Senator Elizabeth Warren has asked the US Commerce Department to explain how it is handling reported security concerns tied to Bitmain, the Chinese company that makes much of the world’s Bitcoin mining equipment. 

Her request adds to growing attention on foreign-made mining hardware used across the US crypto sector.

Bloomberg reported that Warren sent a letter on Thursday to Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick asking for documents and communications related to Bitmain and any steps the department has taken to address “potential national security concerns.” The report said the letter focused on how Commerce is handling the matter and whether political influence has affected those decisions.

The request follows months of reporting about federal scrutiny of the company. A national security inquiry into Bitmain remains unresolved, and the current status of that review is still unclear. The same report noted that cases of this type can continue for years without a public enforcement action.

The Department of Homeland Security opened a probe known as Operation Red Sunset to examine whether Bitmain’s mining machines could create espionage or sabotage risks. That review looked at whether the machines could be remotely accessed or used in ways that could threaten US systems.

Moreover, a May 2024 federal review raised “national security concerns” about Bitmain machines used near a US military base. 

Separately, Cambridge’s Digital Mining Industry Report said the ASIC mining hardware market is highly concentrated, with the top three manufacturers controlling more than 99% of market share and the largest vendor alone holding 82%.

Pressure on Bitmain has not been limited to the DHS review. In February 2025 US miners faced delivery delays after customs scrutiny affected Bitmain equipment shipments. TSMC halted shipments to Sophgo, a Bitmain-linked chip design firm, after a chip linked to Huawei was discovered. Later, the US added Sophgo to its trade blacklist.

These steps widened the focus from mining hardware alone to Bitmain’s broader business links. They also placed more attention on how Chinese crypto hardware suppliers interact with US trade and security policy.

Trump-linked mining ties add another layer

Bitmain also has business ties to American Bitcoin, a mining firm backed by Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr. The company agreed last year to acquire 16,000 Bitmain rigs for $314 million, according to securities filings cited by Bloomberg. Warren’s request seeks information on any communications involving Bitmain, Commerce officials, and Trump family interests.

At the same time, Bitmain has been building a larger US presence. In July 2025 the company planned its first US-based manufacturing site, with initial output expected in early 2026 and a broader ramp later in the year. That plan now sits beside an unresolved federal review and renewed political scrutiny in Washington.

Bitcoin (BTC) has given back much of its March momentum, dipping about 1.4% for the month and registering a roughly 24.6% drop for the first quarter of 2026. Market observers note that this retreat fits a longer-term drawdown pattern that could extend into the end of 2026, with many analysts projecting another roughly 40% slide from prior highs. If that path plays out, a sustained recovery might not arrive until 2027, shifting the timing of a new bull phase well into the next year.

Across on-chain and market indicators, the signal mix remains nuanced. While price action points to renewed selling pressure, some metrics suggest the market is not yet at historic bottom zones, leaving traders watching for clearer signs of capitulation before a bottom is confirmed.

Key takeaways

• Bitcoin’s drawdown deepens the uncertainty around the timing of a new cycle low, with potential relief not expected until late 2026 or 2027.
• The Bitcoin Combined Market Index (BCMI) sits near 0.27, well above past bottoms around 0.12–0.15, implying further downside could be needed to retrace to historical troughs.
• Historical data linking drawdown depth to recovery time suggests that a 40–60% decline can extend the path back to prior highs by many months.
• On-chain and liquidity-focused perspectives point to ongoing selling pressure from larger market participants, potentially prolonging the downturn before a durable bottom forms.
• A handful of macro- and policy signals—such as anticipated rate moves—could influence the pace of BTC’s recovery, reinforcing that the trajectory depends on both crypto dynamics and external factors.

Longer-cycle implications for BTC’s recovery window

Analysts highlight a pronounced link between how far Bitcoin falls and how long it takes to reclaim previous highs. Data from Ecoinometrics indicates that each additional 10% drop historically adds roughly 80 days to the time required to surpass prior peaks. With BTC down about 48% from its late-2025 highs, the implied recovery horizon stretches toward roughly 300 days from the October peak of around $126,000 in 2025. At the same time, about 172 days have elapsed in this cycle, suggesting approximately 125 to 130 more days if the cycle low lands near $60,000.

Even so, those cycle lows have not necessarily been definitively tagged, leaving open the possibility of further downside in the near term. The current picture is one of a protracted consolidation with macro volatility capable of reshaping the trajectory depending on policy and external demand drivers.

