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Polymarket traders bet on Iran ceasefire even as oil shock concerns persist: Crypto Daybook Americas

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By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

The Iran war has single-handedly soured the macro environment for risk-takers in financial markets, and some participants are betting it could end soon.

Onchain data tracked by Polymarket tracker PolymarketHistory shows that 10 wallets sprang to life on Sunday, wagering a cumulative $160,000 on a ceasefire by the end of March and eyeing a potential payout of over $1,000,000. The wallets have no prior transaction history and were created at the same time, raising suspicions of potential insider positioning on the outcome.

In any case, if the war ends, markets, including cryptocurrencies, could see a relief bounce.

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For now, however, the conflict is in its fourth week and keeping valuations under pressure. Bitcoin held below $69,000 at the time of writing, maintaining losses from the weekend. Ether fell to $2,030, its sixth decline in seven days. XRP (XRP), solana (SOL), and others were also under pressure, while a few privacy tokens such as NIGHT and XMR stood out with gains of over 3% in the past 24 hours.

“The market is trading one theme above all others: geopolitical inflation. The weekend brought a new escalation phase, including U.S. pressure on Iran over the Strait of Hormuz and further threats to regional energy infrastructure. That has kept oil risk elevated and left investors pricing a longer period of tight financial conditions,” Timothy Misir, head of research at BRN, said in an email.

“Bitcoin still has the cleanest value-capture profile in crypto for this tape: scarce asset, improving institutional plumbing, and relative flow leadership versus the rest of the complex.,” he said.

Market flows, however, have yet to validate that view. U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs registered outflows for the third straight day on Friday, alongside significant selling by large holders, or whales.

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Ether, too, has seen large liquidations. A whale holding over 130,000 ETH sold 5,000 ETH ($10.31 million) at $2,063, according to Lookonchain.

In traditional markets, U.S. Treasury yields have surged to multimonth highs, signaling tighter financial conditions ahead, while futures tied to the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 hit their lowest levels since early November. Stay alert!

Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today

What to Watch

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.

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  • Crypto
  • Macro
    • March 23, 10:00 a.m.: U.S. Construction Spending MoM for January est. 0.1% (Prev. 0.3%).
  • Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
    • March 23: BTCS Inc. (BTCS), post-market, $0.01

Token Events

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.

  • Governance votes & calls
    • Aave DAO is voting on deploying Aave V4 with a security-first initial setup, conservative risk parameters and a modular hub and spoke architecture. Voting ends March 23.
    • Floki DAO is voting to rank entries from Floki’s third guerrilla marketing competition. Voting ends March 23.
  • Unlocks
  • Token Launches
    • March 23: HTX DAO (HTX) staking launches officially

Conferences

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.

Market Movements

  • BTC is up 3.01% from 4 p.m. ET Sunday at $71,044.86 (24hrs: +3.56%)
  • ETH is up 5.07% at $2,168.32 (24hrs: +4.20%)
  • CoinDesk 20 is up 3.05% at 2,030.41 (24hrs: 2.56%)
  • Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 13 bps at 2.83%
  • BTC funding rate is at -0.0017% (-1.8177% annualized) on Binance
CD20
  • DXY is up 0.45% at 104.30
  • Gold futures are down 7.27% at $4,238.30
  • Silver futures are down 8.18% at $63.69
  • Nikkei 225 closed down 3.48% at 51,515.49
  • Hang Seng closed down 3.54% at 24,382.47
  • FTSE 100 is down 2.03% at 9,716.51
  • Euro Stoxx 50 is down 2.01% at 5,390.70
  • DJIA closed on Friday down 0.96% at 45,577.47
  • S&P 500 closed down 1.51% at 6,506.48
  • Nasdaq Composite closed down 2.01% at 21,647.61
  • S&P/TSX Composite closed down 1.69% at 31,317.41
  • S&P 40 Latin America closed down 1.15% at 3,150.00
  • U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 11 bps at 4.39%
  • E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 1.03% at 6,626.75
  • E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.54% at 24,231
  • E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 1.15% at 46,147

Bitcoin Stats

  • BTC Dominance: 58.89% (0.52%)
  • Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.02989 (-1.24%)
  • Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 963 EH/s
  • Hashprice (spot): $32.30
  • Total fees: 2.07 BTC / $142,462
  • CME Futures Open Interest: 116,195 BTC
  • BTC priced in gold: 16 oz.
  • BTC vs gold market cap: 4.58%

Technical Analysis

Daily swings in bitcoin's 30-day implied volatility index in candlestick format. (TradingView)
Daily swings in bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility index in candlestick format. (TradingView)
  • The chart shows daily swings in bitcoin’s 30-day implied (expected) volatility index, BVIV, since October.
  • BVIV has bounced to 59% from 53% on Wednesday, and further gains may be in the offing.
  • That’s because the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) sits well above the 200-day SMA and is trending north. It shows that the near-term trend is up.
  • Heightened volatility is usually a feature of a bear market.

