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Ethereum Holds Between Key MVRV Levels as Breakout Nears

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Crypto Breaking News

KEY HIGHLIGHTS

  • Ethereum stalls between MVRV levels, hinting at a major breakout soon
  • ETH range tightens as bulls and bears battle for market direction
  • Key MVRV zone puts Ethereum at a decisive technical crossroads
  • Ethereum consolidation signals a potential sharp move ahead
  • ETH volatility drops while pressure builds for a breakout move

Ethereum trades near $2,450 within a narrow MVRV-defined range, signaling an imminent directional move. The asset shows limited volatility, yet price compression suggests rising pressure. Market structure reflects balance, but conditions point toward a likely breakout or breakdown.

Short-term price action remains contained, and momentum signals stay mixed across indicators. Traders assess key levels while waiting for confirmation signals. This phase reflects a transitional period rather than a stable trend.

On-chain data highlights a midpoint position between historical valuation bands. This positioning often precedes sharp moves. Therefore, market participants anticipate a shift in direction soon.

Ethereum Range Reflects Market Indecision and Accumulation

Ethereum continues to trade between MVRV support and resistance zones, showing no clear trend. The lower band attracts buying interest, while the upper band limits price expansion. This balance creates a tight consolidation range.

Price behavior indicates that both bullish and bearish forces remain active. Buyers attempt to defend support zones, yet sellers apply pressure near resistance levels. As a result, the market maintains equilibrium without clear dominance.

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This range typically signals preparation for a stronger move. Historical patterns show that such compression phases do not last long. Therefore, the current setup suggests a pending breakout scenario.

Ethereum Faces Critical Breakout or Breakdown Setup

A move above the upper MVRV band could trigger renewed bullish momentum. Such a breakout would likely attract fresh demand and strengthen price structure. Momentum indicators would need to confirm this shift.

Conversely, a drop below the lower band may lead to extended downside pressure. This scenario could trigger liquidations and weaken overall sentiment. Market structure would then shift toward a bearish continuation.

On-chain metrics show balanced positioning across participants. This balance increases the importance of confirmation signals. Volume expansion will likely validate the next directional move.

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Ethereum Market Sentiment Remains Calm but Tense

Market activity appears subdued, yet underlying tension continues to build. Reduced volatility reflects hesitation rather than stability. Participants wait for a decisive signal before taking positions.

Technical and on-chain indicators offer mixed signals at current levels. This lack of alignment contributes to uncertainty in short-term direction. However, it also increases the probability of a strong move once clarity emerges.

The current environment reflects a calm phase before potential volatility expansion. Such conditions often precede rapid price movements. Therefore, the market may shift quickly once a trigger occurs.

Ethereum Highlights Shift Toward Data-Driven Analysis

Ethereum’s current setup reflects the growing role of on-chain metrics in market analysis. MVRV now serves as a key valuation tool alongside traditional indicators. This shift improves transparency in market behavior.

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Institutional participation continues to influence data-driven strategies. Market participants increasingly rely on blockchain insights for decision-making. This trend reshapes how assets like Ethereum are evaluated.

Technical analysis now integrates with on-chain data to form hybrid strategies. This approach provides a broader view of price action and positioning. As a result, market interpretation becomes more precise and structured.

Ethereum Risks Persist Despite Clear Technical Setup

Despite defined levels, risks remain within the current structure. False breakouts may occur in low-liquidity conditions. Such moves can mislead short-term positioning.

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Bitcoin’s influence continues to affect Ethereum’s direction. Broader market sentiment may shift due to macroeconomic developments. These external factors add uncertainty to the setup.

Momentum failure could also lead to sharp reversals. Therefore, confirmation remains critical before any directional bias. The market requires strong volume support for sustained movement.

Ethereum Prepares for a Decisive Market Move

Ethereum remains positioned at a critical inflection point between key MVRV levels. This phase reflects preparation rather than trend continuation. Market structure suggests that a resolution is approaching.

Traders now focus on breakout confirmation and volume signals. Changes in on-chain activity will provide further direction. These indicators will likely define the next phase of price action.

