Crypto World
Rising ISM PMI Signals Bullish Bitcoin
A January ISM Manufacturing PMI reading of 52.6 signals a return to expansion for the US manufacturing sector, the strongest showing since August 2022 and well above the 50 mark that denotes growth. The data arrive as Bitcoin trended near $78,000 after sliding to a 10-month low around $75,442 earlier in the week, underscoring the sensitivity of crypto markets to macro signals. The PMI beat the consensus call of roughly 48.5 and ended a 26-month stretch of contraction, a development that market participants view as a potential turning point for liquidity, inflation expectations, and policy stance. The combination of stronger manufacturing signals and resilient risk assets has traders weighing whether a broader macro improvement could lift crypto prices in the months ahead.
Key takeaways
- January ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.6, the highest level since August 2022, and above the roughly 48.5 expected by markets.
- The PMI’s move into expansion territory breaks a long sequence of contraction (26 months) and is seen as a potential harbinger of improved risk appetite if the trend proves durable.
- Bitcoin has hovered around $78,000 after testing lower levels, including a 10-month low near $75,442 earlier in the period, highlighting ongoing macro-driven volatility.
- Historically, reversals in PMI readings have coincided with renewed risk-on sentiment for risk assets like Bitcoin, a pattern cited by observers tracking macro-to-crypto cycles.
- Forecasts for Bitcoin in 2026 remain divergent: Dragonfly projects a sustained rally above $150,000, while Fundstrat’s Tom Lee foresees a retracement before a late-stage rebound, and Galaxy Digital suggests a very wide potential range.
Sentiment: Neutral
Price impact: Positive. A stronger-than-expected PMI print could bolster risk-on sentiment and provide supportive momentum for Bitcoin, though the broader macro backdrop remains nuanced.
Market context: The ISM reading adds a fresh data point to the ongoing conversation about inflation, monetary policy, and liquidity which continue to shape crypto market dynamics. As macro indicators lean toward growth, traders will watch whether the improvement is sustained and how it interfaces with regulatory, ETF, and liquidity developments that influence the crypto space.
Why it matters
The ISM PMI is a closely watched gauge of domestic manufacturing activity and, by extension, the health of the broader economy. A 52.6 reading in January positions the sector back in expansion territory and above the 50-line threshold that signifies growth. While the headline number matters, the deeper question for markets is whether this expansion is durable enough to influence inflation dynamics and the Federal Reserve’s policy path. The timing matters for crypto traders because periods of macro resilience can lift risk-on assets, including Bitcoin, which has displayed sensitivity to shifts in liquidity and risk appetite.
Bitcoin’s price action relative to the PMI news cycle has been a focal point for analysts who map macro cycles onto crypto markets. The asset’s recent move around $78,000 comes after a dip to a 10-month low of about $75,442, reminding market participants that crypto remains tethered to broader risk sentiment as well as sector-specific catalysts such as institutional flows and macroeconomic surprises. The January PMI data is part of a larger narrative in which economic data can either reinforce a risk-on tilt or provoke caution, depending on how investors interpret the sustainability of the growth impulse and the trajectory of inflation.
Analysts have offered contrasting takes on what the PMI signal means for Bitcoin’s journey through 2026. For instance, Strive’s Joe Burnett highlighted a historical pattern where PMI reversals have coincided with shifts toward risk-on conditions in crypto markets, pointing to past cycles where Bitcoin enjoyed rallies following upticks in manufacturing activity. On the other hand, Plan C underscored a cautionary note, urging market participants to align their Bitcoin cycle understanding with macro and business cycle dynamics, warning that the crypto market can diverge from the economy in meaningful ways.
Notably, Bitcoin’s relationship with the broader economy is not one-to-one. Advocates of a nuanced approach argue that Bitcoin has often moved in ways that do not perfectly track manufacturing data or GDP growth, a stance echoed by Into The Cryptoverse’s Benjamin Cowen. The January PMI narrative acknowledges this divergence—while the PMI data point to a healthier manufacturing backdrop, Bitcoin’s performance has been tempered by a mix of liquidity considerations, risk sentiment, and episodic volatility that can outpace traditional economic indicators.
