Crypto World
Evernorth unveils 473 million XRP treasury and DeFi-focused fund monetization strategy
Evernorth Holdings, an XRP treasury company going public through a SPAC merger, disclosed in a new S-4 filing that it and Pathfinder Digital Assets held about 473.1 million XRP as of the end of last year.
The document also gives investors a clearer look at how that position was built. Evernorth said it used $214.1 million in cash to acquire 84.4 million XRP, which works out to about $2.54 per token for that portion of the treasury. XRP is currently trading at $1.45, or down about 35% from the average purchase price.
The filing also points to a $233.7 million digital asset impairment for 2025 under U.S. accounting rules, reflecting the gap between purchase prices and lower market values at the reporting date.
The filing also shows the treasury did not come only from open-market buying. Ripple, a major player in the XRP ecosystem, contributed 126.8 million XRP to Pathfinder under a contribution agreement.
The sponsor separately contributed 211.3 million XRP through a Series C subscription tied to the broader deal, the filing shows.
Evernorth says it wants to actively manage its treasury rather than simply holding XRP and waiting for the token to rise. The S-4 says the company plans to use Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin in XRP-based decentralized finance activity, including RLUSD/XRP liquidity pools.
It also expects to lend XRP, provide automated market-maker liquidity, and run options strategies, such as covered calls and cash-secured puts, to further monetize the company’s treasury.
TLDR
- Cardano expects the Node 10.7.0 Target prerelease within days as part of Protocol 11 preparations.
- Node 10.7.0 serves as one of the required releases for the van Rossem hard fork.
- Developers will integrate the new node into ecosystem tools and conduct performance testing.
- Version 10.7.x will transition to version 11 to fork the Preview and PreProd testnets.
- The Protocol 11 upgrade introduces new Plutus built-ins, including CIP-138 and CIP-153.
Cardano advances preparations for its intra-era upgrade to Protocol 11, known as the van Rossem hard fork. Intersect confirmed that Cardano Node 10.7.0 Target prerelease should arrive within days. The release sets the stage for ecosystem integration and testing before the network moves toward testnet and mainnet upgrades.
Cardano Hard Fork Moves Closer With Node 10.7.0
Intersect reported that Cardano Node 10.7.0 Target prerelease is expected within days. The organization operates as a member-based body within the Cardano ecosystem. It outlined the release timeline in a recent technical update.
Cardano Node 10.7.0 stands as one of two required releases for the van Rossem hard fork. Earlier, developers deployed Node 10.6.2 in February to begin preparations. Now, the upcoming version introduces new features beyond hard fork functionality.
The ecosystem will integrate Node 10.7.0 into tooling once developers publish the release. Teams will conduct integration testing and performance checks across services. Dependent on results, developers may issue further minor updates.
Intersect stated, “Cardano Node 10.7.0 Target prerelease is expected within a few days.” The group added that prerelease 10.7.0 supports feature testing. Version 10.7.x will later transition to version 11 for testnet forks.
Developers will promote version 11 to fork the Preview and PreProd testnets. After testnet validation, they will prepare for the mainnet fork. The upgrade process follows established Cardano governance procedures.
Protocol 11 Introduces New Plutus Built-Ins
The Cardano hard fork to Protocol 11 will introduce new Plutus built-ins. These include CIP-138 for Array type support. They also include CIP-153 for the MaryEraValue type.
Developers will add CIP-109 for modular exponentiation functionality. They will also implement the CIP-132 drop list built in. In parallel, CIP-133 enables multi-scalar multiplication over BLS12-381.
Intersect confirmed that SanchoNet already runs Protocol version 11. Therefore, developers can test the new built-ins on that network. Scalus updated its smart contract tooling to support these features.
The upgrade does not change the transaction shape. As a result, teams expect limited disruption to existing integrations. Hardware wallets should face no serialization issues under this release.
DBSync compatible with Node 10.7.0 will follow soon after the release. Intersect stated that no serialization changes are included. The upgrade focuses on performance improvements and cleaner ledger rules.
