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S&P 500 Analysis: Index Falls to Year-to-Date Low

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S&P 500 Analysis: Index Falls to Year-to-Date Low

As the S&P 500 chart (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) shows, the index dropped below the 6,570 level yesterday for the first time in 2026. As a result, the equity market may be on track to post a fourth consecutive weekly decline, closing below its 200-day moving average.

Why Are Equities Falling?

Bearish sentiment is likely being driven by the ongoing military conflict in the Middle East:

→ Elevated oil prices are fuelling expectations of a renewed inflationary surge. This suggests the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer (as reinforced by Powell’s remarks this week), putting pressure on both the economy and corporate performance.

→ Investors are also concerned that the United States could become drawn into a prolonged conflict with Iran, which may pose significant challenges for the country, despite efforts by officials to calm market sentiment.

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According to Trading Economics:

→ US President Donald Trump stated that the US is not considering deploying ground troops to the Middle East;
→ Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted that the Iranian regime could face internal collapse;
→ Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel may refrain from further strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure, suggesting the conflict could end sooner than expected.

Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

On 11 March, we analysed the index chart and noted that the lower boundary of the broader channel was acting as support (point A), while the median line served as resistance (as indicated by the arrow).

Since then, selling pressure has led to:
→ the formation of a steeper descending trendline (R2);
→ a move down to a new low at point B, below the previously mentioned channel boundary.

From a Smart Money Concepts perspective, it is reasonable to assume that price has entered a Sell-Side Liquidity zone. If so, traders should consider the possibility that the recent bearish breakout below the channel may prove to be false. In that case, the S&P 500 could stage a recovery in the coming sessions, potentially moving back towards the R2 trendline.

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This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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Ledger hires Circle’s (CRCL) John Andrews as CFO, opens NYC office

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Ledger hires Circle's (CRCL) John Andrews as CFO, opens NYC office

Ledger has appointed a new chief financial officer and opened a New York office as the crypto security firm expands its U.S. presence ahead of a planned public listing.

The company said John Andrews, a former Circle (CRCL) executive, will take on the CFO role. Andrews spent more than two decades in finance and most recently led capital markets and investor relations at the stablecoin issuer. His appointment comes as Ledger positions itself for closer engagement with institutional investors and public markets.

The New York office, backed by a multi-million dollar investment, will serve as a hub for Ledger’s enterprise business. The firm is hiring across institutional and marketing roles as it builds out services for banks, asset managers and other financial firms entering digital assets.

Ledger said the move reflects growing demand for secure infrastructure as more institutions hold and manage crypto.

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The expansion lands as Ledger explores an initial public offering in the United States. The company is reportedly working with major banks including Goldman Sachs, Jefferies and Barclays on a listing that could value the firm at more than $4 billion. CEO Pascal Gauthier has previously pointed to rising revenue tied to an increase in crypto hacks, which has driven demand for secure storage.

Ledger is best known for its hardware wallets, but it has pushed deeper into enterprise services in recent years. Its platform offers tools for institutions to store, manage and trade digital assets with internal controls, similar to how a bank might oversee client funds across multiple approvals.

The company says it secures a large share of retail-held stablecoins and has sold more than 8 million devices globally. Still, its track record includes setbacks. A 2020 data breach exposed customer information, and a later exploit in 2023 affected decentralized finance integrations tied to its ecosystem.

Ledger’s U.S. push follows a broader shift in the crypto sector, where firms are again testing public markets after a volatile period. Custodian BitGo (BTGO) recently went public, marking one of the first listings in the sector this year. Tokenization firm Securitize has plans to IPO as soon as it receives the green light from regulators. Meanwhile, crypto exchange Kraken has paused its IPO plans as it waits for better market conditions, CoinDesk reported earlier this week.

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SolarEdge (SEDG) Stock Jumps 4% on Jefferies Upgrade Amid European Energy Crisis

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SEDG Stock Card

Key Takeaways

  • Jefferies elevated SolarEdge from Underperform to Hold while increasing the price target from $30 to $49
  • European TTF natural gas prices have jumped approximately 94% amid recent geopolitical tensions
  • During the previous energy crisis, SolarEdge’s European sales expanded from $630M in 2020 to $1.9B by 2023
  • The firm boosted its 2027 and 2028 revenue projections by 17% and 19% respectively
  • SEDG shares have surged roughly 60% year-to-date, approaching the 52-week peak of $48.60

SolarEdge (SEDG) shares advanced approximately 4% during Friday’s premarket session following an analyst upgrade and improved price outlook from Jefferies.


SEDG Stock Card
SolarEdge Technologies, Inc., SEDG

Jefferies shifted its stance on SEDG from Underperform to Hold while boosting the price objective from $30 to $49 — representing approximately 7.3% potential upside from Thursday’s closing price.

