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F&O Talk | Nifty grapples with dead cat bounce syndrome as pullbacks get sold. Sudeep Shah on Olectra, IDBI, 4 more stocks
Global cues remain negative with the Iran-Israel war entering the fourth week. The energy prices remain elevated with Brent hovering near the $113 a barrel mark. For domestic markets, persistent FII outflows and rupee weakness remain a growing concern.
Fear index India settled at 22.81 on the NSE in the last session, mildly up by 0.04%.
Analyst Sudeep Shah, Vice President and Head of Technical & Derivatives Research at SBI Securities, interacted with ETMarkets regarding the outlook for the Nifty and Bank Nifty, as well as an index strategy for the upcoming week. The following are the edited excerpts from his chat:
Q: Nifty ended mildly negative at 0.2% WoW, narrowing its losses through Friday gains as the bull started emphatically but lost momentum towards the end. Was it short covering or do you see the trend continuing next week as well?
Markets have little tolerance for uncertainty—and the ongoing escalation in West Asia since February 28 has kept risk appetite firmly in check. Since the onset of the conflict, the Nifty has corrected sharply by over 2000 points, reflecting the sustained pressure from global cues and risk-off sentiment.
The price action during this phase has been telling. The index has witnessed three distinct dead cat bounces, each met with aggressive selling at higher levels—clearly underscoring the firm grip of bears on the market. Every pullback has been sold into, highlighting a lack of conviction among buyers. While Nifty managed to end the current week on a flat note, the underlying weakness continues to persist.
Volatility remained elevated throughout the week. The index staged a sharp recovery of nearly 900 points in the first three trading sessions, only to see all gains completely erased on Thursday-marking the sharpest single-day decline since June 4, 2024. Ultimately, Nifty ended the week on a muted note, extending its losing streak to four consecutive weeks.
Sectorally, the pain has been most visible in Automobile and Banking stocks, which were the key outperformers prior to the conflict. These sectors have borne the brunt of selling pressure, largely driven by sustained FII outflows, with foreign investors offloading a massive ₹81262 crore in the ongoing March series. Given their heavy exposure to these sectors, FII selling has amplified the downside momentum.
A major overhang for the markets has been the sharp surge in crude oil prices. Brent crude once again spiked to $114.3 per barrel during the week before witnessing a marginal cooling off. Simultaneously, concerns around gas shortages and supply disruptions have intensified, with key energy commodities witnessing steep price increases since the start of the conflict. Elevated energy prices continue to pose a risk to inflation dynamics and corporate margins, thereby weighing on equity markets.
From a technical standpoint, the trend remains decisively negative. The index is currently trading below its all the crucial moving averages, and the formation of a bearish candlestick with a long upper shadow indicates persistent selling pressure at higher levels. Adding to the caution, the weekly RSI has slipped to 30.22, marking its lowest level since the COVID-led market correction—signalling deeply oversold conditions, yet without a clear reversal trigger.
Q: What levels will be important for Nifty this week and how should one trade?
For Nifty, the 22,850–22,800 zone will act as immediate support. A sustained breach below this level could accelerate the decline towards 22,500. On the upside, the 23,420–23,460 zone is likely to act as a stiff resistance, with any pullback expected to face selling pressure in this band.
Q: Market’s lackluster performance can be attributed to Nifty Bank, which has delivered its third worst performance in March in the past 20 years, declining by nearly 11%. What do Bank Nifty charts suggest and how to trade?
For the fourth consecutive week, the banking benchmark index Bank Nifty ended on a negative note, underscoring sustained weakness and persistent selling pressure in the banking space. Most notably, on the weekly chart, the index has formed a small-bodied candle with a long upper shadow, which clearly reflects selling pressure emerging at higher levels and a failure to sustain intraday and weekly recoveries.
Furthermore, for the second straight week, Bank Nifty has closed below its 100-week EMA, which is a crucial long-term trend indicator and reinforces the bearish undertone. On the daily timeframe, the index continues to remain under pressure, as it has been trading consistently below its 200-day EMA for the past ten trading sessions. This prolonged stay below the long-term moving average highlights a loss of medium-term trend strength and indicates that rallies are being sold into.
Momentum indicators also remain firmly biased towards the downside. Both the daily and weekly RSI are placed in bearish territory and are sloping downward, suggesting weakening momentum and limited scope for any meaningful upside in the near term.
