Crypto World
Hype Surges 20% After Hyperliquid Backs Prediction Markets
HYPE’s surge followed an announcement that Hyperliquid’s core infrastructure, powered by HyperCore, will back a proposal to bring prediction markets onto the platform. The HIP-4 proposal aims to expand the layer-1 ecosystem beyond traditional perpetuals by enabling outcomes trading with fully collateralized contracts on Hyperliquid, the largest decentralized perpetual futures venue in crypto. The plan envisions a payout cap on outcomes, with no leverage, no liquidations, and no margin calls. In practical terms, traders would be able to bet on events—from political elections to sports outcomes—using Hyperliquid USDH (CRYPTO: USDH) as the canonical settlement asset. The news arrived via Hyperliquid’s X feed on Monday, underscoring a push driven by what the team described as “extensive user demand” for prediction markets and bound options-like instruments. The rollout is described as a work in progress, with testing currently underway on a testnet as developers work to validate order flow and settlement logic before any mainnet deployment.
Key takeaways
- HIP-4 would introduce fully collateralized outcomes contracts on Hyperliquid, removing leverage, liquidations, and margin calls while delivering a capped payout structure akin to a betting slip.
- The feature is currently in testnet, with canonical markets expected to denominate in Hyperliquid USDH (CRYPTO: USDH).
- The move responds to strong user demand for prediction-market-style exposure and could unlock additional applications built atop Hyperliquid’s infrastructure.
- Hyperliquid’s native token, HYPE (CRYPTO: HYPE), reacted positively to the news, climbing as much as 19.5% to roughly $37.14 in the immediate aftermath, as investors weighed the potential for expanded use cases alongside ongoing price momentum.
- Trading activity in perpetuals remains structurally robust, with DeFiLlama data showing weekly volumes above $200 billion, even after a peak in early November at about $341.7 billion.
- The HIP-4 integration would fuse perpetuals with event-driven markets, echoing prior collaborations that tied on-chain derivatives to broader, event-based trading.
Tickers mentioned: $HYPE, $USDH
Sentiment: Bullish
Price impact: Positive. The announcement and ensuing price action point to renewed interest in Hyperliquid’s ecosystem and its potential expansion into prediction markets.
Trading idea (Not Financial Advice): Hold. The combination of testnet validation and potential mainnet rollout suggests patience may be rewarded as the platform proves the stability and usability of HIP-4 outcomes contracts.
Market context: The news sits within a broader landscape where on-chain perpetuals and tokenized prediction markets have gained traction, with liquidity and trading activity remaining resilient even amid intermittent market pullbacks. DeFiLlama’s data shows that weekly perps trading volumes have held above $200 billion, a sign of continued demand for crypto derivatives amid a backdrop of evolving regulatory and product considerations.
Why it matters
Hyperliquid’s pursuit of HIP-4 signals a strategic attempt to converge two of crypto’s most active use cases: perpetual futures and on-chain prediction markets. By anchoring canonical markets to USDH, the ecosystem aims to reduce counterparty risk while broadening the spectrum of tradable events. If successful, the design could create a more diverse suite of hedging tools for traders and offer builders a template for creating novel, bounded-outcome products on top of HyperCore’s infrastructure.
The potential integration is more than a technical upgrade; it reflects a broader shift in DeFi toward event-driven demand. Prediction markets, in particular, have long been cited for their appeal in aggregating information and forecasting outcomes. Pairing this with the liquidity and composability of on-chain perpetuals could yield a new class of hybrid instruments that combine the immediacy of marginless bets with the risk controls that users increasingly demand. Still, it is early in the development cycle—the team characterizes the feature as “work in progress” and emphasizes testnet validation and careful deployment planning to avoid systemic risk in live markets.
From an ecosystem perspective, HIP-4 underscores Hyperliquid’s ambition to remain at the intersection of high-velocity derivatives and real-world event exposure. While the immediate utility centers on prediction markets, the underlying architecture could enable other applications—such as bounded, collateralized options-like vehicles or cross-market bets anchored to diversified datasets. The potential for on-chain governance to influence product direction remains a focal point for builders and investors watching Hyperliquid’s roadmap unfold.
