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Analyst warns traders pricing in TACO trade could face a rude awakening

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Crypto Breaking News

Traders are underestimating how deeply the current conflict in the Middle East could reshape the macro backdrop, with some positioning around a so‑called “TACO trade”—short for “Trump always chickens out”—dominating chatter in crypto and broader markets. Nic Puckrin, founder of Coin Bureau, popularized the term to describe a supposed tendency for U.S. leadership to back away from geopolitical flare‑ups. But he cautions that the situation is far more intricate than a single decision by any one leader, and there are no quick exits from a widening conflict.

Oil prices have become a central barometer for the scenario. If crude stays above $100 per barrel, growth in the United States could slow while Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation rises, potentially by as much as one percentage point, according to Puckrin. That dynamic would complicate the Federal Reserve’s already delicate task of steering policy in an environment where inflation remains persistent and growth is uncertain. The risk of stagflation—the painful combination of rising prices with weak growth and employment—emerges as a real possibility if energy costs stay elevated through the second and third quarters.

Key takeaways

  • Oil could stay a decisive driver: Sustained prices above $100 per barrel threaten growth and lift inflation in tandem, increasing stagflation risk.
  • The TACO trade is not a guaranteed play: While the term captures a belief in limited appetite for geopolitical escalation, experts warn that policymakers and markets should expect a more complex, drawn‑out conflict with no easy exit.
  • Strait of Hormuz disruption compounds the risk: Prolonged disruption through the vital chokepoint raises the energy price floor and feeds into broader inflation dynamics.
  • Policy path remains uncertain: The Fed held rates at 3.5%–3.75%, with market odds of a near‑term cut fading and a non‑zero probability (about 12%) of a rate increase at the next meeting.
  • Crypto and risk assets face a nuanced outlook: Higher energy costs and uncertain monetary policy can dampen liquidity for risk assets, even as some traders seek hedges or tactical exposure.

Oil shocks, chokepoints, and the market’s fragile balance

The incoming energy data and geopolitical risk have pushed crude higher in recent sessions, with WTI briefly touching the high‑end of the $110s and flirting with $120 per barrel as the conflict widened. The persistent tension around the Middle East has intensified concerns that global supply flows could be constrained if oil infrastructure faces sustained disruption. Market observers point to the Strait of Hormuz as a pivotal artery—through which a sizable portion of the world’s oil shipments pass—and note that any sustained closure or damage could push prices higher for an extended period.

Analysts emphasize that even a reopening of maritime routes would not instantly restore pre‑crisis conditions. “Disruption to the Gulf’s oil-producing infrastructure will take months to rebuild,” one commentator noted, underscoring the slow‑burn impact on prices and the broader economy. The energy price surge feeds through to a wide array of goods and services, often lifting inflation broadly rather than affecting a single sector in isolation. In such a regime, inflationary pressures can push the real cost of living higher while limiting the central bank’s ability to loosen financial conditions quickly.

Beyond the immediate supply shock, energy is a fundamental input into nearly all economic activity. When energy costs rise, every sector faces higher costs, and central banks can find themselves juggling the risk of inflation against the imperative to support growth. The macro calculus becomes especially delicate if markets price in a persistent energy premium that persists through the next several quarters, complicating any hopes of an early, policy‑driven risk‑on rally for crypto and other speculative assets.

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Policy uncertainty and the Fed’s calculated stance

The Federal Open Market Committee’s decision to hold the Federal Funds rate at 3.5%–3.75% in March reflected a cautious stance in the face of renewed energy‑driven inflation risks. Market observers say that near‑term rate cuts have faded from the central scenario, while a minority of traders assign a non‑negligible probability to a rate move higher in the near term, as reflected by the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, which placed the odds of a hike at around 12% for the next meeting.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged that the economic implications of the Middle East conflict are unclear in the near term. Speaking at a press conference, he stressed that while energy prices are a potential drag on inflation and growth, it is still “too soon” to accurately gauge the full scope of the disruption’s impact on the broader economy. The central bank’s ongoing assessment will hinge on incoming data, including energy price trajectories, inflation readings, and indicators of domestic demand.

Measured against today’s macro backdrop, the risk premium for risk assets, including crypto, could be influenced by how energy costs evolve and how quickly monetary policy adapts. If energy prices remain elevated and inflation proves more persistent than anticipated, the Fed may lean toward a tighter stance for longer, which could constrain liquidity in markets and temper speculative appetites. Conversely, any signs of cooling inflation or a surprise easing in market stress could renew expectations for looser policy and a more favorable environment for higher‑beta assets.

