Crypto World
Why TRON price turned bearish even as Anchorage Digital added institutional TRX custody
- TRX dips despite Anchorage Digital enabling institutional custody.
- $0.309 is the key support, with $0.3189 acting as the immediate resistance.
- Market awaits active institutional adoption to boost TRX price.
TRON (TRX) has seen a slight dip to around $0.309, even as news broke that Anchorage Digital, the only crypto firm with a US federal banking charter, will add institutional TRX custody.
On the surface, this might seem contradictory since institutional adoption is usually bullish for digital assets.
But TRX’s price action suggests the market is not always immediately responsive to structural developments.
What Anchorage Digital’s move means for TRON
Anchorage Digital’s integration of TRON into its platform gives US institutional investors a regulated avenue to store, manage, and potentially stake TRX.
It is also part of a phased rollout, with plans including TRC‑20 token support and native staking.
From a technical standpoint, this is a strong signal of growing infrastructure and trust around TRON.
It lowers barriers for institutions that previously faced compliance or custody challenges.
In theory, such developments should increase demand for TRX and push the price upward.
However, markets often take time to internalise these structural changes.
Understanding the current bearish trend
There are likely several reasons for the temporary bearishness.
First, broader crypto market trends have been mixed, with key assets showing minor declines over the past 24 hours as oil rises over $110.
Second, some traders may be waiting for confirmation that institutions are actively using the custody service before entering positions.
Finally, TRX is facing a strong resistance near $0.3189, and on the lower side, there is a strong support around $0.3090 that, if broken, could trigger further downward pressure toward $0.3012.
Going by these levels, it is evident that the TRX price is currently bound in a narrow range, reflecting a period of consolidation.
What to expect over the weekend
While the short-term trend may seem bearish, the institutional integration remains a positive signal.
If adoption by institutions picks up, it could unlock new price ranges for TRX in the coming weeks.
The market may also respond to growing stablecoin activity on the TRON network, which highlights its ongoing utility.
For now, traders should watch for a breakout on either side of the current consolidation range.
A breakout above $0.3189 would confirm the continuation of its recent bullish momentum, while a break below $0.3090 would mean the beginning of a pullback after weeks of bullish trend that has seen it gain over 8%.
Update (March 27, 2026, 10:52 am UTC: This article has been updated to include comments from Shawn Young, chief analyst at MEXC Research.
US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) logged $171 million in outflows on Thursday, their biggest day of redemptions since March 3, when they posted $348 million in outflows.
BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) led the outflows with $41 million, Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) followed with $32 million, the ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) sold $30.5 million, and Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust ETF (GBTC) sold $24 million, according to data from Farside Investors.
The outflows follow a period of demand for Bitcoin ETFs, which attracted $1.36 billion in monthly inflows so far in March and are on track for their first month of net accumulation since October 2025, when ETFs clocked $3.42 billion in net inflows, according to Sosovalue data.
US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs are a signal of institutional demand for Bitcoin (BTC), which fell below the $70,000 mark on Thursday. BTC fell 4.7% over the past week and traded at $67,780 at the time of writing, according to CoinMarketCap.
The $171 million in outflows signals that Bitcoin ETF investors are “beginning to pull back” and hedge against geopolitical escalations in the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, Shawn Young, chief analyst at MEXC Research, told Cointelegraph, but added that net ETF flows remained positive since the beginning of the conflict.
Still, Bitcoin ETFs are just “one good day away” from reversing their year-to-date outflows, said senior Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, who praised the ETFs for their “incredible fortitude” amid Bitcoin’s 46% correction from the $126,198 all-time high in October 2025.
“For context, when gold fell 40% in a short time frame about 10 years ago, it saw 1/3 of its investors bail,” said Balchunas in a Tuesday X post.
Related: Morgan Stanley files amended S-1 for MSBT Bitcoin ETF
Investors fear weekend war escalation
The Bitcoin ETF sell-off follows reports that the US Department of Defense is sending thousands of soldiers to the Middle East, sources familiar with the matter told Reuters on Tuesday.
