Crypto World
FDIC, Federal Reserve, and OCC Move to Modernize Regulatory Capital Rules for All US Banks
TLDR:
- Three federal agencies jointly propose modernizing capital rules for banks of all sizes across the U.S.
- Largest banks would use one calculation set instead of two to meet risk-based capital requirements.
- Smaller banks may see moderate capital requirement reductions tied to traditional lending activities.
- All public comments on the three capital framework proposals must be submitted by June 18, 2026.
Regulatory capital framework proposals have been issued by three federal banking agencies for public comment. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, the Federal Reserve Board, and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency jointly released three proposals.
These aim to modernize capital requirements across banks of all sizes. The goal is to better align regulatory capital with risk. Capital levels are expected to modestly decrease but remain well above pre-financial crisis standards.
Largest Banks Face Enhanced Risk-Sensitivity Rules
The first proposal primarily targets the largest, most internationally active banks in the country. It would require these institutions to use one set of calculations instead of two.
This streamlines how banks determine compliance with risk-based capital requirements. The framework would also improve calibration across credit, market, and operational risks.
Under the proposal, market risk rules would apply only to banks with significant trading activity. All other banks would retain the option to voluntarily adopt this approach.
This change aims to reduce burden while improving consistency across banking institutions. Risk sensitivity across the regulatory capital framework would be enhanced as a result.
In a joint release, the FDIC, Federal Reserve, and OCC confirmed that the proposals are designed to benefit institutions of every size.
As stated in their joint release, the agencies are seeking to “modernize the regulatory capital framework for banks of all sizes.”
The statement reflects a broad effort to bring the framework in line with current market conditions. Public comment is being actively encouraged ahead of the June 18, 2026 deadline.
The agencies noted that a decade of experience revealed room for improvement in the current framework. Certain elements could be updated without reducing the safety and soundness of the system.
After the 2008 global financial crisis, regulators substantially increased loss-absorbing capital requirements. Stress testing requirements for large banks were also introduced during that period.
Smaller Banks and Systemic Risk Measurements Under Review
The second proposal applies broadly to all but the largest banking institutions in the system. It would better align capital requirements for traditional lending activities with actual risk.
Modifications to mortgage servicing capital requirements are also part of this proposal. These changes would extend to banks operating under the community bank leverage ratio framework.
Additionally, certain large banks would be required to reflect unrealized gains and losses on securities. This would directly affect their reported regulatory capital levels, subject to a transition period.
The adjustment aims to provide a more accurate picture of a bank’s financial position. Disincentives connected to mortgage origination would also be reduced under this framework.
The agencies further clarified the expected outcome of the combined proposals in their joint statement. They noted that the measures “would modestly reduce capital for large banks and moderately reduce requirements for smaller banks.”
This reflects the more traditional lending activities that community and regional banks typically carry. The reduction is calibrated to align requirements more closely with actual lending risk profiles.
The third proposal, issued solely by the Federal Reserve Board, addresses how systemic risk is measured. It would refine the additional capital requirement for the largest and most complex institutions.
The method for calculating systemic risk buffers would be updated accordingly. Altogether, capital levels across the system would still remain substantially higher than pre-crisis levels.
South Korea’s National Tax Service is seeking to select a private custody provider to handle seized crypto assets after a security lapse resulted in private keys being exposed and assets being transferred by unauthorized entities.
Summary
- South Korea’s National Tax Service is reviewing a plan to appoint a private custodian for seized crypto assets after a wallet recovery phrase leak led to $4.8 million in unauthorized transfers.
- The agency will evaluate custody providers based on security standards, company size, and insurance coverage under the Virtual Asset User Protection Act.
The National Tax Service has begun reviewing a plan to outsource custody of confiscated crypto assets, according to a report from ZDNet Korea.
The latest action follows a security mishap on Feb. 26, when a wallet recovery phrase was exposed in an official press release. Images of a Ledger cold wallet and a sheet of paper showing the mnemonic phrase were published. Subsequently, unauthorized transfers of crypto tokens worth about $4.8 million took place.
As such, the agency will now evaluate candidates based on several factors, including security requirements, company size, and whether the firm holds insurance under South Korea’s Virtual Asset User Protection Act, the report said.
A newly formed task force focused on digital asset management systems will lead the process. The task force is already working on several initiatives, including improving operational manuals covering the full lifecycle of seized assets, from seizure to storage and liquidation. It will also conduct internal assessments and personnel training.