What readers should watch next

Investors should monitor three interconnected threads in the coming weeks: first, the trajectory of global oil prices and the duration of any supply disruptions through strategic chokepoints; second, the evolving assessment of inflation and growth signals that inform Fed policy; and third, how sentiment around geopolitical risk interacts with liquidity conditions in crypto markets. With the energy‑inflation nexus likely to dominate near‑term headlines, traders would be wise to differentiate between narrative positioning and data‑driven developments as markets digest the evolving risk landscape.

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In this environment, the market’s reflex to geopolitical risk could remain biphasic: periods of reprieve followed by renewed volatility as new information emerges about the conflict’s scope, energy infrastructure resilience, and policy responses. Keep an eye on energy price momentum, central bank communications, and liquidity signals across major crypto and traditional risk assets to gauge where the next phase of the cycle may lead.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Bitcoin mining difficulty set for 7.5% drop as hash rate retreats

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Start mining BTC in minutes with no equipment

Bitcoin’s mining difficulty is set to drop about 7.5% tonight, the sharpest fall since the 2022 bear, as hash rate leaves the network and miner margins get relief.

Summary

  • CoinWarz estimates difficulty will fall from 145.04 trillion to 134.09 trillion at around 20:51 UTC, a roughly 7.55% drop and the steepest since the 2022 bear phase.
  • The adjustment reflects slower blocks at about 10.82 minutes on average as unprofitable miners switch off, compressing hash price and forcing out higher-cost operators.
  • A drop of this size often signals miner capitulation; weaker players exit while survivors gain share and margins, potentially reducing forced sell pressure on BTC down the line.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) mining difficulty is on the verge of its steepest downward adjustment in years, with the network recalibration expected to take place tonight at approximately 20:51 UTC (21:51 CET). According to live data from CoinWarz, difficulty will fall from the current level of 145.04 trillion to an estimated 134.09 trillion — a decline of roughly 7.55%.

If confirmed, this will be the largest single difficulty drop since China’s 2021 mining ban triggered a mass exodus of hash rate, and it would rival — or exceed — the severity of drops seen during the depths of the 2022 bear market, according to analysis from The Miner Mag. The adjustment covers the current 2,016-block epoch, during which average block times have stretched to approximately against the 10-minute target — a clear signal that hash rate has been leaving the network at a meaningful pace.

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The timing could hardly be more pointed. Bitcoin has fallen roughly 10% from the $76,000 level it briefly tested earlier this month, and is currently trading around $69,600. For miners operating on thin margins, the combination of a lower BTC price and the same — or higher — difficulty level creates a brutal squeeze on profitability. Hash price, a key metric measuring expected revenue per unit of computing power, has been compressed for weeks, forcing less efficient operators to scale back or shut down rigs entirely.

The outgoing hash rate is the direct cause of this adjustment. When miners go offline — whether due to unprofitable economics, rising energy costs, or hardware upgrades — blocks take longer to find. The Bitcoin protocol detects this slowdown over the 2,016-block window and automatically lowers the difficulty target to bring block production back toward the intended 10-minute interval. It is a self-correcting mechanism that has operated without interruption since Bitcoin’s earliest days.

For surviving miners, the adjustment delivers immediate relief. A lower difficulty means less computational effort is required per block, reducing the effective cost of mining each BTC. All else equal, the ~7.5% drop will improve miner revenue margins proportionally — a meaningful lifeline for operations that have been grinding through a period of compressed hash price and falling BTC revenue in USD terms.

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The broader market implication is also worth watching. Difficulty drops of this magnitude have historically coincided with miner capitulation phases — periods when the weakest hands exit the network, after which the remaining miners consolidate market share and cost structures improve. Historically, such capitulation events have preceded price recoveries, as the sell pressure from distressed miners eases. Whether that pattern holds in the current macro environment — marked by Middle East tensions, risk-off equity markets, and a cautious Federal Reserve — remains to be seen. But tonight’s difficulty adjustment will at minimum reset the playing field for Bitcoin’s mining industry heading into the weekend.