The market’s appetite for price direction also remains influenced by a spectrum of forecasts. In 2026, Dragonfly expects Bitcoin to break above $150,000 by year’s end, bolstering the case for a longer-term rally should macro conditions stay supportive. Fundstrat’s Tom Lee, meanwhile, has signaled a tougher near term, suggesting a retracement before a late-stage recovery and new highs. Galaxy Digital has taken a broader stance, describing the year as potentially chaotic and suggesting a wide possible range for Bitcoin—from as low as $50,000 to as high as $250,000. These forecasts reflect the ongoing polarization among investors about the path toward a new macro regime and how crypto will perform within it.
As the data flow continues, traders will weigh the ISM PMI’s implications against other macro signals and crypto-specific catalysts. The October 2023 liquidity shock and subsequent volatility reminder remains fresh in market memory, underscoring the challenge of predicting a precise Bitcoin trajectory in the near term even as macro resilience grows. The broader crypto narrative continues to be shaped by how quickly investors react to new data, how risks are priced, and how institutions manage exposure in a landscape that remains sensitive to both macro cycles and crypto-specific developments.
What to watch next
- Upcoming ISM PMI releases (February and beyond) to confirm whether expansion persists and at what pace.
- Bitcoin price action around critical levels (e.g., $80,000 and beyond) as macro signals evolve.
- Updated forecasts from major firms and analysts on Bitcoin’s trajectory in 2026.
- Potential shifts in liquidity and policy expectations that could influence risk appetite across crypto markets.
Sources & verification
- ISM Manufacturing PMI January 2026 release and PDF: https://www.ismworld.org/globalassets/pub/research-and-surveys/rob/pmi/wolf202601pmi.pdf
- Bitcoin price context and BTC-linked references cited in related analyses: https://cointelegraph.com/bitcoin-price
- October 10 leveraged liquidation event reported in crypto market coverage: https://cointelegraph.com/news/eth–bnb–doge-surge-crypto-recovers-flash-crash
- Dragonfly 2026 Bitcoin forecast coverage: https://cointelegraph.com/news/tech-giants-google–apple-meta-launch-crypto-wallet-2026
- Fundstrat Tom Lee’s 2026 Bitcoin outlook coverage: https://cointelegraph.com/news/fundstrat-lee-sees-tough-start-market-prices-2026
Market reaction and key details
January’s PMI print re-frames the narrative around growth, inflation, and policy expectations. The figure surpasses forecasts and ends a multi-year stretch of contraction, a development that market participants are parsing for implications on liquidity and risk appetite. The positive print has coincided with Bitcoin’s retest of the high-70s area, a zone that has acted as a battleground for several months as macro headlines shift between growth signals and inflation concerns. While the data point to a potentially more favorable macro backdrop, analysts caution that the path for Bitcoin remains influenced by how the broader economy evolves, how policy responses unfold, and how capital allocators position themselves amid mixed signals from equities, bonds, and digital assets.
As macro narrative drivers interact with crypto-specific dynamics, investors are left weighing optimistic projections against a framework of continued volatility. The ISM PMI’s strength could provide a tailwind if it translates into sustained risk-on sentiment, but a single data point is insufficient to confirm a trend. The market will be watching for follow-up data, including consumer inflation, labor market trends, and the Fed’s evolving communication, all of which have historically shaped the direction of Bitcoin and other digital assets in the medium term.
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Iran will charge tankers $1 per barrel in bitcoin to cross the Strait of Hormuz during a two‑week US ceasefire, adding a crypto tax to the world’s key oil chokepoint.
Summary
- Iran will charge ships $1 per barrel in crypto to cross the Strait of Hormuz during a two-week US ceasefire.
- Tankers must disclose cargo by email, then get only seconds to pay in bitcoin before passage is cleared.
- The move comes as oil prices whipsaw below $100 amid a fragile truce over a chokepoint that once carried about 20% of global supply.
Iran will force every oil tanker transiting the Strait of Hormuz during the new two-week ceasefire with the US to pay a $1-per-barrel toll in cryptocurrency, turning the world’s most sensitive oil chokepoint into a de facto bitcoin paywall. According to the Financial Times, Tehran will demand that shipping companies settle the fee in digital assets, primarily bitcoin, as it seeks hard-to-trace revenues while sanctions bite. Hamid Hosseini, spokesperson for Iran’s Oil, Gas and Petrochemical Products Exporters’ Union, said the system is designed to slow traffic on Iran’s terms and tighten control over what moves through the corridor.