Crypto Equities

  • Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Friday at $197.50 (-2.67%), -2.78% at $192 in pre-market
  • Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $20.72 (-1.57%), -3.19% at $20.06
  • MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $8.46 (-8.24%), -3.07% at $8.20
  • Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $13.38 (-5.37%), -4.33% at $12.80
  • Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $15.81 (-4.07%), -2.09% at $15.48
  • CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.40 (-4.37%), -3.19% at $9.10
  • Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $7.38 (-4.53%)
  • CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF (WGMI): closed at $37.68 (-3.63%)
  • Circle Internet Group (CRCL): closed at $126.03 (-1.79%), -4.36% at $120.54
  • Bullish (BLSH): closed at $37.97 (-4.12%), -4.40% at $36.30

Crypto Treasury Companies

  • Strategy (MSTR): closed at $135.66 (-1.87%), -2.70% at $132.00
  • Sharplink (SBET): closed at $7.40 (-3.65%), -4.46% at $7.07
  • Strive Asset Management (ASST): closed at $10.02 (-2.34%), -3.79% at $9.64
  • Upexi (UPXI): closed at $1.06 (-0.93%), -6.59% at $0.99
  • Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.17

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

  • Daily net flows: -$52 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $56.21 billion
  • Total BTC holdings ~1.29 million

Spot ETH ETFs

  • Daily net flows: -$42 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $11.76 billion
  • Total ETH holdings ~5.69 million

Source: Farside Investors

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Monero Price Prediction: XMR Trapped Below $180 as Exchange Liquidity Dries Up

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Monero Price Prediction: XMR Trapped Below $180 as Exchange Liquidity Dries Up

Monero (XMR) slammed into a brick wall at $380 this week, fueling a bearish Monero price prediction as momentum drains from the privacy coin sector.

The rejection was violent and precise. Price action is now curling downward, trapped beneath the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) with bears firmly in control of the tape.

Monero Price Prediction: Can XMR Hold $150 or Is a Crash to $135 Coming?

XMR is sitting at $355.95 on the 2h chart, and the structure here is messy but there is something worth noting underneath the noise.

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Price got absolutely obliterated in early February, dropping from above $400 all the way to $287 in a near-vertical flush, and what has happened since then is a slow and choppy recovery that has been grinding higher lows over the past 6 weeks without ever fully breaking down again.

Source: XMRUSD / TradingView

The $400 level marked on the chart as a red dotted line is the psychological and technical ceiling that has not been reclaimed since the initial dump, and every rally attempt since February has failed to get back there, including the most recent push to $383 which rolled over and pulled back to the $340 range before bouncing again.

The current price action shows XMR bouncing off the $340 area for the second time in a week, which is starting to define that zone as a short term support floor, and the move back toward $356 suggests buyers are showing up there consistently.

The immediate resistance to clear is the $360 to $370 range where price has been churning, and above that the $383 recent high is the last wall before $400 comes back into view.

The bearish case is straightforward, lower highs since the February peak combined with a choppy recovery structure suggests this is distribution rather than accumulation, and a break below $340 would open the door back toward the $305 to $310 lows.

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The $400 level is the line in the sand. Until that gets reclaimed, this chart is still in recovery mode, not breakout mode.

Discover: The best new crypto in the world

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BlackRock’s Larry Fink warns against trying to time the market

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BlackRock’s Larry Fink warns against trying to time the market

Larry Fink, Chairman and CEO of BlackRock, speaks during an interview with CNBC on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., Jan. 15, 2026.

Brendan McDermid | Reuters

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink urged investors to resist the temptation to time markets, arguing that staying invested through periods of turmoil has historically delivered far stronger returns.

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“Over time, staying invested has mattered far more than getting the timing right,” Fink wrote in his annual chairman’s letter released Monday. “Some of the market’s strongest days came amid the most unsettling headlines.”

He pointed to the past two decades as a stark example: every dollar invested in the S&P 500 grew more than eightfold. But investors who missed just the 10 best days over that stretch would have earned less than half as much.

The warning from the billionaire comes as markets are increasingly driven by rapid shifts in sentiment tied to geopolitics, inflation and technological disruption. Stocks rallied sharply Monday after President Donald Trump said the U.S. and Iran have held talks and that he was halting strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure.