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This consolidation phase may appear quiet, yet it carries significant implications. The next move could shape Ethereum’s medium-term trajectory. It may also influence broader cryptocurrency market trends.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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OpenAI Seeks 5GW Fusion Power Deal With Helion Energy

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

TLDR

  • OpenAI is in advanced talks to purchase electricity from Helion Energy under a long-term supply framework.
  • The proposed agreement would grant OpenAI 12.5% of Helion’s projected power output.
  • The allocation could reach 5 gigawatts by 2030 and expand to 50 gigawatts by 2035.
  • Helion raised $425 million in January 2025, bringing its valuation to $5.425 billion post-money.
  • Sam Altman stepped down as Helion’s board chair and recused himself from the OpenAI discussions.

OpenAI is negotiating a large electricity purchase from Helion Energy to secure a long-term power supply. The proposed framework would allocate 12.5% of Helion’s projected output to OpenAI. The talks reflect a direct move toward energy procurement as computing demand accelerates.

OpenAI and Helion outline multi-gigawatt power framework

OpenAI is in advanced discussions to purchase electricity from Helion Energy, according to Axios. The proposed structure would grant OpenAI 12.5% of Helion’s future output. That share would equal 5 gigawatts by 2030 under current projections.

Axios reported that the allocation could increase to 50 gigawatts by 2035. A 5 gigawatt commitment would rank among the largest for a single customer. Meanwhile, 50 gigawatts would align with infrastructure planning at a national scale.

Sources told Axios that both parties continue to negotiate key terms. The agreement remains conditional, and several issues remain unresolved. These issues include the location of future power production sites.

Sam Altman previously invested heavily in Helion Energy. However, Axios reported that Altman stepped down as Helion’s board chair. He also recused himself from OpenAI’s deal discussions to address conflict concerns.

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Helion believes it is nearing scientific breakeven in fusion development. Breakeven marks the point where fusion generates more energy than it consumes. Yet no private fusion company has achieved that milestone to date.

Funding history and prior fusion agreements shape talks

Helion Energy raised $425 million in a Series F round in January 2025. The funding valued the company at $5.425 billion post-money. Total funding has now surpassed $1 billion.

SoftBank Vision Fund 2, Mithril Capital, and Good Ventures Foundation backed the round. Sam Altman previously led Helion’s $500 million Series E round in 2021. These investments positioned Helion among the most capitalized private fusion firms.

In 2023, Helion signed the world’s first fusion power purchase agreement with Microsoft. The agreement targets delivery of at least 50 megawatts by 2028. In July 2025, Helion secured land and began building its first fusion plant.

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Google has pursued a separate path through Commonwealth Fusion Systems. In June 2025, Google agreed to purchase 200 megawatts from CFS’s ARC plant in Virginia. Both companies described the transaction as a major fusion milestone.

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Foundation targets institutions with new privacy framework

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Foundation targets institutions with new privacy framework

The Solana Foundation is making a new pitch to large institutions: privacy as a customizable feature, not a trade-off.

In a report released on Monday by the foundation, Privacy on Solana: A Full-Spectrum Approach for the Modern Enterprise,” the organization argued that the next phase of crypto adoption will depend less on transparency alone and more on giving companies control over what they reveal — and to whom.

The framing marks a shift from crypto’s early ethos. Public blockchains have traditionally emphasized openness, where transactions are visible and traceable, even if users are represented only by wallet addresses. The report acknowledged that this “pseudonymity” model, while foundational, falls short for many real-world use cases. Financial institutions, for example, may need to prove transactions occurred without exposing counterparties, while companies processing payroll must avoid broadcasting employee salaries.

Underlying the pitch is a technical claim: that Solana’s speed makes advanced privacy techniques practical. The team argued that the network’s high throughput and low latency allow these methods to run at near-web speeds, opening the door to use cases such as encrypted order books or private credit risk calculations.

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But rather than offering a single solution for privacy, the foundation presented privacy as a spectrum composed of four distinct modes: pseudonymity, confidentiality, anonymity and fully private systems.

At the base level, pseudonymity keeps identities obscured behind wallet addresses while leaving transaction data visible. Moving along the spectrum, confidentiality allows participants to be known while encrypting sensitive information like balances and transfer amounts.

Anonymity flips that dynamic, hiding the identities of participants while allowing transaction data to remain visible. At the far end are fully private systems, where both identities and transaction data are shielded through techniques like zero-knowledge proofs and multiparty computation.

The message is that no single privacy model fits all. “For enterprises, privacy is a spectrum, not a switch,” the report said.

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What Solana is trying to do is bring all of these privacy options into one system. Instead of choosing just one approach, companies can mix and match tools — like hiding transaction amounts, proving something is valid without revealing details, or controlling who can access certain data — depending on what they need.