Under the scheme, tankers must first email Iranian authorities with detailed cargo manifests before entering the strait. Hosseini told the Financial Times that once the email is received and Tehran completes its assessment, “vessels are given a few seconds to pay in bitcoin, ensuring they can’t be traced or confiscated due to sanctions.” He added that “everything can pass through, but the procedure will take time for each vessel, and Iran is not in a rush,” underscoring that the stated aim is to prevent weapons shipments during the pause in fighting. With typical crude cargoes ranging from 500,000 to 2 million barrels, a single transit could mean crypto payments of $500,000 to $2,000,000 per voyage.
Ceasefire, crypto and a global oil lifeline
The toll comes as Washington and Tehran test a fragile truce that hinges on a partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which before the war carried roughly a fifth of the world’s seaborne oil. A senior Iranian official told Reuters that Iran could reopen the strait “limited, under Iran’s control” as early as Thursday or Friday, ahead of talks with US officials in Pakistan. Oil markets have already reacted: Brent futures slid about 13% to roughly $94.76 per barrel and US benchmark WTI dropped more than 15% to around $95.79 after President Donald Trump agreed to the two-week ceasefire, conditional on the “immediate and safe” reopening of the strait.
In Washington, Trump has floated turning the tolls themselves into a joint business model. “We’re thinking of doing it as a joint venture,” he told ABC News’s Jonathan Karl, calling it “a way of securing it — also securing it from lots of other people. It’s a beautiful thing.” That suggestion follows earlier musings that the US could impose its own tolling regime on ships using the strait, effectively monetizing a corridor where even a $1-per-barrel surcharge is a small fraction of crude trading in the mid-$90s but represents a new geopolitical tax on a market still reeling from weeks of war-driven price spikes.
Standard Chartered is reportedly weighing a restructuring of its majority-owned crypto custodian Zodia Custody, as large banks look to bring more digital asset infrastructure inside their core banking operations.
The United Kingdom-based lender plans to fold Zodia’s crypto custody business into a division inside its corporate and investment bank that already offers similar services, while keeping Zodia operating as a standalone Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) platform for digital asset custody, according to Bloomberg on Wednesday, citing people familiar with the matter. An announcement on the restructuring could reportedly come as soon as this month.
It is not yet clear whether Standard Chartered has opened negotiations with Zodia’s minority shareholders, which include Northern Trust, Emirates NBD, National Australia Bank and SBI Holdings.
Standard Chartered has rapidly expanded its own digital asset footprint, reportedly exploring the launch of a crypto prime brokerage platform through its venture arm, SC Ventures, and rolling out institutional crypto trading in summer 2025.
Related: Standard Chartered says faster stablecoin turnover could curb demand
The bank was an early mover into digital assets, setting up Zodia in 2020 with Northern Trust, and the custodian has since raised external capital and grown across seven offices in Europe, Asia and the Middle East.
Cointelegraph reached out to Standard Chartered and Zodia, but had not received a response by publication.
How other big banks are internalizing crypto custody
Standard Chartered’s reported rethink comes as other global banks take digital asset custody directly under regulated banking entities. In February, Morgan Stanley applied for a US de novo national trust bank charter, which would allow it to custody certain digital assets and execute purchases, sales, swaps, transfers and staking services for clients within a bank-regulated framework.
In October 2022, BNY Mellon launched a Digital Asset Custody platform in the US that lets selected clients hold and transfer Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) alongside traditional assets on a single platform, positioning the bank as a core provider of both conventional and tokenized asset servicing.
Magazine: Bitcoin’s ‘biggest bull catalyst’ would be Saylor’s liquidation — Santiment founder
Visa’s Intelligent Commerce platform lets AI agents shop, compare, and transact on behalf of consumers, and the company says the majority of business leaders are ready for it.
Payments giant Visa is opening its Intelligent Commerce platform to businesses worldwide, expanding the infrastructure that allows artificial intelligence (AI) agents to shop, compare, and complete purchases on behalf of consumers and enterprises.