“The danger is that we focus so much on the noise that we forget what actually matters,” Fink wrote. “The forces behind today’s headlines have been building for a long time. The old model of global capitalism is fracturing. Countries are spending enormous sums to become self-reliant — in energy, in defense, in technology.”

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BlackRock is the world’s largest asset manager with a $14 trillion in assets under management at the end of 2025.

Fink also warned that the rapid rise of artificial intelligence could amplify inequality, enriching those who already own assets while leaving others further behind.

“The massive wealth created over the past several generations flowed mostly to people who already owned financial assets. And now AI threatens to repeat that pattern at an even larger scale,” he said.

Companies tied to AI have driven a significant share of recent equity market gains, concentrating returns among a relatively small group of firms and their shareholders.

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SIGN’s 100M ‘Orange Basic Income’ pushes DeFi toward self-custody

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SIGN’s 100M “Orange Basic Income” locks rewards on-chain and pays higher yields to wallets that keep SIGN in self-custody instead of on centralized exchanges.

SIGN has unveiled its “Orange Basic Income” (OBI) initiative, a 100 million token incentive program designed to pay users for holding SIGN in self-custody wallets rather than on centralized exchanges. The project describes OBI as a way to “reward real on-chain holders” and to “redefine value rewards for long-term holders” by tying payouts directly to wallet balances and how long tokens remain under self-custody.

SIGN is the native utility token of the Sign ecosystem, an omni-chain attestation and token-distribution infrastructure originally incubated by the EthSign team. The protocol underpins products like Sign Protocol, TokenTable and SignPass, which handle on-chain identity, credential verification, airdrops, vesting and unlocks across Ethereum and other major networks. SIGN launched its token in late April 2025 with a total supply of 10 billion, following several funding rounds backed by venture investors and a large community airdrop allocation. The project is now positioning SIGN as a long-term governance and incentive asset for builders, institutions and the “Orange Dynasty” community aligned around self-custody and transparent on-chain distribution rails.

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According to the launch materials, Season 1 of OBI will distribute up to 25 million SIGN, with 9 million tokens reserved purely for holding rewards. “To participate, users must hold their SIGN in a self-custody wallet,” one explainer states, adding that “tokens held on exchanges or locked in third-party platforms do not qualify.” The token itself trades under the ticker SIGN, with live pricing and market data available on its dedicated page in the crypto.news market-cap section.

OBI is explicitly framed as a break with yield products that resemble traditional staking. Rather than promising a fixed percentage return, SIGN calculates rewards using a time-based formula that tracks on-chain balances over the course of a season, favoring wallets that commit to holding through volatility while avoiding exchange custody. The team argues this approach “abandons the traditional fixed staking model” in favor of a mechanism that more closely aligns incentives with decentralization and user control.

In its announcement thread on X, SIGN called the program “Holder Supremacy,” urging users to “secure your eligibility by moving your $SIGN to a self-custody wallet” before each snapshot. The launch comes as DeFi protocols from lending platforms to liquid-staking services race to distinguish themselves with more transparent reward structures, and mirrors a wider industry trend of traders shifting away from centralized venues toward self-custody and on-chain liquidity.

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To back the scheme, the foundation says all 100 million OBI tokens are locked in a public on-chain custody address, with funds sourced from a prior strategic buyback. This, SIGN argues, ensures that “each quarterly reward is fully collateralized and publicly transparent,” a structure aimed at institutional users and regulators wary of opaque token incentive programs and DeFi yield promises.

Analysts are now watching how OBI affects metrics like token velocity, wallet counts and the proportion of SIGN held off exchanges, as these will reveal whether self-custody incentives meaningfully change investor behavior. At the same time, the move lands amid mounting policy debates over hardware wallets, DeFi oversight and self-custody rules, underscoring how programs that push assets off centralized platforms could become a focal point in the next phase of crypto regulation.

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Super Micro Computer (SMCI) Stock Plunges 33% Following Co-Founder’s Federal Smuggling Indictment

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SMCI Stock Card

Key Highlights

  • Super Micro Computer shares plunged 33% on March 20, settling at $20.53, following the unsealing of criminal indictments against three company-connected individuals, including co-founder Wally Liaw
  • Federal prosecutors allege Liaw orchestrated the smuggling of approximately $2.5 billion worth of Nvidia-equipped AI servers to China in violation of U.S. export regulations
  • Liaw stepped down from his board position immediately upon arrest; DeAnna Luna assumed the role of interim Chief Compliance Officer
  • Northland Securities analyst Nehal Chokshi reduced SMCI’s rating to Hold while cutting the price target by 65%, from $63 down to $22
  • Technical indicators show SMCI’s 14-day RSI dropping to approximately 24, indicating oversold territory, while short interest registers at 14.7%

Super Micro Computer (SMCI) experienced one of its worst trading sessions in recent memory. Shares collapsed 33% on March 20 following the Department of Justice’s unsealing of criminal indictments against three individuals connected to the server manufacturer.


