Crypto World
Iran’s IRGC Turns Strait of Hormuz Into a $2 Million Toll Road for Global Tanker Traffic
TLDR:
- Iran’s IRGC charges up to $2M per tanker transit, accepting cash, crypto, or barter as payment.
- Between March 1–15, roughly 89–90 vessels cleared the strait under some form of IRGC approval.
- Total transit costs now exceed what moving an entire fleet through Hormuz cost six months ago.
- Sanctioning paying operators risks halting the only active oil supply channel through the strait.
The Strait of Hormuz has become a commercial toll point following reports of Iran’s IRGC charging tanker operators up to $2 million per passage.
The Financial Times confirmed the arrangement, with the IRGC verifying clearances over VHF radio. Between March 1 and March 15, roughly 89 to 90 vessels transited under some form of IRGC clearance, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence.
Payments are made in cash, cryptocurrency, or through barter, and the commercial precedent is now firmly established.
How the IRGC Toll Mechanism Operates at the Strait of Hormuz
The process begins when a tanker operator contacts intermediaries linked to the IRGC. Negotiations follow, and a fee of up to $2 million per voyage is agreed. Payment is accepted in cash, cryptocurrency, or through barter. The vessel then receives clearance to proceed.
The IRGC hails the tanker on VHF radio to verify its AIS transponder data. After confirmation, the ship is granted passage through the strait.
Not all 89 to 90 vessels paid the toll between March 1 and March 15. Iranian and allied ships, along with some Indian tankers, received passage through separate government-to-government arrangements.
Analyst Shanaka Anslem Perera shared key details on X about the toll arrangement. He described how intermediaries negotiate with the IRGC and confirmed that payments are made in cash or crypto.
At least one operator paid the toll explicitly, his post confirmed. That single transaction set a benchmark the broader market now faces.
The $2 million toll adds to soaring war-risk insurance costs. A VLCC worth $120 million pays between $3.6 million and $6 million in war-risk premiums per voyage.
Charter rates have also quadrupled, reaching up to $800,000 per day. Moving one crude cargo now costs more than an entire fleet transit did six months ago.
Cost Flows to Consumers as the Strait of Hormuz Becomes Self-Financing
Every dollar added at the strait eventually reaches end consumers. The toll raises prices for crude, LNG, urea, and pharmaceuticals.
The $2 million is not a cost confined to the shipping industry. Billions of people downstream absorb it through higher commodity prices.
The IRGC appears to have created a self-sustaining revenue loop through the closure. The blockade generated scarcity, and that scarcity pushed operators to pay for passage.
Those payments reportedly fund the same provincial commands that enforced the initial closure. The mechanism sustains itself without any external financing.
The United States is likely to frame these toll payments as state-sponsored terrorism financing. Expected responses include sanctions on paying operators and expanded designations on intermediaries.
A naval escort pledge involving six allied nations is also set to accelerate. However, enforcement carries a direct contradiction in practice.
Sanctioning every paying operator removes the only vessels currently moving oil through the strait. The toll, though extortion, remains the only active supply channel in the region.
Iran has reopened the Strait of Hormuz selectively, on its own terms and at its own price. The boundary between a military operation and a protection racket has effectively collapsed.
Crypto World
Bitcoin (BTC) price holds steady, with one analyst seeing the upside emerging: Crypto Daybook Americas
By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
Bitcoin has stabilized above $70,000. Its relative strength is noteworthy given the selloff over the week, which saw it drop from over $75,000.
Most assets saw sharp downturns over the period as the conflict in Iran escalated, damaging vital energy infrastructure. A hotter-than-expected February U.S. PPI print compounded the effect.
Traditional havens, including gold and silver, also tumbled while Brent crude surged above $110 a barrel owing to supply disruptions caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
The Fed didn’t help. While the U.S. central bank held interest rates steady on Wednesday, as expected, its tone turned hawkish. The conflict’s effects have damped rate-cut expectations, and, in fact, the perceived odds of rate increases surge from 8% to top 24% on prediction markets.
André Dragosch, head of research for Europe at Bitwise, told CoinDesk the bitcoin sits at the intersection of two powerful and opposing forces, and that the balance may already be tipping in the token’s favour.
On one side, rising inflation expectations are supportive, Dragosch said. Bitcoin bull runs have historically aligned with expansions in the ISM Manufacturing Index, which rose sharply this year, and rising inflation expectations.