The move comes one week after Visa published its Business-to-AI (B2AI) Report, which found that 53% of U.S. business leaders surveyed would allow AI agents to negotiate prices or terms directly with other AI agents on their behalf. The report also found that 71% of businesses said they are willing to optimize products, offers, and experiences specifically for AI agents, while 77% are already using or piloting AI in their operations.
On the consumer side, nearly 40% of Americans reported making a purchase they normally would not have considered as a result of using an AI agent or tool, an early signal that autonomous systems are actively shaping demand rather than merely filtering it.
Visa’s Intelligent Commerce framework provides a suite of integrated APIs spanning tokenization, authentication, payment instructions, and transaction signals, enabling AI agents to transact securely on behalf of users.
Pilot programs have already been running across multiple regions. In Asia-Pacific and Europe, pilots launched in early 2026, while readiness work is underway in Latin America and the Caribbean. In the Middle East, Visa is working with developer Aldar to allow customers in the United Arab Emirates to use AI agents to pay recurring fees like real estate service charges.
A core component of the framework is the Trusted Agent Protocol, an open framework introduced in October 2025 that helps merchants distinguish between malicious bots and legitimate AI agents acting on behalf of consumers.
Heated Race
Visa’s global push arrives amid intensifying competition over who will control the payment rails for AI agent commerce. Two crypto-native protocols are racing to become foundational infrastructure for AI payments: Coinbase’s x402 standard, which recently moved under Linux Foundation governance with backing from Google, Stripe, and Visa itself, and the Machine Payments Protocol (MPP), launched by Stripe’s Tempo blockchain.
On the crypto front, Visa has been hedging its bets. Visa Crypto Labs launched the CLI tool in March, a command-line payment interface that lets AI agents make payments without API keys or pre-funded accounts — directly targeting the same autonomous agent use cases that crypto protocols are pursuing. The company also expanded its stablecoin collaboration with Bridge in March, with plans to bring stablecoin-linked cards to over 100 countries.
The competing approaches highlight a growing fault line in the industry. Traditional payments players like Visa and Mastercard are building trust layers on top of existing card rails, while crypto proponents argue that blockchain infrastructure is better suited for a world in which AI agents are first-class economic actors.
Visa’s CMO Frank Cooper III framed the company’s vision in terms of its B2AI framework, describing a shift where commerce moves from market-to-human to market-to-machine, with AI agents evaluating, negotiating, and transacting on behalf of people.
This article was written with the assistance of AI workflows. All our stories are curated, edited and fact-checked by a human.
Iran told tanker operators on Wednesday that they must pay bitcoin (BTC) to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
The use of BTC, mentioned by name by Hamid Hosseini, a spokesman for the country’s oil exporters’ union, ensures payments “can’t be traced or confiscated due to sanctions,” even though the first part of that quote is certainly inaccurate.
Moreover, there will be “a few seconds” to pay, according to the spokesman.
All BTC can be traced on-chain, and the US Treasury has sanctioned Iranian BTC wallet addresses since at least 2018.
Even more embarrassingly, the spokesman claimed that BTC payments will complete within seconds, even though BTC transactions normally require several minutes to settle.
Anyway, Hosseini claims that oil tankers will somehow email Iranian authorities about cargo, submit to an inspection, and then pay a toll of $1 per barrel of oil in BTC.
FT published the news at 8:57am New York time. Whether on that news or for unrelated reasons, BTC rallied from $72,000 to $72,865 within 20 minutes. BTC then retraced that rally entirely, dipping back below $92,000 within half an hour.
Prior to the news last night, BTC rallied substantially, gaining about 6% on ceasefire discussions between the US and Iran.
Iran’s bitcoin rationale is half-right
Although BTC is easy to trace, the unfreezable half of Hosseini’s logic is technically defensible.
Unlike BTC, most major stablecoins can be frozen. Blockchain analytics firm Elliptic found Iran’s central bank accumulated over $500 million worth of tether (USDT) in 2025. In June of that year, Tether froze $37 million in wallets linked to the central bank.
In March 2026, Tether froze another $6.7 million tied to IRGC and Houthi-linked networks.
Unlike BTC which settles over several minutes, USDT can settle within seconds. The stablecoin served as Iran’s preferred oil settlement rail, until Tether started blacklisting its wallets.