SMCI Stock Card
Super Micro Computer, Inc., SMCI

The defendants include Yih-Shyan “Wally” Liaw, one of the company’s co-founders, who was taken into custody by federal authorities. Liaw tendered his resignation from the board of directors immediately after his arrest.

According to federal prosecutors, the accused individuals facilitated the illegal export of roughly $2.5 billion in Nvidia-based artificial intelligence servers to China, circumventing strict U.S. export control laws. The scheme allegedly involved routing the hardware through a Southeast Asian intermediary company for repackaging before final shipment to Chinese destinations.

Super Micro was not identified as a defendant in the criminal case. In response to the allegations, the company terminated one contract worker and placed two employees on suspension.

Board and Executive Restructuring

SMCI finished trading at $20.53 on March 20, a dramatic fall from its 2024 peak above $100. During pre-market hours on Monday, the stock traded near that closing price, briefly declining 0.88% before recovering to slightly positive territory.

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With Liaw’s exit, the board of directors now consists of eight members. The company tapped DeAnna Luna to serve as interim Chief Compliance Officer. Luna, who came aboard in 2024, brings more than two decades of trade compliance expertise from previous positions at Intel and Teledyne Technologies.

Super Micro also revealed it has divided the previously combined Chief Compliance Officer and Chief Financial Officer positions into separate roles. The company offered no explanation for Liaw’s departure and has not indicated whether it intends to appoint a replacement to fill the vacant board seat.

Wall Street Downgrades Price Expectations

Nehal Chokshi of Northland Securities lowered his rating on SMCI from Buy to Hold on Monday. His price objective was slashed 65%, dropping from $63 to $22.

Chokshi acknowledged the separation of the CCO and CFO roles as a constructive step but characterized it as “reactionary rather than proactive.” He cautioned that the stock would likely experience stagnant revenue and earnings until the company addresses the dual role of Charles Liang, who currently serves as both Chairman and CEO.

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Argus Research likewise downgraded SMCI to Hold in response to the criminal charges. According to TipRanks, the consensus rating stands at Hold, based on two Buy recommendations, eight Hold ratings, and three Sell calls. The mean price target among analysts is $34.33.

This development compounds an already challenging period for the organization. Late in 2024, auditing firm Ernst & Young abruptly resigned, citing alleged independence issues between the board and executive management. Super Micro has additionally struggled with delayed regulatory submissions and received compliance notifications from Nasdaq during this timeframe.

From a technical perspective, the chart presents concerning signals. The 14-day Relative Strength Index hovers around 24, indicating oversold conditions while also reflecting continued selling momentum. The stock is trading beneath all significant moving averages, including the 50-day average, confirming a sustained downward trend. Current short interest is approximately 14.7%.

The analyst consensus price target of $34.33 suggests potential upside of 67.2% from present levels, although the route to that valuation remains uncertain given the ongoing federal legal proceedings.

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Nebius (NBIS) Stock Secures $4.34B Convertible Debt for AI Infrastructure Expansion

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NBIS Stock Card

Key Highlights

  • Nebius successfully completed a $4.34 billion convertible debt offering divided between two separate note tranches maturing in 2031 and 2033
  • The financing follows major agreements including a $27 billion data center supply partnership with Meta and a $2 billion investment from Nvidia
  • The company intends to finance 60% of expansion through customer prepayments from partners like Meta and Microsoft
  • Equity and debt instruments will cover the remaining 40% of funding requirements
  • Nebius has established a $16–20 billion capital expenditure goal for 2026

Nebius Group (NBIS) has successfully finalized a $4.34 billion convertible debt offering, securing substantial capital as the company accelerates its AI infrastructure expansion strategy.

The financing package comprised two distinct components. Nebius issued $2.58 billion in 1.250% convertible notes maturing in 2031 — which included an additional $337.5 million tranche exercised by investors — plus $1.75 billion in 2.625% notes with a 2033 maturity date. Investors also have the opportunity to purchase an additional $262.5 million in the longer-maturity notes.


NBIS Stock Card
Nebius Group N.V., NBIS

Tom Blackwell, Chief Communications Officer, noted the offering was expanded because of robust investor appetite. “We’ve managed to achieve a large amount of funding while really minimizing the dilution,” he stated.