Meanwhile, the task force will also work toward establishing a dedicated division to oversee crypto-related work.
An NTS official cited in the report said responsibilities are split across departments, but added that preparations are underway to create a centralized unit.
The NTS incident is one of the many that have surfaced across South Korea over the past months. At least two other similar incidents were recorded involving law enforcement and other agencies, where seized crypto assets were lost or compromised.
As previously reported by crypto.news, South Korea’s National Police Agency has introduced new guidelines for handling seized cryptocurrencies. Law enforcement agencies would now have to follow standardized procedures when handling wallet addresses, private keys, and storage systems.
Key Highlights
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National Tax Service transitions to external custodians following $4.8M breach.
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Public exposure of seed phrase triggers comprehensive custody reform.
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Custodian selection prioritizes insurance coverage and proven track records.
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Dedicated oversight team will centralize confiscated asset management.
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Reform initiative matches international best practices for digital custody.
Following a significant security incident, South Korea’s National Tax Service has announced plans to engage private custody solutions for managing confiscated digital currencies. The agency inadvertently revealed a wallet’s recovery phrase in publicly released documentation on February 26, enabling unauthorized withdrawals totaling $4.8 million. Officials are implementing comprehensive safeguards to eliminate similar vulnerabilities and enhance asset protection protocols.
The security lapse centered on an insufficiently redacted photograph displaying a Ledger hardware wallet alongside its complete mnemonic recovery sequence. This episode exposed critical gaps in South Korea’s current framework for managing government-controlled digital holdings. The tax authority intends to transfer custody responsibilities to specialized providers equipped with robust security infrastructure and comprehensive insurance policies.
This strategic pivot occurs as regulatory expectations intensify for appropriate virtual asset stewardship. The National Tax Service has established a target completion date within 2026’s first two quarters for finalizing custodian partnerships. The initiative represents South Korea’s commitment to professionalizing its approach to handling seized cryptocurrency holdings.
Evaluation Framework and Administrative Safeguards
The tax agency is constructing comprehensive benchmarks for assessing prospective custody partners. Security qualifications encompass cutting-edge cybersecurity protocols, multi-party authorization systems, and hardened storage infrastructure. Candidates must carry insurance mandated by South Korea’s Virtual Asset User Protection Act, providing safeguards against system breakdowns and operational mishaps.
Company scale and fiscal soundness represent critical evaluation components in South Korea’s vetting framework. Prospective custodians must showcase expertise managing substantial digital currency portfolios for governmental or institutional clientele. Operational clarity, comprehensive audit mechanisms, and robust contingency planning will serve as fundamental prerequisites during the selection phase.
South Korea’s NTS is assembling a dedicated supervisory unit to manage the custodian selection initiative. This team will develop standardized operating procedures, employee education programs, and comprehensive management strategies for confiscated digital holdings. The centralization effort seeks to consolidate functions presently distributed among various administrative units.
Historical Context and Legal Framework
South Korea’s recent custody failure adds to previous incidents, including municipal law enforcement’s loss of 22 Bitcoin. Responding to these setbacks, government authorities initiated a multi-department investigation examining asset management practices and identifying preventive measures. This coordinated response demonstrates a systematic commitment to protecting South Korea’s expanding inventory of confiscated cryptocurrencies.
The Virtual Asset User Protection Act establishes the regulatory foundation supporting South Korea’s custody transformation. This legislation requires insurance coverage, regulatory compliance, and reserve holdings for all authorized service operators. South Korea’s policy direction aligns with worldwide patterns where governmental bodies increasingly depend on specialist custodians for blockchain-based assets.
The forthcoming custody infrastructure will create uniform processes governing seizure activities, secure storage, and eventual liquidation of digital currencies. South Korea plans to strengthen technical capabilities, encompassing wallet administration, cryptographic key management, and distributed ledger surveillance. This framework additionally prepares South Korea to extend professional custody services throughout various governmental departments.
South Korea’s National Tax Service anticipates that engaging private custodians will substantially diminish security vulnerabilities and procedural breakdowns. This strategic shift demonstrates enhanced institutional capacity for cryptocurrency-related enforcement activities. The implementation of specialized custody partnerships underscores South Korea’s dedication to secure, compliant administration of seized virtual assets.