On-chain and market indicators complicate the bottoming process

On-chain analytics add nuance to the narrative. The Bitcoin Combined Market Index (BCMI), which aggregates MVRV, NUPL, SOPR and market sentiment, sits around 0.27. That level remains above the thresholds that have historically marked cycle bottoms since 2018, where bottom zones hovered near 0.15 or lower. In practical terms, BCMI’s current position suggests additional downside could be required to revisit historical lows, particularly if sell pressure persists across spot and futures markets.

From a liquidity perspective, commentary from market observers underscores a stubborn weakness in the broader BTC liquidity regime. The narrative centers on a persistent distribution by larger holders, a factor that can slow any swift rebound even in the face of favorable macro developments.

Analyst voices: cycles, capitulation, and macro context

“Larger players are selling into this structure harder than they have in 18 months. That does not mean price has to collapse immediately. But it does mean this level is being tested with real sell pressure pressing into it.”

That assessment comes from a well-known trader who tracks whale-to-retail dynamics, highlighting that the current setup is being tested by substantial selling pressure at key technical levels. The implication is not an imminent crash, but rather a test of supply-demand equilibrium under heavy participation from larger market players.

Another influential voice in the space has long emphasized a wider cycle narrative. A prominent liquidity-focused analyst had previously sketched a path where Bitcoin could rally to the mid-$70,000s, only to re-enter a bearish regime as overall market liquidity deteriorates, and the “bear” phase extends through the latter part of the decade. In this framework, a deeper capitulation could extend the cycle until a clearer bottom forms, with the recovery not taking hold until early 2027.

Within the same ecosystem, macro considerations loom large. A respected macro-focused publication recently noted that monetary policy expectations are shifting. A notable forecast referenced by market watchers suggested rate cuts might not arrive until late 2027, with a non-trivial probability that rates could rise by March 2027. The dynamic between policy expectations and liquidity conditions adds an additional layer of uncertainty to Bitcoin’s timing for a durable rebound.

These perspectives—whether anchored in on-chain signals, macro policy, or liquidity dynamics—underscore a common thread: the path to a new upside regime remains contingent on both the crypto market’s internal mechanics and the broader economic backdrop.

Related coverage has previously highlighted how shifts in on-chain metrics—such as supply in profit levels and other profit-and-loss indicators—can precede multi-fold moves in Bitcoin’s price. While not a guarantee, the interplay between investor behavior, realized versus market value, and macro stimuli remains a focal point for evaluating the next meaningful swing in BTC.

This synthesis reflects a cautious, data-driven view: Bitcoin’s next phase will depend on deeper capitulation signals, a rebalancing of on-chain metrics toward traditional bottoms, and a macro environment that gradually aligns with a renewed appetite for risk. Investors should monitor how the BCMI behaves relative to historical bottoms and watch for any decisive shifts in liquidity conditions and policy expectations as the year progresses.

This article does not constitute financial advice. Readers should conduct their own research and consider their risk tolerance before acting on market signals.

Top trending stories this week were centered on politics, market stress, geopolitics, memecoin chatter, and yield-focused positioning. 

Santiment social data showed that traders entered the weekend watching David Sacks’ White House transition, a fresh risk-off selloff, new tech security fears, “Memescope Monday,” and a broader move toward cash and income strategies.

David Sacks transition draws early attention

Santiment listed the David Sacks transition as one of the main stories in crypto discussion. Sacks stepped down from his White House AI and crypto role after reaching the 130-day limit for special government employees.

Moreover, Sacks is moving into a broader advisory role as co-chair of the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology. That shift moves him away from a direct crypto policy post and toward a wider technology brief.

Risk-off selling stays at the center of market talk

Santiment said traders spent Friday discussing another risk-off move across tech and crypto. Meta shares fell after jury verdicts raised concerns about new legal exposure, while separate market coverage showed ARK Invest using Kalshi prediction market data as a risk tool.

The same social theme also included worries around Circle and USDC after debate over stablecoin reward limits in the CLARITY Act. Recent market reporting said those concerns pushed Circle shares sharply lower earlier this week.

Geopolitics and AI security concerns widen the focus

Santiment said market nerves also rose as geopolitical tension and tech news collided. Oil prices rose on Friday as traders doubted the chances of a ceasefire in the Iran war, while social chatter tracked the effect on broader risk assets.