Going forward, the zone of 54,300–54,400 is expected to act as a key resistance area for the index. As long as Bank Nifty trades below the 54400 mark, the broader outlook is likely to remain negative. In such a scenario, the index may continue its downward trajectory and test the immediate support near 52,200, followed by the next important support around 51500 in the
Q: Auto sector is another top loser and its prospects are tied to oil prices and inflation. In light of the Iran-Israel war, do you expect more correction, or is a bottom visible?
Nifty Auto staged a strong rebound in line with the broader market, bouncing from the 24,230–23,850 zone, a region that had previously acted as strong resistance during June–August 2025. However, the pullback proved short-lived as the index encountered stiff resistance near the 25,700–25,750 zone and eventually closed lower.
Notably, after facing rejection around the 28,720–28,820 zone between February 11–26, 2026, the index has corrected nearly 14%, confirming a double-top neckline breakdown in the process.
Technically, the index continues to trade below its key short and long-term moving averages, indicating a weak underlying trend. Momentum indicators also remain bearish. The RSI has failed to sustain above the 40 mark despite multiple attempts, while the MACD remains below both the zero line and the signal line. Additionally, a rising ADX suggests strengthening bearish momentum.
Going ahead, the 25,200–25,300 zone is likely to act as a crucial resistance. As long as the index remains below this level, the broader trend is expected to stay negative. On the downside, the 24,200–24,100 zone serves as a key support, and a decisive breach below this range could trigger further downside in the index
Q: Fed has left policy rates unchanged and has indicated a single rate cut of 25 bps this year. This comes as a blow to the tech sector which is already reeling under the AI threat. What is your take on the sector and any preferred stock to buy?
Since peaking at 40,301 on 3rd February, the Nifty IT Index has corrected sharply by nearly 28%, reflecting a combination of global macro headwinds and a deeper structural concern around AI disruption.
While a stronger dollar typically acts as a tailwind for IT companies due to higher export realizations, this time the benefit has been overshadowed. The core issue lies in the growing perception that AI poses a fundamental threat to traditional IT services, especially in areas like low-end coding, maintenance, and repetitive back-office functions. Markets have been quick to price in this risk, leading to sustained selling pressure.
That said, it’s important to note that leading IT companies are not standing still. Firms like Tata Consultancy Services, Infosys, and HCLTech have been actively investing in AI capabilities, building proprietary platforms, and integrating AI-led solutions into their service offerings. However, this transition is gradual in nature, the benefits are unlikely to reflect immediately in earnings and may take a few quarters to materialize meaningfully.
From a technical standpoint, the setup remains weak. The index continues to trade below its key short- and long-term moving averages, indicating a sustained downtrend. The MACD line remains well below both the signal line and the zero line, reinforcing bearish momentum. Although the pace of decline has moderated recently, there are still no clear signs of base formation or trend reversal.
Given this backdrop, it would be prudent to avoid bottom fishing at this stage. A more sensible approach would be to wait for signs of stabilization, such as sustained price strength, improving momentum indicators, or evidence of earnings resilience driven by AI adoption, before considering fresh exposure to the sector.
Q: India VIX is up 68% in a month and volatility is expected to remain high going ahead. How should one navigate this phase?
With India VIX surging 68% in a month, investors should prioritize capital protection. Focus on disciplined position sizing, avoid aggressive leverage, and stick to high-quality stocks. Use rallies to reduce risk, maintain higher cash levels, and wait for volatility to cool before taking directional bets.
Q: Olectra, JBM Auto and Jai Prakash Power Ventures were big gainers this week, while Chennai IDBI Bank, Bandhan Bank and BPCL have been big losers. What should investors do with them?
Olectra Greentech
The stock has witnessed a strong rebound from the lows of 865. However, it remains in a broader downtrend since October 2025, and it is still premature to classify the current move as a trend reversal. For any meaningful upside traction, the stock needs to sustain above the 980–975 zone.
JBM Auto
The stock rebounded sharply from its key support zone of 490–470 earlier this week. That said, it continues to face resistance near its previous swing high of 615–620. Unless this zone is decisively breached, the current pullback cannot be considered a confirmed trend reversal.
