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50% Supply-in-Profit Drop Preceded 655% Rally

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Crypto Breaking News

Bitcoin’s on-chain picture remains centered on profitability dynamics, with the total supply in profit holding near a historically significant zone. As of Thursday, CryptoQuant data show about 60.6% of BTC supply in profit, placing the market in a band (roughly 50% to 60%) that has repeatedly framed cycles and potential accumulation phases. The metric briefly dipped to 50.8% on Feb. 5—the lowest since Jan. 2, 2023—leaving a sizable portion of holders at or near breakeven and at a potential loss.

Historical echoes are often cited by traders when profitability enters this range. In January 2023, BTC traded around $16,682 with profitability near 51%, just before a pronounced rally that CryptoQuant’s analysis notes as mirroring a pattern later seen in a multi-hundred percent upmove. A separate moment in March 2020 saw the total supply in profit slip below 50% as BTC hovered near $6,500, ahead of a bull run that pushed prices toward $69,000 in 2021. While past patterns can offer context, they do not guarantee future outcomes; profitability alone does not pinpoint price bottoms, but it does sketch zones where long-term accrual has been strong and selling pressure historically eased.

Key takeaways

  • Bitcoin’s supply in profit stands around 60.6%, a level within the 50–60% zone historically linked to market-cycle resets and renewed accumulation.
  • Long-term holder profitability remains meaningful: the long-term holder net unrealized profit/loss (LTH-NUPL) sits near 0.40, suggesting holders remain in profit even as overall profitability tightens.
  • Institutional and corporate participation has grown, with entities holding roughly 15.8% of circulating BTC (about 3,319,677 BTC), potentially dampening short-term price sensitivity to swings.
  • Short-term holder (STH) inflows to Binance have fallen to about 25,000 BTC on March 25, indicating less reactive selling from newer market participants.
  • Valuation-based on-chain signals (MVRV, NUPL, Puell) are flashing zones associated with stress for retail demand but not definitive bottoms, highlighting a balance of risk and upside potential ahead.

Profitability baselines and market structure

The 50–60% profitability corridor has been a recurring feature across several cycles. When a large share of supply sits in profit, unrealized gains on the network compress, which can reduce the incentive for holders to sell into weakness. In this framework, the market’s current 60.6% profitability suggests a still-robust share of the supply that could weather minor downturns without triggering acute downside selling pressure. Yet the same metric also shows that a meaningful number of investors remain in the red or near break-even, underscoring the persistence of volatility and the potential for renewed demand when risk appetite shifts.

Crucially, the composition of who owns BTC is shifting. The rise of corporate entities and exchange-traded products (ETFs) as significant holders means a portion of the market is increasingly dominated by entities with longer time horizons and lower sensitivity to short-term price swings. In aggregate, these participants are estimated to control around 15.8% of the circulating supply, or roughly 3.32 million BTC. This dynamic tends to flatten peak-forcing selloffs that can accompany prolonged drawdowns, contributing to a market where profitability compression does not necessarily translate into a wave of distressed selling from veteran investors alike.

On-chain signals and market stress zones

Beyond aggregate profitability, on-chain flow metrics add nuance to the picture. Short-term holder activity has shown a meaningful contraction in selling pressure on BTC. CryptoQuant data indicate STH inflows to Binance dropped to near 25,000 BTC on March 25, a low not seen during the February sell-off, according to comments from market analysts. Such a drop points to a cooling in reactive selling from newer market participants and a potential for steadier price action if selling pressure remains subdued.

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Meanwhile, traditional valuation models that analysts watch—market-value to realized-value (MVRV), NUPL, and Puell Multiple—continue to illuminate where stress is most likely to surface. Analysts have observed that when MVRV falls below 1, NUPL slips under -0.2, or Puell Multiple approaches 0.35, those periods have historically coincided with heightened retail stress or undervalued conditions. While these indicators do not guarantee a local bottom, they map out zones where downside risk has often been bounded by prior upside potential, offering traders a probabilistic framework for assessing risk-reward dynamics in the near term.