“This combination of rising economic activity and inflation expectations is probably one of the key reasons why bitcoin recently managed to outperform other traditional assets like gold and US equities,” he said. “Bitcoin is also generally less interest rate-sensitive than gold, which is why it wasn’t so much affected by the rise in bond yields. “
On the other hand, tighter financial conditions are a headwind. Bitcoin, however, may have been acting as the canary in what Dragosch called the “macro coal mine.”
“Bitcoin appears to have already priced in much of this tightening, exhibiting a record “macro discount” and front-running the recent deterioration in forward-looking indicators,” Dragosch said.
Looking ahead, a key catalyst will remain improving financial conditions. That means the conflict in the Middle East ending and the Strait of Hormuz reopening, even as developments in the crypto space show growing adoption. Stay alert!
Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today
What to Watch
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.
- Crypto
- Macro
- March 20, 8:30 a.m.: Canada PPI YoY (Prev. 5.4%); MoM (Prev. 2.7%)
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
- March 20: BitFuFu (FUFU), pre-market, $0.01
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.
- Governance votes & calls
- Lightchain AI DAO is voting on a temporary 90-day team authority proposal, which grants the core team short-term operational authority to make day-to-day and strategic decisions. Voting ends March 22.
- Unlocks
- March 20: LayerZero (ZRO) to unlock 5.64% of its circulating supply worth $52.45 million.
- Token Launches
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.
Market Movements
- BTC is up 0.29% from 4 p.m. ET Thursday at $70,608.19 (24hrs: +0.69%)
- ETH is down 0.55% at $2,148.07 (24hrs: -1.14%)
- CoinDesk 20 is up 0.34% at 2,044.85 (24hrs: unchanged)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 2 bps at 2.76%
- BTC funding rate is at -0.0020% (-2.1703% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is down 0.38% at 99.70
- Gold futures are up 1.58% at $4,673.60
- Silver futures are up 1.75% at $72.14
- Nikkei 225 closed down 3.38% at 53,372.53
- Hang Seng closed down 0.88% at 25,277.32
- FTSE 100 is down 2.16% at 10,082.61
- Euro Stoxx 50 is down 1.71% at 5,638.54
- DJIA closed on Thursday down 0.44% at 46,021.43
- S&P 500 closed down 0.27% at 6,606.49
- Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.28% at 22,090.69
- S&P/TSX Composite closed down 1.42% at 31,854.98
- S&P 40 Latin America closed up 0.22% at 3,466.80
- U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 2 bps at 4.28%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.52% at 6,625.50
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.68% at 24,412.50
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are down 0.43% at 46,140.00
Bitcoin Stats
- BTC Dominance: 58.90% (0.18%)
- Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03043 (-0.49%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 925 EH/s
- Hashprice (spot): $30.68
- Total fees: 2.95 BTC / $206,875
- CME Futures Open Interest: 117,190 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 15.2 oz.
- BTC vs gold market cap: 4.72%
Technical Analysis
- BTC/SPX may be showing signs of bottoming out – with RSI bouncing off from oversold levels and the line maintaining its trend.
- The ratio is currently below the 50-week exponential moving average, which implies more range-bound performance until we see a breakout above the average.
Crypto Equities
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Thursday at $202.91 (+0.31%), -0.45% at $201.99 in pre-market
- Circle Internet Group (CRCL): closed at $128.33 (-3.40%), -2.20% at $125.51
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $21.05 (-2.46%), -0.71% at $20.90
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $9.22 (+3.36%), -0.33% at $9.19
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $14.14 (+0.28%), +0.28% at $14.18
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $16.48 (+0.80%)
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.83 (-0.51%), -0.31% at $9.80
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $7.73 (-4.57%)
- CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF (WGMI): closed at $39.10 (+0.00%)
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $39.60 (+3.45%), -0.98% at $39.21
Crypto Treasury Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $138.24 (-1.65%), +0.54% at $138.99
- Strive Asset Management (ASST): closed at $10.26 (+2.24%), +0.49% at $10.31
- SharpLink (SBET): closed at $7.68 (-2.41%), +1.04% at $7.76
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $1.07 (+0.00%), +1.87% at $1.09
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.17 (-0.85%)
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs
- Daily net flows: -$90.2 million
- Cumulative net flows: $56.26 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.29 million
Spot ETH ETFs
- Daily net flows: -$136.4 million
- Cumulative net flows: $11.8 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~5.76 million
Source: Farside Investors
While You Were Sleeping
South Korea’s National Tax Service (NTS) is moving to select a private custody provider for seized crypto assets after a February press release exposed a wallet recovery phrase and triggered the unauthorized transfer of confiscated tokens.