The van Rossem hard fork operates as a small intra-era upgrade. It enhances Plutus performance and introduces new cryptographic capabilities. Existing smart contracts will continue operating without breaking changes.
Summary
- BTQ’s Bitcoin Quantum Testnet v0.3.0 now supports BIP 360’s Pay-to-Merkle-Root (P2MR) outputs, which remove Taproot’s key path spending and force all UTXOs through hash-based script paths to reduce long-exposure quantum risk.
- The testnet validates the full P2MR lifecycle — from address creation and funding to signing, mempool acceptance and confirmation — while preserving compatibility with Lightning, BitVM, Ark, multisig and timelocks.
- BTQ’s release, with one-minute blocks, restored SegWit discount and Dilithium-focused sigop hardening, tackles today’s “harvest-now, decrypt-later” public key exposure but leaves short-exposure quantum attacks to future signature-level upgrades.
BTQ Technologies Corp. announced Thursday the completion of the first functional implementation of Bitcoin Improvement Proposal 360 (BIP 360) on its Bitcoin Quantum Testnet v0.3.0 — marking the first time a quantum-resistant transaction format derived from a formal Bitcoin improvement proposal has been activated in a practical, live testing environment. The announcement, released via PR Newswire, moves BIP 360 from a draft concept into what BTQ describes as “usable, testable infrastructure” available to developers, miners, and researchers today.
BIP 360, co-authored by Hunter Beast, Ethan Heilman, and Isabel Foxen Duke, proposes a new Bitcoin output type called Pay-to-Merkle-Root (P2MR) — a direct response to one of Bitcoin’s most discussed long-term vulnerabilities: the exposure of elliptic curve public keys to quantum computing attacks. Under current Bitcoin architecture, certain transaction types — particularly P2PK outputs and Taproot (P2TR) addresses — leave public keys exposed on-chain, where a sufficiently powerful quantum computer running Shor’s algorithm could theoretically derive the corresponding private keys and drain the associated funds. An estimated 6.26 million BTC, representing roughly $440 billion at recent prices, sits in quantum-vulnerable address types.
P2MR operates with nearly identical functionality to Bitcoin’s existing Taproot output type but with one critical modification: it removes the key path spending mechanism introduced by Taproot, which allows a transaction to be authorised by a single public key signature. Under P2MR, all UTXOs must be spent exclusively through script paths — Tapscript Merkle trees — which rely on hash-based commitments rather than elliptic curve public keys. Since hash functions are considered substantially more resistant to quantum attacks than elliptic curve cryptography, this eliminates a major surface area for long-exposure quantum attacks.
Crucially, P2MR retains full compatibility with Bitcoin’s existing smart contract capabilities, including multi-signature arrangements, timelocks, and complex custody structures. BIP 360’s authors have also confirmed compatibility with the Lightning Network, BitVM, and Ark — the key Bitcoin scaling and programmability frameworks that depend on Taproot architecture — making the upgrade additive rather than disruptive to the ecosystem.
BTQ’s v0.3.0 testnet release validates BIP 360 across the full transaction lifecycle: address creation, funding, transaction construction, signing, mempool acceptance, broadcast, and confirmation. Additional enhancements include optimised one-minute block spacing for faster iteration, a restored SegWit discount — critical given that post-quantum signature schemes using NIST-standardised ML-DSA (Dilithium) cryptography produce substantially larger transactions than standard Bitcoin signatures — and Dilithium signature hardening through improved sigop counting and tapscript security fixes. The testnet currently connects over 50 miners and has processed more than 100,000 blocks.
It is important to note the boundaries of what BIP 360 achieves. The proposal addresses long-exposure quantum vulnerability — the risk that an attacker harvests today’s public keys for decryption once quantum hardware matures — but does not yet protect against short-exposure attacks, where a quantum computer would need to break a signature within the time a transaction is unconfirmed. Full post-quantum security for Bitcoin will require additional proposals covering signature schemes. BIP 360 is, by its authors’ own description, a necessary first step rather than a complete solution — but Thursday’s deployment demonstrates that the infrastructure for that transition is no longer purely theoretical.