Jaiprakash Power Ventures
The stock has delivered a downward-sloping trendline breakout on the daily chart, supported by a rise in volumes. Momentum indicators are turning constructive. RSI is trending higher, and the DI+ is comfortably above DI- on the ADX, indicating bullish undertones. The stock needs to hold above the 14.5–14 zone to sustain the move. However, being a penny stock, it warrants a cautious approach.
IDBI Bank
The stock witnessed a sharp gap-down of nearly 17% on 16th March and has continued to drift lower since then. RSI remains weak at around 25, highlighting persistent bearish momentum. As long as the stock trades below the 80–82 zone, the broader trend is likely to remain negative.
Bandhan Bank
The stock has corrected nearly 17% from its recent high of 190 recorded on 26th February. It continues to trade below key moving averages, while the MACD remains below both the zero line and signal line, indicating sustained weakness. The trend is likely to stay bearish as long as the price remains below 165–167.
BPCL
The stock Bharat Petroleum Corporation slipped below its 200-day EMA on 9th March and has been under pressure since. It has corrected nearly 26% from its high of 390 on 27th February. A rising ADX points to strengthening bearish momentum. As long as the stock trades below the 307–310 zone, the overall trend is expected to remain weak.
(Disclaimer: The recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times.)
SEOUL — BTS unleashed their highly anticipated full-group comeback with the release of their fifth studio album “ARIRANG” on March 20, 2026, and the official music video for lead single “SWIM” quickly became a global sensation, amassing over 36 million views on YouTube within its first day while topping trending charts worldwide.
Directed by acclaimed Spanish filmmaker Tanu Muiño and starring American actress Lili Reinhart, the “SWIM” MV delivers a sweeping, cinematic narrative set against the vast ocean. Filmed on a massive sailing ship in Lisbon, Portugal, the video blends high-seas drama with introspective moments, featuring all seven members — RM, Jin, Suga, j-hope, Jimin, V and Jung Kook — navigating ropes, steering through waves and reflecting on perseverance amid life’s challenges. Reinhart appears as a central figure facing personal turmoil, with BTS encouraging her metaphorical “swim” forward, symbolizing resilience and forward momentum.
The production, overseen by HYBE Chairman Bang Si-hyuk, showcases overwhelming scale and visual beauty through intricate sets, dynamic camera work and stunning ocean backdrops. Credits highlight an UnderWonder Content Production with Jason Baum as producer, and music helmed by Tyler Spry and Leclair. The track itself is an alternative pop anthem with a minimalist, repetitive chorus — “Swim, swim / Water falling off your skin” — that builds into an uplifting message of enduring obstacles without stopping.
Fans and critics have lauded the MV’s maturity and emotional depth. Billboard described it as “a cinematic experience” that sees the members “work the ropes and navigate a sailing ship,” emphasizing its high-seas drama. ARMY reactions flooded social media, with many calling it “beautiful” and “peak BTS visuals,” praising the aesthetic, vibes and how it captures the group’s evolution after a nearly four-year hiatus from full-album releases. One popular reaction video noted the MV’s prettiness but expressed a desire for more intense choreography, while others highlighted the song’s subtle charm that grows with repeated listens.
Jimin explained the track’s meaning in pre-release comments, saying it reflects BTS’s current mindset: “still moving forward” despite challenges. V admitted initially finding “SWIM” “unstimulating” but noted its lasting appeal, while RM revealed the group deliberated longest over selecting it as the title track, underscoring its thoughtful fit for this era. The lyrics encourage embracing life’s waves, with lines like “I could spend a lifetime watching you swim” evoking support and admiration.
The video’s rapid success — surpassing 5 million views in the first hour and becoming the most-liked music video of 2026 on YouTube in under three hours — underscores ARMY’s fervor for BTS’s return. It hit #1 on YouTube’s music trending chart shortly after premiere at 1 p.m. KST (0 a.m. ET) on March 20, coinciding with “ARIRANG”‘s drop. The 14-track album draws its name from the traditional Korean folk song “Arirang,” exploring themes of identity, longing, separation and reunion.
“SWIM” stands out for its understated production: a simple, monotone yet catchy hook anchors the verses, avoiding bombastic drops in favor of emotional resonance. Reviews like The Bias List called it “fine” in a year of solid but not revolutionary K-pop releases, appreciating its repetition without overstimulation. Fan discussions on Reddit noted the song’s strength contrasting some feelings that the MV felt “underwhelming” compared to expectations, though album production overall earned high marks as “peak” BTS.