On Thursday, US President Donald Trump announced an extension to the ceasefire on Iranian energy infrastructure by 10 days to April 6, citing constructive ongoing negotiations.
Despite the announcement by Trump, market participants remain worried about another unexpected weekend escalation, Kyle Rodda, senior financial analyst at Capital.com, told Cointelegraph. He said:
“Amidst the headline risk and he-said, she-said games about whether negotiations between the US and Iran are taking place, the US is moving assets and personnel towards the Middle East to prepare for what looks like a limited ground invasion.”
Investors are jittery about any potential escalation after being caught off guard by the initial US and Israeli strikes on Iran on Feb. 28, which occurred in the middle of constructive negotiations, Rodda added.
Magazine: Bitcoin’s ‘biggest bull catalyst’ would be Saylor’s liquidation — Santiment founder
Michael Saylor quoted a CNBC TV anchor who repeated his marketing spiel about STRC on live television.
On Thursday’s edition of CNBC’s Power Lunch, Saylor was asked by host Brian Sullivan, “Am I offending you if I call it a money market fund?”
Sullivan was referencing Strategy’s publicly-traded STRC, a 11.5% dividend-paying preferred share that is definitely not a money market fund.
Saylor, who’s spent months likening his uninsured STRC to insured savings products like FDIC-insured bank accounts and SIPC-insured money markets happily agreed.
“It’s meant to be like a money market,” Saylor replied, continuing months of misleading statements about the shares that are supposed to trade near $100 yet have traded beneath $93.50 on 10 separate days.
He later tweeted the clip, declaring that his company’s digital credit products are somehow “redefining” yield.
Unfortunately, STRC is paying 11.5% for a reason, mostly because Strategy hasn’t been able to lower that rate and sustain demand for STRC’s share price near its intended $100 stated amount.
STRC is also nothing like a money market fund, and according to Bloomberg, 80% of STRC buyers have been retail investors, rather than sophisticated institutions.
Read more: Strategy is paying credit card rates to keep STRC at $100
STRC versus an actual money market fund
Unlike a money market fund, Strategy isn’t required to hold full assets to back STRC’s par value, has no bid in the Nasdaq market to support its share price, isn’t required to maintain any particular pricing value of investors’ principal, and has no liquidity requirement to support redemptions.
SEC-registered money market funds must comply with Rule 2a-7 and its liquidity minimums and asset diversification rules.
Money markets maintain stable net asset values by investing in short-term, high-quality debt.
STRC, in contrast, doesn’t comply with money market regulations and invests in one of the most volatile assets in history, bitcoin (BTC).
Unlike a money market fund, STRC pays a dividend from a company with a junk “B-” credit rating from S&P analysts. That same company reported a $12.4 billion net loss in a single quarter.
US money market funds carry SIPC protections when purchased through a registered US brokerage. Bank money market accounts carry FDIC insurance. STRC carries no insurance.
Strategy itself admitted on page 90 of its earnings presentation that STRC isn’t a money market fund.
The company conceded that it’s “not required to hold any assets to back the STRC Stock.” That disclosure didn’t stop Saylor and Sullivan from floating the comparison on national television.
Nor did it stop Saylor from enthusiastically agreeing.
$100 or $90.52 per share, depending on the day
Money market funds shouldn’t lose more than 7% of their value in a few hours. STRC has, repeatedly.
The stock fell to $90.52 in November 2025 and to $93.10 in February 2026. Strategy hiked its dividend rate seven times since launch to encourage secondary trading closer to $100.
Its dividend rate, which started at 9% in July 2025, now sits at 11.5%, a 250 basis point increase.
Meanwhile, BTC trades near $66,000, well below Strategy’s average purchase cost of $75,694 per coin. The company’s entire BTC operation has lost money since inception, while MSTR common stock has declined 74% from its November 2024 high.
Saylor told Sullivan that BTC needs to appreciate just 2% a year to cover STRC’s dividends forever.
However, he conveniently omitted that his model only works for MSTR shareholders if BTC rallies 30% annually, a forecast he has repeated for years but that BTC’s five-year annualized return hasn’t delivered.