In practice, that could mean executing trades without revealing order size, sharing risk data across banks without exposing individual balance sheets, or allowing users to prove compliance without disclosing personal information.

The report leans heavily on the idea that privacy and regulation can coexist. The team pointed to mechanisms like “auditor keys,” which enable designated parties to decrypt transactions when required. Other systems would allow wallets to demonstrate compliance status without revealing identity. These features are framed as a response to growing regulatory scrutiny, particularly around anti-money laundering rules and financial surveillance.

“Privacy is a market requirement,” the report said. “Customers expect it and applications require it. On Solana, you choose your privacy level, from encrypted balances to zero-knowledge anonymity to multiparty confidential computing. Each level maps to a compliance path, and each is composable with the broader ecosystem.”

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Read more: Solana Foundation’s Liu: Focus on finance, not gaming ‘misadventures’

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Buying the dip? Strategy prefers the top of the range

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Buying the dip? Strategy prefers the top of the range

Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) founder Michael Saylor purchased 1,031 bitcoin (BTC) last week at an average price of $74,326.

Saylor’s buy was in the 80th percentile of the available range and BTC traded between $67,354 and $76,013 during that period. 

It wasn’t a fluke.

Year-to-date across his 12-weekly SEC Form 8-K disclosures totaling 89,599 BTC purchases for $7.25 billion this year, Strategy has consistently bought in the top half of each week’s trading range.

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This is according to our analysis of the company’s own SEC filings and corresponding BTC market data.

Strategy’s 2026 purchases of BTC landed above the midpoint of each purchase period’s trading range 80% of the time.

Saylor buys BTC near the top

The pattern holds even when weighting for size. Indeed, Strategy’s two largest purchases of the year, 22,337 BTC in the week ending March 15 and 22,305 BTC in the week ending January 19, both cleared above the midpoint of each week’s range.

The January purchase, disclosed on January 20, cost $95,284 per coin while BTC traded between $90,016 and $97,939 that week.

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That placed Strategy at the 66th percentile of the range on its $2.1 billion purchase.

In early February, the firm bought 1,142 BTC at $78,815 during a week when BTC ranged from $59,930 to $79,301. Embarrassingly, that’s the 97th percentile or nearly the worst prices Strategy could have paid.

BTC spent most of that week at much lower prices, but Saylor paid near the ceiling.

Only three of the 12 weekly purchases landed below the midpoint of the range. Worse, those three combined for just 16,705 BTC, or 18.6% of total volume purchased year to date.

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‘I’m going to be buying the top forever’

Saylor has acknowledged his approach openly. “I’m going to be buying the top forever,” he posted on X.

Of course, that statement is supposed to reference the slow and long-term price appreciation of BTC, not the literal reality that Saylor is buying near the top of BTC trading ranges.

The numbers confirm it. Strategy’s volume-weighted average purchase price for 2026 is $80,929. BTC currently trades near $70,000, leaving the company’s entire 2026 buying program roughly $1 billion underwater.

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The company now holds 762,099 BTC acquired for a blended average of $75,694. At today’s prices, that treasury has an unrealized loss of over $4 billion.

The company’s MSTR common stock, which opened 2026 at $154.59, opened for trading this morning at $138.92, a 10% year-to-date decline.

Each Monday, Saylor discloses the prior week’s purchases via an 8-K filing. The day prior, on Sundays, he usually hints at the purchase by posting some sort of vague yet eminently obvious reference to “orange dots” on his SaylorTracker.

Protos previously noted a similar pattern in April 2025 when Strategy paid well into the top third of the weekly range while BTC spent most of the week near its lows.

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Read more: We calculated the present value of STRC — it’s bad for MSTR

To be fair, buying above the midpoint doesn’t automatically mean poor execution. No one knows the best price in advance.

Over the counter desks also handle large blocks at negotiated prices, and Strategy’s large size limits its ability to cherry-pick intraday lows. Strategy also seems to often buy early in the week, and for whatever reason, BTC has traded higher during early weekdays in 2026 than later weekdays.

Still, the consistency of the pattern across 12 consecutive weeks and nearly 90,000 BTC is difficult to dismiss.

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Strategy spent $5.8 billion, or 80% of its 2026 outlay, at prices in the upper half of each week’s range.

Saylor, for his part, keeps posting orange dots on Sundays and expensive, top-of-range BTC buys on Monday.