The broader market context remains nuanced. While HYPE (CRYPTO: HYPE) experienced a notable uptick on the HIP-4 news, the overall crypto market has retraced in parts of February, with traders closely watching liquidity distributions, regulatory signaling, and institutional participation. The price action is part of a broader narrative in which traders seek to balance risk across multiple on-chain arenas, including tokenized stocks and other decentralized derivatives. As data from CoinGecko shows, the community continues to monitor Hyperliquid’s price trajectory and the dynamics of its USDH stablecoin, while the project explores expanding use cases that could drive sustained engagement beyond perpetuals trading alone.
What to watch next
- Progress of HIP-4 on the testnet, including any finalized parameters for payout caps, settlement windows, and event eligibility criteria.
- Clear milestones toward a potential mainnet rollout, including any governance votes or audits that would de-risk a broader deployment.
- Further announcements tying HIP-4 to other Hyperliquid features, such as deeper integration with on-chain perps or cross-market instruments.
- Any partnerships or collaborations (for example, with wallet providers or DeFi rails) that might facilitate user onboarding to prediction-market-like products on Hyperliquid.
- Regulatory clarity around prediction markets and event-based collateralized contracts, which could influence design choices and geographic availability.
Sources & verification
- Hyperliquid’s X post announcing HIP-4 support and its motivation for demand-driven expansion: https://x.com/HyperliquidX/status/2018327360723202167
- DeFiLlama perps trading volume data and historical context: https://defillama.com/perps
- Hyperliquid price index and market performance reports: https://cointelegraph.com/hyperliquid-price-index
- CoinGecko market data referenced for price movements and market context: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/hyperliquid
- Metamask Infinex integration with Hyperliquid Perps (context for cross-use-case potential): https://cointelegraph.com/news/metamask-infinex-integrate-hyperliquid-perps
Hyperliquid expands into prediction markets with HIP-4
The plan to introduce HIP-4 outcomes trading marks a notable shift for Hyperliquid, aiming to weave a prediction-market layer into a platform already known for its high-velocity perpetuals. The proposed mechanism would allow traders to place fully collateralized bets on discrete outcomes, all anchored to Hyperliquid USDH. The design prioritizes risk controls—no leverage, no liquidations, no margin calls—while presenting a familiar “betting slip” experience with a capped payout. In practical terms, participants would be wagering on the probability of events within a fixed payout band, with final settlements determined by verifiable outcomes rather than discretionary counterparty behavior. The testnet phase is essential to stress-testing order matching, settlement timing, and the governance signals that could guide a broader deployment.
HyperCore’s endorsement of HIP-4 suggests a broader strategic intent: to test how event-based markets can coexist with, and complement, on-chain perpetuals. The canonical markets would settle in USDH, aligning with Hyperliquid’s current liquidity and risk framework. The X post frames the feature as a response to user demand for bounded, options-like instruments—an appetite that has grown as traders seek products with clear risk parameters and transparent settlement rules. If HIP-4 proves resilient on testnet, the roadmap could include additional revenue streams for developers who design novel contracts atop Hyperliquid’s infrastructure, potentially unlocking a new class of decentralized derivatives that blend real-world events with blockchain-native risk management.
Media coverage and market data reflect a crypto ecosystem that is actively experimenting with the boundaries between traditional risk transfer and decentralized finance. The price reaction to the HIP-4 signal—HYPE rising to the mid-$30s range in the wake of the development—underscores investor interest in expanded product capabilities. The DeFiLlama data showing persistent, multi-hundred-billion-dollar weekly volumes in perpetuals indicates a robust liquidity backbone that HIP-4 could leverage. Still, the journey from testnet to mainnet is non-trivial; the technical complexity of event-driven settlement, combined with the need for robust governance and regulatory alignment, means timing and execution will be critical. As Hyperliquid navigates these challenges, the broader market will watch how prediction-market-inspired instruments fare in real-world testing and whether they can coexist with the governance and security standards that underpin decentralized finance.
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Iran will charge tankers $1 per barrel in bitcoin to cross the Strait of Hormuz during a two‑week US ceasefire, adding a crypto tax to the world’s key oil chokepoint.
Summary
- Iran will charge ships $1 per barrel in crypto to cross the Strait of Hormuz during a two-week US ceasefire.
- Tankers must disclose cargo by email, then get only seconds to pay in bitcoin before passage is cleared.
- The move comes as oil prices whipsaw below $100 amid a fragile truce over a chokepoint that once carried about 20% of global supply.