As AI agents become a bigger topic in crypto, Pranav Ramesh told CoinDesk that Nasdaq has already been using them across several sections of its business and has sharply expanded that use over roughly the past 18 months.
Ramesh, head of options research at Nasdaq and co-founder and CTO of Leadpoet, said the most meaningful shift has been in trust. “AI agents are relatively new, probably being used more and more over the last six months,” he said, arguing that earlier systems hallucinated too often for sensitive enterprise workflows.
He said Nasdaq is using AI agents in areas including market surveillance, compliance, and market microstructure analysis, and pointed to Nasdaq Verafin’s “Agentic AI Workforce,” which Nasdaq says automates “low-value, high-volume compliance processes” in anti-money laundering work.
Ramesh also pointed to Nasdaq’s AI-powered order type. Nasdaq announced in 2023 that its Dynamic M-ELO order type had become the first exchange AI-powered order type approved by the SEC, using an AI model with more than 140 factors to adjust to real-time market conditions.
For Ramesh, that experience informs how he sees crypto. He said crypto trading platforms are likely to move aggressively on AI agents for both internal operations and retail-facing tools, including position analysis, trade suggestions and execution support. “The crypto trading world is actually going to lead the charge on how AI is used within the retail trading environment,” he said.
He did not describe that shift as fully autonomous. Instead, he said the model he sees taking hold is one in which agents handle most of the analysis and workflow while humans retain final approval. In the interview, he said that at Nasdaq, many systems still stop short of full automation, with human review remaining in the last step.
AI and AI Agents will replace a lot of human labor
Ramesh’s views are also unusually blunt on labor. “Yes, it will take a lot of jobs,” he said of AI agents, adding that he believes lower-level software, customer service and analyst roles are already being displaced as systems become faster, cheaper and more reliable. He framed that as an observable trend rather than a prediction.
And he seems to be right as companies, including the most recent being Crypto.com, which laid off 12% of its staff in a push for greater automation and efficiency through AI. Earlier, crypto research firm Messari parted ways with several of its staff and its chief executive as the company transitioned into what the new CEO called an “AI-first company.” Last month, Block, the payments company founded by Jack Dorsey, announced plans to slash 40% of employees, over 4,000 people, citing improved AI models.
The AI trend lead to founding Leadpoet
That thesis also shaped his path into Leadpoet, the startup he co-founded with Gavin Zaentz. According to a February 2026 company fact sheet, the two met at Nasdaq and founded the company after repeatedly encountering the same problem: outbound tools could generate static lists, but identifying real buying intent still required manual research.
Leadpoet describes itself as an AI-powered lead qualification platform that turns web signals and company context into “decision-ready lead recommendations,” emphasizing “precision over volume.” The company says it supports private deployments so customers can score intent and generate outreach on their own data without exposing it to a vendor.
The fact sheet says Leadpoet uses Bittensor, which describes itself as a decentralized, blockchain-powered AI network that allows participants to contribute models and compute while earning rewards. Ramesh said that a decentralized, competitive structure is part of the appeal, because it can improve models faster than a centralized roadmap.
Leadpoet also says it is a member of NVIDIA Inception, NVIDIA’s startup program for AI companies. NVIDIA describes Inception as a free program that offers technical resources, go-to-market support and access to its broader ecosystem.
In the company’s February 2026 fact sheet, Leadpoet says it reached a $1 million annualized run rate in its first quarter after launch and received backing from DSV Fund and Astrid. In that same material, DSV Fund CIO Siam Kidd said Ramesh and Zaentz combine “deep AI engineering expertise with a real understanding of day-to-day sales.”
Ramesh tied the company directly to what he says he saw inside large institutions adopting AI: agents moving from assistants to systems that can handle real operational work. In crypto, he said, that shift is likely to become visible faster than in many other corners of finance.
Opera, a Nasdaq-listed web browser company, is proposing to change how it is compensated by the Celo ecosystem, opting to receive native tokens instead of cash as it deepens its involvement with the network.