Indeed, Saylor has compared STRC to insured products for months.
He described it on CNBC as “a bank that pays you 20% interest.” On an earnings call, he recommended STRC “for your family treasury.”
Incredibly, STRC raised over $1.18 billion in a single week this month, suggesting that comparisons like Sullivan’s are working exactly as intended.
Sullivan’s framing of STRC as a money market fund may have been casual. For the retail investors buying STRC on the basis of these comparisons, the difference between a money market fund and a junk-rated perpetual preferred stock is anything but.
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In this video, we’ll explore the key economic events and market trends, shaping the financial landscape. Get ready for insights into financial markets to help you navigate the week ahead. Let’s dive in!
In this episode of Market Insights, Gary Thomson breaks down what moved the markets over the past few days and unpacks the strategic implications of the most critical events driving global markets.
👉 Key topics covered in this episode:
✔️ What Happened in the Markets Over the Past Few Days
US-Iran tensions are fueling market uncertainty, with shifting headlines, mixed negotiation signals, and no clear resolution. Oil remains volatile, and equities reflect fragile sentiment rather than a trend. Will markets find direction, or will uncertainty keep prices unstable?
✔️ US Retail Sales
US Retail Sales data on 1 April could signal shifts in consumer demand, following weak growth in recent months and a decline in January. The US dollar may react sharply if the new figures diverge from expectations. Will retail sales show a rebound, or continue the trend of weakening consumer demand?
✔️ US Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
US Nonfarm Payrolls and the Unemployment Rate on 3 April could reveal whether the labour market is weakening or stabilising, after February’s 92,000-job loss and a rise in unemployment to 4.4%. Will the data show further deterioration, or a surprising rebound in US employment?
In summary, next week markets face a balance between elevated volatility from geopolitical risks and potential direction from upcoming macroeconomic data.
Gain insights to strengthen your trading knowledge.
💬 Don’t forget to like, comment, and subscribe for more market insights every week.
Watch it now and stay updated with FXOpen.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Crypto World
Swiss DeFi Infrastructure Provider THORWallet Expands into Asia, Targeting South Korea’s Crypto Market
Swiss-based DeFi infrastructure provider THORWallet is expanding into Asia, with South Korea emerging as a key focus market for its mobile-first crypto platform.
The company, known for its non-custodial wallet that integrates decentralized finance services with traditional banking features, says the move reflects growing demand in Asia for tools that connect centralized crypto markets with global DeFi liquidity.
South Korea is widely considered one of the most active retail crypto markets globally, with millions of traders and some of the highest digital asset participation rates in the world.
Swiss Banking Meets Decentralized Finance
One of THORWallet’s distinguishing features is the integration of Swiss banking functionality directly within a non-custodial crypto wallet.
Eligible users can access a Swiss IBAN, a multi-currency account, and a global payment card, allowing them to move between crypto assets, decentralized finance, and traditional financial infrastructure within a single interface.
The company believes this hybrid approach may appeal to users in Asia seeking more seamless ways to connect digital assets with everyday financial services.
“Many crypto users want access to both DeFi and traditional financial rails without giving up custody of their assets,” said Marcel Harmann, founder of THORWallet. “Combining a non-custodial wallet with banking functionality helps close that gap.”
Positioning as DeFi Infrastructure
THORWallet positions its platform as DeFi infrastructure rather than a traditional crypto wallet, aiming to serve as a gateway through which users and applications can access decentralized liquidity networks.
The mobile wallet has processed more than $1.5 billion in cross-chain swap volume, highlighting its role as an active interface connecting users to decentralized liquidity protocols.
THORWallet integrates cross-chain liquidity networks such as THORChain, Maya Protocol, and NEAR Intents, enabling users to swap native assets across different blockchains without relying on wrapped tokens or centralized bridges.
As liquidity continues to fragment across multiple chains, cross-chain swaps—such as exchanging Bitcoin for Ether across networks—are becoming an increasingly important component of the broader DeFi ecosystem.
By connecting directly to decentralized liquidity networks, THORWallet allows users to access cross-chain trading functionality via a mobile interface while retaining full custody of their assets.