At the same time, concern around Anthropic’s “Claude Mythos” spread across markets. Leaked details described the model as Anthropic’s most powerful system so far, and market coverage showed cybersecurity stocks falling as investors reacted to those capabilities.

Memecoin hype and cash strategies round out the list

Santiment also said “Memescope Monday” became a viral social topic among traders looking for short-term momentum in memecoins and related protocols. The firm framed it as a retail-driven trend built on online attention rather than a formal policy or market event.

The final theme was “cash-and-yield.” Santiment said traders were discussing cash, stablecoins, options income, and tokenized yield as safer ways to manage uncertainty while war fears and rate pressure stayed in view.

XRP traded near $1.34 on March 28, with a 24-hour trading volume of about $2.24 billion and a market cap near $82.04 billion. 

Meanwhile, the token was down almost 1% on the day and 7% over the past week, leaving price action stuck in a narrow range as traders look toward April.

XRP’s slow price action has drawn attention because April has often been one of its stronger months. Recent market data cited by CryptoRank showed that XRP’s average April return stands at 24.8%, keeping seasonal expectations in focus even as the token enters the new month under pressure.

That backdrop has kept traders focused on whether XRP can repeat part of its earlier seasonal pattern. At the same time, current market data still shows weakness, with XRP underperforming the broader crypto market over the last seven days.

Market commentary around XRP remains split as price holds near support but fails to regain higher resistance. One analyst said, “Until $1.80 is reclaimed, every bounce is just a lower high,” while another recent market view described $1.80 as a key level that could shift momentum if buyers recover it on a sustained move.

On the downside, bearish scenarios still point to deeper support zones if the current structure fails. Recent market analysis has placed the next major downside area in the $1.00 to $1.20 range if selling pressure continues and XRP cannot rebuild strength above nearby resistance.

Binance data shows mixed signals

CryptoQuant data from analyst Arab Chain showed some improvement in XRP’s risk-adjusted returns on Binance. The 30-day average return was around 0.00063, while the Sharpe Ratio stood near 0.0267, a sign that returns were still outpacing risk, though only by a moderate margin.

That steadier reading came as leverage started to build again in the derivatives market. Separate CryptoQuant data cited by recent market coverage showed Binance open interest rising 15%, while repeated long liquidation events on March 18, March 21, and March 26 showed that bullish positioning remained fragile during volatility.

TLDR:

• BTC lost 67K support and confirmed a bear flag continuation with $49K as the first clean downside target.
• Stablecoin dominance breakout above 75.67 could strengthen the path toward the projected $38K BTC zone.
• ETH dropped 9.32% in two days as downside technical structure opened a potential move toward $1,000.
• Nasdaq, VIX, DXY, and crypto all flashed aligned breakdown signals across correlated risk markets.

Bitcoin slipped below the closely watched $67,000 pivot low before rebounding from $65,618, reviving a bearish chart structure that now points to deeper downside. 

The move coincided with renewed weakness across Ethereum, altcoins, and major equity futures, tightening correlations between crypto and traditional risk assets. 

Stablecoin dominance and volatility indicators also strengthened, reinforcing defensive positioning across the market. The latest technical breakdown now places $49,000 and $38,555 as the next major Bitcoin price levels in focus.

Bitcoin Price Bear Flag Breakdown Revives $38K Target

The latest market update shared by Aaron Dishner, known online as MooninPapa, outlined a clean bear flag continuation after BTC lost the 67K pivot.

According to the posted chart levels, Bitcoin’s first downside objective now sits at $49,000. The larger measured move extends to $38,555.

The move mirrors the same 38.73% decline structure tracked from the March 17 local high. Momentum indicators continue to align with that bearish setup.

Relative strength index data printed a lower local low, which kept downside momentum intact rather than signaling reversal conditions.

On-balance volume also crossed below its moving average, adding another layer of confirmation to the BTC price weakness.

Ethereum tracked the broader decline and fell 9.32% over the past two days, based on the same market breakdown. The reported structure now places $1,000 as a possible support zone.

Stablecoin dominance, combining USDT.D and USDC.D, broke above its bull flag formation in the same dataset. The February 24 high at 75.67 now acts as a critical trigger level.

If stablecoin dominance clears that level, the signal historically aligns with deeper crypto capitulation, placing the $38,000 Bitcoin zone in focus.