Iran will force every oil tanker transiting the Strait of Hormuz during the new two-week ceasefire with the US to pay a $1-per-barrel toll in cryptocurrency, turning the world’s most sensitive oil chokepoint into a de facto bitcoin paywall. According to the Financial Times, Tehran will demand that shipping companies settle the fee in digital assets, primarily bitcoin, as it seeks hard-to-trace revenues while sanctions bite. Hamid Hosseini, spokesperson for Iran’s Oil, Gas and Petrochemical Products Exporters’ Union, said the system is designed to slow traffic on Iran’s terms and tighten control over what moves through the corridor.
Under the scheme, tankers must first email Iranian authorities with detailed cargo manifests before entering the strait. Hosseini told the Financial Times that once the email is received and Tehran completes its assessment, “vessels are given a few seconds to pay in bitcoin, ensuring they can’t be traced or confiscated due to sanctions.” He added that “everything can pass through, but the procedure will take time for each vessel, and Iran is not in a rush,” underscoring that the stated aim is to prevent weapons shipments during the pause in fighting. With typical crude cargoes ranging from 500,000 to 2 million barrels, a single transit could mean crypto payments of $500,000 to $2,000,000 per voyage.
Ceasefire, crypto and a global oil lifeline
The toll comes as Washington and Tehran test a fragile truce that hinges on a partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which before the war carried roughly a fifth of the world’s seaborne oil. A senior Iranian official told Reuters that Iran could reopen the strait “limited, under Iran’s control” as early as Thursday or Friday, ahead of talks with US officials in Pakistan. Oil markets have already reacted: Brent futures slid about 13% to roughly $94.76 per barrel and US benchmark WTI dropped more than 15% to around $95.79 after President Donald Trump agreed to the two-week ceasefire, conditional on the “immediate and safe” reopening of the strait.
In Washington, Trump has floated turning the tolls themselves into a joint business model. “We’re thinking of doing it as a joint venture,” he told ABC News’s Jonathan Karl, calling it “a way of securing it — also securing it from lots of other people. It’s a beautiful thing.” That suggestion follows earlier musings that the US could impose its own tolling regime on ships using the strait, effectively monetizing a corridor where even a $1-per-barrel surcharge is a small fraction of crude trading in the mid-$90s but represents a new geopolitical tax on a market still reeling from weeks of war-driven price spikes.
Standard Chartered is reportedly weighing a restructuring of its majority-owned crypto custodian Zodia Custody, as large banks look to bring more digital asset infrastructure inside their core banking operations.
The United Kingdom-based lender plans to fold Zodia’s crypto custody business into a division inside its corporate and investment bank that already offers similar services, while keeping Zodia operating as a standalone Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) platform for digital asset custody, according to Bloomberg on Wednesday, citing people familiar with the matter. An announcement on the restructuring could reportedly come as soon as this month.
It is not yet clear whether Standard Chartered has opened negotiations with Zodia’s minority shareholders, which include Northern Trust, Emirates NBD, National Australia Bank and SBI Holdings.
Standard Chartered has rapidly expanded its own digital asset footprint, reportedly exploring the launch of a crypto prime brokerage platform through its venture arm, SC Ventures, and rolling out institutional crypto trading in summer 2025.
Related: Standard Chartered says faster stablecoin turnover could curb demand
The bank was an early mover into digital assets, setting up Zodia in 2020 with Northern Trust, and the custodian has since raised external capital and grown across seven offices in Europe, Asia and the Middle East.
Cointelegraph reached out to Standard Chartered and Zodia, but had not received a response by publication.
How other big banks are internalizing crypto custody
Standard Chartered’s reported rethink comes as other global banks take digital asset custody directly under regulated banking entities. In February, Morgan Stanley applied for a US de novo national trust bank charter, which would allow it to custody certain digital assets and execute purchases, sales, swaps, transfers and staking services for clients within a bank-regulated framework.
In October 2022, BNY Mellon launched a Digital Asset Custody platform in the US that lets selected clients hold and transfer Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) alongside traditional assets on a single platform, positioning the bank as a core provider of both conventional and tokenized asset servicing.
Magazine: Bitcoin’s ‘biggest bull catalyst’ would be Saylor’s liquidation — Santiment founder
Visa’s Intelligent Commerce platform lets AI agents shop, compare, and transact on behalf of consumers, and the company says the majority of business leaders are ready for it.