On Feb. 26, the NTS accidentally exposed a crypto wallet seed phrase in an official press release, resulting in the unauthorized transfer of crypto tokens valued at about $4.8 million. The release included an image of a Ledger cold wallet and a sheet of paper showing the mnemonic phrase without being blurred.
Citing people familiar with the matter, ZDNet Korea reported that the agency is reviewing a plan to outsource custody of confiscated crypto and is drafting selection criteria for providers. The NTS is reportedly aiming to select a provider within the first half of 2026.
The agency plans to evaluate candidates based on several factors, including security requirements, company size, and whether the firm holds insurance under South Korea’s Virtual Asset User Protection Act, ZDNet Korea reported.
The move shows South Korean authorities are trying to formalize custody of seized crypto after a series of handling failures exposed weaknesses in how confiscated digital assets are stored and managed.
New task force to oversee custody provider selection process
The custody selection will reportedly be led by a newly-formed task force focused on advancing digital asset management systems.
The task force is reportedly working on several initiatives, including improving operational manuals covering the full life cycle of seized assets, from seizure to storage and liquidation. It would also conduct assessments and personnel training.
Related: South Korea opposition party pushes to scrap planned 22% crypto tax
The group is also preparing to establish a dedicated division to oversee crypto-related work.
An NTS official said that since crypto is relatively new, responsibilities are split across departments. However, preparations are underway to create a centralized unit, ZDNet Korea reported.
NTS wallet seed leak prompts inter-agency probe
The NTS’s wallet leak and a separate custody failure in which Seoul’s Gangnam police allegedly lost 22 BTC seized prompted authorities to conduct an inter-agency review of seized crypto assets.
On March 1, South Korea’s Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy and Finance, Koo Yun-cheol, announced a cross-agency probe on how the government handles seized digital assets.
Magazine: Metaplanet’s Japan Bitcoin bet, Bithumb ordered suspension: Asia Express
Gemini Crypto is getting sued.
Shareholders filed a class-action in Manhattan federal court claiming the exchange lied to investors during its September IPO.
The target is the company itself and the Winklevoss twins. The allegation is that Gemini raised capital on a growth story, then quietly ditched it for prediction markets and cost-cutting the moment the money was in.
The stock tells the rest of the story. From a post-IPO high of $40 down to around $6. That is an 80% collapse, and now the people who bought in want answers.
- Lawsuit Details: Plaintiff Marc Methvin filed the class-action in Manhattan, accusing Gemini executives of misleading shareholders about the company’s business model.
- Stock Collapse: After pricing its IPO at $28 and touching $40, Gemini shares handled on Nasdaq have plummeted more than 80% to trade near $6.
- Strategic Pivot: The complaint alleges Gemini secretly planned to pivot from its core exchange product to a prediction market model while cutting staff and exiting key regions.
The Mechanics of the Bait-and-Switch Allegation: What the Lawsuit Claims
The lawsuit comes down to one thing: what Gemini told investors and what it actually did.
Gemini listed on the Nasdaq in September at $28. The pitch was global expansion, user growth, and a central exchange built to scale internationally. Shareholders bought in. Then the story changed fast.
By November, executives were still talking up key global markets. By February, the Winklevoss brothers scrapped the entire narrative.
They announced Gemini 2.0, a pivot toward prediction markets, alongside a 25% workforce reduction. Then came the exits. EU, UK, Australia. Every market flagged as a growth opportunity, gone.
The plaintiff argues this was not a reaction to market conditions. It was a planned strategy shift that made the IPO materials misleading from the start.
If internal communications contradict what was in the prospectus, that is a serious problem. Dismissing a misleading disclosure charge is hard when the paper trail works against you.
The regulatory environment does not help Gemini here either. When shareholder litigation runs on securities law, and securities law does not bend for sentiment. This is also a different fight from the Earn program settlement. That was about unregistered securities. This is about whether investors were sold a business model that was already being abandoned.