Crypto Market Selloff Spreads to Altcoins, Stocks, and Commodities

The broader crypto market structure also weakened as TOTALES, TOTALE50, and TOTALE100 all broke key support zones.

Those indices failed to produce any TBO reset, while RSI continued making lower lows across the tracked timeframes.

Among large-cap altcoins, XRP showed weakness near TBO support, with the referenced fair value gap beginning near $0.50.

Solana also rejected from a bear flag pattern, keeping the $30 target active in the shared technical map.

Several tokens, including AAVE, NEAR, VET, ETHFi, TWT, and EIGEN, printed TBO breakdown clusters in the same update.

Outside crypto, the U.S. dollar index broke short-term resistance in a bull flag structure on Friday, extending pressure on risk markets.

That move pushed USDJPY to 160.247, its highest level in two years, according to the provided macro data.

The VIX closed at 31.04, above Monday’s high, while S&P futures and Nasdaq both printed fresh TBO breakdowns.

Gold and silver diverged from the broader weakness, with both metals holding support after confirmed RSI resets in the same market snapshot.

Key Takeaways

• Seasoned analyst Peter Brandt identified a rising wedge pattern suggesting potential declines toward $60,000 or as low as $49,000.
• BTC experienced a 4%+ decline on March 27, settling in the $65,720–$66,030 range.
• Deribit’s $14.16 billion options settlement eliminated 40% of outstanding contracts and sparked more than $115 million in leveraged long liquidations.
• Escalating Middle East tensions between the U.S., Israel, and Iran are pushing capital flows toward the dollar and away from risk assets including Bitcoin.
• Market experts from CEX.IO and Bitget Wallet anticipate additional downward pressure, highlighting $60,000 as a critical threshold.

Bitcoin experienced a significant pullback on March 27, shedding more than 4% of its value to hover near $65,720 as mounting geopolitical uncertainties converged with the largest quarterly options settlement on record.

The selloff intensified as ongoing hostilities involving the United States, Israel, and Iran prompted market participants to rotate into traditional safe-haven assets, particularly the U.S. dollar. Iran’s continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz amplified market anxiety, despite conflicting reports from former President Trump suggesting limited oil tanker passage as a diplomatic concession.

Renowned market technician Peter Brandt shared analysis on X highlighting a developing rising wedge formation—a classic bearish reversal pattern. His technical projection identifies $60,000 as the immediate downside objective should the pattern complete.

In a follow-up post, Brandt presented an alternate scenario targeting $49,000 as a potential multi-month price floor for Bitcoin. He emphasized that BTC demonstrates stronger adherence to traditional technical analysis principles than most asset classes.

Brandt’s previous forecasts called for Bitcoin to breach the $50,000 level during the current market correction cycle. His recent commentary reinforces this bearish outlook.

Record Options Settlement Creates Market Turbulence

On March 27 at 08:00 UTC, leading derivatives exchange Deribit processed a massive $14.16 billion Bitcoin options expiration—the largest single settlement event in 2026. This represented approximately 40% of the platform’s total open interest being closed simultaneously.

The cascading effect triggered liquidations exceeding $115 million across leveraged long positions within just 60 minutes. Current data shows Bitcoin’s put-to-call ratio standing above 0.62, indicating a predominance of bearish positioning over bullish bets among derivatives traders.

Illia Otychenko, principal analyst at CEX.IO, characterized the current environment as bearish across both macroeconomic fundamentals and market sentiment. He cautioned that a breakdown below present channel support would likely catalyze a test of the $60,000 level.

Market Observers Anticipate Continued Volatility

Lacie Zhang, a research analyst with Bitget Wallet, noted that institutional players have systematically unwound bullish Bitcoin exposure throughout the quarter as part of yield-generation strategies. The expiration of these derivative positions removes a significant stabilizing force from the market structure.

Independent analyst Ted projects Bitcoin could breach $50,000 during Q2 2026 before potentially staging a sharp recovery toward $100,000 by year-end.

Zhang emphasized that Bitcoin must convincingly reclaim and sustain trading above $75,000 to restore positive momentum. Absent this development, she anticipates increasingly erratic price action with amplified volatility.

Surging crude oil valuations have driven the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield to its highest point since July 2025, further weighing on non-income-producing assets such as cryptocurrency.

Research analysts at Bernstein maintained their year-end Bitcoin price forecast of $150,000, pointing to historical patterns showing BTC outperformance relative to gold during periods of heightened global uncertainty.

