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Solana Long-Short Ratio Signals Unusual Derivatives Positioning

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Solana Long-Short Ratio Signals Unusual Derivatives Positioning

Solana (SOL) is trading at $87, still down 69% from its January 2025 peak near $295.91. The long-short ratio has skewed above 3:1 on some platforms with retail sitting 65.5% long. That is not a normal reading for an asset trading below every major moving average.

(Source – Coinalyze)

The open interest tells the real story. OI sits at roughly $2.2billion and is contracting, down, even as the long bias intensifies. Price moving up while open interest shrinks is a textbook squeeze signature. Not accumulation. Not conviction.

The math does not support a real rally here.

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SOL Derivatives Setup: Squeeze Risk or Breakout Fuel?

The long-short ratio is being misread by most traders watching it. It measures position count distribution, not capital weight. Longs and shorts are always structurally matched 1:1 in notional size on derivatives markets. A 3:1 long-short ratio means three times as many traders are positioned long, not that three times as much capital is long. That distinction is critical to understanding the actual risk here.

What makes the current setup unstable is the divergence between that bullish tilt and the absence of fresh capital. Sustained long bias with expanding open interest signals conviction. Sustained long bias with shrinking open interest signals a squeeze in progress, shorts being forced out, not bulls stepping in. The neutral funding rate of 0.0038% per 4-hour period confirms it: this is short covering, not new long entries.

On February 28, the largest single liquidation event pushed SOL to a 52-week low of $77.91, per exchange data. Short liquidations on March 5 totaled $2.58M, 75.6% of total liquidations, against just $0.83M in long liquidations. That 3:1 liquidation skew mirrors the ratio skew almost exactly. The squeeze mechanics are already running.

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(Source – SOLUSD, TradingView)

Key technical levels define the binary. The 200-day moving average sits near $150 , structurally far above the current price and representing the ceiling of any meaningful recovery. Near-term, the Changelly model places April channel resistance at $102.51, with $100.37 as the lower bound of that zone. Below current price, the $77.91 February low is the last structural floor before open air.

The bull scenario: price clears $90–$92 with expanding open interest, funding rates tick positive, and the long bias becomes self-fulfilling as momentum traders pile in. SOL’s high-beta profile means a confirmed breakout accelerates fast, similar derivatives setups in other L1s have produced 20–30% moves within days once squeeze momentum flips to genuine accumulation.

The bear scenario: price stalls at resistance, overleveraged longs begin unwinding, and the same reflexivity that would accelerate upside now cascades downside. The Fear & Greed Index at 9, Extreme Fear, alongside a 65.5% long reading, puts the current positioning in the warning zone for pullbacks, as analysts describe it. A breach of $80 triggers the next liquidation cluster.

The long-short ratio is a pressure gauge. Right now it is elevated. That pressure resolves through continuation or liquidation, and without open interest expansion, the liquidation path carries a higher probability. Regulatory developments in crypto derivatives oversight also remain a macro overhang for leveraged positioning across the sector.

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Bitcoin Hyper Targets Early Mover Upside as Solana Tests Key Levels

While Solana navigates an unstable derivatives setup with no structural confirmation of reversal, smart money is rotating into Bitcoin Hyper, a Bitcoin-native L2 infrastructure project designed to bring EVM-compatible execution speed to BTC liquidity without wrapped token exposure.

The project differentiates itself through sub-second finality on a Bitcoin-settled chain, targeting the DeFi and perpetuals market currently dominated by Solana and Ethereum L2s. Its presale has raised $5.9M to date, with the current token price at $0.0115 and staking APY locked at 108% for early participants.

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The presale window closes before the public DEX listing, which historically represents the highest-risk, highest-return entry point for infrastructure plays. Year-end SOL forecasts ranging from $250–$300 reflect broader L1 recovery expectations — but early-stage infrastructure projects with fixed presale pricing offer asymmetric upside independent of SOL’s near-term squeeze resolution.

Join the Bitcoin Hyper Presale Now

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry significant risk, including total loss of capital. Always conduct your own research before making any financial decisions.

The post Solana Long-Short Ratio Signals Unusual Derivatives Positioning appeared first on Cryptonews.

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UK becomes first country to sanction crypto marketplace Xinbi over $19.9B fraud empire

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UK becomes first country to sanction crypto marketplace Xinbi over $19.9B fraud empire

The UK has sanctioned crypto marketplace Xinbi and Cambodia’s #8 Park scam compound over a $19.9b fraud and trafficking network, freezing London assets ahead of June’s Illicit Finance Summit.

Summary

  • The UK sanctioned Xinbi — the first country to do so — after Chainalysis data showed it processed over $19.9 billion in illicit transactions between 2021 and 2025.
  • Sanctions also target the operator of Cambodia’s “#8 Park” scam compound, believed to house up to 20,000 trafficked workers, along with multiple frozen London properties.
  • The action precedes the UK’s Illicit Finance Summit in June, where officials plan to push for greater international coordination against crypto-enabled scam networks.

The UK government on March 26 sanctioned Xinbi, a Chinese-language cryptocurrency marketplace, making it the first country in the world to take such action against the platform. The measures, jointly announced by the Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office and the Home Office, target what officials described as a key financial pillar of large-scale scam and human trafficking operations across Southeast Asia.

According to Chainalysis, Xinbi processed more than $19.9 billion in transactions between 2021 and 2025. The platform facilitated money laundering, unlicensed over-the-counter crypto trading, and the sale of stolen personal data, while also supplying communications infrastructure — including satellite internet equipment — used to target fraud victims. Crypto.news previously reported on Xinbi’s connection to the broader Telegram-based criminal marketplace ecosystem, where it operated alongside Haowang Guarantee, the largest darknet market ever recorded.