The capital raise arrives during an exceptionally active period for Nebius. Just this March, the company completed a $2 billion share warrant transaction with Nvidia at a strike price of $94.94 per share. Additionally, it finalized an agreement valued at up to $27 billion to provide Meta with data center infrastructure. This builds on a $17.3 billion supply arrangement with Microsoft that was signed last September.

Nebius stock finished trading on Friday at $117.62, while the convertible notes issued Monday were priced at a conversion premium of approximately 90% above that closing price.

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Capital Allocation Strategy

Nebius has outlined plans to secure 60% of expansion funding through customer advance payments — mainly from Microsoft and Meta — while the balance of 40% will be sourced through a combination of equity issuances and debt financing. Blackwell indicated the company remains open to additional large-scale supply agreements if the terms align properly. “They can be a very efficient source of capital,” he explained.

The organization has committed to a 2026 capital investment range of $16 billion to $20 billion. According to Blackwell, Nebius is now “well-funded” to execute on these objectives.

He dismissed worries about excessive expansion. “As long as enterprise AI adoption does continue to increase… the need for what we’re doing is going to make sense,” he remarked.

Cloud Services Strategy

Beyond physical infrastructure, Nebius views AI-focused cloud services as a critical long-term revenue opportunity. The strategy involves building software service layers atop its data center infrastructure — creating sustainable recurring revenue streams that extend beyond current infrastructure demand cycles.

Blackwell emphasized that the major contract victories also demonstrate the company’s technical credentials, not merely its financial capacity.

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Nebius revealed that both the Meta partnership and the Nvidia investment materialized within the past month, highlighting the accelerated pace of its strategic deal flow.

The company has not provided detailed allocation plans for the convertible debt proceeds, though the primary objective is financing ongoing data center expansion initiatives.

Monday marked the official completion of the financing round, concluding a significant capital-raising period that has elevated the company’s standing within AI infrastructure investment communities.

The 2033-maturity convertible notes featured a 2.63% interest rate, while the 2031 notes were priced at 1.250%.

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Backpack Exchange launches BP token with 25% airdrop, no insider allocation

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Backpack Exchange launches BP token with 25% airdrop, no insider allocation

Backpack Exchange, a Solana-based cryptocurrency trading platform, launched on Monday its native token, BP, detailing a token generation event (TGE) that includes a mix of user distribution, lockups and a mechanism tied to company equity.

At launch, 25% of the token’s 1 billion total supply—around 250 million BP—will be distributed, primarily through an airdrop to existing users. Most of that allocation is set aside for participants in Backpack’s points program, with a smaller portion reserved for holders of its “Mad Lads NFT collection.”

The company said no tokens have been allocated to founders, team members or investors at inception, a departure from many exchange token rollouts. The structure places a larger share of the initial distribution with users rather than insiders.

The remaining supply will be released through a multi-phase unlock schedule tied to company growth and potential public listing plans. About 37.5% of tokens are set to unlock over time based on operational milestones, such as market expansion or product launches, while another 37.5% will remain locked in a corporate treasury until after a potential IPO.

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Backpack also said long-term stakers may be able to convert BP into company equity, representing a share of the firm’s ownership. The mechanism links the token to the company’s broader capital markets plans, rather than limiting its role to trading incentives or governance.

“Backpack was founded by former FTX and Alameda Research employees and faced early scrutiny following the collapse of FTX in 2022. The company later acquired the defunct exchange’s European arm, relaunching it as Backpack EU as part of its push into regulated markets.

Read more: Backpack Opens Regulated Perpetuals Exchange in Europe After FTX EU Acquisition

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PepsiCo (PEP) Stock Gains 1.8% on China AI Expansion Announcement

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PEP Stock Card

Key Highlights

  • PepsiCo transitions from pilot programs to comprehensive AI implementation across China
  • Artificial intelligence applications span precision farming, production facilities, and logistics networks
  • Approximately 95% of Asia Pacific raw materials sourced locally; AI optimizes supply chain resilience
  • PEP shares advance 1.8% in premarket sessions, reaching $152.70
  • China initiative aligns with global AI partnership involving Siemens and NVIDIA

PepsiCo has launched a comprehensive artificial intelligence integration throughout its Chinese business operations. The beverage and snack giant has transitioned beyond experimental phases, implementing AI technology across its entire value chain in China — encompassing agricultural operations, production facilities, and consumer engagement strategies.


PEP Stock Card
PepsiCo, Inc., PEP

This initiative represents a fundamental operational transformation rather than merely a cost-reduction exercise.