The pivot to prediction markets trades a large addressable market for a speculative niche. Gemini capped its own ceiling and the stock reflects it.
Discover: The best new crypto in the world
The post Gemini Crypto Sued Over Post-IPO Strategy Shift and Stock Decline appeared first on Cryptonews.
In a survey released on Thursday, Ripple said 72% of more than 1,000 global finance leaders believe companies must offer digital asset solutions to stay competitive.
The survey found stablecoins were the most prominent use case, with 74% of respondents saying they can boost cash flow and unlock trapped capital.
The report polled around 1,000 finance firms globally, including banks, asset managers, fintechs and corporates, on adoption, stablecoins, tokenization and custody priorities.
The findings suggest many financial firms are focusing less on whether to engage with digital assets and more on how to buy, build or partner for the infrastructure needed to support them.
Ripple said the shift toward digital assets is being driven by evolving regulation, growing interest from large banks, increased use of fintech services and the rise of stablecoins.
Stablecoins top the survey’s digital asset use cases
Respondents showed the strongest interest in stablecoins. “That unanimity makes it clear that finance leaders are thinking about stablecoins as more than just a new way to execute payments,” Ripple said, adding that institutions increasingly view them as tools for treasury management.
The survey suggests fintech firms are leading adoption. Around 47% of fintech respondents said they plan to build their own digital asset solutions, compared to 14% of corporates. In contrast, 74% of corporates said they intend to work with external providers.
Banks and asset managers prioritize digital asset custody
The survey showed growing interest in tokenization, with banks and asset managers prioritizing digital asset custody, or secure storage. Some 89% of those evaluating tokenization partners cited secure storage as a top concern, while token lifecycle management and primary distribution ranked at 82% and 80%, respectively.
Bank respondents also indicated strong demand for advisory support, with 85% citing pre-issuance structuring as important, compared to 76% of asset managers.
Related: 74% of institutions expect crypto prices to rise in 12 months: Survey
“This indicates that many institutions are seeking experienced partners to guide implementation alongside technology deployment,” Ripple said.
When choosing infrastructure partners, 97% of respondents highlighted the importance of security certifications such as ISO and SOC II.
The survey underscores that digital assets are no longer optional. “Most finance leaders aren’t debating digital assets anymore,” Ripple said in a post on X, adding: “They’re figuring out how to build with them and who to build with.”
Magazine: Are DeFi devs liable for the illegal activity of others on their platforms?
XRP price rebounded back above $1.45 on Friday after bulls managed to defend the $1.40 support during the market-wide bloodbath over the past day.
Summary
- XRP rebounded above $1.45 after defending $1.40 support, despite broader market weakness driven by geopolitical tensions and risk-off sentiment.
- Whale accumulation of over 200 million XRP and $150 million in institutional holdings signals renewed interest, alongside speculation of a potential XRP treasury.
- Technical setup shows a descending channel and a rounded bottom, with a breakout above $1.69 potentially opening upside toward $2.1.
After falling nearly 11% from its weekly high to $1.45 on March 19, XRP (XRP) price bounced back to $1.45 at the last check on Friday, March 20.
XRP price fell as the broader crypto market tanked amid escalating war concerns in the Middle East, which has left investors to move to a derisking mode as they turn toward gold and other safe-haven assets to park their capital until concerns cool off.
Despite the recent volatility, a few key developments could support a potential recovery for the asset.
First, whales have returned to accumulation mode in recent weeks, a major signal that often influences retail sentiment.
In a recent X post, market analyst Ali Martinez shared on-chain data that shows XRP whales have accumulated at least 200 million XRP over the past two weeks.
Second, Goldman Sachs, one of the world’s leading investment banks, has now become the largest institutional holder of XRP in the U.S. The banking giant reportedly holds over $150 million worth of XRP across four spot XRP funds, more than the combined holdings of the next 29 institutional holders in line.
Such massive endorsements from prominent financial institutions could drive greater appeal for the token as it transitions into a mainstream investment vehicle.
Third, investor hype is also building over an XRP treasury reserve being established by Evernorth. Such a move could mirror the approach taken by Michael Saylor with Bitcoin at Strategy and help to solidify XRP as a cornerstone institutional asset.
The firm said it will be the largest XRP holder after its public listing. The strategic move could give XRP more visibility and prestige in the eyes of traditional investors who are looking for regulated exposure to the crypto market.