The catalyst behind Jefferies’ revised outlook centers on energy market dynamics. Natural gas prices in Europe, measured by the TTF benchmark, have climbed roughly 94% since the onset of the latest Middle Eastern conflict. Such dramatic price increases historically incentivize consumers and enterprises to transition toward solar and energy storage solutions as hedges against volatile energy expenses.

This scenario has played out previously. During 2022, when Russian natural gas supply disruptions triggered soaring European energy costs, solar installations accelerated significantly. SolarEdge‘s revenue from European markets expanded from $630 million in 2020 to $1.9 billion by 2023.

Jefferies acknowledges that a complete replay of that surge seems unlikely. Europe’s renewable energy infrastructure has matured considerably, and electricity prices have remained comparatively stable despite rising gas costs. Any uptick in demand will likely be more gradual this time around.

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Nevertheless, the investment firm believes SolarEdge is better positioned than before. Inventory adjustments that previously pressured financial performance have largely resolved, and SEDG has expanded its footprint in commercial and industrial segments while maintaining residential market share.

Updated Revenue Projections

Jefferies increased its revenue expectations for 2027 by 17% and for 2028 by 19%. The 2026 forecast remained essentially flat, with the firm noting continued customer hesitancy amid prevailing macroeconomic uncertainty.

Despite the upgrade, Jefferies refrained from issuing a Buy recommendation. Valuation concerns remain central to this cautious stance. SEDG has rallied approximately 60% in 2026 thus far and currently trades around 18x projected 2027 EV/EBITDA — marginally above comparable companies. Jefferies suggests the market has already incorporated expectations of improved demand and competitive positioning into current pricing.

The wider analyst community maintains a reserved posture. Among 25 analysts tracking SEDG, just one recommends buying, 18 rate it a Hold, and six suggest selling. MarketBeat’s consensus lands at “Reduce” with an average price target of $29.09 — substantially below current trading levels.

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Latest Quarterly Performance

SolarEdge’s latest quarterly results exceeded Wall Street expectations. The company reported EPS of -$0.14, surpassing the consensus estimate of -$0.19. Revenue reached $333.8 million against forecasts of $330.3 million, marking a 70.9% year-over-year increase.

Net margin remains in negative territory at -34.23%, and analysts anticipate full-year EPS of -$4.54 for the current fiscal period.

Institutional investors control approximately 95% of outstanding shares. Multiple major stakeholders expanded their holdings in recent quarters, with UBS Group notably increasing its position by 234.8% during Q3.

SEDG commenced Friday trading at $45.66, marginally below its 52-week high of $48.60.

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Bitcoin’s Next RSI Showdown Is Brewing With a Higher Low at Stake

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Bitcoin's Next RSI Showdown Is Brewing With a Higher Low at Stake

Bitcoin RSI signals approached a key moment as analysis said that a higher low was needed next to allow bullish BTC price continuation.

Bitcoin (BTC) is hinting at its next long-term bottom as a key leading indicator preps a higher low.

Key points:

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  • Bitcoin RSI is approaching a critical long-term position for the fate of the bear market.

  • RSI needs a weekly bullish divergence to repeat its early-2023 rebound.

  • A trader says he is “not in a rush” to reenter the market with the comedown from all-time highs just a few months old.

Bitcoin RSI: All eyes on higher low

New analysis covering relative strength index (RSI) data on BTC/USD concludes it could soon be “time to pay attention.”

Bitcoin bear-market bottoms often follow the start of a bullish divergence with RSI on weekly time frames.

For trader Jelle, current market behavior is following historical trends, and Bitcoin’s next inflection point may be around the corner.

“When $BTC’s weekly RSI makes a higher low again, it’s time to pay attention,” he wrote on X.

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A classic bullish divergence locks in when RSI makes a higher low while price makes lower lows. Jelle, however, says that price has room to maneuver and still preserve the emerging recovery.

“Doesn’t matter if BTC makes a higher low, equal low, or lower low,” he continued. 

“When RSI starts moving higher again, the bottom is very close – or already in.”

BTC/USD one-week chart with RSI data. Source: Jelle/X

BTC price bear flag still in play

RSI last flipped bullish at the end of Bitcoin’s 2022 bear market, and its signals preceded a period of upside that continued for over a year.

Related: Bitcoin tests old 2021 top as gold falls to six-week lows under $4.7K

At the time, talk also focused on reclaiming the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) as support, something that occurred in March 2023. 

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As Cointelegraph reported, the 200-week EMA was only lost again last month, with analysis calling the trend line “unreliable.” 

BTC/USD one-week chart with RSI, 200-week EMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Jelle, meanwhile, is among those speculating that previous cycles demand a much longer bear market than the few months that have elapsed so far.

“Previous bear markets all lasted around a year. $BTC topped just 23 weeks ago, and looks like this,” he told X followers. 

“I’m not in a rush to buy back in.”

BTC/USD chart. Source: Jelle/X

A separate chart drew attention to a possible bear flag formation under development — a sign of weakness that could result in a fresh support failure in a manner similar to January.