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Kiyosaki sees Bitcoin at $750k, Ethereum at $95k in post-crash world

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Bitcoin retreats below $77,000, Tether posts $10B annual profit, DOJ seizes $400M in Helix assets | Weekly recap

Robert Kiyosaki says an imminent “biggest financial bubble in history” will end in a crash that sends Bitcoin to $750k and Ethereum to $95k within a year, even as critics doubt his methods.

Summary

  • Kiyosaki argues a financial bubble inflated since 2008 will soon burst and forecasts Bitcoin at $750,000 and Ethereum at $95,000 within one year of that crash, alongside gold at $35,000 and silver at $200.
  • He frames BTC, ETH, gold, and silver as scarce “escape hatches” from fiat, noting he recently bought another 1 BTC around $67,000 and claims he would still buy more even if price fell to $6,000.
  • Critics highlight his decade-long record of missed crash calls and say his numbers lack rigorous modeling, but his alarm now lands amid tighter Fed policy and rising geopolitical risk.

Robert Kiyosaki, the author of Rich Dad Poor Dad and one of the crypto space’s most vocal mainstream advocates, has issued his most dramatic price predictions yet — forecasting Bitcoin (BTC) at $750,000 and Ethereum at $95,000 within one year of what he describes as an imminent and catastrophic global financial crash.

Speaking on X, Kiyosaki framed his outlook around the thesis that the world is approaching the “biggest financial bubble in history” — one he argues has been inflating since the root causes of the 2008 financial crisis were papered over with stimulus and monetary expansion rather than resolved structurally. His message was unambiguous: the question is no longer whether a crash will happen, but when.

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The post-crash price targets Kiyosaki outlined are striking in their scale. For Bitcoin, he projects a rise to $750,000 per coin within a year of the collapse — a roughly 10x move from current levels near $69,900. For Ethereum, his target of $95,000 implies an approximately 45x gain from where ETH trades today at around $2,130. He also projected gold reaching $35,000 per ounce and silver hitting $200 in the same post-crash window — suggesting a broad revaluation of scarce, non-sovereign assets as confidence in fiat currencies erodes.

The underlying logic Kiyosaki applies is consistent with his long-held worldview: when the traditional financial system fractures, assets with capped supply or physical scarcity — Bitcoin, gold, silver — will be the primary beneficiaries of the capital flight that follows. He has continued to put his money where his mouth is, most recently disclosing the purchase of an additional 1 BTC at approximately $67,000, and stating he would consider buying more if prices fell to $6,000.

Critics, however, are quick to note the limitations of Kiyosaki’s track record. His crash predictions span more than a decade, with calls for collapses in 2016 and 2020 that did not materialize as forecast. One response to his latest post on X summarized the skeptical view plainly: his forecasts are “big numbers to grab attention,” lacking the methodological grounding of rigorous financial analysis. Others pointed out that major crashes rarely stem from a single trigger, but rather from compounding pressures — tighter monetary policy, credit contraction, and forced asset repricing — a dynamic already partly visible in current market conditions.

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That said, Kiyosaki’s warnings land at a moment when macro conditions are unusually fraught. The Federal Reserve held rates steady this week while signaling fewer cuts ahead. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are escalating. Bitcoin’s 30-day correlation with equities is at its highest of 2026. Whatever one thinks of his methodology, the macro backdrop he has been warning about for years looks more plausible today than at any point in recent memory.

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Coinbase (COIN) vs Robinhood (HOOD): Top Crypto Stock Investment Comparison 2025

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COIN Stock Card

Key Takeaways

  • Coinbase generated $6.9B in total revenue for 2025 with $1.26B net profit, though Q4 showed a net loss
  • Robinhood achieved all-time high 2025 revenue of $4.5B and record diluted EPS of $2.05
  • Coinbase operates as a dedicated cryptocurrency exchange; Robinhood diversifies across crypto, equities, derivatives, and memberships
  • Analysts assign Coinbase a Hold rating while Robinhood receives a Moderate Buy
  • Average analyst price targets: Coinbase at $272.31, Robinhood at $120.59

When it comes to cryptocurrency-linked equities, Coinbase and Robinhood dominate investor conversations. However, these platforms represent fundamentally distinct investment opportunities with contrasting business models.

Coinbase operates as a dedicated cryptocurrency platform. The company’s core revenue drivers include digital asset trading, stablecoin operations, institutional custody services, and blockchain infrastructure solutions. The business thrives during bull markets but can experience significant headwinds when crypto sentiment deteriorates.