Bitcoin (BTC) has endured a 14-month bear market against gold, with the BTC/gold ratio and momentum indicators at historic lows that previously marked cycle bottoms.
Key takeaways:
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The BTC/GOLD ratio is at historic lows as multiple indicators hint at a cycle bottom.
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Bitcoin price must hold $70,000 to avoid a deeper drop over the coming weeks.
BTC/GOLD RSI, MACD print classic reversal signal
Data from TradingView reveals that the relative strength index (RSI) of the BTC/GOLD ratio has begun climbing.
The weekly RSI reached its most oversold level of 21 in mid-February, signaling fading bearish momentum.
Related: Bitcoin tests old 2021 top as gold falls to six-week lows under $4.7K
Similarly, the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator has dropped to its lowest level ever and is about to produce a bullish cross.
Note that previous bullish crosses, particularly coming after the RSI has recovered from oversold conditions, have marked macro bottoms for the ratio.
This ultimately led to 280%-620% Bitcoin price breakout against gold, as seen in 2019, 2021, and 2023.
The RSI has now recovered to 33 from 21 in mid-February. When combined with a buy signal on the MACD, the picture begins to resemble previous cycles.
“Bottom is in for $BTC vs Gold,” technical analyst James Easto said in an X post on Friday, adding that the “stage is set” for Bitcoin’s recovery.
The last time Bitcoin bottomed against gold was in November 2022. It marked the beginning of a 700% BTC price rally to its current all-time high of $126,000.
Analysts at GeoMetric said the past 3 BTC/GOLD bear markets have taken between 12-14 months, with the drawdowns ranging from 75% to 84%.
About 13 months have elapsed in the current cycle, which has “so far gone down 81%, surpassing the 2021 bear market,” the analysts said, adding:
“I think there is a solid case for a potential bottom here.”
Investor and analyst Crypto Fergani echoed both scenarios discussed above saying:
“For over 13 years, we’ve seen the same pattern: Bitcoin enters a bear market against gold that lasts roughly 400 days. During that time, the RSI falls into deeply oversold territory. Historically, these phases have always marked the bottom.”
Bitcoin price must hold above $70,000
Meanwhile, BTC/USD remains cautiously bullish as long as it holds the $68,000-$70,000 support zone. This is where the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) and 50-day simple moving average sit.
The 200-week EMA forms a key support band for BTC price during bear markets, and analysts warn that its reliability could be tested on Sunday’s weekly close.
Bitcoin analyst AlphaBTC said he had faith that Bitcoin will recover to $80,000 before dropping toward $50,000, as long as the price stayed above the weekly low at $68,800.
“I don’t want to see this week’s low lost, otherwise it’s going to break back down to range lows or lower!”
As Cointelegraph reported, holding $70,000 would align with a previous fractal recovery path, opening a move toward $76,000-$80,000.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
Crypto World
Bitcoin (BTC) price holds steady, with one analyst seeing the upside emerging: Crypto Daybook Americas
By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
Bitcoin has stabilized above $70,000. Its relative strength is noteworthy given the selloff over the week, which saw it drop from over $75,000.
Most assets saw sharp downturns over the period as the conflict in Iran escalated, damaging vital energy infrastructure. A hotter-than-expected February U.S. PPI print compounded the effect.
Traditional havens, including gold and silver, also tumbled while Brent crude surged above $110 a barrel owing to supply disruptions caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
The Fed didn’t help. While the U.S. central bank held interest rates steady on Wednesday, as expected, its tone turned hawkish. The conflict’s effects have damped rate-cut expectations, and, in fact, the perceived odds of rate increases surge from 8% to top 24% on prediction markets.
André Dragosch, head of research for Europe at Bitwise, told CoinDesk the bitcoin sits at the intersection of two powerful and opposing forces, and that the balance may already be tipping in the token’s favour.
On one side, rising inflation expectations are supportive, Dragosch said. Bitcoin bull runs have historically aligned with expansions in the ISM Manufacturing Index, which rose sharply this year, and rising inflation expectations.
“This combination of rising economic activity and inflation expectations is probably one of the key reasons why bitcoin recently managed to outperform other traditional assets like gold and US equities,” he said. “Bitcoin is also generally less interest rate-sensitive than gold, which is why it wasn’t so much affected by the rise in bond yields. “
On the other hand, tighter financial conditions are a headwind. Bitcoin, however, may have been acting as the canary in what Dragosch called the “macro coal mine.”