The comeback extends beyond the MV. BTS is set for a special concert at Gwanghwamun Square in Seoul on March 21, 2026, with a world tour planned across 34 regions, including Australian dates in 2027. The release marks their first full-group album since before military service hiatuses, symbolizing reunion and renewed artistic direction.
As “SWIM” continues climbing charts and inspiring covers, reactions and fan theories, it solidifies BTS’s ability to blend grand visuals with introspective messaging. In a statement tied to the era, the group emphasized perseverance — a theme mirrored in the video’s nautical journey — reminding listeners that even in turbulent waters, the key is to keep swimming.
With the album receiving widespread acclaim for its depth and the MV’s stunning execution, “SWIM” has set a high bar for BTS’s 2026 chapter, proving their enduring global impact.
Business
Smallcaps shine! 10 stocks that delivered gains of up to 41% this week. How many do you have?
Despite weak broader markets and rising geopolitical tensions, select smallcap stocks delivered sharp gains this week, with some surging over 40%. The rally highlights pockets of strength in sectors like chemicals, energy, and industrials, even as inflation concerns and global uncertainties continue to weigh on overall market sentiment.
Financially Free Investor is a financial writer with 25 years investment experience. He focuses on investing in dividend-growing stocks with a long-term horizon. He applies a unique 3-basket investment approach that aims for 30% lower drawdowns, 6% current income, and market-beating growth on a long-term basis and he focuses on dividend-growing stocks with a long-term horizon.
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Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of ABT, ABBV, CI, JNJ, PFE, NVS, NVO, AZN, UNH, CL, CLX, UL, NSRGY, PG, TSN, ADM, BTI, MO, PM, KO, PEP, EXC, D, DEA, DEO, ENB, MCD, BAC, PRU, UPS, WMT, WBA, CVS, LOW, AAPL, IBM, CSCO, MSFT, INTC, T, VZ, CVX, XOM, VLO, ABB, ITW, MMM, LMT, LYB, RIO, O, NNN, WPC, ARCC, ARDC, AWF, BME, BST, CHI, DNP, USA, UTF, UTG, TLT either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
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Emerging Latin American boy group SANTOS BRAVOS released the official lyric video for “MHM” on March 18, 2026, drawing immediate acclaim for its dreamy visuals and uplifting energy as part of their debut EP “DUAL.” The track, a standout from the six-song project dropped March 13 under HYBE Latin America, has quickly become a fan favorite, amassing over 1.2 million views on YouTube within days while sparking widespread positive reactions across platforms.
Directed by Alejandro Bernal with editing by Mario Trujillo and color grading by Ana María Ormaza, the lyric video features soft, ethereal aesthetics — floating text synced to airy synths, pastel tones and subtle animations that evoke romance and lightness. Presented by HYBE Latin America, it ties into the EP’s dual identity: “Santo” side rooted in melodic Latin pop and “Bravo” in reggaetón-EDM intensity. “MHM” leans firmly into the former, delivering a breezy, feel-good sound with minimalistic production that highlights sweet vocals and catchy repetition.
The song opens with lines like “Esos ojitos caramelo / Con ese pelo combinan” (“Those caramel eyes / Go perfectly with that hair”), painting a flirtatious scene of admiration. The chorus builds around the titular “Mhm,” a hummed affirmation of attraction and desire, layered over soft percussion and shimmering synths. Clocking in at 2:19, “MHM” stands out for its understated charm — no explosive drops, just smooth, hypnotic flow that invites repeated listens. Lyrics by Spread LOF Rios and Caroline Ailin, with composition by Johnny Goldstein and others, capture youthful infatuation with poetic simplicity.
Fan reactions have been overwhelmingly enthusiastic. YouTube comments and reaction videos describe it as “brightening my heart” and “my favorite from the EP,” with viewers noting its sweet vocals and emotional warmth. One reactor called it “euphoric” and “the one that changes favorites daily,” praising how it grows on listeners. TikTok clips and Instagram reels show fans lip-syncing and dancing to the hook, while Reddit discussions highlight Kauê’s vocal delivery as a highlight. The video’s Paris-filming connection — tied to a Paris Fashion Week performance in January 2026 — adds behind-the-scenes intrigue.