On the daily chart, XRP price has respected a descending parallel channel pattern in which it has been trading since mid-July 2025. A breakout from such a bullish reversal pattern has typically been a precursor to a sustained rally as it signals the end of a long-term corrective phase.
More recently, XRP price has also been forming a rounded bottom pattern, which has historically been followed by a gradual shift from bearish to bullish sentiment as buyers slowly regain control.
For now, the key resistance level to watch is $1.69, which serves as the neckline of the rounded bottom pattern. A move past this point would confirm both a breakout from the pattern and the descending channel at the same time.
A decisive break above this level could lift XRP up to $2.1, a target that has been calculated by adding the height of the rounded bottom to the point at which the breakout occurs.
Momentum indicators seem to present a strengthening case for the bulls. Notably, the MACD lines have pointed upwards while the Aroon Up at 78.57% sits far above the Aroon Down at 14.29%, also confirming that the upward trend is currently gaining significant steam.
Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.
Crypto World
Bitcoin consolidates as traders hedge and macro uncertainty lingers: Crypto Markets Today
Crypto markets were little changed Friday, with the CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) virtually unchanged. Bitcoin has gained just 0.8% since midnight UTC and ether (ETH) added less than 0.1%.
Crude oil prices dropped below $100 on Thursday and were recently trading at $96 per barrel as the U.S. was said to be assessing whether it should release sanctioned Iranian oil to increase supply and reduce pressure on prices.
This gave a momentary boost to risk assets with U.S. equities showing signs of recovery, but that move has now reversed. Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 futures are down by 0.6% and 0.4%, respectively, since midnight, indicating continued market fragility.
Precious metals are now trading back in line with crypto after a ferocious rally to record highs at the start of the year. Gold is at $4,660 after putting in a top at $5,600 on Jan. 29.
Derivatives positioning
- Bitcoin open interest (OI) stabilized at $16.9 billion, roughly mirroring last week’s $17 billion and suggesting speculative activity has leveled off.
- Funding rates across most platforms have returned to a neutral range of 0%-10%, with the negative rates observed over the previous two days probably fueling an initial relief rally through short covering before contributing to the recent crash.
- The three-month annualized basis is holding steady at 2.8%, a sign that institutional conviction remains cautious.
- The options market reflects defensive positioning: The 24-hour call-to-put volume split has shifted to 43/56.
- Risk aversion is tightening, with the one-week 25-delta skew rising to 14% from 9%, notably increasing the cost of downside protection.
- The implied volatility term structure confirms a sharp front-end spike into backwardation, a signal that traders are bracing for an immediate, high-impact volatility event, prioritizing short-term hedging over stable mid-term growth expectations.
- Long-dated implied volatility (IV) remains anchored near 50%,
- Coinglass data shows $308 million in 24-hour liquidations, with a 63-37 split between longs and shorts. BTC (93 million), ETH ($81 million) and others ($19 million) were the leaders in terms of notional liquidations.
- The Binance liquidation heatmap indicates $68,500 as a core liquidation level to monitor in case of a price drop.
Token talk
- The altcoin market continues to show signs of optimism despite many of the crypto majors remaining trapped in a tight trading range since early February.
- Quant (QNT) is up by 7.5% since midnight following a spot listing on popular trading app Robinhood, while AI token FET has extended its rich vein of form, rising by 6.5%.
- CoinMarketCap’s Altcoin Season index is currently at 46/100, falling back slightly but still well above February’s lows, when it languished in the low 20s.
- While the CoinDesk 20 (CD20) Index is flat since midnight, the altcoin-dominant CoinDesk 80 (CD80) is up by 0.3%, indicating a slight outperformance.
Yesterday, the Bank of England’s decision had a significant impact on the pound, which strengthened against other currencies. Although the Official Bank Rate remained unchanged at 3.75%, the market was surprised by the “hawkish” signals, which sharply contrasted with the dovish statements made at the February meeting.
According to media reports:
→ None of the nine committee members voted to cut the rate;
→ The phrase stating that the rate “could be lowered in the future” was removed from the final statement.
Thus, the Bank of England indicated that it is ready to raise rates if the energy shock caused by the Middle East conflict accelerates inflation.
The hawkish stance contributed to the pound rising above the upper boundary of the channel in which it had been trading since late January.
