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Cboe eyes binary options reboot to rival Polymarket’s prediction markets

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XRP open interest drops to lowest level since 2024

Cboe is in talks to relaunch binary options contracts for retail investors, positioning regulated alternatives to compete with crypto prediction markets like Polymarket.

Summary

  • Cboe Global Markets is in early-stage discussions with retail brokerages to relaunch all-or-nothing binary options contracts that would compete with on-chain prediction markets like Polymarket
  • The exchange aims to offer regulated, centrally cleared fixed-return contracts under SEC or CFTC oversight, focusing on financial markets rather than political or sports outcomes
  • Polymarket has achieved up to 94% accuracy in predictions while driving hundreds of millions in volume, creating a template that Cboe wants to replicate with institutional infrastructure

Cboe circles binary options reboot

Cboe Global Markets is edging back into the binary‑wager business, in what increasingly looks like a Wall Street answer to on‑chain prediction giants such as Polymarket. The exchange is “in discussions with retail brokerages to relaunch ‘all‑or‑nothing’ options contracts for individual investors that would vie with prediction markets,” the Wall Street Journal reported, citing people familiar with the matter.

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Cboe described the talks as “at an early stage” and said it is also working with market makers on “revamped binary options, sometimes called fixed‑return contracts,” that pay either a set cash amount or nothing at all.“This represents, in my view, a new entry point for many individuals looking to engage in the options market,” a Cboe executive told Yahoo Finance, adding that any launch would undergo “rigorous evaluations to ensure compliance with legal standards” under SEC or CFTC oversight.

Prediction markets set the pace

The timing is not accidental. Polymarket, which brands itself as “the world’s largest prediction market,” has seen cumulative volumes climb into the hundreds of millions of dollars across more than 10,000 markets, even as researchers warn that parts of its reported turnover may be double‑counted or inflated by wash trading. Monitoring tools such as Polymarket Monitor and research from Paradigm and Fortune highlight both the depth and distortions in these markets. Despite those caveats, independent analysis puts Polymarket’s odds around 90% accurate a month before resolution and up to 94% in the final hours before an event settles, according to studies cited by Yahoo Finance, The Defiant and Polymarket Research.

For crypto traders, these flows are tightly bound to digital‑asset pricing. High‑conviction yes‑or‑no positioning around macro data, elections and ETF approvals routinely feeds into Bitcoin futures and spot volatility, turning prediction odds into a live proxy for risk appetite. This parabolic move comes as digital assets continue to trade as the purest expression of macro risk appetite. Bitcoin (BTC) is hovering around $88,235, with a 24‑hour high near $90,476 and a low near $87,549, on roughly $32.8B in dollar volumes. Ethereum (ETH) changes hands close to $2,953, with about $23.4B in 24‑hour turnover and spot quotes clustered in the $4,500–$4,600 band on major exchanges earlier this week. Solana (SOL) trades around $192, up about 2.7% over the last 24 hours, with nearly $9.8B in volume.

Can Cboe pull flow back onshore?

By floating a regulated, centrally cleared all‑or‑nothing product that “sticks to financial markets” rather than political or sports outcomes, Cboe is effectively betting that some of that speculative energy can be redirected from on‑chain venues back to listed derivatives. If it works, the next big crypto‑linked binary trade may look less like a degenerate side bet on Polymarket and more like a highly structured ticket punched through a Chicago options screen.

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Crypto World

Maestro Debuts Bitcoin Credit Market for Institutional BTC Mining Yield

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Maestro Debuts Bitcoin Credit Market for Institutional BTC Mining Yield

Bitcoin infrastructure provider Maestro has launched a Bitcoin-denominated credit market backed by mining economics, aiming to give institutions a new way to earn yield on idle Bitcoin while expanding financing options for miners.

Maestro said Mezzamine went live with its first program in partnership with mining-as-a-service provider Sazmining. According to a Tuesday announcement shared with Cointelegraph, the program is designed to let institutional Bitcoin (BTC) holders deploy BTC into mining-backed credit facilities targeting an annual yield of 8% to 9%.

The offering is designed to connect miners seeking capital with institutional Bitcoin holders seeking BTC-denominated yield, creating an onchain credit market tied to mining expansion rather than protocol staking rewards.

“New Bitcoins are mined every 10 minutes, and with Mezzamine BTC holders can earn and share block rewards with miners,” Marvin Bertin, Maestro’s co-founder and CEO, said in the announcement.

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Related: Top Bitcoin mining stocks rise as US winter storms cut hashrate

Bitcoin-native credit market seeks to fix miner financing gap

Bitcoin mining firms often face limited financing options, typically relying on dollar-denominated debt against Bitcoin collateral or, if publicly listed, equity issuance.

Because many miners’ liabilities are denominated in dollars while revenue is earned in Bitcoin, that structure can leave operations more exposed during sharp market downturns.

Maestro said the credit facility includes bear-market protection features, including hedging tied to Bitcoin prices and mining-fleet economics, to help stabilize performance during downturns.

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The company said miners may face higher financing costs in stronger markets in exchange for a structure designed to offer greater stability during downturns.

Launch of the first Bitcoin-native credit market for mining economy. Source: Maestro

The offering is aimed at institutional investors, corporate treasuries, asset managers, family offices and registered investment advisers. Suresh Rajan, Mezzamine’s managing director, told Cointelegraph the minimum allocation is $100,000 worth of Bitcoin.

Mezzamine said the yield is derived directly from mining production. Miners borrowing through the platform use capital to buy additional ASIC hardware and expand hashrate, with part of the resulting block rewards used to service the credit facility and the remainder flowing to the miner.

According to Maestro, institutions receive yield funded entirely by the mining output, without additional token incentives or leveraged strategies.

Related: Solo Bitcoin miner bags over $200K block reward using rented hashrate

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Bitcoin-denominated loans reduce miner liquidation risks

Bitcoin miners seeking traditional financing are often required to overcollateralize two-fold, increasing liquidation risks during Bitcoin price drops. 

The new credit facility reduces that risk by denominating loans in Bitcoin and removing dollar-denominated call risks, Mezzamine’s managing director, Rajan, told Cointelegraph:

“A decline in Bitcoin’s price against the dollar does not trigger a margin call, and with Mezzamine’s hedged vehicle, the hedge actually returns profits in bear markets that can supplement mining revenue and further capitalize the program.”

“The loan performs according to mining economics, not currency markets,” he added.

Maestro told Cointelegraph it has seen more than 1,500 BTC in borrowing demand from qualified mining operators exploring alternative financing channels, including public miners and mid-sized operators.

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Sazmining describes itself as a Bitcoin mining-as-a-service provider whose operations rely on hydropower and other carbon-free energy sources.

Magazine: 6 weirdest devices people have used to mine Bitcoin and crypto