Payments giant Visa is opening its Intelligent Commerce platform to businesses worldwide, expanding the infrastructure that allows artificial intelligence (AI) agents to shop, compare, and complete purchases on behalf of consumers and enterprises.
The move comes one week after Visa published its Business-to-AI (B2AI) Report, which found that 53% of U.S. business leaders surveyed would allow AI agents to negotiate prices or terms directly with other AI agents on their behalf. The report also found that 71% of businesses said they are willing to optimize products, offers, and experiences specifically for AI agents, while 77% are already using or piloting AI in their operations.
On the consumer side, nearly 40% of Americans reported making a purchase they normally would not have considered as a result of using an AI agent or tool, an early signal that autonomous systems are actively shaping demand rather than merely filtering it.
Visa’s Intelligent Commerce framework provides a suite of integrated APIs spanning tokenization, authentication, payment instructions, and transaction signals, enabling AI agents to transact securely on behalf of users.
Pilot programs have already been running across multiple regions. In Asia-Pacific and Europe, pilots launched in early 2026, while readiness work is underway in Latin America and the Caribbean. In the Middle East, Visa is working with developer Aldar to allow customers in the United Arab Emirates to use AI agents to pay recurring fees like real estate service charges.
A core component of the framework is the Trusted Agent Protocol, an open framework introduced in October 2025 that helps merchants distinguish between malicious bots and legitimate AI agents acting on behalf of consumers.
Heated Race
Visa’s global push arrives amid intensifying competition over who will control the payment rails for AI agent commerce. Two crypto-native protocols are racing to become foundational infrastructure for AI payments: Coinbase’s x402 standard, which recently moved under Linux Foundation governance with backing from Google, Stripe, and Visa itself, and the Machine Payments Protocol (MPP), launched by Stripe’s Tempo blockchain.
On the crypto front, Visa has been hedging its bets. Visa Crypto Labs launched the CLI tool in March, a command-line payment interface that lets AI agents make payments without API keys or pre-funded accounts — directly targeting the same autonomous agent use cases that crypto protocols are pursuing. The company also expanded its stablecoin collaboration with Bridge in March, with plans to bring stablecoin-linked cards to over 100 countries.
The competing approaches highlight a growing fault line in the industry. Traditional payments players like Visa and Mastercard are building trust layers on top of existing card rails, while crypto proponents argue that blockchain infrastructure is better suited for a world in which AI agents are first-class economic actors.
Visa’s CMO Frank Cooper III framed the company’s vision in terms of its B2AI framework, describing a shift where commerce moves from market-to-human to market-to-machine, with AI agents evaluating, negotiating, and transacting on behalf of people.
This article was written with the assistance of AI workflows. All our stories are curated, edited and fact-checked by a human.
Iran told tanker operators on Wednesday that they must pay bitcoin (BTC) to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
The use of BTC, mentioned by name by Hamid Hosseini, a spokesman for the country’s oil exporters’ union, ensures payments “can’t be traced or confiscated due to sanctions,” even though the first part of that quote is certainly inaccurate.
Moreover, there will be “a few seconds” to pay, according to the spokesman.
All BTC can be traced on-chain, and the US Treasury has sanctioned Iranian BTC wallet addresses since at least 2018.
Even more embarrassingly, the spokesman claimed that BTC payments will complete within seconds, even though BTC transactions normally require several minutes to settle.
Anyway, Hosseini claims that oil tankers will somehow email Iranian authorities about cargo, submit to an inspection, and then pay a toll of $1 per barrel of oil in BTC.
FT published the news at 8:57am New York time. Whether on that news or for unrelated reasons, BTC rallied from $72,000 to $72,865 within 20 minutes. BTC then retraced that rally entirely, dipping back below $92,000 within half an hour.
Prior to the news last night, BTC rallied substantially, gaining about 6% on ceasefire discussions between the US and Iran.
Iran’s bitcoin rationale is half-right
Although BTC is easy to trace, the unfreezable half of Hosseini’s logic is technically defensible.
Unlike BTC, most major stablecoins can be frozen. Blockchain analytics firm Elliptic found Iran’s central bank accumulated over $500 million worth of tether (USDT) in 2025. In June of that year, Tether froze $37 million in wallets linked to the central bank.