Technical Analysis – GBP/USD
Movements in GBP/USD during March suggest that 1.3250 serves as an important support level. Additionally, following yesterday’s news, bulls may find support around 1.3374, where:
→ On 18 March, the market encountered resistance;
→ The upper boundary of the channel was broken yesterday.
On the other hand, the long upper wick on yesterday’s candle (as indicated by the arrow) points to bear activity. Even if the bullish momentum has not yet exhausted itself, further gains in GBP/USD may face resistance at higher levels, including:
→ Psychological level at 1.3500;
→ The high of 10 March;
→ The upper boundary of the expanded double red descending channel.
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Key Highlights
- XPeng achieved its maiden quarterly net profit of 383.2 million yuan (approximately $55.5M) during Q4 2025
- Quarterly revenue surged 38% compared to the prior year, reaching 22.25 billion yuan and exceeding Wall Street expectations
- Gross profit margin expanded to 21.3%, representing a significant improvement from the 14.4% recorded one year prior
- Shares gained roughly 2% during early market hours; American Depositary Receipts advanced 0.8% to $19.30 in pre-market activity
- China’s three leading emerging electric vehicle manufacturers — XPeng, NIO, and Li Auto — have all crossed into profitability territory
The Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer shipped 116,249 vehicles during the fourth quarter, establishing a new company benchmark, although falling short of its previously issued guidance range of 125,000–132,000 units. Despite the delivery miss, the financial outcome caught Wall Street off guard — market analysts had anticipated a net loss approaching 200 million yuan.
Across the entire 2025 fiscal year, the company’s net loss contracted dramatically to 1.14 billion yuan compared to 5.79 billion yuan recorded in 2024. Annual revenue exploded 88% higher to reach 76.72 billion yuan.
The margin expansion narrative proves equally compelling. Fourth-quarter gross margin reached 21.3%, climbing from 14.4% in the comparable period last year. Full-year gross margin registered at 18.9%, a substantial improvement over 2024’s 14.3% figure. Company executives attributed the margin gains to persistent cost optimization initiatives and an enhanced vehicle portfolio mix.
The earnings surprise arrives amid an intense pricing battle within China’s electric vehicle sector. Competitive pressure from domestic rivals has remained fierce, and XPeng shares remain down 12% across the trailing twelve months despite Friday’s positive momentum.
NIO announced its own maiden quarterly profit just last week, supported by record-breaking sales figures. Li Auto, which became profitable before its peers, delivered a modest profit despite experiencing softer sales volumes — highlighting that achieving profitability doesn’t guarantee consistent success in China’s saturated automotive landscape.
Beyond vehicle sales, XPeng has been expanding its technological footprint. The automaker recently introduced its VLA 2.0 autonomous-driving platform, developed using proprietary silicon, with worldwide rollout scheduled for 2027.
The company also intends to introduce three robotaxi variants this year targeting ride-sharing operations throughout China, with pilot programs anticipated to commence later in 2026.
Expansion Into Robotaxis and Humanoid Robotics
XPeng has been strategically repositioning itself as what management describes as a “physical AI company,” advancing into autonomous taxi services and humanoid robotics alongside its primary electric vehicle operations. While these represent longer-term strategic initiatives, they’re beginning to materialize with concrete implementation schedules.
First-quarter 2026 projections, however, signal a near-term deceleration. The company anticipates delivering between 61,000 and 66,000 vehicles, generating revenue in the range of 12.20–13.28 billion yuan. This guidance represents a 16% to 23% contraction compared to the corresponding period in the previous year — marking a considerable retreat from fourth-quarter performance levels.
First Quarter 2026 Outlook Indicates Sequential Slowdown
The subdued Q1 delivery projection mirrors customary seasonal patterns in Chinese automotive demand following robust year-end purchasing activity. XPeng management has not indicated any fundamental business concerns, characterizing the softness as consistent with typical first-quarter dynamics.
XPeng American Depositary Receipts traded 0.8% higher at $19.30 during premarket hours on Friday in response to the earnings announcement.
As the S&P 500 chart (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) shows, the index dropped below the 6,570 level yesterday for the first time in 2026. As a result, the equity market may be on track to post a fourth consecutive weekly decline, closing below its 200-day moving average.
Why Are Equities Falling?