Within agricultural operations, PepsiCo deploys AI technology to enhance harvest productivity and ingredient quality for domestically sourced materials. Given that roughly 95% of Asia Pacific ingredients originate locally, optimizing this segment carries significant strategic importance.

At the manufacturing level, artificial intelligence drives enhanced operational efficiency and production capacity expansion — all while maintaining current staffing levels. However, the company continues recruitment efforts as new production facilities come online throughout China.

Enhanced Consumer Intelligence Through AI

PepsiCo leverages AI-powered analytics platforms to decode Chinese consumer preferences and behaviors. These insights inform product development and targeted marketing initiatives designed for local market sensibilities.

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The corporation indicates these consumer insights drive portfolio evolution toward premium offerings with reduced sugar and sodium content that complement Chinese cooking traditions. Given the intense competitive landscape in China’s consumer goods sector, this localization strategy proves essential.

PEP shares reached $152.70 during premarket activity, representing a 1.8% advance. This positions the stock within its 52-week trading band of $127.60 to $171.48. Current shareholders receive a 3.8% dividend yield.

Strategic Partnerships with Siemens and NVIDIA

The Chinese AI deployment connects to an expansive global technology initiative. PepsiCo maintains a multi-year strategic partnership with Siemens and NVIDIA to implement AI systems and digital twin technology for facility optimization and supply chain redesign worldwide.

Initial testing phases from this collaboration have already demonstrated improved operational throughput alongside reduced capital investment requirements, per company reports.

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The Chinese AI implementation follows this established framework — leveraging technology to maximize existing asset utilization while simultaneously pursuing strategic physical expansion opportunities.

PepsiCo characterizes the China AI initiative as fundamental to its regional expansion strategy rather than an ancillary project. The company emphasizes that artificial intelligence now permeates every segment of its Chinese value chain.

The stock’s 1.8% premarket advance to $152.70 demonstrates investor enthusiasm regarding the announcement, though final closing prices will reflect broader market dynamics.

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Ethereum rallies 4% as Trump halts Iran strikes, offsetting whale dump

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Ethereum Price
Ethereum Price
  • Ethereum price rose to above $2,170 after Trump delayed US strikes on Iran.
  • An Ethereum OG whale sold 15,002 ETH for about $30.97 million via Coinbase.
  • Ethereum price hovers in the $2,000-$2,200 range.

Ethereum price pumped more than 4% in a sharp U-turn as downside pressure quickly gave way to upside movement amid market reaction to a fresh announcement by President Donald Trump.

However, the altcoin’s price remained near the critical $2,000 level amid notable whale offloading in the hours prior to Trump’s post on Monday.

Ethereum bounces sharply amid Trump announcement

Ethereum traded higher in early US trading hours, moving sharply from around $2,060 to above $2,170 as bulls attempted to recover from intraday lows.

The altcoin hovered near $2,150, boasting a 24-hour trading volume of over $19 billion.

A look at the markets shows Ethereum’s move to highs of $2,170 coincided with Bitcoin’s sudden uptick to the $70,000 area.

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BTC had dipped below $68,000 as the broader risk‑on mood suffered the sentiment around events in Iran and the Middle East.

However, President Trump’s announcement of a five-day pause in US strikes on Iran on Monday appeared to bolster buyers.

“The United States and Iran have had productive discussions over the past two days toward fully resolving hostilities in the Middle East. As talks continue this week, I’ve ordered a five-day pause on any military strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure, contingent on progress,” Trump posted on Truth Social.

Stocks also saw an uptick, economist Mohamed El-Erian pointed out via X.

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ETH prices had dropped as OG whale sold $31M ETH

On Monday, an Ethereum OG wallet labeled “0xa2F…F85A” moved 15,002 ETH to US-based crypto exchange Coinbase.

The total value of the coins stood at about $30.97 million at the time, on‑chain analytics platform Lookonchain noted.

The wallet originally accumulated around 172,700 ETH about a decade ago, when each token traded near $12.83, implying an initial outlay of roughly $2.2 million.

At current prices near the low‑$2,000s, that full stash would be valued at roughly $353 million, indicating substantial paper gains realized over the years.

Despite the huge cash out, the address still holds over 14,800 Ether and is one of the network’s long‑term holders.

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In a separate transaction, another whale sold 5,000 ETH worth about $10.3 million. The transfer happened at roughly $2,063 per token, slightly lower than the current price of ETH.

This whale still holds around 126,000 ETH, worth about $257 million, with this indicating overall long-term bullish sentiment.

Ethereum price key levels

From a technical standpoint, ETH is hovering within the short‑term support and resistance in the $2,000–$2,200 band.