Mobile Access to Global Liquidity
The company has focused heavily on mobile design, reflecting the view that the next wave of DeFi adoption will depend on simplifying complex blockchain interactions for everyday users.
This approach aligns with usage patterns in South Korea, where a significant share of cryptocurrency trading already takes place via mobile applications.
“Our goal is to provide a simple gateway that allows users to move from centralized exchanges into global DeFi liquidity,” Harmann added.
South Korea as a Strategic Entry Point
South Korea has long been one of the most influential cryptocurrency markets globally. Local exchanges such as Upbit and Bithumb consistently rank among the largest platforms by trading volume, and the country is home to millions of active retail traders.
Despite high participation, much of the activity remains concentrated on centralized exchanges, while access to decentralized finance tools is still relatively limited for many users.
THORWallet sees an opportunity to position its platform as a mobile gateway between centralized exchange liquidity and global DeFi infrastructure.
The company identifies South Korea as a strategic entry point for its broader expansion across Asia, where crypto adoption continues to grow and retail participation remains strong.
Asia is widely viewed as one of the most dynamic regions for cryptocurrency innovation, with major user bases across markets such as South Korea, Japan, Singapore, and Taiwan.
“We see Korea as an important starting point,” Harmann said. “From there, we plan to expand further across Asia as demand grows for mobile access to decentralized financial infrastructure.”
Growing Demand for Cross-Chain Infrastructure
As the digital asset ecosystem expands across multiple blockchains, demand for solutions enabling native cross-chain liquidity and interoperability continues to increase.
THORWallet positions itself as a mobile interface connecting users to decentralized cross-chain liquidity networks, with a long-term strategy focused on building infrastructure that allows interaction with multiple blockchains, financial services, and liquidity sources through a single platform.
The post Swiss DeFi Infrastructure Provider THORWallet Expands into Asia, Targeting South Korea’s Crypto Market appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Crypto World
Major volatility in Pi Network price as bulls eye $0.28 with technicals turning cautious into key March upgrades
Pi Network price is stalling near $0.18 as bearish models flag a possible drop toward $0.14, even as mainnet upgrades, a DEX launch and a Consensus 2026 push aim to anchor real‑world Web3 use.
Summary
- Pi Network’s PI token is trading around $0.18 today, down roughly 4.68% over the last 24 hours and underperforming a broader crypto market drop of about 3.56%.
- With PI changing hands near $0.1795 and facing a projected 23.23% downside toward $0.1384 in the next five days, technical models classify the current setup as bearish despite neutral RSI readings.
- The move comes as Pi Network rolls out major node and mainnet upgrades, prepares a DEX launch and secures a Consensus 2026 sponsorship, shifting the project narrative toward real‑world utility and Web3 integration.
Pi Network’s PI (PI) token, the native asset of the mobile‑first smart contract and payments ecosystem, is trading at about $0.1795 today after losing 4.68% in the last 24 hours, extending a pullback from this month’s high near $0.2850.
CoinCodex data shows PI underperformed the broader crypto market, which declined 3.56% over the same period, while PI also dropped 2.65% against BTC and 2.01% versus ETH, reflecting relative weakness across pairs. According to CoinLore, the first recorded exchange rate for PI on its platform was $0.7821, with a cycle low at $0.1317 in February 2026 and a historic high above $3.00, placing the current price roughly 77% below that initial print but still 36% above the February low. Functionally, PI is positioned as a layer‑1 smart contract and payments token aimed at bringing everyday users into Web3 via mobile mining, app‑layer utility and, increasingly, real‑world financial integration.
Pi Network price tests $0.18 support as March upgrades meet bearish models
From a technical perspective, short‑term signals are leaning defensive. CoinCodex’s March 26 update expects PI to fall to $0.138387 by April 1, 2026, implying a 23.23% decline from today’s levels and summarizing the current outlook as bearish. The same dashboard shows PI trading at $0.179471 with a 14‑day RSI of 51.09, a neutral reading that suggests neither deep oversold conditions nor overbought exhaustion, while most short‑term moving averages—from the 3‑day MA at $0.1973 to the 50‑day MA at $0.1826—are flashing sell signals. Structurally, PI remains above the 200‑day simple moving average at $0.269050, which CoinCodex interprets as a longer‑term bullish trendline despite the near‑term bearish bias in the next‑five‑days forecast.