“MHM” follows the group’s momentum from earlier releases. Debut single “0%” (October 2025) introduced their sound, while “KAWASAKI” exploded with over 33 million YouTube views for its club-ready energy. “DUAL” — featuring “0%,” “KAWASAKI,” “MHM,” “FE,” “WOW” and “Velocidade” — showcases versatility, earning praise in Billboard’s Latin music poll as fans’ top new release of the week. The EP topped fan-voted charts, with “MHM” positioned as a focus track for its melodic contrast to bolder cuts.
SANTOS BRAVOS formed through the HYBE Latin America reality series of the same name, which documented 17 trainees from Latin America, the U.S. and Spain in a K-pop-inspired program. The final five — Drew Venegas (U.S., 25), Alejandro Aramburú (Peru, 21), Gabi Bermúdez (Puerto Rico), Kauê Penna (Brazil, 19) and Kenneth Lavíll (Mexico) — debuted October 21, 2025, at Mexico City’s Auditorio Nacional. The group represents diversity and duality, with Drew bringing queer visibility as an out and proud member.
The lyric video release coincides with promotional pushes, including a weekly docuseries “detrás de DUAL” (Behind DUAL) on Spotify starting March 15, offering intimate looks at the EP’s creation. Grooming credits for the video went to stylist Charley McEwen using Oribe products, underscoring the polished visual identity.
Critics and fans alike note “MHM”‘s role in broadening SANTOS BRAVOS’ appeal. While “KAWASAKI” targets clubs, “MHM” offers emotional depth, appealing to listeners seeking romance and lightness in Latin pop. Reactions emphasize its replay value — “non-stop listening” is a common phrase — and how it complements the EP’s range.
As HYBE expands globally, SANTOS BRAVOS positions as a bridge between K-pop training rigor and Latin influences. The lyric video’s success signals strong fan engagement, with streams climbing on Spotify (474,773+ for “MHM”) and Apple Music. Upcoming plans include more content, potential remixes and live performances to sustain the buzz.
With “MHM” solidifying their place in the Latin pop scene, SANTOS BRAVOS continues building on a promising debut year. The track’s gentle euphoria and heartfelt delivery make it a bright spot in 2026’s emerging releases, proving the group’s ability to balance high-energy anthems with tender moments.
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‘The Ramsey Show’ host Dave Ramsey discusses how young adults feel isolated from buying homes and entering the real estate market on ‘FOX Business In Depth: Hitting Home: Rebuilding the Dream’
Young Americans are increasingly finding themselves shut out of the housing market as rising debt levels and lingering affordability pressures reshape the path to homeownership.
“The Ramsey Show” host Dave Ramsey joined FOX Business’ Cheryl Casone on the FOX Business In Depth Special, “Hitting Home: Rebuilding the Dream,” to break down the financial realities facing first-time buyers and why many are falling behind.
A panel breaks down rising inflation and housing market pressures as the Iran conflict drives up oil prices and economic uncertainty on ‘FOX Business In Depth: Hitting Home: Rebuilding the Dream.’
Ramsey pointed to a combination of record-high consumer debt and shifting economic conditions that have eroded buying power across younger generations.
“I’m afraid I have to tell you the truth… Corporate America has screwed you,” Ramsey said.
“Car debt is at an all-time high… Student loan debt is at an all-time high… And, of course, credit card debt… is at a all-time high.”
For sale sign in front of a house in Houston, Texas. (Kirk Sides/Houston Chronicle / Getty Images)
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Those pressures, he explained, are leaving many without the financial flexibility to enter the housing market, as disposable income is increasingly consumed by monthly obligations.
“When you’re drowning in personal debt, you can’t afford to buy a freaking house,” Ramsey said.
U.S. Federal Housing Director Bill Pulte discusses Federal Reserve interest rates and home-buying on ‘The Claman Countdown.’
Beyond debt, Ramsey also highlighted the post-pandemic housing surge as a key factor pushing first-time-buyer ages higher, noting that supply shortages and elevated prices continue to weigh on affordability.
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Despite the challenges, Ramsey pushed back on the idea that homeownership is out of reach, arguing that progress is still possible for those willing to aggressively tackle debt.
“Our message to Gen Z and to millennials… is: clear this debt, get rid of the stupidity, and chop up the cards and work your way through it… Once you do that, you can get there,” Ramsey said.
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