Got a tip? Send us an email securely via Protos Leaks. For more informed news, follow us on X, Bluesky, and Google News, or subscribe to our YouTube channel.

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Prediction market boom spurs new VC fund backed by Polymarket, Kalshi CEOs

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Prediction market Kalshi raises $1 billion at double its December valuation: Bloomberg

A new venture capital firm focused on prediction markets is launching with backing from Polymarket founder and CEO Shayne Coplan and Kalshi co-founder and CEO Tarek Mansour, Bloomberg reported.

The firm, called 5c(c) Capital (named after a section of the Commodity Exchange Act that governs prediction markets) may be the first venture fund built specifically to invest in companies shaped by that regulatory and market structure.

“We want to capitalize on the second-, third-, and fourth-order effects of what we built ourselves,” the founders wrote in a document viewed by Bloomberg.

The launch comes as prediction markets shift from a niche corner of finance into a more visible part of how people track events. Since the U.S. presidential election, trading volumes have climbed and new users have entered the space. Platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi now host contracts tied to politics, economic data and cultural events, turning public opinion into tradable signals. Polymarket’s trades run on the blockchain. Many crypto-native companies, including Coinbase (COIN) and Kraken, as well as Robinhood (HOOD), have also entered the space in recent months.

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That growth has created new business openings beyond the platforms themselves. Startups are beginning to build data tools, liquidity services and compliance systems that support these markets.

5c(c) Capital plans to raise up to $35 million and invest in about 20 portfolio companies over the next two years, according to the document. The strategy centers on early-stage bets tied to infrastructure and services around prediction markets rather than the exchanges alone.

Early backing includes more than twenty investors, among them a portfolio manager at Millennium Management, several crypto-focused venture firms and founders of other prediction market platforms such as PredictIt.

Polymarket declined to comment. Kalshi did not respond in time for publication.

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SIREN Crypto Risks ‘Structural Correction’ After 150% Surge to All-Time High

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SIREN Crypto Risks ‘Structural Correction’ After 150% Surge to All-Time High

Siren crypto (SIREN) just ripped 156% to a new all-time high of $3 driven by the exploding AI Agents narrative. But the rally is showing immediate signs of exhaustion.

A massive bearish divergence on the Money Flow Index (MFI) suggests the top is in, and a $22 million liquidation event has left leverage traders exposed to a sharp reversal.

The token outperformed Bitcoin by over 80% in the last 24 hours. Yet, the on-chain data presents a clear warning: volume is thinning on the way up. The breakdown is confirmed until price proves otherwise.

Key Takeaways
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  • Rally: SIREN hit an ATH of $3.00 after a 156% daily surge.
  • Signal: MFI spiked to 82.96, a level that has triggered three prior corrections.
  • Support: Bulls must hold the $2.07 level to prevent a drop to $1.50.

SIREN Price Analysis: Can SIREN Hold $2.07 Support After the ATH Breakout?

The chart structure is screaming caution despite the parabolic move. The Money Flow Index (MFI) is currently pegged at 82.96. Historically, this is the kill zone for SIREN rallies. Vertical lines on the daily chart mark February 7, February 27, and March 15—every time the MFI breached the 80 threshold, price collapsed shortly after.

The $3.00 high triggered a sharp rejection, validating the bearish thesis. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) printed a lower high of 0.14 while price made a higher high. This implies a (Price Correction) is imminent, as capital is leaving even as price pushes up.

Source: SIRENUSD / TradingView

Structure is fragile here. Traders are watching the $2.07 level closely. Lose that, and the 38.2% retracement level comes into play quickly.

A breakdown below $2.00 opens the path to $1.50. This aligns with risks seen elsewhere, such as recent whale shorting activity on Bitcoin, which often precedes altcoin weakness. The only path higher requires a daily close above $2.60 to invalidate the divergence. Until then, the bears are in control.

Discover: The best new crypto in the world

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XRP hits a snag after Monday’s relief rally, active addresses down 40%

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xrp price outlook
xrp price outlook
  • Active XRP addresses dropped over 40% in four days.
  • XRP price remains stuck between a tight trading range.
  • Retail holders have grown, but overall network activity is slowing.

XRP has entered a tight and uncertain phase after a brief rally following an announcement by US President Donald Trump that the United States will pause strikes on energy and power installations in Iran after the expiry of the 48-hour ultimatum on opening the Strait of Hormuz.

