple ballistic missiles launched from Iran struck the city. pic.twitter.com/9GrMkbWF19
— Nova Intel (@intel_nova) March 18, 2026
The aftermath of the strike was shared by Kofiya News:
💢 4 injured in Riyadh after “debris from an intercepted ballistic missile” fell near refinery, Saudi Arabia claims
Four foreign Asian residents were injured and “limited material damage” reported after Saudi Civil Defense said debris from an intercepted ballistic missile fell… https://t.co/q25Cvl5bkb pic.twitter.com/J5mur9D0w4
— Drop Site (@DropSiteNews) March 18, 2026
Qatari gas facilities were struck in the early hours of 19 March, local time:
Qatar LNG is on fire pic.twitter.com/uRKzzo3pGA
— COMBATE |🇵🇷 (@upholdreality) March 18, 2026
A mass retaliatory attack on Israel and its Haifa oil terminal has not yet been reported at the time of writing, although a repeat of last night’s mass—and largely censored—attack is surely imminent:
WATCH: Iranian Khorramshahr ballistic missiles with ~80 bomblets targeting Israel tonight. pic.twitter.com/HVVXkQ1FZf
— Clash Report (@clashreport) March 17, 2026
The situation continues to develop rapidly.
Featured image via the Canary
In the three weeks since Donald Trump and Israel first started bombing Iran, the Tehran regime has been targeting energy sites across the Middle East in retaliation.
It has also effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, a major oil shipping lane, by attacking any oil tankers which attempt to pass through the waterway.
The conflict has sent international markets into a tailspin and pushed the cost of oil up to almost $110 a barrel.
This latest attack on a gas field has also increased gas prices by more than 25% – more than double the levels seen before the war began.
Here’s what you need to know.
What Happened?
Hours after killing Tehran’s intelligence minister and launching some of the most intense airstrikes in Beirut for decades, Israel hit the South Pars natural gas field on Wednesday, escalating its growing conflict with Iran.
The world’s largest natural gas site, located in the Persian Gulf, it is shared between Iran and Qatar.
Qatar is a close ally of the US and a host of the US largest military base in the Gulf.
Trump announced overnight that Israel had “violently lashed out” and targeted the major Iranian gas field in rage over what Tehran is doing in the region.
Iran condemned the strike and its president Masoud Pezeshkian warned of “uncontrollable consequences” which could “engulf the entire world”.
It then turned its fire on neighbouring energy facilities in the Gulf.
Saudi Arabia said it managed to intercept and destroy four ballistic missiles which were heading towards its capital Riyadh, presumably from Iran, and claimed more drones were intercepted and destroyed.
Meanwhile, State oil giant QatarEnergy reported “extensive damage” after Iranian missiles hit the Ras Laffan Industrial City, which processes around a fifth of global gas supply.
The Habshan gas facilities and Bab field in the United Arab Emirates were also targeted and have since been shut down after interceptions over the major sites.
The UAE said Iran’s retaliatory strikes were a “dangerous escalation” and have ordered Iranian embassy officials to leave the country.
SYLVIE HUSSON,SABRINA BLANCHARD via AFP via Getty Images
What Does This Have To Do With Trump?
The US president insisted that the US did not have advance warning of the Israeli strike and also that Qatar was not involved.
In a post on TruthSocial, he wrote: “Israel out of anger for what has taken place in the Middle East, has violently lasted out a major facility known as South Pars Gas Field in Iran.
“Unfortunately, Iran did not know this, or any of the pertinent facts pertaining to the South Pars attack, and was unjustifiably and unfairly attacked a portion of Qatar’s LNG Gas facility.”
But the Wall Street Journal reported that Trump did approve of Israel’s plan, according to US officials.
The president was reportedly hoping to pressure Tehran into unblocking the Strait of Hormuz with the attack.
But Trump has insisted that Israel would not make any further such attacks unless Tehran hits back – while claiming the US will “blow up the entirety of the South Pars Gas Field” if Iran does retaliate.
What Does This Mean For Other Countries In The Gulf?
For many in the region, this feels like a seismic moment in the conflict as neighbouring nations feel more under threat than before.
Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea port of Yanbu, the only export outlet for many local countries’ crude oil, was also hit by an aerial attack on Thursday.
The country made it clear overnight that it reserves the “right to take military action” over Iran’s attacks.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps have also sent an evacuation warning to several oil facilities across Saudi Arbaia, UAE and Qatar.
How Does This Impact The Rest Of The World?
In Europe, natural gas prices have already climbed by 35% since Thursday’s attack.
Gas prices overall have increased by more than 60% since the war began less than three weeks ago.
Brent crude, which is the international benchmark oil price, have jumped from $73 to around around $108 a barrel as of Wednesday – and every $10 increase pushes up pump prices by around 7p a litre.
This will impact the cost of living, though there is normally a time lag as prices trickle through to customers.
EU leaders are keen to curb the jump in energy prices and are meeting this week to discuss how to migitate the coming crisis.
There’s the human cost to consider, too.
More than 3,000 people have been killed in Iran since the conflict started, according to the US-based Iran human rights group HRANA.