The critical technical barrier for Bitcoin remains at $66,000. Technical analysts warn that a confirmed daily close beneath this support zone could accelerate downward momentum toward the $50,000 region.

Firelight said it is preparing an on-chain protection layer backed by staked XRP as DeFi projects face renewed security pressure. 

The plan follows a new milestone for the protocol, which said staked XRP on Firelight has now passed 50 million on Flare.

According to a press release, Firelight crossed 50 million staked XRP after a series of large deposits. The report said several whale deposits were above 1 million XRP each, while the protocol also expanded capacity for FXRP deposits.

Firelight operates on Flare’s FAssets system, where users deposit XRP, mint FXRP, and stake it in Firelight’s vault in return for stXRP. Firelight said stXRP can then move across the Flare ecosystem for other DeFi uses.

Firelight said the current vault is designed to pool capital for its DeFi Cover engine. In a recent protocol update, the team said the cover product is planned for Q2 and would track “Total Value Covered,” a measure tied to protected capital rather than deposited capital alone.

The protocol said the protection layer is meant to cover risks tied to smart contract failures, oracle issues, bridge exploits, and other economic vulnerabilities. Firelight expects this second phase to let other protocols buy protection backed by the staked FXRP pool.

Security demand rises as exploit losses build

Firelight linked the rollout to the pace of recent DeFi losses. Thefts tied to DeFi exploits in the first quarter of 2026 passed $137 million, while Firelight pointed to a recent stablecoin exploit that produced $23 million in unbacked tokens after a private key leak.

In its latest protocol note, Firelight said its vaults were audited by OpenZeppelin and Coinspect, and that the FAssets bridge also went through audits. The same update said the first 25 million FXRP deposit ceiling filled within six hours, and the raised 65 million FXRP cap moved past the halfway mark soon after.

Firelight said it is building the protection layer with Sentora. Sentora is an institutional DeFi intelligence platform formed through the merger of IntoTheBlock and Trident Digital.

The partnership places Firelight’s next phase around risk management as much as staking. For XRP holders on Flare, the plan would tie staking activity to a protection market that targets DeFi security failures across multiple risk categories.

• Legislative Scope: The Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act covers the president, vice president, all members of Congress, political appointees, and federal agency employees — with mandatory reporting of any contract wager exceeding $250 within 30 days.
• Penalty Structure: Violations carry fines up to double the amount of profits earned, targeting financial incentives directly rather than imposing flat regulatory penalties.
• Market Implication: Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket — which updated trading rules on March 23, 2026, to ban use of confidential information — now face potential CFTC scrutiny and mandatory compliance audits if either bill advances to markup.

P2P.me said it traded on a Polymarket contract tied to its own fundraising round before the raise went live. 

The disclosure adds fresh attention to insider trading risks on prediction markets as US lawmakers and platforms move to tighten rules.

The team behind the decentralized trading platform said it opened positions on Polymarket 10 days before its capital raise launched. The market asked whether the project would reach its $6 million target. At that time, the team said it had only one “oral commitment” from Multicoin Capital for $3 million, with “no signed term sheets” and “no guaranteed allocations.”

The raise later closed at $5.2 million, below the target, and the market resolved to “no.” The team said it understands why some people may see the trade as a trust issue, even though it did not view the bet as trading on a completed deal.

P2P.me said any profits from the positions will go back to its MetaDAO treasury, which serves as the reserve for the DAO that governs the platform. The team also said it is liquidating all open Polymarket positions and putting in place a formal company policy on prediction market trading.

In its statement, the team said, 

“Trading on an outcome you can influence erodes trust.” It added that “not disclosing at the time was a mistake we own.” 

Those remarks came as the platform moved to address criticism around market conduct and transparency.

Prediction markets face wider policy pressure

The disclosure comes as scrutiny around prediction markets grows in Washington and beyond. On March 25, Representatives Nikki Budzinski and Adrian Smith introduced the PREDICT Act, a bipartisan bill aimed at stopping senior government officials from insider trading on prediction markets.

At the same time, Polymarket and Kalshi have both announced tighter insider trading rules. Polymarket now says users cannot trade on contracts when they hold confidential information or can influence an outcome, while California barred state officials from using insider knowledge to bet on platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi. 

A separate Senate bill would ban event contracts tied to elections, sports, government actions, and military moves.