The momentum that initially lifted prices following Trump’s announcement now appears to be fading as the market struggles to find direction.

At the time of writing, XRP is trading around $1.43.

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The price has moved within a narrow range between $1.36 and $1.46, reflecting hesitation among traders after a week where XRP slipped by about 5%, extending its broader downward trend over the past year.

While the recent rally gave traders hope, the follow-through has been weak.

XRP Ledger activity drops sharply

One of the most notable developments is the sharp decline in XRP Ledger (XRPL) network activity.

Notably, XRP’s active addresses have fallen by more than 40% within just a few days, according to the data obtained from CryptoQuant.

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XRP Ledger Active Addresses
Source: CryptoQuant

This drop signals a slowdown in user engagement, which often reflects reduced demand in the short term.

Fewer active participants usually translate to less transaction volume and weaker momentum.

This decline contrasts with the earlier optimism that surrounded XRP’s growing number of wallet holders.

While more people may be holding XRP, fewer are actively using it.

This gap between ownership and activity suggests that investors are choosing to wait rather than act.

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Such behaviour is common during uncertain market conditions.

Retail growth continues despite the slowdown

Even as activity drops, the number of smaller XRP holders continues to grow steadily.

This trend points to increasing retail interest in the asset.

A rising base of small holders often signals long-term confidence, even if short-term sentiment is mixed.

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It also suggests that XRP is becoming more widely distributed rather than concentrated in a few large hands.

However, growing ownership alone does not guarantee price growth.

Without strong network activity to support it, price movements can remain limited.

This is the situation XRP appears to be facing now.

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XRP price outlook

XRP’s current price movements reflect a market caught between opposing forces.

On one hand, there is optimism driven by broader adoption and past rally attempts.

On the other hand, there is clear evidence of weakening participation and fading momentum.

The asset remains well below its previous peak, showing that recovery is still incomplete.

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Short-term price action suggests consolidation rather than a decisive move in either direction, with the immediate support level at near $1.33 holding for now.

XRP price chart
Source: TradingView

At the same time, resistance around $1.54 to $1.60 continues to limit upward movement, creating a narrow trading range that traders are watching closely.

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SEC Sends Proposed Crypto Interpretation to White House for Review

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Cryptocurrencies, Law, SEC, White House

The financial regulator’s plan to reinterpret how federal securities laws apply to crypto assets is ”pending review” by the White House’s Office of Management and Budget.

The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has forwarded its proposal to have most crypto assets not treated as securities under federal law to the White House’s Office of Management and Budget.

According to information available through the US General Services Administration, on Friday the SEC sent two proposed rules to the White House for review, including its interpretative notice from last week regarding which digital assets the agency could consider a security under federal law.

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As of Monday, government records showed the proposal as “pending review” by the White House, potentially changing how the SEC handles regulation and enforcement of digital assets.

Cryptocurrencies, Law, SEC, White House
Source: Reginfo.gov

In a notice issued by the SEC last week, Chair Paul Atkins said that the agency would not consider four types of digital assets as securities under its purview: digital commodities, digital tools, digital collectibles — including non-fungible tokens — and stablecoins. The interpretation said that it would provide the agency with a “coherent token taxonomy” for the four types of assets and address how a “non-security crypto asset” may or may not be considered an investment contract.

The SEC rule, if finalized, would provide a bridge to crypto regulation until Congress were to pass a market structure bill to clarify comprehensive regulations of digital assets. The interpretation of federal securities laws followed the signing of a memorandum of understanding with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) — the other federal financial regulator expected to regulate digital assets under the proposed market structure bill — earlier this month.

Related: CFTC staff clarify expectations on using crypto as collateral

White House reportedly reached “agreement in principle” on crypto bill

Politico reported on Friday that representatives from the White House and Congressional lawmakers reached a deal on stablecoin yield that could advance the market structure bill in the Senate Banking Committee. The panel indefinitely postponed its markup of the bill, called the CLARITY Act, in January following Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong saying the exchange could not support the legislation as written.

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As of Monday, the banking committee had not publicly announced a new date for the bill’s markup. Senate Majority Leader John Thune reportedly said in March that the chamber intended to prioritize a vote on the SAVE America Act — legislation that would require voters to provide proof of US citizenship in person to register — before bills with bipartisan support, such as CLARITY.

Magazine: Are DeFi devs liable for the illegal activity of others on their platforms?