In March 2026, Tether froze another $6.7 million tied to IRGC and Houthi-linked networks.
Unlike BTC which settles over several minutes, USDT can settle within seconds. The stablecoin served as Iran’s preferred oil settlement rail, until Tether started blacklisting its wallets.
Read more: US hits Iran’s ‘shadow banking’ network in Hong Kong, UAE
Sanctioning Iranian BTC wallets
Although no company can freeze BTC, the US Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) sanctioned Iranian BTC wallets on ransomware allegations in November 2018.
Since then, Chainalysis, Elliptic, and TRM Labs have built entire product lines around mapping Iranian-linked BTC and crypto flows.
In January 2026, OFAC designated UK-registered exchanges Zedcex and Zedxion for processing crypto assets for Iran’s IRGC, attaching crypto wallet addresses to that action.
According to the Chainalysis 2026 Crypto Crime Report, IRGC-linked addresses accounted for more than 50% of all value flowing into Iran’s crypto ecosystem in Q4 2025.
Over the full year, those addresses received at least $3 billion.
Any company that does pay the toll without US approval faces another problem. US, EU, and UK sanctions generally prohibit transactions with IRGC-affiliated entities.
OFAC’s interpretation of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act applies equally to BTC transfers as it does wire payments.
Specifically, a 2022 federal case in Washington DC established precedent that advertising crypto services as “designed to evade US sanctions” can serve as evidence of a sanctions-evasion conspiracy.
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Crypto World
Securitize Partners with Currenc Group to Tokenize Shares on Ethereum and Solana: Securitize
Tokenization firm Securitize has partnered with Nasdaq-listed Currenc Group to tokenize its ordinary shares on Ethereum and Solana blockchains.
Securitize announced a partnership with Currenc Group (Nasdaq: CURR) to tokenize the company’s ordinary shares on Ethereum and Solana. The move comes as Securitize was recently named the first digital transfer agent in the NYSE’s onchain securities initiative. Tokenized shares will enable 24/7 trading, lower costs, fractional ownership, and DeFi integration.
The partnership represents a continuation of efforts to bring traditional equities onto blockchain infrastructure. Securitize’s designation as a digital transfer agent by the NYSE signals institutional momentum behind onchain securities infrastructure. The tokenization of Currenc Group’s shares demonstrates practical implementation of blockchain-based equity trading for publicly listed companies.
Sources: Securitize (Twitter/X)
This article was generated automatically by The Defiant’s AI news system from publicly available sources.
Zcash (ZEC) rallied after President Donald Trump announced a two-week ceasefire deal with Iran, leading gains in a broader relief rally across global risk markets.
Key takeaways:
-
A 2021-style fractal warns ZEC price could fall 40% toward in the coming weeks.
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Over $50 million in long leverage sits below current prices, leaving ZEC exposed to a possible crash.
ZEC rally risks becoming a 2021-style bull trap
The privacy coin rose over 30% in the past 24 hours to $336.50 on Tuesday, its highest level since January. Its top rivals also climbed, with Monero (XMR) up 3% and Dash (DASH) up 8%.
ZEC’s latest rebound is starting to resemble the setup that followed its 2021 peak. Back then, it entered a prolonged bear cycle after peaking near $392.
During this correction, ZEC underwent multiple sharp bounces after testing its 0.238 Fibonacci retracement line at around $85, only to see its upside momentum weakening underneath a descending trendline resistance.
Zcash’s current setup looks similar. Its 0.236 Fib level near $197 is again acting as strong support, while a descending trendline continues to cap upside attempts.
A continued rebound could lift ZEC toward its 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level near $370, which also lines up with the descending trendline resistance.
But the rally could lose steam if bulls fail to break above the trend line, raising the risk of a pullback toward the $197–$200 support zone. In that case, the current move may start to look like the 2021 bull trap setup.
Related: Zcash devs raise $25M from major VCs months after ECC split
Conversely, a decisive breakout above the trendline may trigger a falling wedge breakout setup, with a measured upside target at around $1,200.
In the past, multiple analysts, including BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes and Alphractal CEO and Co-Founder Joao Wedson, have predicted the ZEC price to reach $1,000 or higher.
ZEC liquidation data raises downside risks
Zcash’s liquidation heatmap points to greater downside risk in the coming weeks.