Read more: US hits Iran’s ‘shadow banking’ network in Hong Kong, UAE
Sanctioning Iranian BTC wallets
Although no company can freeze BTC, the US Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) sanctioned Iranian BTC wallets on ransomware allegations in November 2018.
Since then, Chainalysis, Elliptic, and TRM Labs have built entire product lines around mapping Iranian-linked BTC and crypto flows.
In January 2026, OFAC designated UK-registered exchanges Zedcex and Zedxion for processing crypto assets for Iran’s IRGC, attaching crypto wallet addresses to that action.
According to the Chainalysis 2026 Crypto Crime Report, IRGC-linked addresses accounted for more than 50% of all value flowing into Iran’s crypto ecosystem in Q4 2025.
Over the full year, those addresses received at least $3 billion.
Any company that does pay the toll without US approval faces another problem. US, EU, and UK sanctions generally prohibit transactions with IRGC-affiliated entities.
OFAC’s interpretation of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act applies equally to BTC transfers as it does wire payments.
Specifically, a 2022 federal case in Washington DC established precedent that advertising crypto services as “designed to evade US sanctions” can serve as evidence of a sanctions-evasion conspiracy.
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Crypto World
Securitize Partners with Currenc Group to Tokenize Shares on Ethereum and Solana: Securitize
Tokenization firm Securitize has partnered with Nasdaq-listed Currenc Group to tokenize its ordinary shares on Ethereum and Solana blockchains.
Securitize announced a partnership with Currenc Group (Nasdaq: CURR) to tokenize the company’s ordinary shares on Ethereum and Solana. The move comes as Securitize was recently named the first digital transfer agent in the NYSE’s onchain securities initiative. Tokenized shares will enable 24/7 trading, lower costs, fractional ownership, and DeFi integration.
The partnership represents a continuation of efforts to bring traditional equities onto blockchain infrastructure. Securitize’s designation as a digital transfer agent by the NYSE signals institutional momentum behind onchain securities infrastructure. The tokenization of Currenc Group’s shares demonstrates practical implementation of blockchain-based equity trading for publicly listed companies.
Sources: Securitize (Twitter/X)
This article was generated automatically by The Defiant’s AI news system from publicly available sources.
Zcash (ZEC) rallied after President Donald Trump announced a two-week ceasefire deal with Iran, leading gains in a broader relief rally across global risk markets.
Key takeaways:
-
A 2021-style fractal warns ZEC price could fall 40% toward in the coming weeks.
-
Over $50 million in long leverage sits below current prices, leaving ZEC exposed to a possible crash.
ZEC rally risks becoming a 2021-style bull trap
The privacy coin rose over 30% in the past 24 hours to $336.50 on Tuesday, its highest level since January. Its top rivals also climbed, with Monero (XMR) up 3% and Dash (DASH) up 8%.
ZEC’s latest rebound is starting to resemble the setup that followed its 2021 peak. Back then, it entered a prolonged bear cycle after peaking near $392.
During this correction, ZEC underwent multiple sharp bounces after testing its 0.238 Fibonacci retracement line at around $85, only to see its upside momentum weakening underneath a descending trendline resistance.
Zcash’s current setup looks similar. Its 0.236 Fib level near $197 is again acting as strong support, while a descending trendline continues to cap upside attempts.
A continued rebound could lift ZEC toward its 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level near $370, which also lines up with the descending trendline resistance.
But the rally could lose steam if bulls fail to break above the trend line, raising the risk of a pullback toward the $197–$200 support zone. In that case, the current move may start to look like the 2021 bull trap setup.
Related: Zcash devs raise $25M from major VCs months after ECC split
Conversely, a decisive breakout above the trendline may trigger a falling wedge breakout setup, with a measured upside target at around $1,200.
In the past, multiple analysts, including BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes and Alphractal CEO and Co-Founder Joao Wedson, have predicted the ZEC price to reach $1,000 or higher.
ZEC liquidation data raises downside risks
Zcash’s liquidation heatmap points to greater downside risk in the coming weeks.
For instance, Binance’s ZEC/USDT contracts may see $3.81 million worth of cumulative short liquidations if the price rallies above $380 in the coming weeks.