As highlighted here, the $2,150 is a key level and upside momentum hinges on bulls keeping support intact.

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The downside, key bearish targets lie around $1,800, while bulls fancy $3,000 and the August 2025 all‑time high of $4,953.

 

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Airdrops Fueled Extraction, Ending Real Crypto Communities

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Crypto Breaking News

Opinion by: Nanak Nihal Khalsa, co-founder of Holonym Foundation

During the last crypto market cycle, airdrops were touted as a way to build community. In practice, they evolved into large-scale value-extraction schemes that rewarded automation and short-term surges over lasting commitment. The result was a structural misalignment: incentives that discouraged genuine belief and rewarded opportunistic behavior, leaving many participants feeling they were part of a competition rather than a community.

Between 2021 and 2024, token launches tended to favor low float and high fully diluted valuations, with point-based programs that rewarded activity more than intention or eligibility. The predictable outcome? Wallets multiplied, engagement was simulated, and shares of future supply were earmarked for rapid exit. Trust eroded as participation became transactional, loyalty proved transient, and governance started to feel like theater. When rewards hinge on volume rather than conviction, rare is the project that yields lasting, substantive communities.

Key takeaways

  • Airdrops often functioned as extraction playbooks: low float, high fully diluted valuations, and point programs that rewarded surface-level activity over meaningful commitment.
  • Points programs accelerated a race to automate and farm; real users with limited bandwidth were crowded out, undermining the integrity of early distribution.
  • Token sales are re-emerging as an alternative distribution model, but with selective access, identity considerations, and allocation caps to curb dominance by automated actors.
  • Privacy-preserving identity is being treated as infrastructure—needed to verify unique participation without revealing personal data, balancing openness with protection.
  • Wallet design and identity are converging into a single system aimed at resisting manipulation and building longer-term relationships between users and protocols.

From open launches to curated access

The industry is increasingly approaching token launches with a fundamental shift in distribution logic. ICO-style events, once open to anyone with a wallet, exposed the ecosystem to whale dominance, regulatory blind spots, and accountability gaps. Today’s experiments introduce filters and signals designed to identify participants who are likely to stay engaged beyond a single speculative cycle. Identity signals, on-chain behavior analysis, and jurisdiction-aware participation are becoming more common, along with allocation limits intended to prevent runaway concentration.

These changes are not simply about nostalgia for the old days of broad access; they reflect a practical recognition that permissionless distribution without guardrails invites capital leaks to automation and rapid dumping. The aim is to ensure that new tokens reach users who will contribute to long-term health, governance, and stability, rather than a transient crowd animated by hype alone.

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In this context, some token launches are edging toward a model where eligibility criteria and access controls are part of the fabric of the protocol, not constraints imposed after the fact. As a result, questions about what constitutes fair access, how to enforce limits, and which signals are trustworthy are moving from footnotes to central design considerations.

Identity, privacy, and the evolution of distribution

One of the most pressing tensions in crypto governance today is how to balance openness with accountability. The industry has spent years promoting permissionless participation, yet the most valuable moments increasingly depend on some form of admission control. Without it, automation can overwhelm the system; with it, there is a risk of recreating surveillance-heavy paradigms many projects sought to escape.

Privacy-preserving identity is emerging as essential infrastructure rather than a philosophical stance. If teams want to limit one person to one allocation, prevent bot-driven governance, and show basic compliance without collecting exhaustive personal dossiers, they need systems that prove properties about participants without revealing who they are. The alternative—full openness or heavy-handed KYC—either invites distortion or erodes trust. The goal is to build a framework where users can prove uniqueness across a suite of applications, maintain consistent accounts, and avoid managing fragile secrets with every new launch.

Related discussions have highlighted real-world frictions, such as Sybil attacks during presales. For example, Cointelegraph noted incidents where presales were hijacked by coordinated wallet clusters, underscoring the need for more robust identity and anti-abuse measures (reference coverage).

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Beyond identity, the wallet layer itself remains a critical choke point. Fragmented accounts, recovery fragilities, and browser-based signing vulnerabilities amplify the risk of hacks, loss of access, and post-launch attrition. When distribution hinges on tools that are brittle or spoofable, the resulting ecosystem inherits those weaknesses. A more holistic design—where identity, wallets, and distribution are treated as an interconnected system—appears increasingly necessary for durable participation rather than one-off events.

Several projects are pursuing this integrated approach: a user could demonstrate uniqueness without doxing, transact across apps with a single, coherent account, and control sensitive data without exposing themselves to unnecessary risks. If these pieces lock into a coherent architecture, distribution may evolve from a single launch moment into an ongoing relationship, with participants who care enough to stay, contribute, and govern.

