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Crypto World

BTC faces new headwind from rising rate hike odds

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Crypto sentiment gauge hits FTX-era lows as 'extreme fear' reaches a 9 reading

Only weeks ago, the interest rate debate in the U.S. centered on just how many Federal Reserve rate cuts there would be in 2026. But as the economy shows only faint signs of slowing, inflation remains above the central bank’s 2% target, and oil prices are up 50% in three weeks, rate traders are beginning to contemplate a rate hike as soon as April.

According to CME FedWatch, the chances of the Fed tightening policy at its next meeting in April have risen to 12%. That’s up from 0% one week ago and an even sharper reversal from two months ago, when the conventional wisdom said a rate cut was likely that month.

February data showed annual headline inflation running at 2.4% and core at 2.5%. And those numbers were prior to the Iran war and subsequent 50% surge in oil prices.

The long end of the bond curve has sold off sharply alongside, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury note up another 10 basis points on Friday to 4.38% versus under 4% at the start of March.

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The bond selloff is global. In the U.K., 10-year gilt yields have jumped above 5%, up 15% in the past month, and are at their highest since 2008.

Bitcoin ahead of the curve?

The major stock market averages haven’t made any loud moves since the war began, but the selling is beginning to add up. Down another 0.9% today, the S&P 500 is on track for a fourth straight weekly decline and now lower by more than 5% since late February. The Nasdaq is down similarly, including a 1.2% drop on Friday.

Precious metals — which ran massively higher in the weeks ahead the war — have sold off since. Trading at about $5,500 per ounce at the start of the month, gold on Friday was priced at $4,569. Silver has crumbled to $69.50 per ounce from $95.

“Bitcoin has once again acted as the canary in the macro coal mine,” said Andre Dragosch, European Head of Research at Bitwise. “At current levels, bitcoin is already pricing a recession, while many traditional assets are not,” he added.

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Bitcoin continues to hover around $70,000, and — up modestly since the start of March — remains one of the best-performing assets since the war began.

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Crypto World

Bitcoin clings to $69k support as ETFs flip and fear index sinks

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Bitcoin traders face possible 70% drawdown with $38k target in play

Bitcoin is holding just below $70k after a hawkish FOMC, ETF outflows, and a shift to Fear, with weak long conviction but easing miner selling and difficulty.

Bitcoin is trading above $69,900 on Friday evening, clinging to key support levels after a bruising week shaped by the Federal Reserve’s hawkish tone, a reversal in ETF flows, and broad risk-off sentiment across global markets. The crypto Fear & Greed Index sits at 28 — deep in Fear territory — as investors weigh the durability of BTC’s recovery against a deteriorating macro backdrop.

The week’s defining moment came on Wednesday, when the Fed held rates steady at its March FOMC meeting but signaled that fewer rate cuts are likely in 2026 than previously expected. Bitcoin fell roughly 5% in the immediate aftermath, sliding from near $74,000 to test the $70,000 level, as institutional players moved to de-risk. The reaction was compounded by a sharp reversal in ETF flows: after a highly bullish seven-day inflow streak that had brought in over $1.1 billion, US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a $129 million net outflow on Wednesday alone — snapping the positive run and rattling sentiment.

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The sell-off dragged the broader crypto market with it. Ethereum and Solana each fell 5–6% in tandem, confirming that Bitcoin’s near-term correlation with risk assets remains elevated. With BTC’s 30-day correlation to the S&P 500 sitting at 0.74 — the highest of 2026 — the asset is currently trading less like a macro hedge and more like a high-beta tech proxy, a dynamic that leaves it exposed to any further deterioration in equity markets.

Despite the fear reading, there are structural factors that have prevented a more severe breakdown. Open interest data tracked by CoinGlass shows that during yesterday’s dip to $68,750, shorts were actively adding positions — forming what the firm described as a “clean short position buildup.” The price has since rebounded, though OI has not increased meaningfully, suggesting range-bound rather than trending conditions. The lack of new long entry confirms that conviction on the buy side remains cautious, but the shorts have also not fully pressed their advantage.

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On the supply side, the picture is more constructive. Miner selling pressure — a persistent headwind throughout the first quarter — is showing signs of fading, with net miner outflows down 82% from their February peak. A significant difficulty adjustment tonight, expected to drop ~7.5%, will further ease cost pressure on the mining industry and reduce near-term forced selling from that cohort.

For now, Bitcoin finds itself in a holding pattern: above the critical $66,827 level where over $1.87 billion in leveraged longs sit exposed, but well below the $73,757 resistance that would trigger a short squeeze. With macro uncertainty elevated, geopolitical tensions unresolved, and sentiment firmly in fear, the burden of proof lies with the bulls to demonstrate fresh conviction before the market can credibly call the bottom in.

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Bhutan has sold over $110m in Bitcoin as sovereign stack drops 65%

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El Salvador bets on $100m tokenized SME equity via Stakiny

Bhutan has sold over $110m in Bitcoin in 2026, cutting sovereign holdings by about 65% from their peak as Druk Holding shifts from mining-led accumulation to steady liquidation.