In comparison, roughly $50.56 million in cumulative long positions could be wiped out if the price drops below $260.
Markets tend to move toward zones where many leveraged positions are concentrated. In ZEC’s case, the larger concentration sits below the current price, where long liquidations far exceed potential short liquidations above.
The heatmap also highlights $305–$306 as the largest single liquidation pocket, with about $1.76 million in leveraged positions clustered in that range. That makes it an important near-term level to watch.
This article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trades carry risk; readers are encouraged to conduct independent research before making any decisions. Cointelegraph makes no guarantees regarding the accuracy or completeness of the information presented, including forward-looking statements, and will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from reliance on this content.
On-chain AI agents are increasingly capable of reasoning through complex DeFi strategies, but ERC-8211’s devs say a shared on-chain execution layer was lacking.
Blockchain infrastructure company Biconomy has unveiled ERC-8211, an execution standard for on-chain AI agents, co-developed with the Ethereum Foundation, per an X post on April 7. The development falls under the EF’s Improve UX initiative.
The new standard — referred to as “smart batching” — lets AI agents carry out complex, multi-step DeFi strategies without pre-encoding every parameter at signing time. The specification was published on April 6 alongside an open-source reference implementation and a live demo.
The proposal lists four authors, primarily current and former Biconomy engineers: Mislav Javor, Filip Dujmušić, Filipp Makarov, and Venkatesh Rajendran.
According to Biconomy’s X post announcing the development, the core issue facing on-chain agent interaction with protocols is that current batch execution on Ethereum is static and locks in calldata before a transaction hits the chain. But DeFi is dynamic: swap outputs shift with slippage, bridge fees fluctuate, and lending vault ratios change block by block.
The post illustrates the issue with an example of an agent trying to swap ETH for USDC on Ethereum, and then deposit the USDC to a DeFi lending protocol like Aave. The agent in that case has to estimate the swap output in advance. Estimate too high and the batch reverts, estimate too low and funds sit idle.
“Static batching forces a bad choice: hardcode an optimistic amount and risk a revert, or underestimate conservatively and leave value stranded,” the X post reads.
ERC-8211’s smart batching introduces three “building blocks” to address the issues around static batching: fetchers that read live on-chain state at execution time, constraints that validate resolved values before each call proceeds, and predicate entries — a way to check whether on-chain conditions are met.
As Ethereum’s official account put it in an X post today, the standard “allows users and agents to express multi-step composable actions as a simple off-chain script with built-in safety.”
Per Biconomy’s announcement post, the standard is account-agnostic, and compatible with ERC-7683, ERC-4337, and interoperability standards that are supported by the Ethereum Foundation Protocol’s Improve UX track.
The authors also note that the standard is designed to complement the broader agent infrastructure stack on Ethereum, namely ERC-8004 for agent identification and reputation, ERC-8183 for agent-to-agent commerce, and Coinbase-developed agent payment protocol x402.
An Ethereum Magicians discussion thread for the new standard is open for technical feedback, the announcement notes.
As The Defiant reported last month, the number of ERC-8004 AI agents registered across blockchain networks has grown sharply this year, with the largest number of agents using the standard on BNB Smart Chain. Yet most remain limited to basic swaps and transfers.
On the infrastructure side, the Ethereum Foundation has also recently set up a dedicated “dAI Team” aimed at making Ethereum the preferred settlement layer for AI agents and the machine economy, as The Defiant reported.
This article was written with the assistance of AI workflows. All our stories are curated, edited and fact-checked by a human.
Bitcoin bulls failed to stay above $72,000 for long as BTC price action already began to discount the impact of a US-Iran ceasefire agreement.
Bitcoin (BTC) hit new three-week highs into Wednesday’s Wall Street open as stocks surged on a US-Iran ceasefire.
Key points:
-
Bitcoin briefly hits new three-week highs before round-tripping its gains.
-
Iran ceasefire relief fails to last as traders demand that bulls reclaim higher levels.
-
More volatility is due thanks to US inflation reports.
BTC price fails to stay above $72,000
Data from TradingView captured BTC/USD reaching $72,865 on Bitstamp before cooling the day’s gains.
News of a minimum two-week ceasefire between the US, Israel and Iran sent risk assets higher in an instant, with the S&P 500 up by more than 2.5% at the open.