Taken together, the current on-chain configuration suggests a market moving away from the kind of acute, long-term holder distress that punctuated bear markets in 2015, 2018, and 2022. The divergence between a modestly higher supply-in-profit reading and steady LTH-NUPL points to a market that could see renewed accumulation without triggering uniform, forceful capitulation among long-term investors. In other words, the landscape is shifting toward an ownership mix that may support more measured corrections rather than sharp, cyclical lows.

Related: Bitcoin in ‘later stages’ of bear market: Watch these BTC price levels

What readers should watch next

For traders and investors, the key questions revolve around whether the current on-chain balance can sustain a move higher without retesting lows. The persistence of a sizable profit pool coupled with a growing share of BTC held by institutions could support a gradual re-accumulation narrative, even if price swings remain volatile. Markets will likely respond to macro developments, policy signals, and shifts in risk appetite as much as to on-chain metrics.

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Next steps to monitor include: the trajectory of MVRV, NUPL, and Puell readings as BTC moves through key price zones; any shifts in the distribution of BTC held by corporates and ETFs; and observed changes in STH and overall exchange flows that could presage larger moves in supply held by retail participants. While on-chain data cannot predict exact bottoms, it continues to offer a granular view of where investors are positioned and how that positioning might shape the path of least resistance for Bitcoin in the months ahead.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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SIREN price whipsaws after 340% weekly surge and whale red flags

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Polygon-incubated Katana snaps up IDEX to launch native perps platform

SIREN is trading near $2.35 after a 340% weekly spike to a $1.8b valuation, with one wallet cluster holding 88% of supply and nearly $1b in unrealized profit.

SIREN, a BNB Chain meme coin built around high‑volatility speculation, is changing hands near $2.35 today after a week in which its price jumped from below $0.90 to above $3.00 before retracing. Historical data from CoinLore shows SIREN closing at $0.9422 on March 21, 2026, then $2.30 on March 22, and $2.35 on March 23, marking a gain of roughly 149% in 48 hours and over 340% across the week. Over that same March 22–23 window, reported daily trading volume ranged between about $53.7 million and $195 million, locking SIREN into the top tier of actively traded meme assets on BNB Chain.​

MEXC’s market wrap notes that SIREN’s fully diluted valuation pushed past $1.8 billion at the height of the rally, driven by aggressive spot buying and options‑style speculation. Yet Arkham and Dune Analytics data cited in that report highlight a single wallet cluster holding around 644 million SIREN tokens, or roughly 88% of circulating supply, with more than $950 million in unrealized profit at peak prices. A separate technical summary from CoinCodex places SIREN’s daily relative strength index around 64.78, with multiple simple and exponential moving averages still flashing “buy,” underscoring how momentum indicators remain elevated despite the recent pullback.

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Headline‑driven price action has also pulled SIREN into broader meme‑coin narratives. BeInCrypto recently listed Siren among three meme tokens to watch into the final week of March 2026, citing its outsized weekly move compared to other BNB Chain names. In that context, SIREN’s profile now sits alongside other speculative meme assets covered by outlets like crypto.news, which has tracked similar surges in tokens such as PEPE and BONK during prior market risk‑on phases.

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Is Bitcoin’s Governance Too Slow To Fend off Quantum Risks?

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Is Bitcoin’s Governance Too Slow To Fend off Quantum Risks?

The race to make blockchains quantum-resistant is shaping into a test of governance, and decentralized networks may be at a disadvantage.

Quantum upgrades don’t stop at protocol-level changes. For major networks, they require wallet-level migration across millions of users, making coordination the bottleneck.

“The hard part is not changing the node itself, it’s having the wallets do the same,” said Yoon Auh, founder of BOLT Technologies, adding that each asset holder would need to migrate and do so in a coordinated way.

“If you go talk to Bitcoin or Ethereum, it’s a bit more perplexing because of the really decentralized and kind of ad hoc participation. It seems like whenever I hear about it, it’s more like herding cats.”

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A sufficiently powerful quantum computer could theoretically break the public-key cryptography that underpins digital signatures and secure communications, threatening both blockchain wallets and core financial infrastructure. 