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The sanctions extend beyond Xinbi itself to Legend Innovation Co., the operator of Cambodia’s “#8 Park” compound — a scam center believed to hold up to 20,000 trafficked workers — and its director Eang Soklim. The designated individuals are also linked to the Prince Group’s financial network, which the UK and U.S. sanctioned last year in an action that triggered asset freezes and seizures exceeding £1 billion ($1.3 billion).

London properties frozen, infrastructure dismantled

Several London properties will be frozen under the new measures, adding to previously seized UK assets. Those earlier seizures included a £100 million ($133 million) office building, two multi-million-pound mansions, and a helicopter. Officials say the latest action will immediately restrict access to financial channels used by the network.

“Our sanctions today send a clear message: We will not allow British people to become victims of these dreadful scams or tolerate the awful human rights abuses perpetrated in these scam centres,” said Stephen Doughty MP, the UK’s Minister of State for Europe, North America and Overseas Territories, in the official government announcement.

The UK said its goal is to sever Xinbi from the legitimate crypto ecosystem entirely — cutting off its ability to process transactions and eroding the financial backbone that enables scam networks to recruit, sustain, and conceal their operations.

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Broader crackdown on crypto-enabled trafficking

The action comes amid rising global alarm about crypto’s role in financing human trafficking and forced labor. A February 2026 Chainalysis report found that crypto flows to suspected trafficking services surged 85% in 2025, with stablecoin-heavy, Telegram-linked networks operating across Southeast Asia at increasing scale. Just six days before the Xinbi sanctions, the FBI and Thai police froze $580 million in crypto linked to organized scam gangs targeting Americans.

The UK’s move is part of what officials describe as a broader strategy targeting not just individual perpetrators but the infrastructure that underpins global fraud. Authorities said the Xinbi sanctions will feed into the UK’s Illicit Finance Summit in June, where they plan to accelerate international coordination to counter the laundering and movement of illicit funds across borders.

As reported by The Block, the sanctions took immediate effect on March 26.

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Bitcoin Profitability Near 50% Mirrors Previous Market Bottoms

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Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Analysis, Adoption, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Price Analysis, Market Analysis, Bitcoin ETF, ETF

The total Bitcoin (BTC) supply in profit stands at 60.6% on Thursday, continuing to move within a range historically associated with market cycle resets. The metric previously dropped to 50.8% on Feb. 5, its lowest level since January 2, 2023, leaving a large share of holders at breakeven or at a loss.

Similar conditions in the past cycles have preceded strong upside moves. In January 2023, BTC traded at $16,682 when profitability levels were comparable at 51%, before rallying 655% to $126,000 in 2025.

A similar setup occurred in March 2020, when the total supply in profit fell below 50% as BTC traded at $6,500, ahead of a move to $69,000 in 2021.

Bitcoin profitability returns to prior market cycle base levels

Over the past five years, the 50–60% profitability range has repeatedly marked periods where a large portion of holders sat near the BTC cost basis. That compresses unrealized gains across the network and reduces the incentive to sell into weakness.

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Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Analysis, Adoption, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Price Analysis, Market Analysis, Bitcoin ETF, ETF
Bitcoin Supply in Profit (%). Source: CryptoQuant

It is important to note that the metric does not pinpoint a price bottom. It outlines a zone where long-term accumulation has led to high returns while the downside sell pressure has eased.

In past cycles, Bitcoin price bottoms were formed when the long-term holder net unrealized profit/loss (LTH-NUPL) turned negative, as seen during the 2015, 2018, and 2022 bear markets. This phase marked a period where the long-term investors were holding at a loss.

However, the current LTH-NUPL reading is near 0.40, which means that the long-term holders are still comfortably in profit, even as the overall supply profitability has dropped near market cycle lows.

Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Analysis, Adoption, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Price Analysis, Market Analysis, Bitcoin ETF, ETF
Bitcoin LTH-NUPL data. Source: CryptoQuant

This gap highlights a shift in the market environment. A growing share of Bitcoin supply is now held by corporate entities and spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which collectively control close to 15.8% of the circulating supply, i.e., 3,319,677 BTC.

These participants typically operate with a longer holding period and lower sensitivity to short-term price swings.

As a result, the profitability compression across the BTC market does not translate into the same level of forced selling from long-term holders seen in previous cycles in 2015, 2018, and 2022.

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This change helps explain why the total supply in profit may revisit historical accumulation zones while the long-term holder profitability stays elevated.

Related: Bitcoin in ‘later stages’ of bear market: Watch these BTC price levels

BTC exchange flows align with valuation models

The short-term holder BTC flows to Binance fell to 25,000 BTC on March 25. Crypto analyst Darkfost said it is a new market low, down from roughly 100,000 BTC during the early February sell-off. This decline shows a clear reduction in reactive selling from the newer market participants.

Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Analysis, Adoption, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Price Analysis, Market Analysis, Bitcoin ETF, ETF
Bitcoin STH inflows on Binance. Source: CryptoQuant

Meanwhile, crypto analyst GugaOnChain noted that the valuation models can help identify where the deeper market stress may emerge for BTC. Metrics such as market-value to realized-value (MVRV) below 1, NUPL under -0.2, and a Puell Multiple near 0.35 have historically appeared during periods of heavy retail pressure and undervalued conditions.

While these indicators do not predict the exact market bottoms, they highlight zones where downside risk has historically been limited relative to long-term upside, offering a clearer view of overall market positioning.

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Related: Bitcoin dips 3% as analysis says $70K BTC price ‘not obviously bearish’