The project’s fundamentals are evolving in parallel with the price chop. AInvest’s March 1 analysis notes that Pi Network is entering a critical phase in 2026, moving from experimental development to real‑world utility with infrastructure upgrades and ecosystem expansion explicitly designed to support financial integration and practical applications. CoinMarketCap’s latest Pi update details several key milestones: completion of the mainnet Protocol 20.2 upgrade on March 18, 2026, which lays the foundation for smart contract functionality; a major node upgrade roadmap targeting version 23.0 by May; and a sponsorship at Consensus 2026 in Miami, including a 20‑minute main‑stage session that will spotlight Pi and artificial intelligence alongside sponsors such as Grayscale and Google Cloud. Separately, MEXC’s February 17 report frames March 12, 2026—the activation date for Pi DEX and related liquidity infrastructure—as a “decisive” turning point for the ecosystem, emphasizing that successful execution will be treated as a confidence event by users and developers monitoring throughput, stability and engagement.
These network‑level developments highlight a familiar tension between narrative and tape. On one hand, Pi Network is signaling a shift toward concrete utility—through protocol upgrades, DEX activation and high‑profile conference exposure—just as the broader market increasingly rewards projects with real‑world use cases over pure speculative hype. On the other hand, CoinCodex’s bearish near‑term projection and the dense cluster of “sell” signals across key moving averages underline the risk that, absent clear evidence of adoption and on‑chain liquidity growth, PI’s price could retest lower support closer to the $0.14 area before any durable repricing can take hold.
Quick Overview
- Umbra introduces encrypted wallet for confidential Solana transactions
- Platform supports private swaps and shielded blockchain operations
- Privacy solution targets mainstream users seeking encrypted onchain finance
- Wallet incorporates compliance features alongside privacy protections
- Solution powered by Arcium’s secure execution infrastructure
Umbra has introduced a privacy-oriented wallet for Solana, broadening availability of encrypted blockchain transactions. The launch brings confidential transfers, private swaps, and built-in compliance mechanisms to users. In doing so, Umbra establishes itself as a functional privacy solution for regular blockchain operations.
Umbra Delivers Confidential Transaction Features on Solana Network
Umbra allows users to transfer digital assets while concealing sender identity, recipient information, and transaction amounts. Additionally, the platform facilitates encrypted token swaps that mask trade volume and execution strategy. Thus, Umbra eliminates public exposure from standard onchain financial operations.
The solution is built upon Arcium’s infrastructure, which enables encrypted execution across blockchain transactions. This architecture permits computation on encrypted information without revealing sensitive transaction details. Consequently, Umbra preserves confidentiality across the complete transaction process.
Previous access was restricted during Arcium’s mainnet alpha phase launched in February. Now, Umbra extends its privacy capabilities to traders, institutional participants, and commercial entities worldwide. This expanded availability addresses rising interest in confidential blockchain technologies.
Secure Execution Technology Sets New Privacy Benchmarks
Umbra utilizes encrypted execution rather than conventional obfuscation techniques or intermediary-dependent privacy approaches. Transaction data remains inaccessible to all participants throughout processing. This framework enhances privacy while preserving trustless onchain verification.
The wallet incorporates compliance mechanisms including viewing keys, risk assessment tools, and geographic restrictions. These capabilities enable controlled transparency while meeting regulatory obligations. Umbra achieves equilibrium between privacy protection and compliance adherence.
Umbra emphasizes accessibility through an intuitive interface designed for everyday transactions. The system prioritizes straightforward usability without sacrificing encryption strength. Umbra accommodates both sophisticated users and mainstream ecosystem adoption.
Development Tools and Growing Market Traction
Umbra has additionally unveiled a software development kit to facilitate encrypted application development on Solana. This resource empowers developers to create privacy-centric services utilizing zero-knowledge technologies. Consequently, Umbra reinforces its standing within the expanding privacy infrastructure sector.