“Bitcoin appears to have already priced in much of this tightening, exhibiting a record “macro discount” and front-running the recent deterioration in forward-looking indicators,” Dragosch said.
Looking ahead, a key catalyst will remain improving financial conditions. That means the conflict in the Middle East ending and the Strait of Hormuz reopening, even as developments in the crypto space show growing adoption. Stay alert!
Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today
What to Watch
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.
- Crypto
- Macro
- March 20, 8:30 a.m.: Canada PPI YoY (Prev. 5.4%); MoM (Prev. 2.7%)
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
- March 20: BitFuFu (FUFU), pre-market, $0.01
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.
- Governance votes & calls
- Lightchain AI DAO is voting on a temporary 90-day team authority proposal, which grants the core team short-term operational authority to make day-to-day and strategic decisions. Voting ends March 22.
- Unlocks
- March 20: LayerZero (ZRO) to unlock 5.64% of its circulating supply worth $52.45 million.
- Token Launches
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.
Market Movements
- BTC is up 0.29% from 4 p.m. ET Thursday at $70,608.19 (24hrs: +0.69%)
- ETH is down 0.55% at $2,148.07 (24hrs: -1.14%)
- CoinDesk 20 is up 0.34% at 2,044.85 (24hrs: unchanged)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 2 bps at 2.76%
- BTC funding rate is at -0.0020% (-2.1703% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is down 0.38% at 99.70
- Gold futures are up 1.58% at $4,673.60
- Silver futures are up 1.75% at $72.14
- Nikkei 225 closed down 3.38% at 53,372.53
- Hang Seng closed down 0.88% at 25,277.32
- FTSE 100 is down 2.16% at 10,082.61
- Euro Stoxx 50 is down 1.71% at 5,638.54
- DJIA closed on Thursday down 0.44% at 46,021.43
- S&P 500 closed down 0.27% at 6,606.49
- Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.28% at 22,090.69
- S&P/TSX Composite closed down 1.42% at 31,854.98
- S&P 40 Latin America closed up 0.22% at 3,466.80
- U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 2 bps at 4.28%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.52% at 6,625.50
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.68% at 24,412.50
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are down 0.43% at 46,140.00
Bitcoin Stats
- BTC Dominance: 58.90% (0.18%)
- Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03043 (-0.49%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 925 EH/s
- Hashprice (spot): $30.68
- Total fees: 2.95 BTC / $206,875
- CME Futures Open Interest: 117,190 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 15.2 oz.
- BTC vs gold market cap: 4.72%
Technical Analysis
- BTC/SPX may be showing signs of bottoming out – with RSI bouncing off from oversold levels and the line maintaining its trend.
- The ratio is currently below the 50-week exponential moving average, which implies more range-bound performance until we see a breakout above the average.
Crypto Equities
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Thursday at $202.91 (+0.31%), -0.45% at $201.99 in pre-market
- Circle Internet Group (CRCL): closed at $128.33 (-3.40%), -2.20% at $125.51
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $21.05 (-2.46%), -0.71% at $20.90
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $9.22 (+3.36%), -0.33% at $9.19
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $14.14 (+0.28%), +0.28% at $14.18
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $16.48 (+0.80%)
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.83 (-0.51%), -0.31% at $9.80
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $7.73 (-4.57%)
- CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF (WGMI): closed at $39.10 (+0.00%)
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $39.60 (+3.45%), -0.98% at $39.21
Crypto Treasury Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $138.24 (-1.65%), +0.54% at $138.99
- Strive Asset Management (ASST): closed at $10.26 (+2.24%), +0.49% at $10.31
- SharpLink (SBET): closed at $7.68 (-2.41%), +1.04% at $7.76
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $1.07 (+0.00%), +1.87% at $1.09
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.17 (-0.85%)
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs
- Daily net flows: -$90.2 million
- Cumulative net flows: $56.26 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.29 million
Spot ETH ETFs
- Daily net flows: -$136.4 million
- Cumulative net flows: $11.8 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~5.76 million
Source: Farside Investors
While You Were Sleeping
South Korea’s National Tax Service (NTS) is moving to select a private custody provider for seized crypto assets after a February press release exposed a wallet recovery phrase and triggered the unauthorized transfer of confiscated tokens.