The company said Thursday it has proposed restructuring its commercial agreement, moving from US dollar-denominated quarterly payments to an allocation of 160 million CELO (CELO) tokens, subject to approval by Celo’s onchain governance community.
If approved, the shift would more directly align Opera’s financial incentives with the network’s performance and make it one of the largest institutional holders of CELO.
Celo is an Ethereum-aligned protocol focused on mobile-first payments, particularly for stablecoin transfers in emerging markets. Last year, it transitioned from a standalone layer-1 blockchain to an Ethereum layer-2 network.
Opera said the proposed change reflects its “belief in the long-term value” of the Celo ecosystem. The two have worked together since 2021, when Opera integrated Celo-native stablecoins into its browser wallet.
The partnership has increasingly centered on Opera’s MiniPay wallet, a self-custodial app built on Celo, which the company says has grown to 14 million users and focuses on stablecoin payments in emerging markets. MiniPay initiated connections with Latin America real-time payment platforms PIX and Mercado Pago in November.
To be sure, Opera isn’t the only company to accumulate tokens tied to a blockchain protocol. Ethereum software company ConsenSys has exposure to Ether (ETH) through its work on core infrastructure, such as MetaMask. Blockstream, a Bitcoin infrastructure company, holds Bitcoin (BTC) while developing products and services around the network.
Related: US ban on stablecoin yield could see others fill the void: Ledger exec
Opera reports revenue growth, announces buyback
Opera’s deeper integration with Celo comes on the heels of stronger-than-guided results, as the company reported growth across its core browser business and newer product segments.
In February, Opera reported fourth-quarter revenue of $177.2 million, up 22% year-over-year. Adjusted earnings came in at $41.9 million, representing a 24% margin.
For the full year, revenue reached $614.8 million, with adjusted earnings of $142.5 million.
The company also announced a $300 million share repurchase program, which reduces the number of outstanding shares and can increase earnings per share.
Opera’s Nasdaq-traded shares are up more than 21% over the past month and currently trading at around $15 a share, giving the company a market capitalization of roughly $1.3 billion.
Related: Abra targets Nasdaq listing in $750M deal with New Providence SPAC
Ripple keeps broadening its reach outside the US, while whales have shown notable interest in XRP.
Ripple remains one of the most talked-about projects in the crypto space, driven by constant developments across its ecosystem.
Despite the ongoing market correction, XRP (the company’s native token) has posted weekly gains, whereas some key indicators suggest a more substantial rally could be on the horizon.
The Global Expansion and More
In the last several months, the American-based entity expanded its footprint in the Middle East, while earlier in March, it announced plans to secure an Australian Financial Services License. Such a permit would allow the firm to operate a fully licensed payments platform in Australia and offer services under a recognized regulatory framework.
Just a few days ago, Ripple widened its reach across Brazil by becoming “the only solution in the region capable of serving institutions across the full spectrum of financial needs – from cross-border payments and digital asset custody to prime brokerage and treasury management.” Additionally, the company applied for a Virtual Asset Service Provider (VASP) license with the nation’s central bank.
It also made strides in the North American market by teaming up with i-payout to help the latter enable fast, transparent cross-border payments.
Another major news related to Ripple is Evernorth’s step forward to listing on the Nasdaq. The venture that focuses on accumulating, managing, and providing institutional exposure to XRP filed a Form S-4 registration statement with the US SEC in connection with its planned merger with Armada Acquisition Corp. II. Last year, the entity revealed that it had raised over $1 billion in gross proceeds from major institutions such as Ripple Labs, Pantera Capital, Kraken, SBI Holdings, and others.
The ETF Front
2025 was pivotal for Ripple, not only because its long-running legal battle with the SEC finally ended, but also due to the launch of the first spot XRP ETF, which offered full exposure to the asset. This happened in November, and the company behind the product was Canary Capital.
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Some renowned firms, including Bitwise, Franklin Templeton, 21Shares, and Grayscale, followed suit, and the investment vehicles have so far generated a cumulative total net inflow of more than $1.2 billion.
