As the Middle East conflict intensifies, rising oil prices may embolden Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, impacting global energy markets and Russia-China relations while influencing Putin’s strategy and concerns.

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Key Points

• As the Middle East conflict escalates, Russia’s aggression in Ukraine may increase, driven by rising oil prices and evolving energy market dynamics, impacting Russia-China relations.
• The recent killing of Iranian leader Khamenei heightens Putin’s paranoia, as he fears being targeted next. This incident may embolden Russia to intensify its war in Ukraine, despite long-term outcomes remaining uncertain.
• Global energy instability from Middle Eastern tensions, including struggles over oil exports, presents Russia with potential advantages in financing its ongoing conflict while fostering deeper ties with China.

The current escalation of the Middle East conflict has significant implications for Russia’s ongoing aggression in Ukraine, catalyzed by rising oil prices and shifting global energy dynamics, particularly influencing the relationship between Russia and China. Despite the geographical distance of approximately 2,500 kilometers, the intensifying Middle East conflict could encourage the Kremlin to adopt a more aggressive stance in Ukraine. However, this short-term boldness is unlikely to lead to a decisive advantage for Russia in the long term.

The potential targeted assassination of Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei by a US military strike serves as a stark reminder of past geopolitical actions, prompting memories for Russian President Vladimir Putin of his emotional reaction to the 2011 killing of Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi. Online commentary from Russian nationalist figures highlights a sense of vulnerability among Russian allies, with fears that similar fates could await them. This situation exacerbates Putin’s already precarious position as he navigates between paranoia and indignation regarding the strike on Khamenei, leading him to express outrage without directly confronting the US’s role.

Moreover, the violence in the Middle East presents Russia with advantageous opportunities, primarily through the substantial increase in oil prices. This surge not only enhances Moscow’s financial resources for its military endeavors but also complicates China’s energy dependence on Iran, which has historically made up over 80% of its oil imports. As China holds large oil reserves, it is likely to strengthen its energy ties with Russia amid ongoing regional instability.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian military actions against Gulf oil facilities further complicate global energy markets, affecting a significant portion of global oil and liquefied natural gas trade. The overall landscape suggests that as the Middle East conflict unfolds, and with Russia’s cautious yet aggressive posture towards Ukraine, the ramifications for international relations, particularly between Russia and its energy allies, will be profound and multifaceted.

Read the original article : What the conflict in Iran means for Putin and Ukraine

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In a volatile global environment marked by elevated crude prices and geopolitical uncertainty, the Indian government’s decision to cut excise duties on fuel is being viewed by market participants as a proactive step to contain inflation and support demand. Deven Choksey, MD, DRChoksey FinServ Pvt. Ltd believes the move reflects timely intervention, much like the policy responses seen during the COVID-19 crisis.

Responding to ET Now on whether it is premature to start factoring in earnings downgrades for Indian companies, Choksey suggested that the government’s actions could help soften the blow from global headwinds.

“I guess government should be complimented for acting in time. I guess they did so during the covid times, they are doing this activity of cutting down the excise on fuel at a time when entire world is desperate on other side. By way of cutting down the excise duties, they are ensuring few things. The consumer prices are not increasing, the fuel-related activities, as a result of which the inflationary pressure would remain under control. Though one may argue that on a fiscal deficit side it may have an impact of 35 to 40 bps from what it projected at 4.3, it could possibly go up to 4.7 if the full-year accounts are to be taken into account,” he said.

But suppose if this is a temporary measure, good credit should go to government that in advance time they are taking care of inflationary pressure, making sure that the corporates do not end up losing money and at the same time the consumer demand continues to remain buoyant. So, overall I believe that it is a welcome move, consumer benefits, OMCs benefits,” he added.