Bearish sentiment is likely being driven by the ongoing military conflict in the Middle East:
→ Elevated oil prices are fuelling expectations of a renewed inflationary surge. This suggests the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer (as reinforced by Powell’s remarks this week), putting pressure on both the economy and corporate performance.
→ Investors are also concerned that the United States could become drawn into a prolonged conflict with Iran, which may pose significant challenges for the country, despite efforts by officials to calm market sentiment.
According to Trading Economics:
→ US President Donald Trump stated that the US is not considering deploying ground troops to the Middle East;
→ Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted that the Iranian regime could face internal collapse;
→ Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel may refrain from further strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure, suggesting the conflict could end sooner than expected.
Technical Analysis of the S&P 500
On 11 March, we analysed the index chart and noted that the lower boundary of the broader channel was acting as support (point A), while the median line served as resistance (as indicated by the arrow).
Since then, selling pressure has led to:
→ the formation of a steeper descending trendline (R2);
→ a move down to a new low at point B, below the previously mentioned channel boundary.
From a Smart Money Concepts perspective, it is reasonable to assume that price has entered a Sell-Side Liquidity zone. If so, traders should consider the possibility that the recent bearish breakout below the channel may prove to be false. In that case, the S&P 500 could stage a recovery in the coming sessions, potentially moving back towards the R2 trendline.
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Key Highlights
- Q4 fiscal 2026 revenue reached $86.8M, surpassing Wall Street’s $78M forecast
- Adjusted EBITDA posted $2.3M versus consensus expectations of a ~$6M loss
- Fiscal 2027 revenue outlook of $415M–$440M significantly exceeded the $380M analyst consensus
- Shares surged 22% in after-hours trading to $32.97 following an 8.7% regular session gain
- The stock has climbed 524% over the trailing twelve months
Planet Labs PBC delivered impressive quarterly results on Thursday, triggering a substantial rally in extended-hours trading.
The satellite imaging firm posted fourth-quarter fiscal 2026 revenue of $86.8 million, comfortably exceeding the Street’s $78 million projection compiled by FactSet.
The company’s adjusted EBITDA registered at $2.3 million, a notable outperformance compared to the anticipated loss of approximately $6 million. The results marked a decisive win on both top and bottom lines.
Defense-related entities accounted for roughly 60% of fiscal 2026 revenue. Another 25% originated from other government agencies, while commercial customers made up the remainder.
Chief Executive Will Marshall characterized the period as a “transformational year.” Fourth-quarter revenue expanded 41% compared to the prior-year period, while the company closed the fiscal year with a $900 million backlog — representing 79% year-over-year growth.
Shares had already advanced 8.7% during Thursday’s regular session, while the S&P 500 declined 0.3% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.4%.
In after-hours action, PL surged an additional 22% to reach $32.97. The move pushed the stock’s twelve-month return above 524%.
Prior to the announcement, options activity suggested bullish sentiment. Call volume significantly outweighed put volume, indicating traders were positioning for positive news ahead of the release.
Those directional bets proved prescient as the actual results validated the optimistic positioning.
Forward Guidance Exceeds Expectations
For fiscal 2027, Planet Labs issued revenue guidance ranging from $415 million to $440 million. The analyst community had been modeling $380 million, representing a substantial upside surprise.
The company’s EBITDA outlook for fiscal 2027 came in around $5 million — trailing the $16 million Wall Street consensus. However, investors appeared unconcerned with the profitability metric.
Revenue trajectory remains the primary focus for market participants, and the forward guidance satisfied that appetite.
Twelve months ago, Street estimates for fiscal 2027 revenue stood near $330 million. That figure has now climbed toward $430 million.
Business Catalysts and Growth Drivers
Planet highlighted several operational achievements in its earnings release. The company successfully deployed 40 satellites throughout the fiscal year and entered into a research and development collaboration with Google focused on orbital data center technology.
The firm also referenced a recently secured satellite services agreement with Sweden as evidence of continued commercial momentum.
Through Thursday’s market close, PL shares had appreciated 25.81% year-to-date, before factoring in the after-hours movement.
Average daily volume runs approximately 11.5 million shares. Technical analysis indicators were flashing buy signals entering the earnings announcement.
The company commanded a market capitalization of $8.4 billion prior to the extended-session rally.
Trading at $32.97 in after-hours activity, the stock price reflected strong investor approval of the quarterly performance — especially the revenue outperformance and forward outlook.
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