COIN Stock Card
Coinbase Global, Inc., COIN

Robinhood functions as a comprehensive retail investment ecosystem. Revenue flows from equity trading, derivatives, cryptocurrency transactions, premium memberships, and interest earnings. While crypto contributes meaningfully, it represents just one component of a diversified revenue model.

Throughout 2025, Coinbase recorded approximately $6.9 billion in net revenue. Transaction fees contributed roughly $4.1 billion, while subscription-based and service offerings generated $2.8 billion. Annual net income reached approximately $1.26 billion.

Yet Coinbase’s fourth quarter 2025 performance highlighted the business’s inherent volatility. Despite annual profitability, the company posted a quarterly net loss, underscoring its continued dependence on fluctuating trading activity.

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Robinhood Delivers Breakthrough Performance

Robinhood experienced an exceptional 2025 fiscal year. The platform reported all-time high revenue of $4.5 billion, with Q4 alone contributing $1.28 billion. Annual diluted earnings per share reached a record $2.05, while Q4 EPS came in at $0.66.


HOOD Stock Card
Robinhood Markets, Inc., HOOD

The company also attracted unprecedented net deposits totaling $68 billion throughout 2025. Its premium offering, Robinhood Gold, expanded to 4.2 million paying subscribers.

These metrics demonstrate a platform successfully evolving beyond simple trade execution into a comprehensive financial services provider. This diversification strategy provides insulation when individual market segments experience downturns.

Wall Street Analyst Perspectives

Current Wall Street consensus assigns Coinbase a Hold rating. According to MarketBeat tracking, the stock carries 19 Buy recommendations, 11 Hold ratings, and 3 Sell calls. The average analyst price target sits at $272.31.

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Robinhood commands a Moderate Buy consensus rating. Analyst coverage includes 17 Buy ratings, 6 Hold recommendations, and 1 Sell call. The consensus target price stands at $120.59.

Essentially, the analyst community exhibits slightly greater optimism toward Robinhood presently. Coinbase receives more cautious treatment due to its concentrated exposure to cryptocurrency market fluctuations.

The bullish thesis for Coinbase centers on pure-play cryptocurrency exposure. When digital asset trading accelerates or stablecoin adoption increases, Coinbase captures upside across multiple business segments.

The bearish counterargument focuses on earnings volatility. Financial results can swing dramatically based on market conditions, exemplified by the Q4 quarterly loss despite full-year profitability.

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Regarding Robinhood, the optimistic case emphasizes platform diversity. Multiple independent revenue channels reduce dependence on any single market segment.

The skeptical perspective questions valuation and growth sustainability. Should user acquisition or product innovation decelerate, the premium valuation investors currently assign may contract.

Robinhood Gold membership climbed to 4.2 million subscribers in 2025, while the platform captured record net deposits of $68 billion annually.

Bottom Line

Both equities provide cryptocurrency market exposure through distinctly different mechanisms. Coinbase represents the higher-volatility, potentially higher-return pure cryptocurrency play. Robinhood offers greater stability through diversification. The optimal selection depends on your individual risk tolerance and investment objectives.

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GameStop (GME) Stock: Analyst Predictions Ahead of March 24 Earnings Release

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GME Stock Card

Key Highlights

  • Q4 2025 earnings scheduled for pre-market release on March 24, 2026
  • Wall Street consensus: $0.37 earnings per share (compared to $0.30 last year) and $1.47 billion in revenue (15% year-over-year increase)
  • Shares have gained approximately 14% in 2026, currently trading near $23.27 within a 52-week span of $19.93–$35.81
  • Balance sheet features $8.8 billion cash reserves plus Bitcoin assets valued at roughly $519 million
  • Insider buying totaled 517,000 shares over three months; consensus analyst rating stays at “Reduce” with $13.50 price objective

GameStop enters its fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings announcement riding positive momentum. Shares have climbed about 14% since January, driven by revived retail investor interest and confidence in CEO Ryan Cohen’s transformation plan.


GME Stock Card
GameStop Corp., GME

The financial release is scheduled for Tuesday morning, March 24, followed by a conference call at 4:00 PM Eastern Time.

Analyst consensus calls for earnings per share of $0.37, representing growth from the $0.30 figure reported in the corresponding period last year. Top-line expectations stand at $1.47 billion, which would mark a 15% year-over-year expansion, based on TipRanks compilation.