Local authorities say approximately 900 people have been killed in Lebanon, and 800,000 forced to flee their homes.
Iranian attacks have also killed people in Iraq and across the Gulf states. At least 13 US military service members have been killed in the war.
What Might Happen Next?
Trump claimed Israel would not make any further such attacks unless Tehran hit back.
In his TruthSocial post, the president claimed: “NO MORE ATTACKS WILL BE MADE BY ISRAEL pertaining to this extremely important and valuable South Pars Field unless Iran unwisely decides to attack a very innocent, in this case, Qatar.
“In which instance the United States of America, with or without the help or consent of Israel, will massively blow up the entirety of the South Pars Gas Field at an amount of strength and power that Iran has never seen or witnessed before.”
However he is also thinking about sending thousands more US troops to the Middle East according to reports from Reuters, possibly to help oil tankers move through the Strait of Hormuz.
Politics
Political operatives with Trump ties raked in millions of dollars in commissions from DHS ad campaign
Two companies with ties to veteran political operatives received at least $23 million in commissions for their role in the controversial Department of Homeland Security ad campaign that helped lead to Secretary Kristi Noem’s ouster.
One of the firms, Safe America Media, received at least $15.2 million and was formed last February just a few days before it was awarded the limited-bid contract to work on the overall $220 million, taxpayer-funded ad campaign, according to an internal DHS memo and three people familiar with the contracts who were granted anonymity because they weren’t authorized to speak publicly about the contracts. Safe America Media was run by Republican operatives Mike McElwain and Patrick McCarthy, who have ties to a firm that did extensive media buying on President Donald Trump’s 2024 campaign.
The second firm, People Who Think, received at least $7.7 million from its 10 percent commission on a portion of the $220 million, according to the memo, which was written by DHS Deputy Under Secretary for Management Paul Stackhouse, and reviewed by POLITICO. People Who Think was co-founded by Jay Connaughton, who did work for Trump’s 2016 campaign and has reportedly worked for other conservative politicians and causes.
The March 3 DHS memo noted there was only a “limited competition” for the awarded contracts because of the “urgent and compelling need” for the ad campaign. It also stated that People Who Think’s 10 percent commission for international advertising and Safe America Media’s 12 percent commission for domestic advertising was below the industry norm of 15 percent.
Besides military recruiting efforts and Covid-19-related campaigns, the DHS ads were the most expensive U.S. government marketing campaign in the last 10 years, Bloomberg reported.
The information about the contracts add new details to the ongoing fallout over DHS’s $220 million ad campaign, which included a video of a cowboy-hat clad Noem riding a horse at Mount Rushmore. It also highlights how political operatives were awarded contracts worth millions of dollars with seemingly little oversight or guardrails — including from President Donald Trump, who White House officials have said did not sign off on the ad campaign.
The ads became a sore spot within the White House, including with Trump, because they fed into a perception that Noem used her position to set herself up for a future political run.
“Safe America Media submitted a proposal for and was awarded a contract to support DHS’s nationwide public awareness campaign, and committed substantial resources to meet an accelerated timeline on budget,” Safe America Media lawyer Joseph Folio said in a statement to POLITICO. “We look forward to providing additional information to address inaccuracies in the public reporting and ensure the record accurately reflects the scope and context of that work.” It’s unclear what he is referring to and a spokesperson didn’t respond to a follow-up question.
McCarthy, McElwain and Connaughton didn’t respond to requests for comment and People Who Think could not be reached for comment. A spokesperson for DHS declined to comment.
Republican Sens. Thom Tillis of North Carolina and John Kennedy of Louisiana, along with Democrats, grilled Noem when she testified before Congress in early March about the DHS ad campaign. At one point during the hearing, a clearly frustrated Tillis threatened to halt all Senate business if Noem refused to provide information about immigration enforcement in his home state, while Kennedy probed Noem about the ads and derided them for only being “effective in your name recognition.”
Noem has defended the campaign by saying the ads helped encourage two million immigrants to self-deport and thus saved billions of dollars.
Noem was also asked during the hearing about the Strategy Group,which worked to make some of the ads for Safe America Media. The Strategy Group is run by Ben Yoho, the husband of Noem’s former right-hand communications aide Tricia McLaughlin. McLaughlin has said she recused herself from the campaign, and DHS general counsel James Percival has backed her up publicly on questions about the matter and said she was not involved in selecting subcontractors.
In a response to inquiries from Sens. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) and Peter Welch (D-Vt.), both members of the Senate Homeland Security Committee, Yoho said his company was only hired as a subcontractor by Safe America Media for ad production worth $226,000.
Asked about his role in this ad campaign, Yoho referred POLITICO to the letter.
Welch’s office told POLITICO that they have talked with legal representatives for People Who Think and Safe America Media but have not yet received responses to their questions. They said they expect to hear from them soon.
Safe America Media LLC placed some of the DHS ads through Strategic Media Services Inc., which received more than $269 million from Trump’s campaign in 2024, according to FEC records. SMS used the same office address on corporate registrations between 2013 and 2021 as Designated Market Media Inc., which McElwain is the president of.
SMS didn’t respond to a request for comment.
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