Relief for Consumers, Cushion for OMCs

A key question, however, is whether the benefits of the excise duty cut will be directly felt by consumers or primarily serve as a buffer for oil marketing companies (OMCs).
Choksey clarified that the impact is already indirectly benefiting consumers by preventing further price hikes.
“Yes, the point is important that if they are not increasing the price, that means effectively they have passed it on to the consumer. Otherwise, the OMCs have no choice but to increase the prices in the rising crude oil scenario. Now with this excise duty cut coming in their favour, they have a cushion of Rs 10 per litre on petrol and on diesel. They do not pass it on to the consumer and that is the benefit that the consumer gets eventually,” he explained.
Balancing Domestic Needs and Global Opportunities
The government has also raised export duties on petroleum products such as ATF, diesel, and petrol—a move that could potentially impact private refiners. However, Choksey views this as part of a broader balancing strategy.

“Even if it is increase in export duty, the price is still at parity level or slightly at the discounted level compared to the overall global prices. So, government is playing a balancing act according to me. On one side, when the global consumer is willing to pay the price, they are charging the price. On the other side, the domestic consumer should be protected, they are reducing the price. It is a perfect balancing act. Good credit goes to government for this again,” he noted.

Market Outlook: Panic Phase Likely Over
On the broader equity market outlook, Choksey indicated that the worst of the fear-driven selling may be behind us, with markets now awaiting positive triggers—particularly on the geopolitical front.

“The market has possibly completed the panic portion. I believe the fear factor is probably going out at this point of time. Entire market, including the global markets, is waiting for positive news to come on the war. Should it happen, then you will be seeing the upside which is unprecedented. So, in my viewpoint, instead of keeping the fear at the back of mind, I think that things are looking relatively more positive on prospects of war-related situation bringing up some positive news,” he said.

A Tactical Policy Move with Broader Implications
While concerns around fiscal slippage remain, the government’s decision appears to be aimed at preserving macroeconomic stability in the near term. By cushioning fuel prices, policymakers are attempting to protect both consumption and corporate margins—two critical pillars for sustaining economic growth.

For investors, the message seems clear: while global risks persist, domestic policy support and easing panic could provide a constructive backdrop for markets in the months ahead.

Mumbai: Investors with a higher risk appetite looking to bet on India’s top large-caps following the recent market sell-off may consider schemes tracking the Nifty Top 10 Equal Weight Index – a measure offering exposure to the top 10 stocks by market capitalisation.

The index’s recent underperformance compared to the broader benchmark Nifty presents a potential buying opportunity, according to fund officials and financial planners.

“Diversified portfolio across six key sectors, reasonable valuations, recent underperformance relative to the Nifty 50, and a margin of safety in mega caps are driving investor interest in this index,” said Anil Ghelani, head – Passive Investments and Products, DSP Mutual Fund.

The Nifty Top 10 equal-weight has lost 7.8% so far in March amid the West Asia conflict, compared with the Nifty’s decline of 7.4%. In 2026, the index shed 14.7% compared with the 10.9% fall in the Nifty, according to ETIG.

The recent underperformance was driven by foreign institutional selling of stocks here, with large-caps bearing the biggest brunt of their risk-off sentiment.

The index’s components include Infosys, Reliance Industries, ITC, TCS, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Axis Bank, Hindustan Unilever and Larsen & Toubro, and is rebalanced quarterly.”This fund works well for those who are comfortable with concentrated portfolios and not worried about short-term drawdowns,” said Anup Bhaiya, MD and CEO, Money Honey Financial Services.

The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of the Nifty Top 10 Equal Weight Index is 18.6 times compared with the Nifty’s 20.4 times. Ninety per cent of the portfolio is available at or below average valuations, as per the DSP MF study.

“Investors looking for passive exposure to large caps without actively tracking portfolios could consider staggering investments over the next three months,” said Nikhil Gupta, founder of Sage Capital.

While the index has delivered slightly higher returns than the Nifty 50 over the long term, its outperformance has not been consistent, beating the benchmark in just over half of the past 19 years. Over this period, it has delivered an annualised return of 13.3%, compared with 12.3% for the Nifty.