WTI crude oil declined to as low as $91 per barrel as oil-supply crisis fears eased and traffic began to resume through the Strait of Hormuz. This came despite reports of an attack on a Saudi oil pipeline.
“The S&P 500 is now set to open above 6,800, trading just 2.9% away from a new record high. The index has added +$1.6 TRILLION today,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter wrote in its latest market coverage on X.
Among Bitcoin market participants, the relief was also palpable.
“I mentioned earlier that a ceasefire would be a clear direction on the markets. It happened,” crypto trader Michaël Van de Poppe wrote in an X response.
“Bitcoin breaks through the crucial $71K level and builds a bullish structure. Oil is down and the Strait is open, which means that there’s a mean reversion play active on Bitcoin.”
Van de Poppe described the need to hold support at $69,500 as “crucial.”
“That would strengthen the entire theory of a higher lows, higher highs and continues the momentum upwards and is likely going to fall alongside a new all-time high on the Nasdaq,” he added.
More inflation volatility on the horizon
Trader Daan Crypto Trades meanwhile said that $72,000, a sticking point in recent weeks, needed to be cleared.
Related: Bitcoin RSI ‘nearly perfectly’ copying end of 2022 bear market: Analysis
“Another day another test of the $72K level. Let’s see if the bulls can push through this time around,” he told X followers.
“I want to see a clean break and hold above that area. Ideally for more than 1-2 days this time.”
Earlier, Cointelegraph reported on other traders’ concerns about overall BTC price strength, which argued that Bitcoin bulls “still have a lot of work to do.”
The remainder of the week will see key US inflation releases, these set to show the initial impact of the Iran conflict and spark characteristic risk-asset volatility.
This article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trades carry risk; readers are encouraged to conduct independent research before making any decisions. Cointelegraph makes no guarantees regarding the accuracy or completeness of the information presented, including forward-looking statements, and will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from reliance on this content.
Key Takeaways
- Successful investing relies on consistent discipline rather than market forecasting.
- Strategic diversification minimizes losses from incorrect investment decisions.
- Growing economic downturn worries underscore the need for stronger risk management.
- Market analysts increasingly emphasize defensive positioning, quality assets, and liquidity.
- Successful investors stick to systematic approaches and resist emotion-driven choices.
Superior investment performance doesn’t come from accurately predicting market movements. Instead, it emerges from cultivating consistent practices that enhance decision-making quality, particularly during periods of heightened uncertainty and negative sentiment.
This approach proves especially relevant today. Economic downturn anxieties have intensified amid inflationary pressures, elevated oil prices, and international conflicts affecting economic projections. Recent Reuters coverage highlighted Goldman Sachs increasing its U.S. recession probability forecast to 30%, while Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson acknowledged dual risks facing employment stability and price levels.
Prioritize methodology over speculation
Many market participants assume winning strategies depend on identifying ideal securities at opportune moments. However, accomplished investors typically achieve results through consistent, systematic frameworks that eliminate common pitfalls undermining portfolio performance.
This requires understanding your rationale for each holding, recognizing its function within your overall allocation, and identifying potential failure scenarios. It demands acknowledging that perfect accuracy remains impossible.
Warren Buffett emphasized this principle when noting that “temperament is also important,” highlighting how emotional discipline significantly influences investment outcomes. This wisdom endures because many devastating portfolio errors occur when panic or euphoria drives decision-making.
Among the most valuable practices investors can develop is documenting the thesis behind each acquisition. When you cannot articulate your investment case concisely, you likely haven’t achieved sufficient comprehension.
Acknowledge downside scenarios and diversify strategically
Sophisticated investors don’t fixate exclusively on potential gains. They seriously consider outcomes when their assumptions prove incorrect.
This consideration becomes critical amid heightened recession concerns. Late March Reuters reporting indicated Morgan Stanley reduced global equity exposure while increasing allocations to cash and U.S. Treasuries as market participants adopted more protective stances. Reuters additionally noted American financial advisors expressing elevated concern regarding volatility, inflation, and geopolitical uncertainty entering the second quarter.
Diversification stands among the most accessible yet powerful mechanisms available to investors. While it won’t eliminate losses entirely, it prevents isolated errors, sector-specific troubles, or single macroeconomic themes from inflicting excessive harm.