Post-quantum cryptography (PQC) is the proposed countermeasure, and the transition is already underway. The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) has urged organizations to begin preparing for “harvest now, decrypt later” threats, while US policy sets 2035 as the target for completing migration across federal systems.

The European Union is pushing high-risk systems to transition by 2030. Source: European Commission

Institutional governance is accelerating quantum upgrades

One place coordination may be easier is in institutional blockchain networks, where governance is tighter and the chain of authority is clearer.

Auh’s BOLT Technologies is running a pilot with the Canton Network to test a system that allows institutions to use and switch between multiple cryptographic signature schemes. Canton describes itself as an open blockchain for regulated institutions, designed to let participants exchange data and value without giving up privacy or control.

Canton is the leading network for recordkeeping of RWA tokens. Source: RWA.xyz

In regulated financial markets, infrastructure changes must meet internal controls, risk management standards, privacy requirements and interoperability demands across firms. 

Canton is built around those constraints, positioning itself as infrastructure for regulated institutions and a way to connect siloed financial systems without sacrificing control.

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In August 2024, NIST finalized its first set of post-quantum cryptography standards and explicitly urged system administrators to begin transitioning to them as soon as possible.

For regulated institutions, that kind of guidance makes delays harder to justify. Once migration becomes a recognized security and compliance issue, the networks most likely to move first are the ones that can turn technical advice into a managed operational process. Auh said that is one reason permissioned networks may be better positioned to move first. 

“Because of their governance structure, you only need a few people there who are very knowledgeable to understand what’s going on,” he said. “And then because their governance is a lot quicker and a lot more organized, you can make those changes quicker.”

That does not mean permissioned networks have solved the post-quantum problem. It means they may be better equipped to test, approve and stage upgrades under real-world constraints. 

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Related: Banks will run RWAs on two blockchain rails, says RedStone co-founder

Coordination slows quantum upgrades on public networks

Public blockchains face a different coordination problem because major protocol changes cannot be approved by a small governing group. 

On Bitcoin, protocol changes are suggested through the Bitcoin Improvement Proposal (BIP) process, and the project’s own documentation says that “acceptance and adoption rests with the Bitcoin users.”

That makes a system-wide cryptographic migration harder to stage on public chains than on permissioned ones.

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BIP 360 proposes a new output type designed to move the network toward quantum-resistant transaction structures. Source: Github

Given these coordination constraints, a post-quantum upgrade may require more disruptive upgrade paths, including a hard fork.

“I think it’s a very difficult thing to do with a soft fork,” he said. “They’re going to have to take the bitter medicine at some point and do a hard fork.

I know that it’s very traumatic for something like Bitcoin.”

On Ethereum, core changes move through the EIP process, where authors are expected to build consensus within the community and document dissenting opinions.

Ethereum’s governance documentation describes a process involving multiple stakeholder groups, including node operators, validators and EIP authors, while the AllCoreDevs process exists to coordinate technical work across contributors from different organizations.

Related: Are quantum-proof Bitcoin wallets insurance or a fear tax?

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The real challenge in quantum migration is coordination

The post-quantum transition is often framed as a technical race to find the right cryptography, but the harder question may be whether a network can carry out the migration at all.

Auh said the industry should spend less time trying to predict the exact arrival of a cryptographically relevant quantum computer — often called “Q-Day” — and more time thinking about whether blockchain networks are structurally capable of responding. 

“The recognition of the risk should spur you into action,” he said, arguing that preparation matters more than timeline guessing.

For permissioned blockchains, that process can be channeled through tighter governance, formal approval paths and institutional pressure to act. For public chains, the same migration has to pass through a wider and slower process shaped by developers, client teams, wallet providers and users.

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General investors are more likely to focus on post-quantum readiness for networks like Bitcoin and Ethereum, whose growth has tracked the broader industry, though views on the risk remain split. Jefferies strategist Christopher Wood removed Bitcoin from a model portfolio, citing quantum concerns, while Blockstream CEO Adam Back has said the threat may still be decades away.

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