However, over the past week, outflows have dominated inflows, indicating that institutional appetite for Ripple’s native token has been declining. After several consecutive red days, the netflow finally flashed green on March 17, and we have yet to see whether the interest will pick up in the short term.
XRP Outlook
As of this writing, Ripple’s cross-border token trades at around $1.44 (per CoinGecko), representing a 4% weekly increase. This contrasts with the losses that many other altcoins have posted during that timeframe.
The broken negative streak on the ETF front, as well as the recent whale accumulation, suggest XRP may record additional gains in the near future. As CryptoPotato reported, large investors purchased 200 million coins in the past two weeks, showing strong confidence in the asset and setting the stage for a possible move north.
The USD equivalent of the stash is roughly $290 million, and this group of market participants now controls 11.1 billion tokens, or 19% of XRP’s circulating supply.
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The European Central Bank (ECB) said it is looking for experts to help draft rules about how a digital euro would work in everyday payments in anticipation of legislation approving a central bank digital currency (CBDC) and a decision by the bank’s governing council to issue one.
The ECB opened applications for experts to help draft parts of the digital euro rulebook relating specifically to ATMs and card payment terminals used in stores, it said Thursday.
ECB President Christine Lagarde said in December the bank had completed its technical and preparatory work on the digital currency and it was now up to political institutions to act. The project, which aims to create a public digital means of payment, is under review by the European Council and the European Parliament. If approved, the central bank has signaled a potential rollout by 2029.
One workstream will define how ATMs and point-of-sale terminals process digital euro payments. This includes how devices connect, how they support offline transactions and how current payment standards can support the new currency. The goal is to ensure people pay with a digital euro at checkout or withdraw it from cash machines across the eurozone.
A second group will design a certification process for payment tools and infrastructure. It will set how providers test and approve systems used to accept digital euro payments in stores and payment networks.
While the central bank is working on the project, a group of 12 European banks are moving forward with their own version of a euro-pegged token. The banks, including BBVA, ING, PNB Paribas, have formed the Qivalis project, a plan to roll-out a euro-pegged stablecoin in the second half of 2026, aiming to offer blockchain payments without relying on dollar-backed tokens.
OpenClaw developers on GitHub, a platform for collaboration and version control, are being targeted in a phishing campaign using fake token giveaways to lure victims into connecting crypto wallets that can then be drained.
The attackers created bogus GitHub accounts and tagged developers in issue threads, claiming they had been selected to receive roughly $5,000 worth of CLAW tokens, Tel Aviv-based cybersecurity company OX Security said in a blog post on Wednesday.
The attackers’ posts link to a near-identical clone of the OpenClaw website, but with a key addition: a prompt to connect a crypto wallet. Once a wallet is connected, malicious code can trigger transactions or approvals that allow attackers to siphon funds. The phishing page supports major wallets including MetaMask, WalletConnect and Trust Wallet, widening the potential impact, OX said.
The campaign highlights an increasingly common attack vector in crypto: social engineering paired with wallet connection requests, often disguised as airdrops or developer rewards. By targeting GitHub users who interacted with OpenClaw-related repositories, the attackers made the outreach appear more credible.
OpenClaw is an open-source AI agent framework and developer tool that has recently attracted attention, and controversy, over crypto-related scams exploiting its name.
Peter Steinberger, the founder of OpenClaw, said last month he was about to delete the entire codebase because of crypto. “I didn’t know that they’re not just good at harassment, they are also really good at using scripts and tools.”
His statement followed a blanket ban he imposed on any mention of crypto, including bitcoin , in the project’s Discord after scammers in January hijacked OpenClaw’s old accounts. The hackers promoted a fake CLAWD token that briefly hit a $16 million market cap before collapsing after Steinberger When Steinberger publicly denied any involvement.
- Animoca Brands has announced a strategic investment in Avalanche.
- The move aims at promoting the adoption of projects built on Avalanche.
- Could the strategic investment boost AVAX price?
The Avalanche (AVAX) price has slipped below $10 as cryptocurrencies experience sell-off pressure.
