Research and brokerage firm Bernstein, which manages approximately $867 billion in assets, declared on March 24 that Bitcoin’s (BTC) price bottom is likely in and maintained its end-of-2026 price target of $150,000 — implying more than a 100% gain from current levels — as the firm’s analysts argued the ongoing selloff is categorically different from every bear market Bitcoin has previously endured.​

Lead analyst Gautam Chhugani described the current pullback as “the weakest Bitcoin bear case in its history,” pointing to what the firm sees as a temporary crisis of investor confidence rather than any deterioration in Bitcoin’s underlying fundamentals. With BTC trading around $70,668 at time of writing — down roughly 40% from its peak — Bernstein’s conviction remains intact.

A Different Kind of Drawdown

The framing is a deliberate break from how past bear markets have been characterized. Previous Bitcoin cycles saw far more violent collapses: the 2013 peak near $1,150 was followed by an 84% drawdown, the 2017 high of $20,000 preceded a 77% decline, and the 2021 peak near $69,000 gave way to a roughly 70% correction. By comparison, the current drawdown of around 40% looks restrained — and Bernstein argues it is, structurally speaking, far less dangerous.​

The key differentiators, according to the firm, are the maturation of institutional flows and a more favorable policy environment. Spot Bitcoin ETF adoption continues to expand, corporate treasury participation is accelerating, and the U.S. political backdrop has shifted in a direction broadly viewed as supportive of digital assets. None of the systemic failures that defined 2022 — collapsed exchanges, insolvent lenders, contagion — are present in the current cycle.

Strategy and On-Chain Signals

Strategy’s continued accumulation at depressed prices is cited as a key supporting data point. The company now holds approximately 3.6% of Bitcoin’s total circulating supply, valued at around $53.5 billion, and has raised $7.3 billion in 2026 specifically to expand its Bitcoin treasury. Bernstein views Strategy as a high-beta vehicle with a structurally resilient balance sheet, noting that only an extreme scenario — BTC falling to $8,000 and remaining there for five years — would require any balance sheet restructuring.​

On-chain data adds further context. Analyst Ali Charts pointed to Bitcoin approaching the 0.8 MVRV ratio band, a level situated between $56,000 and $60,000 that has historically served as a launchpad for major rallies: +963% in 2017, +261% in 2018, +1,126% in 2020, and +660% following the FTX collapse in 2022. CryptoQuant analyst Crypto Dan echoed the sentiment, arguing that reduced participation and fading retail interest are “textbook bear market” indicators — but historically, accumulation phases rather than exit points. “A bear market is not a time to give up. It is the time to prepare for the next bull cycle,” he wrote on X.​

Not everyone shares Bernstein’s confidence. VanEck CEO Jan VanEck told CNBC in early March that while a bottom may be forming, 2026 represents Bitcoin’s typical fourth-year bear cycle, consistent with historical halving patterns. Some traders argue that failure to reclaim and hold above $70,000 could open the door to a deeper leg lower, potentially retesting the $60,000 level that has emerged as the most closely watched structural support.​

Bernstein’s $150,000 target, first established when Bitcoin was trading at significantly higher levels, aligns with a broader cluster of institutional 2026 price forecasts that include $150,000 from BSTR President Katherine Dowling and $180,000 from Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse. Longer term, Bernstein maintains a target of $1 million by 2033.

Tether announced on Tuesday that it has engaged a Big Four accounting firm to conduct what the firm says is its “first full independent financial statement audit.” The issuer of USDT, the largest stablecoin by market cap with over $184 billion, did not name which specific firm would conduct the audit, and described it as potentially the largest inaugural audit in financial markets history.

The company, which reports a global user base of more than 550 million, said the engagement follows a competitive onboarding process during which multiple audit firms assessed Tether’s systems, internal controls, and financial reporting.

The move comes after years of criticism over Tether’s transparency practices. Rather than full audits, Tether has historically provided quarterly attestations from BDO Italia — a more limited form of financial review. In 2021, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) issued a $41 million fine over misleading claims that USDT was fully backed by U.S. dollars.

No timeline for completion of the audit was disclosed in today’s announcement.