On Feb. 26, the NTS accidentally exposed a crypto wallet seed phrase in an official press release, resulting in the unauthorized transfer of crypto tokens valued at about $4.8 million. The release included an image of a Ledger cold wallet and a sheet of paper showing the mnemonic phrase without being blurred.
Citing people familiar with the matter, ZDNet Korea reported that the agency is reviewing a plan to outsource custody of confiscated crypto and is drafting selection criteria for providers. The NTS is reportedly aiming to select a provider within the first half of 2026.
The agency plans to evaluate candidates based on several factors, including security requirements, company size, and whether the firm holds insurance under South Korea’s Virtual Asset User Protection Act, ZDNet Korea reported.
The move shows South Korean authorities are trying to formalize custody of seized crypto after a series of handling failures exposed weaknesses in how confiscated digital assets are stored and managed.
New task force to oversee custody provider selection process
The custody selection will reportedly be led by a newly-formed task force focused on advancing digital asset management systems.
The task force is reportedly working on several initiatives, including improving operational manuals covering the full life cycle of seized assets, from seizure to storage and liquidation. It would also conduct assessments and personnel training.
Related: South Korea opposition party pushes to scrap planned 22% crypto tax
The group is also preparing to establish a dedicated division to oversee crypto-related work.
An NTS official said that since crypto is relatively new, responsibilities are split across departments. However, preparations are underway to create a centralized unit, ZDNet Korea reported.
NTS wallet seed leak prompts inter-agency probe
The NTS’s wallet leak and a separate custody failure in which Seoul’s Gangnam police allegedly lost 22 BTC seized prompted authorities to conduct an inter-agency review of seized crypto assets.
On March 1, South Korea’s Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy and Finance, Koo Yun-cheol, announced a cross-agency probe on how the government handles seized digital assets.
Magazine: Metaplanet’s Japan Bitcoin bet, Bithumb ordered suspension: Asia Express
Gemini Crypto is getting sued.
Shareholders filed a class-action in Manhattan federal court claiming the exchange lied to investors during its September IPO.
The target is the company itself and the Winklevoss twins. The allegation is that Gemini raised capital on a growth story, then quietly ditched it for prediction markets and cost-cutting the moment the money was in.
The stock tells the rest of the story. From a post-IPO high of $40 down to around $6. That is an 80% collapse, and now the people who bought in want answers.
- Lawsuit Details: Plaintiff Marc Methvin filed the class-action in Manhattan, accusing Gemini executives of misleading shareholders about the company’s business model.
- Stock Collapse: After pricing its IPO at $28 and touching $40, Gemini shares handled on Nasdaq have plummeted more than 80% to trade near $6.
- Strategic Pivot: The complaint alleges Gemini secretly planned to pivot from its core exchange product to a prediction market model while cutting staff and exiting key regions.
The Mechanics of the Bait-and-Switch Allegation: What the Lawsuit Claims
The lawsuit comes down to one thing: what Gemini told investors and what it actually did.
Gemini listed on the Nasdaq in September at $28. The pitch was global expansion, user growth, and a central exchange built to scale internationally. Shareholders bought in. Then the story changed fast.
By November, executives were still talking up key global markets. By February, the Winklevoss brothers scrapped the entire narrative.
They announced Gemini 2.0, a pivot toward prediction markets, alongside a 25% workforce reduction. Then came the exits. EU, UK, Australia. Every market flagged as a growth opportunity, gone.
The plaintiff argues this was not a reaction to market conditions. It was a planned strategy shift that made the IPO materials misleading from the start.
If internal communications contradict what was in the prospectus, that is a serious problem. Dismissing a misleading disclosure charge is hard when the paper trail works against you.
The regulatory environment does not help Gemini here either. When shareholder litigation runs on securities law, and securities law does not bend for sentiment. This is also a different fight from the Earn program settlement. That was about unregistered securities. This is about whether investors were sold a business model that was already being abandoned.
The pivot to prediction markets trades a large addressable market for a speculative niche. Gemini capped its own ceiling and the stock reflects it.
Discover: The best new crypto in the world
The post Gemini Crypto Sued Over Post-IPO Strategy Shift and Stock Decline appeared first on Cryptonews.
In a survey released on Thursday, Ripple said 72% of more than 1,000 global finance leaders believe companies must offer digital asset solutions to stay competitive.
The survey found stablecoins were the most prominent use case, with 74% of respondents saying they can boost cash flow and unlock trapped capital.