Multiple integrations are anticipated in upcoming weeks as developers implement the framework. These implementations may broaden encrypted finance applications across decentralized platforms. Umbra advances overall ecosystem maturation on Solana.
The initiative previously raised over $150 million via MetaDAO, drawing participation from more than 10,000 contributors. This capital injection demonstrates substantial early enthusiasm for privacy-enabled financial instruments. Umbra therefore enters the marketplace with significant financial support and increasing appetite for encrypted blockchain capabilities.
Bitcoin (BTC) dropped toward $67,000 during the European trading session on Friday despite an increase in long-term buying. Exchange withdrawals also increased to 16-month highs, suggesting reduced “immediate selling pressure,” a new analysis said.
Key takeaways:
-
Bitcoin withdrawals from exchanges increases, reducing BTC available for sale.
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Long-term holders accelerate accumulation, adding 155,450 BTC over the past 30 days.
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Bitcoin analysts view $65,000–$66,000 as a potential support zone for a bounce.
Bitcoin supply tightens as long-term buying accelerates
CryptoQuant’s exchange flow data highlighted “renewed signs of supply tightening,” as large Bitcoin withdrawals continue across major exchanges.
The chart below shows that investors withdrew nearly $1.6 billion of BTC from Bitfinex on March 16, as shown by the orange bar in the chart below.
Related: Bitcoin floor ‘near $70K’ as TradFi returns: Will war, inflation break their belief?
Since then, the trend has expanded across other major exchanges, with a $678 million withdrawal from OKX on Sunday, a $728 million withdrawal from Kraken on Monday, and another $400 million in BTC leaving Binance on Wednesday.
“This pattern suggests that the latest wave of withdrawals is no longer isolated to one platform,” CryptoQuant analyst Amr Taha said in his latest QuickTake analysis.
The figures support the latest data showing Bitcoin whales and sharks have been accumulating over the last two months, a pattern that could trigger an eventual breakout from the range.
Other data also reflects an accumulation phase, as long-term holders (LTHs), investors who have held Bitcoin for more than 155 days, ramped up buying.
The LTH net position change has been positive since March 5, as about 155,450 BTC has been bought over the past 30 days.
In other words, holders are buying more on the dips, including the latest one below $68,000.
When Bitcoin leaves exchanges while LTHs expand their positions, it “usually signals lower immediate sell pressure and stronger conviction from investors with a longer time horizon,” Amr Taha said.
If this trend continues, the market could be entering another phase where tightening sell-side liquidity and stronger LTH demand “create a more supportive backdrop for price,” the analyst added.
Bitcoin price to revisit $65,000 before bounce
As Cointelegraph reported, $70,000 remains the key for the Bitcoin bulls and that losing it could trigger the next leg down.
The BTC/USD pair was trading below $67,000 at the time of writing, below the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) and the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA).
Bears will attempt to push the price toward the $65,000-$63,300 demand zone, with a deeper focus on the range low below $60,000, reached on Feb. 6.
“It’s quite clear that there’s not enough strength for the markets to move higher after that rejection at $75K,” MN Capital founder Michael van de Poppe said in a recent X post.
An accompanying chart suggested that the price was seeking to print a higher low within the $65,000 to $66,000 range, failing which “we’ll start to see an acceleration downwards,” van de Poppe said, adding:
“I would be looking at longs in the lower-$60K range.”
The Glassnode liquidity heatmap highlighted “stronger” whale bid orders near $65,000, suggesting that the BTC price could retest this area before a bounce.
As Cointelegraph reported, a break and close below the ascending trend line at $68,000 could result in Bitcoin price dropping toward $60,000, where it could consolidate next.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
Key Takeaways
- On Friday, Hedgeye initiated a short position on AppLovin (APP), projecting a 30% downward move.
- Andrew Freedman from Hedgeye contends that MAX, the mediation platform, represents APP’s true advantage—not its AXON AI technology.
- MAX dominates more than 60% of worldwide mobile gaming ad impressions, providing critical data that powers AXON’s capabilities.