Ultimately, the shift is less about who gets in and more about shaping sustainable alignment. Projects that emphasize human-centric design—fewer, more engaged participants who remain for the long run—tend to show stronger retention, healthier governance participation, and more resilient markets. This is not a matter of ideology; it is observable in how users engage once incentives are aligned with genuine belief rather than short-term gain.

Looking ahead, the winners will be those that treat distribution as infrastructure rather than marketing. They will bake in defense against automation, design for provable integrity, and view identity as a tool to protect both users and ecosystems. Some friction, thoughtfully applied, can be a feature that sustains engagement rather than a barrier to entry.

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Airdrops did not fail because users are inherently greedy. They failed because the system rewarded greed while penalizing commitment. If crypto wants broader, healthier adoption, it must shift incentives toward belonging and long-term value creation, not ephemeral wins. Token launches, as a visible facet of this evolution, will reveal who can translate that philosophy into durable practice.

Related context: For a contemporary look at how these dynamics play out in live launches, recent coverage highlights ongoing debates around identity, access, and control in new token distributions.

Author note: Nanak Nihal Khalsa is the co-founder of Holonym Foundation, focused on privacy-respecting, user-centric infrastructure for decentralized ecosystems.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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BNB Price Prediction: Pump To $730 or Drop To Under $600

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BNB price is at the $640 level as of now, recording a daily gain of 1.9% amidst the Bitcoin 2.5% pump and a bullish overall prediction.

BNB price is at the $640 level as of now, recording a slight daily gain of 1.9% amidst the Bitcoin 2.5% pump and a bullish overall prediction. The asset has shed more than 5% over the last week, retreating from highs as traders secure profits.

With volume currently sitting at $1.33 billion, participation is thinning significantly. Technical indicators suggest the fourth-largest cryptocurrency is stuck in a consolidation phase, forcing active traders to weigh the opportunity cost of holding through the chop versus rotating capital into emerging narratives.

BNB price is at the $640 level as of now, recording a daily gain of 1.9% amidst the Bitcoin 2.5% pump and a bullish overall prediction.
BNB DEX Volume, Defillama

BNB Price Prediction: Can Binance Coin Reclaim $730 as Volume Dips?

The technical setup for BNB presents a conflict between long-term strength and short-term weakness. While the 200-day moving average remains bullish, actively sloping upward since mid-March, practically every short-term signal flashes caution.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at a neutral 50 level, providing no clear directional bias, while the ADX at 27.74 confirms a trend is present but lacks the momentum to force a breakout.

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BNB price is at the $640 level as of now, recording a daily gain of 1.9% amidst the Bitcoin 2.5% pump and a bullish overall prediction.
BNB USD, TradingView

Price action is currently confined within Bollinger Bands ranging from $594 (support) to $682(resistance). A failure to hold the $620 level could see a retest of the lower band. Conversely, forecasts from Binance analysts suggest a potential quarterly climb to $925.86 if macro conditions stabilize. However, the immediate volume profile is concerning; without a surge in buying pressure, the projected 15.9% monthly move to $730 appears optimistic (even unlikely) in the current low-liquidity environment.

Discover: The Best New Crypto

Maxi Doge Targets 1000x Leverage Culture as Major Caps Stall

While BNB consolidates with an $88 billion market cap, traders seeking volatility are increasingly looking down-market. Large caps often act as stable collateral, but in a sideways market, they rarely offer the aggressive multiples sought by retail capital. This rotation is evidenced by the thinning liquidity in majors, as speculative funds flow toward high-beta meme tokens that capitalize on specific subcultures.

One project absorbing this liquidity is Maxi Doge ($MAXI), a new entrant branding itself around the “Leverage King” mentality. Distinct from the soft aesthetics of typical dog coins, Maxi Doge features a 240-lb canine juggernaut explicitly targeting the “gym bro” and high-leverage trading demographic. (Think protein shakes and 100x longs).

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The presale data shows significant early traction, with more than $4.6 million raised so far. At the current stage price of $0.000281, the project is positioning itself as a high-octane alternative to stagnant legacy coins. Features include holder-only trading competitions and a “Maxi Fund” treasury designed to sustain liquidity. And not to forget the high 66% APY rewards for stakers.

While meme tokens carry inherent volatility risks, the “never skip a pump” branding has resonated with the degens of the current cycle.

Research Maxi Doge Presale

The post BNB Price Prediction: Pump To $730 or Drop To Under $600 appeared first on Cryptonews.

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