For instance, Binance’s ZEC/USDT contracts may see $3.81 million worth of cumulative short liquidations if the price rallies above $380 in the coming weeks.
In comparison, roughly $50.56 million in cumulative long positions could be wiped out if the price drops below $260.
Markets tend to move toward zones where many leveraged positions are concentrated. In ZEC’s case, the larger concentration sits below the current price, where long liquidations far exceed potential short liquidations above.
The heatmap also highlights $305–$306 as the largest single liquidation pocket, with about $1.76 million in leveraged positions clustered in that range. That makes it an important near-term level to watch.
This article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trades carry risk; readers are encouraged to conduct independent research before making any decisions. Cointelegraph makes no guarantees regarding the accuracy or completeness of the information presented, including forward-looking statements, and will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from reliance on this content.
On-chain AI agents are increasingly capable of reasoning through complex DeFi strategies, but ERC-8211’s devs say a shared on-chain execution layer was lacking.
Blockchain infrastructure company Biconomy has unveiled ERC-8211, an execution standard for on-chain AI agents, co-developed with the Ethereum Foundation, per an X post on April 7. The development falls under the EF’s Improve UX initiative.
The new standard — referred to as “smart batching” — lets AI agents carry out complex, multi-step DeFi strategies without pre-encoding every parameter at signing time. The specification was published on April 6 alongside an open-source reference implementation and a live demo.
The proposal lists four authors, primarily current and former Biconomy engineers: Mislav Javor, Filip Dujmušić, Filipp Makarov, and Venkatesh Rajendran.
According to Biconomy’s X post announcing the development, the core issue facing on-chain agent interaction with protocols is that current batch execution on Ethereum is static and locks in calldata before a transaction hits the chain. But DeFi is dynamic: swap outputs shift with slippage, bridge fees fluctuate, and lending vault ratios change block by block.
The post illustrates the issue with an example of an agent trying to swap ETH for USDC on Ethereum, and then deposit the USDC to a DeFi lending protocol like Aave. The agent in that case has to estimate the swap output in advance. Estimate too high and the batch reverts, estimate too low and funds sit idle.
“Static batching forces a bad choice: hardcode an optimistic amount and risk a revert, or underestimate conservatively and leave value stranded,” the X post reads.
ERC-8211’s smart batching introduces three “building blocks” to address the issues around static batching: fetchers that read live on-chain state at execution time, constraints that validate resolved values before each call proceeds, and predicate entries — a way to check whether on-chain conditions are met.
As Ethereum’s official account put it in an X post today, the standard “allows users and agents to express multi-step composable actions as a simple off-chain script with built-in safety.”
Per Biconomy’s announcement post, the standard is account-agnostic, and compatible with ERC-7683, ERC-4337, and interoperability standards that are supported by the Ethereum Foundation Protocol’s Improve UX track.
The authors also note that the standard is designed to complement the broader agent infrastructure stack on Ethereum, namely ERC-8004 for agent identification and reputation, ERC-8183 for agent-to-agent commerce, and Coinbase-developed agent payment protocol x402.
An Ethereum Magicians discussion thread for the new standard is open for technical feedback, the announcement notes.
As The Defiant reported last month, the number of ERC-8004 AI agents registered across blockchain networks has grown sharply this year, with the largest number of agents using the standard on BNB Smart Chain. Yet most remain limited to basic swaps and transfers.
On the infrastructure side, the Ethereum Foundation has also recently set up a dedicated “dAI Team” aimed at making Ethereum the preferred settlement layer for AI agents and the machine economy, as The Defiant reported.
This article was written with the assistance of AI workflows. All our stories are curated, edited and fact-checked by a human.
Bitcoin bulls failed to stay above $72,000 for long as BTC price action already began to discount the impact of a US-Iran ceasefire agreement.
Bitcoin (BTC) hit new three-week highs into Wednesday’s Wall Street open as stocks surged on a US-Iran ceasefire.
Key points:
-
Bitcoin briefly hits new three-week highs before round-tripping its gains.
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Iran ceasefire relief fails to last as traders demand that bulls reclaim higher levels.
-
More volatility is due thanks to US inflation reports.
BTC price fails to stay above $72,000
Data from TradingView captured BTC/USD reaching $72,865 on Bitstamp before cooling the day’s gains.