This entails distributing capital across varied asset categories, sectors, and geographic markets. Resilient portfolios typically blend growth-oriented positions with stability-focused holdings rather than concentrating everything in fashionable themes.
Gold may serve a function within this framework. Reuters recently cited UBS Global Wealth Management’s Solita Marcelli stating, “Gold continues to play its historical role as a haven during periods of currency debasement and inflation.” While gold shouldn’t constitute an entire strategy, modest protective positions offer value when risk factors intensify.
Maintain consistency during market turbulence
Investment’s greatest challenge frequently isn’t security selection. Rather, it’s maintaining rational strategies when markets gyrate wildly and emotions intensify.
This difficulty appears to be escalating. April 8 Reuters coverage reported volatility-focused funds liquidated approximately $108 billion in equities since early March, amplifying market fluctuations during an anxious period. Such selling creates pressure for investors to respond quickly, even when immediate action proves counterproductive.
This explains why systematic discipline proves essential. March Reuters reporting highlighted BlackRock CEO Larry Fink encouraging clients to maintain market exposure despite volatility, while recognizing that artificial intelligence gains and broader market advances may distribute unevenly. This guidance provides value by combining prudence with persistence.
Several straightforward practices generate meaningful improvements. Contribute according to predetermined schedules rather than attempting to time entries perfectly. Rebalance at established intervals instead of responding to every news cycle. Maintain adequate cash reserves so downturns present opportunities rather than crises. Reduce portfolio review frequency if constant monitoring triggers poor choices.
Concluding Perspective
Top-performing investors rarely exhibit the most aggressive behavior or loudest predictions. Instead, they demonstrate composure, acknowledge risk parameters, implement thoughtful diversification, and adhere to systematic processes during uncertain conditions. With recession probabilities rising yet forecasts remaining ambiguous, this moment favors prioritizing disciplined execution over prediction attempts. This fundamental reorientation can substantially enhance long-term investment performance.
Hours after US President Donald Trump claimed that Iran and the United States had agreed to a two-week ceasefire that included opening the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian authorities are reportedly considering charging ships using the waterway in cryptocurrency.
According to a Wednesday Financial Times report, a spokesperson for Iran’s Oil, Gas and Petrochemical Products Exporters’ Union said empty oil tankers will be able to pass through the Strait of Hormuz without incurring charges, but certain ships will need to pay a tariff of $1 per barrel of oil in Bitcoin (BTC).
The spokesperson, Hamid Hosseini, reportedly said Iranian authorities would also assess each ship using the waterway over the two-week period to ensure it wasn’t transporting weapons.
“Once the email arrives and Iran completes its assessment, vessels are given a few seconds to pay in Bitcoin, ensuring they can’t be traced or confiscated due to sanctions,” said Hosseini, according to the Financial Times.
Many ships have effectively been cut off from using the Strait of Hormuz to transport oil and other supplies after US-Israel air strikes on Iranian targets in February and March. Amid the move by Iran and geopolitical tensions, the price of crude oil exceeded $100 per barrel for the first time in four years and the prices of many cryptocurrencies were volatile, with BTC fluctuating between $65,000 and $75,000.
Related: Bitcoin reclaims $72K after US, Iran agree to 2-week ceasefire
Trump claimed on his Truth Social platform on Tuesday that the ceasefire deal included the suspension of the “bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks” and the “complete, immediate, and safe opening of the Strait of Hormuz.” Iran’s state media reported that the country delivered a 10-point plan to the US president as a condition for the deal, including continued control of the waterway and the end of sanctions on Iran.
Prior to war, Iran still used crypto to bolster its currency
Before the escalation of hostilities between US-Israeli forces and Iran in February, reports suggested that Iran had been using digital assets to evade sanctions amid its currency, the rial, dropping against the US dollar.
Blockchain analytics platform Elliptic reported in January that Iran’s central bank acquired half a billion dollars worth of Tether’s USDt (USDT) stablecoin. TRM Labs also tracked about $3.7 billion in total crypto flows in Iran between January and July 2025.
Magazine: ‘Phantom Bitcoin’ checks, Drift hack linked to North Korea: Asia Express
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