AVAX could extend the decline to below $9, but is the announcement that Animoca Brands has partnered with Ava Labs to help expand adoption across the Middle East and Asia bullish for the token?
Animoca Brands partners with Ava Labs
Animoca Brands is one of the most influential entities in the web3 ecosystem, boasting notable traction globally and particularly in the East.
The announcement shared today, March 19, revealed that Animoca has signed a strategic partnership with Ava Labs, a company focused on advancing the Avalanche blockchain ecosystem.
While Animoca Brands did not disclose the amount invested, its leadership has termed the investment as a major one.
The focus will be on the deployment of capital in AVAX-based projects, as well as supporting product integrations and offering advisory support.
The Ava Labs team noted that Animoca brings a portfolio of over 600 investments and deep expertise across real-world assets, gaming, and digital identity.
With the collaboration, Ava Labs will target expansion across Asia and the Middle East.
“Avalanche combines scalable subnet architecture with EVM compatibility, which makes it particularly well suited for sovereign and institutional deployments — areas where we see growing demand globally,” said Omar Elassar, Animoca’s head of global strategic partnerships and managing director for the Middle East.
Avalanche RWA and DeFi markets
Avalanche (AVAX) ranks 22nd among the largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalisation, with a valuation of about $4 billion as of March 19, 2026.
However, the layer-1 network remains significantly smaller than leading altcoins in terms of overall market size and ecosystem activity.
Data indicates that Avalanche lags major chains across decentralised finance and real-world asset (RWA) adoption.
According to RWA.xyz, the total value of tokenised assets on Avalanche stands at roughly $1.3 billion, compared with about $15.7 billion on Ethereum.
Similarly, Avalanche’s DeFi total value locked (TVL) is around $1.9 billion, well below Ethereum’s $136 billion and the more than $18 billion recorded on Solana.
Despite this gap, the network’s on-chain finance footprint is showing signs of expansion.
The backing from Animoca Brands could help accelerate growth, while the AVAX token may benefit from further integrations and ecosystem adoption.
AVAX price outlook
AVAX trades around $9.41, down 3% in the past 24 hours.
From a technical perspective, AVAX is trading in a broad downtrend trajectory, with prices constrained within a tightening Bollinger Bands formation.
Currently, AVAX is near the technical indicator’s middle line after recent rejections from the upper band.
Meanwhile, the relative strength index (RSI) has flipped downward and hovers near 48 as bulls risk losing the neutral outlook to the momentum.
However, while sellers show resolve, they are not dominant.
If AVAX holds above $9, a broader recovery could allow for a breakout above $10 and a potential short-term retest of year-to-date highs near $15.
On the downside, failure to defend support zones could drag AVAX to lows of $8.20.
Key Takeaways
- XRP broke above $1.426 resistance after months of consolidation, jumping to $1.47 on surging volume
- Trading volume spiked over 250% during the move, indicating strong participation in the breakout
- Activity on the XRP Ledger continues climbing, with tokenized real-world assets approaching $1.14 billion in value
- Traders are watching if the $1.43-$1.44 level holds as support, with potential targets at $1.50-$1.55 if momentum sustains
XRP cleared a significant technical hurdle Thursday, breaking above $1.426 resistance that had capped the token’s rallies for several months. The move lifted XRP from approximately $1.41 to $1.47, marking the first decisive push above this ceiling since early 2026 and shifting short-term momentum decisively in favor of buyers.
The breakout came on dramatically increased volume, with trading activity spiking roughly 250% during the move. Roughly 170 million tokens traded during the latest 24-hour session, providing the liquidity needed to clear overhead resistance with conviction.
Technical Breakout Gains Traction
The key development was XRP’s decisive close above the $1.426 zone, which had repeatedly acted as a ceiling throughout the token’s multi-month consolidation range. Once cleared on strong volume, price action accelerated quickly toward the $1.47 level, with short-term charts now showing a sequence of higher lows forming below the breakout point.
This pattern suggests buyers are attempting to transform the former resistance zone into support. Momentum remains constructive as long as XRP maintains support above the $1.43-$1.44 area, where the initial breakout occurred. The next technical barrier sits near $1.48-$1.50, where previous rallies have stalled.