As The Defiant reported in 2023, then-CTO Paolo Ardoino — now CEO — attributed the lack of a full audit in part to difficulties with auditing firms themselves.

More recently, both the EU’s MiCA framework for digital asset regulation and the U.S. stablecoin-focused GENIUS Act have included provisions calling for full reserve backing and transparent audits of stablecoin issuers, as The Defiant reported previously. In November, S&P Global downgraded USDT’s dollar-peg stability score to its lowest mark, citing growing exposure to higher-risk assets.

Tether credited the appointment of CFO Simon McWilliams in early 2025 as key to preparing the company’s internal architecture for a full audit, per today’s announcement. McWilliams said the firm was “selected through a competitive process because the organisation is already operating at Big Four audit standard.”

The announcement comes alongside Tether’s broader push into the U.S. market. Last August, the company hired Bo Hines, former executive director of the White House Crypto Council, as a strategic advisor overseeing its U.S. expansion. More recently, Tether invested $200 million in commerce platform Whop, building on the launch of its regulated U.S. stablecoin USAT, which it first unveiled in September.

This article was written with the assistance of AI workflows. All our stories are curated, edited and fact-checked by a human.

Key takeaways:

• Investors dumped gold and bonds for cash as war-driven oil spikes and inflation forced a defensive market stance.

• Rising yields and a 20% rate hike chance signal a tight outlook, leaving Bitcoin vulnerable amid soaring US debt.

Bitcoin (BTC) retested the $67,500 support level on Monday, a move that coincided with gold prices suffering their sharpest correction in over 50 years. Fears of a prolonged war in Iran and the inflationary impact of oil prices holding above $85 pushed investors to cut risk.

US Treasuries also faced a sell-off during this period, suggesting that traders aggressively built cash positions. Yields on the US 5-year Treasury jumped to 4.10%, marking a nine-month high as traders demanded better returns. With the S&P 500 hitting its lowest point in over six months on Monday, evidence suggested a broad rush to liquidity.

Cash is king amid economic uncertainty, while Bitcoin risks further downside

Investors appeared to be raising cash either to cover recent losses or to brace for further price drops across risk markets.

The ongoing war in Iran pushed oil prices past $90, creating inflationary pressure. The Wall Street Journal reported that the US planned to deploy roughly 3,000 troops to the Middle East to counter Iran’s influence over the Strait of Hormuz. Part of the decline in gold prices was likely linked to fading expectations for US monetary policy easing in the near term.

Bond market futures showed that the implied probability of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) hiking interest rates by July surged to 20.5%, up from 0% just one week prior. Investors anticipated a cooling job market as high interest rates continued to reduce corporate expansion incentives.

Tech stocks fall, inflation hurts consumers

US legislators debated an additional $200 billion in funding to support the war in Iran, according to The Washington Post. Kevin Hassett, director of the US National Economic Council, stated that $12 billion had already been spent. Lawmakers did not authorize the war, and Congress showed growing unease with the military strategy, according to AP.

Meanwhile, the US national debt soared past $39 trillion, which further pushed consumers toward a cost-of-living crisis. Fear of excessive speculative investment in the artificial intelligence sector emerged after Reuters reported that ChatGPT maker OpenAI offered private-equity firms a guaranteed minimum return of 17.5% while the company remained largely unprofitable.

Some of the world’s largest tech companies faced losses of 10% or more over the past six weeks, including Google (GOOG US), Meta (META US), and IBM (IBM US). Thus, regardless of the sharp correction in gold prices, traders increasingly feared recession risks or a surge in inflation above the 4% fixed income returns.

Related: Bitcoin holders shift from panic to cash-buffer discipline as volatility deepens

The combination of declining stock prices and persistent inflationary pressure explained why investors aggressively sought the safety of cash positions.

Regardless of favorable Bitcoin onchain metrics, broader macroeconomic conditions remained unfavorable for sustainable bullish momentum. The decline in gold prices while investors offloaded US Treasuries served as a sign of risk aversion. The odds of a $66,000 retest remain a serious threat, at least until inflation and war expenses hold US monetary policy tight for a longer period.