The report polled around 1,000 finance firms globally, including banks, asset managers, fintechs and corporates, on adoption, stablecoins, tokenization and custody priorities.
The findings suggest many financial firms are focusing less on whether to engage with digital assets and more on how to buy, build or partner for the infrastructure needed to support them.
Ripple said the shift toward digital assets is being driven by evolving regulation, growing interest from large banks, increased use of fintech services and the rise of stablecoins.
Stablecoins top the survey’s digital asset use cases
Respondents showed the strongest interest in stablecoins. “That unanimity makes it clear that finance leaders are thinking about stablecoins as more than just a new way to execute payments,” Ripple said, adding that institutions increasingly view them as tools for treasury management.
The survey suggests fintech firms are leading adoption. Around 47% of fintech respondents said they plan to build their own digital asset solutions, compared to 14% of corporates. In contrast, 74% of corporates said they intend to work with external providers.
Banks and asset managers prioritize digital asset custody
The survey showed growing interest in tokenization, with banks and asset managers prioritizing digital asset custody, or secure storage. Some 89% of those evaluating tokenization partners cited secure storage as a top concern, while token lifecycle management and primary distribution ranked at 82% and 80%, respectively.
Bank respondents also indicated strong demand for advisory support, with 85% citing pre-issuance structuring as important, compared to 76% of asset managers.
Related: 74% of institutions expect crypto prices to rise in 12 months: Survey
“This indicates that many institutions are seeking experienced partners to guide implementation alongside technology deployment,” Ripple said.
When choosing infrastructure partners, 97% of respondents highlighted the importance of security certifications such as ISO and SOC II.
The survey underscores that digital assets are no longer optional. “Most finance leaders aren’t debating digital assets anymore,” Ripple said in a post on X, adding: “They’re figuring out how to build with them and who to build with.”
Magazine: Are DeFi devs liable for the illegal activity of others on their platforms?
XRP price rebounded back above $1.45 on Friday after bulls managed to defend the $1.40 support during the market-wide bloodbath over the past day.
Summary
- XRP rebounded above $1.45 after defending $1.40 support, despite broader market weakness driven by geopolitical tensions and risk-off sentiment.
- Whale accumulation of over 200 million XRP and $150 million in institutional holdings signals renewed interest, alongside speculation of a potential XRP treasury.
- Technical setup shows a descending channel and a rounded bottom, with a breakout above $1.69 potentially opening upside toward $2.1.
After falling nearly 11% from its weekly high to $1.45 on March 19, XRP (XRP) price bounced back to $1.45 at the last check on Friday, March 20.
XRP price fell as the broader crypto market tanked amid escalating war concerns in the Middle East, which has left investors to move to a derisking mode as they turn toward gold and other safe-haven assets to park their capital until concerns cool off.
Despite the recent volatility, a few key developments could support a potential recovery for the asset.
First, whales have returned to accumulation mode in recent weeks, a major signal that often influences retail sentiment.
In a recent X post, market analyst Ali Martinez shared on-chain data that shows XRP whales have accumulated at least 200 million XRP over the past two weeks.
Second, Goldman Sachs, one of the world’s leading investment banks, has now become the largest institutional holder of XRP in the U.S. The banking giant reportedly holds over $150 million worth of XRP across four spot XRP funds, more than the combined holdings of the next 29 institutional holders in line.
Such massive endorsements from prominent financial institutions could drive greater appeal for the token as it transitions into a mainstream investment vehicle.
Third, investor hype is also building over an XRP treasury reserve being established by Evernorth. Such a move could mirror the approach taken by Michael Saylor with Bitcoin at Strategy and help to solidify XRP as a cornerstone institutional asset.
The firm said it will be the largest XRP holder after its public listing. The strategic move could give XRP more visibility and prestige in the eyes of traditional investors who are looking for regulated exposure to the crypto market.
On the daily chart, XRP price has respected a descending parallel channel pattern in which it has been trading since mid-July 2025. A breakout from such a bullish reversal pattern has typically been a precursor to a sustained rally as it signals the end of a long-term corrective phase.
More recently, XRP price has also been forming a rounded bottom pattern, which has historically been followed by a gradual shift from bearish to bullish sentiment as buyers slowly regain control.
For now, the key resistance level to watch is $1.69, which serves as the neckline of the rounded bottom pattern. A move past this point would confirm both a breakout from the pattern and the descending channel at the same time.