News of a minimum two-week ceasefire between the US, Israel and Iran sent risk assets higher in an instant, with the S&P 500 up by more than 2.5% at the open.
WTI crude oil declined to as low as $91 per barrel as oil-supply crisis fears eased and traffic began to resume through the Strait of Hormuz. This came despite reports of an attack on a Saudi oil pipeline.
“The S&P 500 is now set to open above 6,800, trading just 2.9% away from a new record high. The index has added +$1.6 TRILLION today,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter wrote in its latest market coverage on X.
Among Bitcoin market participants, the relief was also palpable.
“I mentioned earlier that a ceasefire would be a clear direction on the markets. It happened,” crypto trader Michaël Van de Poppe wrote in an X response.
“Bitcoin breaks through the crucial $71K level and builds a bullish structure. Oil is down and the Strait is open, which means that there’s a mean reversion play active on Bitcoin.”
Van de Poppe described the need to hold support at $69,500 as “crucial.”
“That would strengthen the entire theory of a higher lows, higher highs and continues the momentum upwards and is likely going to fall alongside a new all-time high on the Nasdaq,” he added.
More inflation volatility on the horizon
Trader Daan Crypto Trades meanwhile said that $72,000, a sticking point in recent weeks, needed to be cleared.
Related: Bitcoin RSI ‘nearly perfectly’ copying end of 2022 bear market: Analysis
“Another day another test of the $72K level. Let’s see if the bulls can push through this time around,” he told X followers.
“I want to see a clean break and hold above that area. Ideally for more than 1-2 days this time.”
Earlier, Cointelegraph reported on other traders’ concerns about overall BTC price strength, which argued that Bitcoin bulls “still have a lot of work to do.”
The remainder of the week will see key US inflation releases, these set to show the initial impact of the Iran conflict and spark characteristic risk-asset volatility.
This article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trades carry risk; readers are encouraged to conduct independent research before making any decisions. Cointelegraph makes no guarantees regarding the accuracy or completeness of the information presented, including forward-looking statements, and will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from reliance on this content.
Key Takeaways
- Successful investing relies on consistent discipline rather than market forecasting.
- Strategic diversification minimizes losses from incorrect investment decisions.
- Growing economic downturn worries underscore the need for stronger risk management.
- Market analysts increasingly emphasize defensive positioning, quality assets, and liquidity.
- Successful investors stick to systematic approaches and resist emotion-driven choices.
Superior investment performance doesn’t come from accurately predicting market movements. Instead, it emerges from cultivating consistent practices that enhance decision-making quality, particularly during periods of heightened uncertainty and negative sentiment.
This approach proves especially relevant today. Economic downturn anxieties have intensified amid inflationary pressures, elevated oil prices, and international conflicts affecting economic projections. Recent Reuters coverage highlighted Goldman Sachs increasing its U.S. recession probability forecast to 30%, while Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson acknowledged dual risks facing employment stability and price levels.
Prioritize methodology over speculation
Many market participants assume winning strategies depend on identifying ideal securities at opportune moments. However, accomplished investors typically achieve results through consistent, systematic frameworks that eliminate common pitfalls undermining portfolio performance.
This requires understanding your rationale for each holding, recognizing its function within your overall allocation, and identifying potential failure scenarios. It demands acknowledging that perfect accuracy remains impossible.
Warren Buffett emphasized this principle when noting that “temperament is also important,” highlighting how emotional discipline significantly influences investment outcomes. This wisdom endures because many devastating portfolio errors occur when panic or euphoria drives decision-making.
Among the most valuable practices investors can develop is documenting the thesis behind each acquisition. When you cannot articulate your investment case concisely, you likely haven’t achieved sufficient comprehension.
Acknowledge downside scenarios and diversify strategically
Sophisticated investors don’t fixate exclusively on potential gains. They seriously consider outcomes when their assumptions prove incorrect.
This consideration becomes critical amid heightened recession concerns. Late March Reuters reporting indicated Morgan Stanley reduced global equity exposure while increasing allocations to cash and U.S. Treasuries as market participants adopted more protective stances. Reuters additionally noted American financial advisors expressing elevated concern regarding volatility, inflation, and geopolitical uncertainty entering the second quarter.