Ledger Activity Provides Backdrop
While the latest price advance lacked a clear XRP-specific catalyst, activity on the XRP Ledger has continued climbing steadily. Tokenized real-world assets on the network have risen sharply, with the value of tokenized commodities approaching $1.14 billion during the first quarter. This growing on-chain activity provides a constructive backdrop for the token’s technical breakout.
What’s Next for XRP
Traders are now focused on whether XRP can maintain support above the $1.43-$1.44 breakout level. If this zone holds, the token could extend the move toward $1.50 and potentially reach the $1.55 region as momentum builds and more buyers participate in the rally.
However, a failure to hold above $1.43 would weaken the breakout’s credibility and could pull XRP back toward the previous consolidation range near $1.39-$1.40. Such a move would likely reset technical momentum and require another consolidation period before buyers could regroup for another attempt at resistance.
The breakout’s sustainability will depend on maintaining strong volume participation and the broader bitcoin-led rally that sparked the initial move higher.
Summary
- Deribit data shows $20k Bitcoin put options are now the third most crowded strike by open interest, with about $596m notional, behind $125k and $75k calls heading into the quarterly expiry.
- Despite the doomsday optics, much of the $20k put exposure likely reflects traders selling tail-risk insurance for premium rather than betting on a 70%+ crash from spot.
- With max pain clustered around $75k and fear gauges elevated after macro and geopolitical shocks, the positioning highlights a split market: structurally bullish but acutely aware of low‑probability blow-up scenarios.
As Bitcoin’s largest quarterly options expiration of the year approaches on Deribit, a striking data point has emerged from the derivatives market: $20,000 put options have become the third most popular strike price by open interest, with a notional value of approximately $596 million. The figure reflects a market gripped by uncertainty — one in which traders are simultaneously betting on recovery and hedging for catastrophe.
According to data cited by CoinDesk, the top three strike prices by open interest ahead of the quarterly expiry are: $125,000 call options ($740 million), $75,000 calls ($687 million), and $20,000 put options ($596 million). The total notional value of the expiration stands at $13.5 billion, comprising 120,236 BTC in call contracts and 75,482 BTC in put contracts — a put/call ratio of 0.63, which, despite the elevated put activity, still leans modestly bullish in aggregate.
The surge in $20,000 put interest has raised eyebrows across the derivatives community, but analysts caution against reading it as a straightforward crash prediction. With Bitcoin currently trading below $70,000, the $20,000 strike represents a more than 70% decline from current levels — placing these contracts deeply out of the money.
Deribit’s global head of retail sales, Sidrah Fariq, noted that much of the positioning in deeply out-of-the-money puts likely reflects option selling for premium income rather than genuine expectation of such an extreme decline. Traders collect upfront premiums by selling low-probability puts, a common yield-enhancement strategy during periods of elevated implied volatility.
Still, the sheer scale of the position — which has been reported at close to $800 million in some analyses earlier this month — has drawn scrutiny. Whalesbook analysts noted that the concentration “warrants closer examination than simple hedging,” particularly as it coincides with a broader backdrop of geopolitical stress, rising energy prices, and macro uncertainty stemming from the Middle East conflict.
Indeed, market context matters. The Fear and Greed Index plunged to extreme fear territory in early March following the escalation of the Middle East crisis and effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Bitcoin briefly fell toward the $67,000–$69,000 range, with put/call ratios for near-term expirations spiking to as high as 1.70. Against this backdrop, the accumulation of $20,000 puts — even if primarily driven by premium selling — signals that at least some market participants are not ruling out tail-risk scenarios.
The maximum pain point for the quarterly expiration sits at $75,000, a level that market-makers may be incentivized to push toward before settlement — potentially creating a near-term magnetic effect on spot prices.
For now, the presence of nearly $600 million in $20,000 puts underscores the defining tension of this market cycle: institutional optimism on one end, and a deeply uncertain macro and geopolitical landscape on the other.
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