- In markets beyond gaming where MAX lacks mediation control, AXON’s performance shows significant variability.
- The firm characterizes APP as an “infrastructure monopoly” that faces mounting competitive threats while generating unsustainable margins.
AppLovin (APP) shares declined 1% Friday following Hedgeye’s announcement of a new short position on the stock, with the research firm projecting as much as 30% downside from present price levels.
Andrew Freedman, an analyst at Hedgeye, released the bearish thesis, challenging the prevailing market narrative surrounding the company’s valuation.
Freedman’s central contention is that market participants have fundamentally misunderstood AppLovin’s business model. Rather than being an artificial intelligence powerhouse as many believe, Hedgeye argues the company’s real strength originates from a different source.
“The primary competitive advantage for AppLovin isn’t AXON, its machine learning technology,” Freedman stated. “Rather, it’s MAX, the mediation infrastructure commanding more than 60% of global mobile gaming ad impressions.”
MAX functions as AppLovin’s advertising mediation infrastructure. Positioned between game developers and advertising buyers, it orchestrates the bidding mechanism for ad inventory within mobile gaming applications.
Given MAX’s commanding position in mobile gaming ad auctions, it accumulates an extensive repository of exclusive bidding intelligence. This proprietary data stream, according to Freedman, is the critical ingredient enabling AXON’s predictive accuracy.
“AXON’s effectiveness diminishes substantially without access to MAX’s data,” the analyst noted.
Performance Challenges Beyond Gaming Territory
The analysis spotlights a significant vulnerability in AppLovin’s diversification strategy. Beyond mobile gaming boundaries, MAX doesn’t maintain mediation dominance—creating a substantially different competitive landscape.
In these alternative sectors, AXON must function without the comprehensive data infrastructure it leverages within gaming environments. Freedman’s research indicates performance outcomes vary considerably under these conditions.
This observation carries weight because AppLovin has aggressively pursued expansion into e-commerce and additional non-gaming categories. Should AXON prove unable to duplicate its gaming success in other verticals, the company’s expansion narrative faces serious challenges.
Current short interest in AppLovin stands at merely 4.5%, indicating the broader market maintains a predominantly optimistic outlook.
Valuation Concerns From Hedgeye
Freedman characterized AppLovin as representing “an infrastructure monopoly narrative”—though his tone was decidedly cautionary.
According to Hedgeye’s assessment, this monopolistic position faces increasing competitive pressure, while the company currently benefits from profit margins that exceed sustainable levels. This suggests the differential between AppLovin’s present earnings and long-term capability may be larger than market participants recognize.
While Hedgeye hasn’t published a precise price objective corresponding to its 30% downside forecast, the analysis implies substantial repricing risk should investors reconsider the AI-related valuation premium.
APP shares have surged 48% during the trailing twelve months, adding substantial market capitalization throughout this period.
Friday’s modest 1% pullback appears relatively insignificant against the backdrop of that extended rally, though Hedgeye’s detailed critique introduces a noteworthy contrarian perspective to what has predominantly been an analyst community expressing bullish sentiment.
With short interest remaining at 4.5%, there isn’t yet substantial positioning against AppLovin—however, Hedgeye has now established one of the most thoroughly articulated bearish arguments on the stock to emerge publicly.
US Representatives Max Miller and Steven Horsford published a discussion draft bill on Thursday titled the ‘‘Digital Asset Protection, Accountability, Regulation, Innovation, Taxation, and Yields Act’’ or the ‘‘Digital Asset PARITY Act,” to overhaul the tax code for digital assets.
The Digital Asset PARITY Act seeks to overhaul the Internal Revenue Code of 1986 by adding provisions that would clarify the tax treatment of digital assets.
The legislation said that stablecoins are not subject to gains if the cost basis, or the amount paid by the investor, does not fluctuate by more than 1% of $1 or $0.01, according to the discussion draft.
Transaction costs incurred to acquire or move regulated dollar-pegged stablecoins cannot be counted toward an investor’s cost basis, according to the bill.