This forecast represents a notable improvement over the third quarter, when GameStop delivered adjusted earnings of $0.24 per share — surpassing the $0.18 projection — while revenue declined 4.6% year-over-year to $821 million. The revenue shortfall highlighted persistent challenges from the gaming industry’s ongoing digital transformation.

Shares currently hover around $23.27, bracketed by a 52-week trading range spanning $19.93 to $35.81. Technical indicators show the 50-day moving average at $23.34 and the 200-day at $23.11. The company carries a market capitalization of $10.43 billion, with a price-to-earnings multiple of 28.38 and volatility coefficient (beta) of 2.12.

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Critical Investor Considerations

Investors are concentrating on three primary factors as the earnings date approaches. First, developments regarding GameStop’s cryptocurrency treasury initiative — specifically acquisition volumes and valuation implications. Second, evidence of sustainable top-line expansion after consecutive quarters of revenue contraction. Third, management commentary from Cohen regarding capital deployment plans, particularly potential merger and acquisition activity.

GameStop’s financial position commands attention. The retailer concluded Q3 holding $8.8 billion in cash and marketable securities, nearly doubling the $4.6 billion reported twelve months prior. Additionally, the company maintained Bitcoin holdings valued at approximately $519 million — an intentional element of its treasury management approach.

Liquidity metrics remain robust, with the quick ratio reaching 9.77 and the current ratio standing at 10.39, indicating strong financial stability despite ongoing revenue headwinds.

Wall Street Sentiment and Internal Trading Activity Show Divergence

Analyst perspectives remain conservative. Weiss Ratings elevated GME from “sell (D+)” to “hold (C-)” during February. However, the MarketBeat consensus rating continues at “Reduce,” accompanied by a $13.50 price target — substantially below present market prices.

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Insider transactions paint a contrasting picture. Throughout the previous 90 days, company insiders executed net purchases totaling 517,000 shares valued at approximately $10.9 million. Director Lawrence Cheng acquired 5,000 shares at $22.87 during January. Conversely, General Counsel Mark Robinson divested 12,200 shares at $21.00 in the identical timeframe, reducing his stake by 10.4%.

Institutional investors control 29.21% of outstanding shares. Multiple asset managers — including Panagora Asset Management and UMB Bank — incrementally expanded their holdings during the third and fourth quarters.

GME concluded fiscal Q4 2025 with Bitcoin assets approximating $519 million, and investors will scrutinize whether March 24’s financial data justifies the year-to-date price appreciation.

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Bitcoin Wavers At $70K As Iran War Rocks Markets

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Bitcoin Wavers At $70K As Iran War Rocks Markets

Bitcoin searches for equilibrium at $70,000 while rising crude oil prices and tanking stock markets have investors worried over the future of inflation in the US.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) swift rejection from its $76,000 range high on Tuesday, and the subsequent sell-off below $70,000, raised concerns among traders that the bottom is not in for BTC.

Chartered market technician Aksel Kibar suggested that a bearish wedge pattern similar to the one seen from December 2025 to early January 2026 may be forming again. 

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Kibar said, 

“Breakdown of the lower boundary will be the signal for a possible move towards $52.5K.”

BTC/USD: Source: X / Aksel Kibar

Kibar also referenced an X social post from Jan. 18, 2026, where he explained that BTC would need to respect its year-long average as “part of the chop and search for a base.”

Kibar said that “the pattern can become a rising wedge, usually bearish in an attempt to test $73.7K-$76.5K support area.” 

Bitcoin follows US stocks as high oil prices and rising inflation rock markets

Bitcoin’s tumble below $70,000 followed sharp selling in US stocks, where traders’ concerns over crude oil prices, the cost of the US and Israel-Iran war and its impact on inflation zapped investor confidence.

Related: Bitcoin vs gold shows potential bottom signals as BTC bulls defend $70K

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In a post discussing how the current decisions by the Trump administration could impact inflation, The Kobeissi Letter said,

“The market now sees a 50% chance of a US Fed rate HIKE by the end of 2026. Just months ago, markets saw as many as four rate CUTS this year.”  

In its BTC Options Weekly report, Glassnode analysts concluded that “Bitcoin has reintegrated its range after a short-lived deviation above the $75K level.” 

The analysts explained that within the options market, Bitcoin’s “short gamma at $75K has been unwound.” 

“Beneath the pullback, the breakout has lost momentum and range conditions are returning.”