Summary

  • Druk Holding & Investments has offloaded more than $110m in BTC this year, including a 973 BTC transfer worth about $72.3m on March 17–18 routed partly through QCP Capital and Binance.
  • Bhutan’s stash has shrunk from roughly 13,000 BTC (over $1.4b and 40% of GDP at peak) to around 5,400 BTC worth about $374m, with no inflows over $100k in more than a year, implying mining has largely stopped.
  • The kingdom’s methodical $5–10m clip sales, built on hydropower-funded mining since 2019, now act as a recurring sovereign overhang for Bitcoin just as macro conditions and sentiment remain fragile.

The Kingdom of Bhutan has quietly become one of the most closely watched sovereign Bitcoin sellers of 2026, with its state investment arm offloading more than $110 million worth of BTC since the start of the year — a systematic drawdown that has cut its holdings by 65% from their peak and raised questions about the future of one of crypto’s most unlikely national success stories.

The latest and largest transaction occurred on March 17 and 18, when Druk Holding & Investments — the sovereign wealth fund that manages Bhutan’s digital asset reserves — transferred 973 BTC worth approximately $72.3 million across multiple addresses. Among the recipients was QCP Capital, a Singapore-based institutional trading firm, indicating structured OTC selling designed to minimize market impact rather than distressed dumping onto open exchanges. A portion was also directed toward Binance hot wallets.

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Bhutan’s Bitcoin journey began in 2019, when the country began quietly mining BTC using surplus hydroelectric power from its Himalayan rivers — a near-zero marginal cost energy source that made mining highly profitable even at modest price levels. At its peak, Bhutan held approximately 13,000 BTC, valued at over $1.4 billion — a sum representing more than 40% of the country’s entire gross domestic product at the time. Those holdings have since contracted to roughly 5,400 BTC, worth around $374 million at current prices.

A critical detail flagged by on-chain analytics firm Arkham Intelligence adds a new dimension to the story: Bhutan has not recorded a Bitcoin inflow of over $100,000 in more than a year. This strongly suggests the country has halted or severely curtailed its mining operations, shifting from an accumulation-and-hold strategy to a pure liquidation mode. The reasons remain officially unconfirmed, but analysts have pointed to declining mining profitability following the April 2024 halving, rising operational costs, and competing demands on the country’s hydropower infrastructure.

The selling pattern has been methodical rather than reactive. Bhutan typically transacts in $5–10 million clips, with occasional larger tranches when market conditions are favorable. The $72.3 million move this week is an outlier in size, suggesting either an acceleration of the drawdown timeline or an opportunistic decision to lock in prices near the $71,000 level before further deterioration.

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For the broader market, the sustained presence of sovereign-scale selling at these volumes is a non-trivial headwind. Unlike retail or even institutional fund selling, sovereign liquidations tend to be price-insensitive and recurring — features that can create persistent ceiling pressure on any attempted recovery. As Bitcoin navigates a fragile macro environment with fear sentiment elevated and ETF flows recently reversing, Bhutan’s quiet but relentless selling is one more structural force the bulls must absorb on the path back to new highs.

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Morgan Stanley Pushes Closer to Bitcoin ETF With Amended SEC Filing

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Morgan Stanley Pushes Closer to Bitcoin ETF With Amended SEC Filing

Morgan Stanley filed a second amended S-1 for its proposed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF), detailing seed capital, trading partners and listing plans as the Wall Street bank moves closer to launching the product under the ticker MSBT.

The amended filing says the trust expects to raise $1 million through the sale of 50,000 initial seed shares to its delegated sponsor ahead of listing on NYSE Arca, then use the proceeds to buy Bitcoin (BTC) for the fund. Morgan Stanley said the fund remains subject to regulatory approval before it can begin trading.

The filing lists Jane Street, Virtu Americas and Macquarie Capital as authorized participants, allowing them to create or redeem large blocks of shares and profit from the arbitrage between Bitcoin’s price and the ETF’s share price. This keeps the ETF’s price close to the value of Bitcoin.

Morgan Stanley recommended a 2% to 4% allocation to crypto portfolios for investors and financial advisers in October 2025 and allowed its financial advisors to recommend crypto funds to clients with individual retirement accounts (IRAs) and 401(k)s.

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Morgan Stanley S-1 filing amendment. Source: SEC.gov

“Morgan Stanley is moving from distributing BlackRock’s IBIT to issuing its own product, capturing management fees directly rather than earning distribution commissions,” Marcin Kazmierczak, co-founder of RedStone, told Cointelegraph, adding that the bank’s 15,000 financial advisors will introduce a real “distribution muscle” for the ETF.

Related: Morgan Stanley, other top holders add Bitmine exposure amid sell-off

Wall Street moves closer to crypto funds

The move adds to a broader push by large US financial institutions to expand access to crypto-related products.

On Jan. 5, 2026, the second-largest US bank, Bank of America, began allowing advisers in its wealth management businesses to recommend exposure to four Bitcoin ETFs, which were previously only available upon request, Cointelegraph reported. 

A day earlier, Vanguard, the world’s second-largest asset manager, enabled crypto ETF trading for its clients, reversing its previous stance on digital asset ETFs.

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Related: Wells Fargo sees ‘YOLO’ trade driving $150B into Bitcoin and risk assets

BlackRock, the world’s largest asset management firm, recommended an up to 2% Bitcoin allocation to its clients in December 2024.

Magazine: Bitcoin’s ‘biggest bull catalyst’ would be Saylor’s liquidation — Santiment founder

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