The bill also introduces a de minimis tax exemption for stablecoin transactions below $200, meaning that stablecoin transactions below the $200 threshold do not trigger tax or reporting requirements. A total annual exemption cap is yet to be determined.
Income from lending, staking or income earned through “passive” validator services is treated as part of the recipient’s gross income every year, and calculated using “fair market” value, the draft said.
The Digital Asset PARITY Act has not yet been introduced to Congress; it was published as a discussion draft to open up debate between lawmakers, stakeholders and the crypto industry about how to overhaul crypto tax policy in the US.
Related: Coinbase execs deny lobbying against Bitcoin de minimis tax exemption
Crypto tax proposal highlights schism in the crypto industry
“We need digital asset tax clarity or activity will never fully onshore,” Cody Carbone, the CEO of crypto advocacy organization Digital Chamber, said in response to the discussion draft.
However, Bitcoiners noted that the bill includes only a de minimis tax exemption for stablecoins, not Bitcoin (BTC), similar to pending legislation, including the CLARITY crypto market structure bill, which also lacks a BTC de minimis tax exemption.
“This is the wrong direction to go in,” Pierre Rochard, CEO of The Bitcoin Bond Company, a BTC financial product issuer, said about the draft.
“It’s Bitcoin that should have a de minimis tax exemption. Stablecoins are not decentralized, and they are not permissionless. They’re not real money; they’re just fiat,” he added.
Magazine: How crypto laws changed in 2025 — and how they’ll change in 2026
Key Highlights
- Google is providing construction financing for a massive Texas data center currently under lease to Anthropic
- Nexus Data Centers’ project exceeds $5 billion, with construction loans nearing completion within weeks
- The sprawling 2,800-acre complex will initially provide approximately 500 megawatts by Q4 2026, with plans to scale up to roughly 7.7 gigawatts
- Independent gas turbines connected to local pipelines will power operations, minimizing reliance on public utilities
- Google’s robust financial standing is anticipated to attract bank financing at more favorable terms
According to recent reports, Google is preparing to extend construction loans to Nexus Data Centers for their ambitious $5 billion-plus data center development in Texas, a facility that Anthropic has already secured through a lease agreement.
The Financial Times initially broke the story, referencing sources familiar with the arrangement.
Finalization of these loans is anticipated within the next several weeks. While Alphabet, Google’s parent entity, won’t directly construct the infrastructure, the company is serving as the financial underwriter. Its excellent creditworthiness is expected to facilitate additional banking partnerships with more competitive interest rates.
Multiple banking institutions are currently vying to finance the initial construction phase, with funding targeted for mid-2025.
The computing facility spans an impressive 2,800 acres and aims to provide roughly 500 megawatts of processing capacity by the conclusion of 2026. In the longer term, expansion plans envision the site reaching approximately 7.7 gigawatts — representing significant infrastructure for artificial intelligence computational requirements.
Earlier this month, Anthropic formalized its lease arrangement with Nexus Data Centers.
Energy Independence Through Direct Power Generation
The facility’s strategic positioning between multiple major natural gas pipelines represents deliberate planning. Nexus intends to operate independent gas turbines for power generation instead of drawing from regional electrical grids.
This configuration allows the operation to avoid expensive peak-hour electricity rates — an escalating challenge for facilities operating energy-intensive AI processing continuously.
Additionally, this approach provides enhanced energy supply autonomy, which has become increasingly critical for large-scale data infrastructure developments.
Expanding the Google-Anthropic Alliance
Google currently provides Anthropic with specially engineered TPU infrastructure through Google Cloud for training sophisticated language models.
This collaboration creates mutual advantages. Anthropic receives essential large-scale computing resources, while Google leverages the partnership to enhance its Vertex AI offerings.
By financing the Texas computing complex, Google elevates its role beyond cloud services provider to become a direct infrastructure financier.
Specific financial terms of the construction loan arrangement — including total amount and repayment conditions — remain undisclosed to the public.
Nexus Data Centers has declined to provide official commentary. Anthropic finalized its lease with Nexus in recent weeks, preceding the anticipated loan completion in the near future.
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