Diversification stands among the most accessible yet powerful mechanisms available to investors. While it won’t eliminate losses entirely, it prevents isolated errors, sector-specific troubles, or single macroeconomic themes from inflicting excessive harm.
This entails distributing capital across varied asset categories, sectors, and geographic markets. Resilient portfolios typically blend growth-oriented positions with stability-focused holdings rather than concentrating everything in fashionable themes.
Gold may serve a function within this framework. Reuters recently cited UBS Global Wealth Management’s Solita Marcelli stating, “Gold continues to play its historical role as a haven during periods of currency debasement and inflation.” While gold shouldn’t constitute an entire strategy, modest protective positions offer value when risk factors intensify.
Maintain consistency during market turbulence
Investment’s greatest challenge frequently isn’t security selection. Rather, it’s maintaining rational strategies when markets gyrate wildly and emotions intensify.
This difficulty appears to be escalating. April 8 Reuters coverage reported volatility-focused funds liquidated approximately $108 billion in equities since early March, amplifying market fluctuations during an anxious period. Such selling creates pressure for investors to respond quickly, even when immediate action proves counterproductive.
This explains why systematic discipline proves essential. March Reuters reporting highlighted BlackRock CEO Larry Fink encouraging clients to maintain market exposure despite volatility, while recognizing that artificial intelligence gains and broader market advances may distribute unevenly. This guidance provides value by combining prudence with persistence.
Several straightforward practices generate meaningful improvements. Contribute according to predetermined schedules rather than attempting to time entries perfectly. Rebalance at established intervals instead of responding to every news cycle. Maintain adequate cash reserves so downturns present opportunities rather than crises. Reduce portfolio review frequency if constant monitoring triggers poor choices.
Concluding Perspective
Top-performing investors rarely exhibit the most aggressive behavior or loudest predictions. Instead, they demonstrate composure, acknowledge risk parameters, implement thoughtful diversification, and adhere to systematic processes during uncertain conditions. With recession probabilities rising yet forecasts remaining ambiguous, this moment favors prioritizing disciplined execution over prediction attempts. This fundamental reorientation can substantially enhance long-term investment performance.
Hours after US President Donald Trump claimed that Iran and the United States had agreed to a two-week ceasefire that included opening the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian authorities are reportedly considering charging ships using the waterway in cryptocurrency.
According to a Wednesday Financial Times report, a spokesperson for Iran’s Oil, Gas and Petrochemical Products Exporters’ Union said empty oil tankers will be able to pass through the Strait of Hormuz without incurring charges, but certain ships will need to pay a tariff of $1 per barrel of oil in Bitcoin (BTC).
The spokesperson, Hamid Hosseini, reportedly said Iranian authorities would also assess each ship using the waterway over the two-week period to ensure it wasn’t transporting weapons.
“Once the email arrives and Iran completes its assessment, vessels are given a few seconds to pay in Bitcoin, ensuring they can’t be traced or confiscated due to sanctions,” said Hosseini, according to the Financial Times.
Many ships have effectively been cut off from using the Strait of Hormuz to transport oil and other supplies after US-Israel air strikes on Iranian targets in February and March. Amid the move by Iran and geopolitical tensions, the price of crude oil exceeded $100 per barrel for the first time in four years and the prices of many cryptocurrencies were volatile, with BTC fluctuating between $65,000 and $75,000.
Related: Bitcoin reclaims $72K after US, Iran agree to 2-week ceasefire
Trump claimed on his Truth Social platform on Tuesday that the ceasefire deal included the suspension of the “bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks” and the “complete, immediate, and safe opening of the Strait of Hormuz.” Iran’s state media reported that the country delivered a 10-point plan to the US president as a condition for the deal, including continued control of the waterway and the end of sanctions on Iran.
Prior to war, Iran still used crypto to bolster its currency
Before the escalation of hostilities between US-Israeli forces and Iran in February, reports suggested that Iran had been using digital assets to evade sanctions amid its currency, the rial, dropping against the US dollar.
Blockchain analytics platform Elliptic reported in January that Iran’s central bank acquired half a billion dollars worth of Tether’s USDt (USDT) stablecoin. TRM Labs also tracked about $3.7 billion in total crypto flows in Iran between January and July 2025.
Magazine: ‘Phantom Bitcoin’ checks, Drift hack linked to North Korea: Asia Express
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