A decisive break above this level could lift XRP up to $2.1, a target that has been calculated by adding the height of the rounded bottom to the point at which the breakout occurs.
Momentum indicators seem to present a strengthening case for the bulls. Notably, the MACD lines have pointed upwards while the Aroon Up at 78.57% sits far above the Aroon Down at 14.29%, also confirming that the upward trend is currently gaining significant steam.
Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.
Crypto World
Bitcoin consolidates as traders hedge and macro uncertainty lingers: Crypto Markets Today
Crypto markets were little changed Friday, with the CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) virtually unchanged. Bitcoin has gained just 0.8% since midnight UTC and ether (ETH) added less than 0.1%.
Crude oil prices dropped below $100 on Thursday and were recently trading at $96 per barrel as the U.S. was said to be assessing whether it should release sanctioned Iranian oil to increase supply and reduce pressure on prices.
This gave a momentary boost to risk assets with U.S. equities showing signs of recovery, but that move has now reversed. Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 futures are down by 0.6% and 0.4%, respectively, since midnight, indicating continued market fragility.
Precious metals are now trading back in line with crypto after a ferocious rally to record highs at the start of the year. Gold is at $4,660 after putting in a top at $5,600 on Jan. 29.
Derivatives positioning
- Bitcoin open interest (OI) stabilized at $16.9 billion, roughly mirroring last week’s $17 billion and suggesting speculative activity has leveled off.
- Funding rates across most platforms have returned to a neutral range of 0%-10%, with the negative rates observed over the previous two days probably fueling an initial relief rally through short covering before contributing to the recent crash.
- The three-month annualized basis is holding steady at 2.8%, a sign that institutional conviction remains cautious.
- The options market reflects defensive positioning: The 24-hour call-to-put volume split has shifted to 43/56.
- Risk aversion is tightening, with the one-week 25-delta skew rising to 14% from 9%, notably increasing the cost of downside protection.
- The implied volatility term structure confirms a sharp front-end spike into backwardation, a signal that traders are bracing for an immediate, high-impact volatility event, prioritizing short-term hedging over stable mid-term growth expectations.
- Long-dated implied volatility (IV) remains anchored near 50%,
- Coinglass data shows $308 million in 24-hour liquidations, with a 63-37 split between longs and shorts. BTC (93 million), ETH ($81 million) and others ($19 million) were the leaders in terms of notional liquidations.
- The Binance liquidation heatmap indicates $68,500 as a core liquidation level to monitor in case of a price drop.
Token talk
- The altcoin market continues to show signs of optimism despite many of the crypto majors remaining trapped in a tight trading range since early February.
- Quant (QNT) is up by 7.5% since midnight following a spot listing on popular trading app Robinhood, while AI token FET has extended its rich vein of form, rising by 6.5%.
- CoinMarketCap’s Altcoin Season index is currently at 46/100, falling back slightly but still well above February’s lows, when it languished in the low 20s.
- While the CoinDesk 20 (CD20) Index is flat since midnight, the altcoin-dominant CoinDesk 80 (CD80) is up by 0.3%, indicating a slight outperformance.
Yesterday, the Bank of England’s decision had a significant impact on the pound, which strengthened against other currencies. Although the Official Bank Rate remained unchanged at 3.75%, the market was surprised by the “hawkish” signals, which sharply contrasted with the dovish statements made at the February meeting.
According to media reports:
→ None of the nine committee members voted to cut the rate;
→ The phrase stating that the rate “could be lowered in the future” was removed from the final statement.
Thus, the Bank of England indicated that it is ready to raise rates if the energy shock caused by the Middle East conflict accelerates inflation.
The hawkish stance contributed to the pound rising above the upper boundary of the channel in which it had been trading since late January.
Technical Analysis – GBP/USD
Movements in GBP/USD during March suggest that 1.3250 serves as an important support level. Additionally, following yesterday’s news, bulls may find support around 1.3374, where:
→ On 18 March, the market encountered resistance;
→ The upper boundary of the channel was broken yesterday.
On the other hand, the long upper wick on yesterday’s candle (as indicated by the arrow) points to bear activity. Even if the bullish momentum has not yet exhausted itself, further gains in GBP/USD may face resistance at higher levels, including:
→ Psychological level at 1.3500;
→ The high of 10 March;
→ The upper boundary of the expanded double red descending channel.
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